Kearly's offseason preview

NYCoug

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kearly, the one thing I really hope you're right on is Tony Gonzalez. I know it's a pipe dream but I think he would be the biggest possible addition that this team could score in free agency. Him and Zach Miller would be a lethal combination. It's fun to dream in January...

As far as Hopkins goes, there's no doubt in my mind that if PC/JS fall in love with him, and he's there at 25, they will make him their pick regardless of the need at DT.
 

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Is WR a must address position? What if we don't spend in FA on a WR or use our 1st round pick on one. What are our best alternatives.

Would a 2nd round pick of Marcus Wheaton or Robert Woods be enough of an upgrade? Would they even beat out Tate? I want to think Tate has earned his spot but I also think we need to improve his position with size and speed. If we can add a versitile H type pass catching TE that improves over McCoy either in FA or in the mid rounds I will be less upset if we don't upgrade over Tate. I am as infatuated with some of these 6'2, 6'3, 6'4 Wr's in the draft and would love for RW to have a big WR to go up for the ball but he dosn't really need that. He just needs a guy to be on is level and get open.

Besides Hopkins who can "just get open" or get that extra seperation yet bring more size than the 5'10 Tate
 

drrew

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Not to put a damper on the Jared Cook thing (I really like him as well), but word out of Tennessee is that he's going to be franchised. This is coming from Paul Kuharksy who runs ESPNs AFC South Blog, but was previously the Titans main beat writer for 10+ years.

The franchise number on TE's for 2013 is under $6m, only kickers come in lower, so it's not a huge cap hit for keeping a guy integral to their offensive development.

With the strides that McCoy made as a blocker this year, I'd be surprised to see them spend any real assets on a TE unless they decide the Miller cap hit is just too large.
 

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To answer my own question, it seems obvious PC/JS want more from our WR and TE's. We have brought in Mike Williams, Braylon Edwards, TO, Antonio Bryant Kellen Winslow, and Evan Moore. Before that We almost traded for Marshall and V.Jax. It is not like we've hidden the fact we wanted a big fast WR. We got Rice but they have still tried to pair another big guy with him. They have also shown they want a TE who could be a receiving threat opposite of Miller's traditional TE role. I remember how excited they were when we brough in Miller and they were talking how with him and Carlson could do so much in the run and passing game. I just can't see us not making a big move. I think WR and TE are the only positions on offense were we could drastically improve with minimal investment. for example adding a WR liek Hopking or TE like Ertz with our 1st would be a drastic improvement over what we currently have. Drafting a RT or RG and i'm not sure they would even start Giocamini has done well and with Moffit and Sweezey working the RG I could see Carpenter winning the LG spot and McQuistin taking over for them. Not sure a rookie is going to make a huge impact there we are already solid.
 

QuahHawk

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drrew":1h9o3qpb said:
Not to put a damper on the Jared Cook thing (I really like him as well), but word out of Tennessee is that he's going to be franchised. This is coming from Paul Kuharksy who runs ESPNs AFC South Blog, but was previously the Titans main beat writer for 10+ years.

The franchise number on TE's for 2013 is under $6m, only kickers come in lower, so it's not a huge cap hit for keeping a guy integral to their offensive development.

With the strides that McCoy made as a blocker this year, I'd be surprised to see them spend any real assets on a TE unless they decide the Miller cap hit is just too large.

Jermichael Finley and Fred Davis are still available. Either would bring more to the table than McCoy.
 

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Wenhawk":f0vt4blf said:
Is WR a must address position? What if we don't spend in FA on a WR or use our 1st round pick on one. What are our best alternatives.

Would a 2nd round pick of Marcus Wheaton or Robert Woods be enough of an upgrade? Would they even beat out Tate? I want to think Tate has earned his spot but I also think we need to improve his position with size and speed. If we can add a versitile H type pass catching TE that improves over McCoy either in FA or in the mid rounds I will be less upset if we don't upgrade over Tate. I am as infatuated with some of these 6'2, 6'3, 6'4 Wr's in the draft and would love for RW to have a big WR to go up for the ball but he dosn't really need that. He just needs a guy to be on is level and get open.

