Why I think we will lose this game

If we win, it'll be with offense.

If you're still worried that this will be the Lions game all over again, ask yourself this, "Would Seattle lose to them again in a rematch?", I don't think so. Since the Lions and Miami game, the QB play and running game has taken off and our 3rd down defense improved significantly. If we lose then that means the Falcons were able to get turnovers, run the ball efficiently, and Matt Ryan played an amazing game. Could that happen, I suppose so but Seattle has played on fire for weeks and it doesn't appear that I should doubt they are not going to win this game.

kearly":ahofhl2j said:

As Scott points out, Pete has to be aware of the pass rush matchup problem. I also think it's hardly a coincidence that Seattle started blitzing very heavily after Clemons left the game last week.

Seattle is going to finish with 400+ yards and probably 30+ points on offense. Even if Ryan carves us up, we have a 50/50 chance to win anyway. If he doesn't carve us up, it could be a blowout win for Seattle. Atlanta's defense ain't stopping our offense. Our offense has been playing on a New England level since mid-season. Would you expect the Falcons to shut down New England?

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I'm a tad concerned with our offense. Before the Rams game I would have said "Hell YES we will get 400+ yards and 30+ points!", but pass pro seems to be a slight issue now.

hawksfan515":1gk98qnk said:

kearly":1gk98qnk said:

As Scott points out, Pete has to be aware of the pass rush matchup problem. I also think it's hardly a coincidence that Seattle started blitzing very heavily after Clemons left the game last week.

Seattle is going to finish with 400+ yards and probably 30+ points on offense. Even if Ryan carves us up, we have a 50/50 chance to win anyway. If he doesn't carve us up, it could be a blowout win for Seattle. Atlanta's defense ain't stopping our offense. Our offense has been playing on a New England level since mid-season. Would you expect the Falcons to shut down New England?

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I'm a tad concerned with our offense. Before the Rams game I would have said "Hell YES we will get 400+ yards and 30+ points!", but pass pro seems to be a slight issue now.

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When I think of our toughest games of the year I think: Green Bay, New England, and Chicago. Those games, especially the latter 2, were won by our offense. I know the defense held them to low scores, but if the defense can hold the Falcons within 1 score I have full faith in Russell Wilson in the 4th quarter (unless his receiver slips and allows an easy reception).

This is kind of 'out there' but I'd love to see, if we could disguise it well enough, Browner crush Ryan on an unhindered blind-side blitz. Just snap, step-step-step BOOM! A forced fumble and an aching back for Ryan the rest of the game.

Hawkfan77":3q5j6o9d said:

Cool story bro.

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Seriously. Nobody cares why you think the seahawks will lose

hawksfan515":dk3v66tc said:

kearly":dk3v66tc said:

As Scott points out, Pete has to be aware of the pass rush matchup problem. I also think it's hardly a coincidence that Seattle started blitzing very heavily after Clemons left the game last week.

Seattle is going to finish with 400+ yards and probably 30+ points on offense. Even if Ryan carves us up, we have a 50/50 chance to win anyway. If he doesn't carve us up, it could be a blowout win for Seattle. Atlanta's defense ain't stopping our offense. Our offense has been playing on a New England level since mid-season. Would you expect the Falcons to shut down New England?

Click to expand...

I'm a tad concerned with our offense. Before the Rams game I would have said "Hell YES we will get 400+ yards and 30+ points!", but pass pro seems to be a slight issue now.

Click to expand...

Even in that game, we approached 400 yards. Against that front 7. There is one linebacker from Atlanta that could start for the Rams. The Falcons secondary is better for sure, the safeties are better, though Moore is primarily a hitter.

Atlanta tries like hell to direct receivers to the 2 deep zones where over throws and under throws are easy pickings. Those are throws Russell avoids, he likes to err to the side of green grass.

Our offense will be just fine, and I still expect at least 50 points combined in this game.

HighlandHawk":3f9picup said:

Geez, it's like people are so blind to our problems.. We're not a perfect team and no matter how good our secondary is they cant cover JJ and White for six seconds until our anaemic pass rush eventually waddles upto Matt Ryan.

