Most over-rated NFL players

Colin Kaepernick has to be one of the most overrated players in the NFL right now.

Scottemojo":2y49ox5a said:

And two seconds for Alex Smith?

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As soon as I saw this, I was flabbergasted and I lost all faith I might ever have had in Walrus, Jr. Two seconds for Alex Smith is about the dumbest trade I've ever even heard of, much less seen.

Fox0r":1dz22lti said:

Colin Kaepernick has to be one of the most overrated players in the NFL right now.

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That's just being a homer. After next year lets talk again.

kearly":1xrudjw7 said:

Andrew Luck's rookie season, which was very similar to Bradford's in terms of schedule strength and surrounding cast, also resulted in the same exact passer rating: 76.5.

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Luck to Bradford isn't a close comparison. At all. Luck's Y/A and ANY/A were 7.0 and 5.66, respectively. Bradford's as a rookie were 6.0 and 4.73 on 37 fewer attempts than Luck. Luck's passer rating is deflated because of his abnormally low completion percentage, but that's a result of attempting more difficult throws. Luck's Deep% (% of attempts over 15 yards) was 27.0%, 3rd in the league. Bradford's Deep% as a rookie was 12.5%, last of the 39 qualifying QBs that year. He doesn't deserve to be compared to Luck because his completion percentage (which makes up 25% of passer rating) is inflated by throwing a bunch of short, easy passes.

Re: Fitzgerald: I wouldn't call him overrated based on last season. In Kolb's 5 starts, Fitz had 32 receptions for 367 yards and 3 TDs, which projects to 102 receptions for 1174 yards and 10 TDs over a 16 game season. Lindley and Skelton were just historically bad and no receiver would have produced with those two last year.

For me, the most overrated player in the league is RG III, even before his injury. I still don't buy into him as a passer and think his great passing efficiency numbers are misleading because defenses keying on his running ability gives him easier throws to make. His passing numbers took a nosedive last year in situations where the defense didn't have to focus on the run. He wasn't good when he had to throw more than 25 times a game, and he wasn't good on 3rd and long when defenses could focus on stopping the pass. On 3rd and 8 or more to go last year:

Luck: 41-83, 8.54 Y/A, 2.41 INT%, 5.68 Sack%, 36.4 1st down %
Wilson: 22-40, 7.33 Y/A, 2.44 INT%, 9.09 Sack%, 27.3 1st down %
RG3: 28-48, 5.88 Y/A, 0.00 INT%, 11.11 Sack%, 9.3 1st down %

RG3 is a great weapon, but he isn't a great passer yet and we saw his body wear down last year when he relied too much on his legs.

Suh, Rivers, Mike Wallace, Andre Johnson (only 4 TDs last year).

Scottemojo":srwfe5xn said:

I would have trouble making an over rated list that did not include
Andy Reid
Brian Cushing
Heath Miller
Antonio Cromartie
London Fletcher (Seriously, he got so much pub last year and he is awful!)
and Joe Staley.

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I can't comment on Cromartie before last year, but I thought he looked terrific in the Seahawk game. Advanced stats/metrics raved about his 2012 season too.

Staley and Miller always looked pretty good to my eye but it's not like I watch them every week.

I'm begrudgingly with you on Reid, even though I was a fan of his for many years. He's so much like Mike Holmgren it's a little scary. At times he's a fantastic talent evaluator, and just when you think he's a genius, he does something incredibly dumb to screw everything up.

jewhawk":3gk3qa9y said:

Re: Fitzgerald: I wouldn't call him overrated based on last season. In Kolb's 5 starts, Fitz had 32 receptions for 367 yards and 3 TDs, which projects to 102 receptions for 1174 yards and 10 TDs over a 16 game season. Lindley and Skelton were just historically bad and no receiver would have produced with those two last year.

