Scottemojo":1q5govpu said:
DavidSeven":1q5govpu said:
Am I crazy to think Flynn has more upside than Alex Smith? Obviously, Smith has proven he can thrive in a perfect situation, but what are his game-manaing ways going to do for teams like Kansas City or Jacksonville?
No, not crazy. Alex has always been a terrible red zone QB.
In the three games where Flynn played significant snaps prior to signing with Seattle, he was... not great. Then again, there's not a lot of evidence, really.
Against the Lions in 2010 when he took over for Rodgers mid-game, he had only one trip to the red zone:
2 plays, 2 attempts, 0 completions, 1 INT
This isn't to surprising considering he was stepping in mid game. It's not like he game planned all week.
Against the Patriots in 2010, when he was the starter, he had 5 trips into the red zone:
18 plays, 5 runs, 2 sacks (one where he fumbled the ball away to end the game), 11 attempts, 5 completions, 2 TDs
This stat is a little misleading. Tom Brady threw for 158 yards and 1 TD in that same game. The weather was horrific. Raining and snowing with heavy wind gusts that effected both QB's and of the two Flynn looked like the better QB and didn't benefit from one of his O-lineman running back a kick off for a TD. Yep, an O-lineman. Flynn did throw a pick and it was a bad one but there were IIRC 6 missed tackles on the return and they were horrid missed tackles the variety of which players get released over. If NE doesn't get either one of the pick 6 or the O-lineman (fricken O-lineman) TD's Flynn is 2-0 in his two starts. It should also be mentioned that Flynn threw the ball 66 times completing 40 of them. How often do you ask your backup to come in in horrible weather and ask him to throw the ball 66 times?
Against the Lions in 2011, when he was the starter, he had 3 trips into the end zone:
10 plays, 2 runs, 8 attempts, 5 completions, 2 TDs
This is kind of a funny one. If you listen to the "he sucks' crowd, all Flynn did was take the snap and throw the ball and the best receiving core to ever grace the NFL field did the rest. It ignores what Flynn really did in that game including repeat come from behind leads against an opposing QB who threw for over 500 yards in a game with playoff seeding implications for the opponent only and Flynn was without multiple key starters including Jennings playing for a team that had nothing to gain from a win.
If you watched the game honestly you would see how the YAC was possible. It was due to leading his receivers and throwing them open. He wasn't waiting for the receiver to plant like we watched Jackson do all last year, he threw the ball to were the receiver could make the catch with the least interference from DB's and with the most ability to run after the catch. GB has a great receiver group even without Jennings but they aren't so good they can just break every tackle and mow through opponents. They need to ball to be placed where they can catch it in stride or your YAC is meaningless. Even with that said only two of Flynn's 5 TD's were attributed to long runs after the catch and both were because of a perfect throw that enabled the run not despite it.
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While there is clear evidence that Flynn's play in the red zone improved with each opportunity to start, I wouldn't yet call red zone play a "strength." I'd still consider it an unknown. What is clear is that at least in the famous 480/6 game, Flynn benefited a lot from the big play. For a team to score 45 points offensively and yet only reach the red zone 3 times in a game is pretty incredible.
This is the beauty of only having a small sample size. You can actually go back and watch each play and evaluate them individually. Stats are nice but they don't tell the whole story. You can assume alot of things but the real eyeball test is seeing what actually happened and not what the stats were. They can be very misleading. I mean after the NE game no one was saying Flynn was a better QB than Brady though that day he clearly was.
I don't have the time to track each of Smith's plays in the red zone right now. Maybe I'll investigate that this evening.