I agree with English on pretty much every point he's made. Having the best scoring defense in the league doesn't mean anything when it's a one and done game, it's an average. If we only let the Falcons score 15 points then I'm happy but the Falcons won't score 15 points unless we get a solid pass rush on them, that's just how the Falcons are, good offensive line, excellent passing game and mediocre running game. Keep in mind that our sack total is inflated by a freakish first half in one game and while sacks don't tell a full story for how a defense plays it's still a hugely important aspect and we can't keep riding our luck without QB pressure.

I honestly believe our pass rush will decide whether we win or lose this game. Four sacks and I'm happy, three and I'm nervous anything less and I'm hoping we can grind out the win with time of possesion

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The most yards that Matt Ryan had in a single game (411) was against the Saints in a loss. Clearly the Saints pass rush didn't show up that day yet they still won. Most games Ryan throws 250 to 350 yards. Ryan may get his average of 294 yards and 2 TD's but that won't be enough to beat the Hawks. Even without Clemons and Jones our defense is better than the average defense the Falcons have faced this year. If Ryan puts up his average numbers I don't see the Falcons beating the Hawks. Seattle will be able to control the clock through their superior ground game keeping Ryan off the field thus limiting the damage he can do with his arm. If the Hawks can manage 200 yards on the ground and 150 to 200 in the air they win this game.

I think the same reason why we could have lose to the Skins applies equally to the Falcons - 4th quarter defense. We never had to face this situation last week because the game was at hand under 5 minutes. However, what happens if we are up by 2-6 points with less than 2 minutes and Matt Ryan and the Falcons have the ball at their 20? Can our Legion of Boom stop them? Of all the teams we have faced this season, Detroit is probably the closest thing to Atlanta. Heavy pass offense with just a little running game to keep the defense in check. We all remember what happened at the end of that game. I am just concerned that our LB's and safeties will get super soft in that pressure situation on the road with the game on the line. This could all come down to one single drive and our ability to stop them for the game winning score. So far this season, on the road, aside from Carolina, we have not been able to.

link.different perspective on need for pressure. Short article.


http://12thmanrising.com/2013/01/10/pas ... s-atlanta/

Crizilla":19ydik72 said:

Hawkfan77":19ydik72 said:

Cool story bro.

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Seriously. Nobody cares why you think the seahawks will lose

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Don't read the thread then.

Eight pages of discussion suggests people did want to talk about this.

Paranoid thread makes me paranoid

I worry about what this game will do to our draft position

VaporHawk":3ulrcswu said:

I worry about what this game will do to our draft position

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[youtube]qfResyFrqlM[/youtube]

A couple of points that I'd like to make in regards to several posts in this thread.

The first is about Bruce Irvin and some peoples worries about him and run defense. He was actually a 3-4 end in college. He has a lot more experience holding the line of scrimmage and allowing the linebackers to make the play on the running back then he had rushing the passer in college. He straight up said that he wasn't coached how to rush the passer when he was in college. The reason is he was taught to maintain his gap.

The second is about film. A lot of what makes teams successful is studying their opponents, but with our primary pass rusher going down, there is going to be very little film of how we attack an offense with Irvin playing Leo and Scruggs playing DE (remember he has been playing 3-tech with McDonald at the 1-tech throughout the season). The Falcons have no way to prepare for the pressure packages that we will bring. One of the things we don't do much of is twists and stunts, and I can see us bringing those to bear this game.

The third is regarding the Falcons fan that popped in about how all we did was beat a one legged QB, yadda yadda. The way we actually turned their offensive success around was exactly what I said before the game. The way to slow down or stop that running game is all on your defensive tackles. After the second drive the coaching staff switched responsibilities, Mebane was charged with attacking the guard and center (he had been getting to the MLB and taking him out of the plays). Branch was charged with taking on the tackle and pushing him into the backfield (he had been turning Bryant away from the play). Bryant was charged with taking on the TE) he had been taking out our SAM and thus creating the gap for Morris to get the 7 and 8 yard gains. This strategy worked perfectly. We were able to string the runs out wide and minimize the damage on their runs. That put Griffin in the pocket and their receivers could not get open.

English, the OP was very well thought out and presented, however I can't agree with your conclusion.