Besides Hopkins who can "just get open" or get that extra seperation yet bring more size than the 5'10 Tate

Wheaton would be a nice addition, especially if you supplemented it with the acquisition of a guy like Ramses Barden in Free Agency. That'll solve your quest for one of those bigger receivers. And it would appear that he has some untapped potential, which could all interest the Hawks.

They could also look at Abbrederis. He had excellent chemistry with Russell Wilson and we've seen the Colts do it with Luck/Fleener so it's not completely unprecedented.

It should be fun to see which combination of players they think are exactly what the Hawks need to get to the top of the mountain.
 

QuahHawk

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drrew":k5i7sqa1 said:
Not to put a damper on the Jared Cook thing (I really like him as well), but word out of Tennessee is that he's going to be franchised. This is coming from Paul Kuharksy who runs ESPNs AFC South Blog, but was previously the Titans main beat writer for 10+ years.

The franchise number on TE's for 2013 is under $6m, only kickers come in lower, so it's not a huge cap hit for keeping a guy integral to their offensive development.

With the strides that McCoy made as a blocker this year, I'd be surprised to see them spend any real assets on a TE unless they decide the Miller cap hit is just too large.
 

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I really like the idea of bringing in DRC. However, I'm fairly positive someone is going to overpay for him, simply because young quality CBs are so hard to come by in free agency. Even after a down year, he's still going to get a fairly large contract, IMO.
 

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Great writeup Kearly, thanks.

It seems like the FO is more willing to look to FA for WR's than any other position. I think it's because a rookie WR takes about 3 years to really learn the route tree. Look at Tate. The team has needed to upgrade at WR for several years and their biggest acquisition was Rice through FA. With such a strong WR class coming out, the market seems saturated and the chance to pick up a quality proven WR in FA for cheap has to be greater than ever.

If, however, they don't pick one up in FA, I think you're right that they'll wait until later in the draft to grab one. It could be another offseason of people complaining we didn't address our offseason need at WR. Honestly, however, I think they'll do both. They'll pick someone up in FA and they'll grab one in the draft. That satisfies their need for an immediate impact and homegrowing talent.

As for the defensive line, I believe they've identified that as their greatest need. If they can put on a withering pass rush, they won't be giving up anymore late games like Detroit, Chicago and Atlanta. Their first priority in the draft will have to be this because you're correct, there aren't any good prospects in this draft. That said, this is all the more reason that they need to look at FA to find talent at that position.

So I think our biggest FA acquisition - from a money standpoint - will be a talented defensive lineman and then they'll wait out the market to snatch up a WR that they can get cheap. They'll probably take a DL and a LB with their first two picks and a WR with their 3rd before going back to defense after that.

Just my best guess.
 

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+1 for the great writeup. It'll be interesting to see how it all shakes out. Can't wait for next season.
 

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kearly":thdaby54 said:
kf3339":thdaby54 said:
My only problem with this is the somewhat non-importance of the 3tech position in your analysis. I realize you are talking of what you think JS is leaning towards, but it seems to me that PC is still the one who calls the shots, and will perhaps be a little more interested in getting a guy who can collapse the pocket. So while money ball may be JS's motto, I wouldn't be surprised that the Hawks make a bigger splash at that guy in Melton or Starks. It just doesn't make sense to me to be frugal when we are so close to getting to the Super Bowl and that is the glaring piece we are missing.

I think they will spend a 1st round pick on a 3-tech, not sign a FA 3-tech to a big contract. They will definitely invest big at the 3-tech, I just think it will be with a draft pick, not with money.

This is pretty much the exact opposite of what I would do, but their past history and the hints they've dropped makes me think that they would rather burn a 1st round pick for what they hope is a young foundational piece as opposed to a pricey veteran. "Build through the draft" is the motto they live by, and occasionally, it can cause them to undervalue free agency and overvalue the draft.