For me, the most overrated player in the league is RG III, even before his injury. I still don't buy into him as a passer and think his great passing efficiency numbers are misleading because defenses keying on his running ability gives him easier throws to make. His passing numbers took a nosedive last year in situations where the defense didn't have to focus on the run. He wasn't good when he had to throw more than 25 times a game, and he wasn't good on 3rd and long when defenses could focus on stopping the pass. On 3rd and 8 or more to go last year:

Luck: 41-83, 8.54 Y/A, 2.41 INT%, 5.68 Sack%, 36.4 1st down %
Wilson: 22-40, 7.33 Y/A, 2.44 INT%, 9.09 Sack%, 27.3 1st down %
RG3: 28-48, 5.88 Y/A, 0.00 INT%, 11.11 Sack%, 9.3 1st down %

RG3 is a great weapon, but he isn't a great passer yet and we saw his body wear down last year when he relied too much on his legs.

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I think you are cherry picking a bit on that 3rd and 8 stat. But it's an interesting cherry. I bet you noticed this but, Luck was in twice as many 3rd and 8+ situations as Wilson/RG3. It's nice that he's very good in those situations, but he finds himself in them far too often. It's great that he can dig himself out of a hole, but he puts himself into a hole too much to make it an acceptable tradeoff. Part of that is having a much weaker running game and a more boom/bust passing game. But still, twice as much is a big difference. Remember too that those numbers do not adjust for strength of defense, and Luck played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL last season.

I agree that RG3 benefited from the read option last year and it will be interesting to see how he adapts in the next few seasons. If I was a Redskins fan I'd be nervous that RG3 might experience the same fall to earth that Michael Vick experienced after 2010.

RE Luck/Bradford, I agree that the passer rating formula does give Bradford a handicap in the comparison, and I also think that Luck was probably better all things considered. I also think that Luck's amazingly good deep ball numbers had a lot to do with the guys he was throwing to. That WR corps may not be amazing, but it's built to attack deep (Wayne, Hilton, two fast TEs). Rookie Sam Bradford's WR corps only had one legitimate deep WR, and that was then UDFA rookie Danario Alexander a couple years before he was good. Their top receiver that year was ultra slot receiver Danny Amendola, with pure possession WR Brandon Gibson being a close second. (Neither one is still with the Rams today.)

It's true that Bradford was a checkdown guy and Luck was a gunslinger, but I think their supporting cast played into that quite a bit. The Rams ran a checkdown offense because that was the most efficient way to do things based on the supporting cast, and vice versa in Indy. Luck's coach- Arians- had previously worked with Big Ben (coincidentally my Luck comp before the 2012 draft) and Big Ben has always made the deep ball a fairly major staple of his game, especially the last several years with Mike Wallace. Bradford had a defense first coach in Spags and a pure WCO OC in Pat Shurmur. So in addition to supporting cast I think coaching philosophy played a huge role as well.

I'm not trying to dismiss your point completely, but I do think that if Bradford had played in the same situation we would not have seen splits that large.

With Fitzgerald, he only played with Kolb a fraction of the previous season and still managed 1400. I watched Fitz a lot both seasons and the eyeball test was no contest, but that's just my opinion. That said, if I made a list of under-rated players, I'd probably include Kolb on it if the list was long enough. I never really understood why the media and even his own coaching staff demonized him so much. He was clearly the best QB on that roster the entire time he was there.

Bradford was genius/brilliant his rookie year. Yes, he checked down alot, but as kearly states, that was due attrition. But, if you're hitting 7-9 WR's a game, when realically you only have 3 NFL caliber WR's on the team, as a rookie, you're doing well.

Sarlacc83":2nj5t17t said:

I feel like Aldon Smith is going to be on this list very soon if he doesn't belong there already.

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You are aware that it has been revealed that Aldon suffered an injury the same game that Justin got injured right? And that he continued to play with his injury the rest of the season right? Which also explains why he didn't record another sack after getting injured.

CALIHAWK1":36esek6b said:

Fox0r":36esek6b said:

Colin Kaepernick has to be one of the most overrated players in the NFL right now.