Who do you think would be a strong pick at our pick at 25 in the first round, because I don't see anyone short of a major move up in the first. That would require probably our 1st and 2nd round picks. Also, why wouldn't they use the same method they used for Branch and Clemons to find a proven 3tech in FA or trade when there are obvious quality choices in now?

I just don't see it, and really hope that they don't play moneyball with this offseason options. It's time to be bold.
 
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kearly

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MontanaHawk05":25b64o2e said:
I continue to maintain that adding a good WR/TE is still an underrated need. Perhaps not as major as DL, but we're still talking about two major needs. Shielding Russell Wilson from a sophomore slump and excessive need to scramble should be a big priority for 2012, and Hopkins is one of a couple different types of WR's lacking in this offense who would accomplish that goal.

Well, let's just say that I really hope PC/JS share that view. But when I heard the exasperation in Pete's voice when he talked about adding a pass rusher, then corrected himself and said "pass rushers", it makes it feel like pass rush is as big if not a bigger priority for these guys than it was last year. And given Clemons status, and the possible departure of Jones/Branch, it should be.
 

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Great post, thanks a lot.

It is going to be tough to wait for all of this play out! Uggh, eff the offseason, haha
 
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kearly

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Some people are asking who we might take at WR after round 1. There are a lot of great WRs in this draft, but for me the mid round option I'd most like to see is Cobi Hamilton. 6'3", 209, decently fast, very natural WR, productive in college playing in the SEC. Very strong starter potential, I am surprised he is often considered a 4th round prospect. Reminds me of Hopkins actually- in that he's a technician with tools. If Seattle did pass on Hopkins but grabbed Hamilton later, all would be forgiven. Although I'd rather just draft both.
 

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Fantastic write-up there Kearly!

And excellent job on highlighting about the Cap Rollover. I'd been operating under the premise that teams were now basically mandated to spend their available cap space. The fact that they can roll some of that over changes the equation completely as far as how the Seahawks will approach Free Agency. I completely agree with you how you characterized Schneider's approach -- bargain basement shopping. Therefore, I'd say that you're right that he will probably avoid what will be the expensive free agents out there.

Osi Umenyiora becomes an even MORE likely target IMO. Jared Cook is another (who I believe could be had for fairly low lost) that really intrigues me as well. Randy Starks perhaps ... but I'm beginning to really view him and Alan Branch as very much similar in what they can do. With Cap Space being able to be rolled over ... you're spot on that Schneider will look to first lock up key players who are already here (Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, etc.).
 

drrew

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Hawkscanner":31cp5xu5 said:
... Jared Cook is another (who I believe could be had for fairly low lost) that really intrigues me as well.


Jared Cook is likely to be franchised by TEN. Not sure why you'd think he could be had at a 'fairly low cost' but it's just not happening.
 

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drrew":hx05xsbp said:
Hawkscanner":hx05xsbp said:
... Jared Cook is another (who I believe could be had for fairly low lost) that really intrigues me as well.


Jared Cook is likely to be franchised by TEN. Not sure why you'd think he could be had at a 'fairly low cost' but it's just not happening.

I for one will be really surprised if they do that.
 
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kearly

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kf3339":1nnddpqr said:
Who do you think would be a strong pick at our pick at 25 in the first round, because I don't see anyone short of a major move up in the first. That would require probably our 1st and 2nd round picks. Also, why wouldn't they use the same method they used for Branch and Clemons to find a proven 3tech in FA or trade when there are obvious quality choices in now?

I just don't see it, and really hope that they don't play moneyball with this offseason options. It's time to be bold.

You are preaching to the choir. I feel exactly the same way you do and if I was GM, that's how I would do it. But I look at their history. Whatever they identify as their top need is pretty much always their 1st round pick, regardless of whether it is a good draft for that need or not. They got lucky in 2010 because needs matched a good draft class for that area, but in 2011 and 2012 they did not. Unfortunately, 2013 looks to be the 3rd year in a row where need isn't met with an obvious match in the draft.

I totally agree with you about the D-line talent at #25 and it bothers me to no end.

If there is a glimmer of optimism, there is a growing chance that prize 3-tech Sheldon Richardson could be in play for us. He's been steadily dropping down prospect boards by draftniks, I saw him ranked #22 on a top 50 board the other day. Obviously, draftnik rankings are hardly gospel but in the early to mid 1st round they tend to be very accurate. Maybe he won't reach #25, but it's no longer a pipe dream and if he reaches the late teens Seattle might be able to snag him while keeping their 2nd rounder.

There are some intriguing albeit "unique" pass rushers that could go in rounds 2-5. It's possible that Seattle might decide to go that route and stockpile on misfit pass rushers after taking a non-pass rusher in round 1. That is the best coarse of action. I just hope they realize it. But right now, by gut says "most likely" we'll be looking at a DL pick at #25, and it probably won't be a pick anyone will get excited for.
 

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drrew":222z6gip said:
Hawkscanner":222z6gip said:
... Jared Cook is another (who I believe could be had for fairly low lost) that really intrigues me as well.


Jared Cook is likely to be franchised by TEN. Not sure why you'd think he could be had at a 'fairly low cost' but it's just not happening.

You're right, I probably shot my mouth off with that one. Still, I'd stand by my contention that Cook getting franchised isn't necessarily a slam dunk. He caught 44 passes for 523 Yards and 4 TD's this season. That's good for a TE, but it's not like he set the world on fire or anything. The Titans have $19.4 Million in available Cap Space this season, and the Titans COULD afford to Franchise him if they wish ... but the question that I'd be asking myself if I were their GM is, "Is Cook truly worth it?" Here are the top TE salaries in the NFL ...

Jason Witten, Dallas: $7.4 million/yr, $18.5 million guaranteed
Vernon Davis, San Francisco: $7.35 million/yr, $23 million guaranteed
Antonio Gates, San Diego: $7.235 million, $20.4 million guaranteed
Jermichael Finley, Green Bay: $7 million, $1 million guaranteed
Rob Gronkowski, New England: $6.9 million, $18 million guaranteed

So, Franchising Cook basically means that he would be earning around $7 million/season. Is he truly worth that? I'm not certain that I would place him in the category of the other Tight Ends I have listed there. Therefore, I'm not sure he gets Franchised or not.
 

drrew

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Hawkscanner":1sfsfsmg said:
You're right, I probably shot my mouth off with that one. Still, I'd stand by my contention that Cook getting franchised isn't necessarily a slam dunk. He caught 44 passes for 523 Yards and 4 TD's this season. That's good for a TE, but it's not like he set the world on fire or anything. The Titans have $19.4 Million in available Cap Space this season, and the Titans COULD afford to Franchise him if they wish ... but the question that I'd be asking myself if I were their GM is, "Is Cook truly worth it?" Here are the top TE salaries in the NFL ...

Jason Witten, Dallas: $7.4 million/yr, $18.5 million guaranteed
Vernon Davis, San Francisco: $7.35 million/yr, $23 million guaranteed
Antonio Gates, San Diego: $7.235 million, $20.4 million guaranteed
Jermichael Finley, Green Bay: $7 million, $1 million guaranteed
Rob Gronkowski, New England: $6.9 million, $18 million guaranteed

So, Franchising Cook basically means that he would be earning around $7 million/season. Is he truly worth that? I'm not certain that I would place him in the category of the other Tight Ends I have listed there. Therefore, I'm not sure he gets Franchised or not.

I would agree he's not in that class, but the 2013 number is $5.9m, and TEN has basically no other big free agents. The guy who served as the main Titans beat writer for 10 years before moving onto ESPN is stating that they're likely to tag him. If anyone is likely to have a beat on what the org is thinking, Paul Kuharsky is that guy.

All that being said, I really like Jared Cook, he has the physical skills to be a star, it just seems unlikely he'll be available.
 

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