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That's just being a homer. After next year lets talk again.

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Seriously man? Then I guess if you weren't a Seahawk fan Wilson would be overrated too right?

Scottemojo":2mufvmda said:

I would have trouble making an over rated list that did not include
Andy Reid
Brian Cushing
Heath Miller
Antonio Cromartie
London Fletcher (Seriously, he got so much pub last year and he is awful!)
and Joe Staley.

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Staley?....ok

Ask Clay Mathews if he thinks Staley is overrated.

NinerLifer":7im1i2on said:

CALIHAWK1":7im1i2on said:

Fox0r":7im1i2on said:

Colin Kaepernick has to be one of the most overrated players in the NFL right now.

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That's just being a homer. After next year lets talk again.

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Seriously man? Then I guess if you weren't a Seahawk fan Wilson would be overrated too right?

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You quoted and responded to the wrong guy, Calihawk1 is saying FoxOr's comment is biased. Why not just quote FoxOr's comment with your response? Confusing use of the quoting system, though you are not the first to use this technique.

NinerLifer":2uo1bx5t said:

Scottemojo":2uo1bx5t said:

I would have trouble making an over rated list that did not include
Andy Reid
Brian Cushing
Heath Miller
Antonio Cromartie
London Fletcher (Seriously, he got so much pub last year and he is awful!)
and Joe Staley.

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Staley?....ok

Ask Clay Mathews if he thinks Staley is overrated.

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Why even posts your responses? We know what they'll be already, really.

There's other NFL topics to, add to those as well. If any of you added to topics outside of your 49ers, maybe you wouldn't be viewed as such an annoyance.

It's really odd and kind of sick to comb another teams forum, looking ONLY for instances where you believe your team got slighted. It's VERY odd. You go out of your way to find slights to your beloved team. That's sick behavior. I couldn't imagine heading to a 49er forum and only replying or contributing to Seahawks posts or conversations.

Just, BE BETTER. Contribute to all topics, not just ones that hurt your feelings.

NinerLifer":2ngf3v6s said:

CALIHAWK1":2ngf3v6s said:

Fox0r":2ngf3v6s said:

Colin Kaepernick has to be one of the most overrated players in the NFL right now.

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That's just being a homer. After next year lets talk again.

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Seriously man? Then I guess if you weren't a Seahawk fan Wilson would be overrated too right?

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What? Did you forget sarcasm on?

Sarlacc83":kaeag2cn said:

I feel like Aldon Smith is going to be on this list very soon if he doesn't belong there already.

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Aldon Smith without Justin Smith out there really controlling things is like Bruce Irvin in the Falcon's game without Clemons out there to take up pressure. So ya, I could see Aldon mith as overrated, at least until he proves he can do it without the other Smith making hay.

Jazzhawk":w0nbqpcw said:

Sarlacc83":w0nbqpcw said:

I feel like Aldon Smith is going to be on this list very soon if he doesn't belong there already.

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Aldon Smith without Justin Smith out there really controlling things is like Bruce Irvin in the Falcon's game without Clemons out there to take up pressure. So ya, I could see Aldon mith as overrated, at least until he proves he can do it without the other Smith making hay.

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:13: Aldon without Justin is just like bruce without Chris. I am looking forward to see Bruce return in week 5 with all the added muscle he put on in the "gym"..

Russell Wilson it's pretty good "for a short QB"

If I name a certain "dangeruss" player, will I get the ban-hammer? :2:

look@dafilm":30w7p5le said:

If I name a certain "dangeruss" player, will I get the ban-hammer?

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No, but you'll get laughed at. We'll call you full of it, and say Kaepernick's overrated, not Wilson. You'll deny it because he got to the Super Bowl. We'll point out that you were one play away from getting to the Super Bowl the year before with Alex freakin' Smith manning the helm, and congratulate you on Kaepernick getting one play further than Smith, and that'll be the end of it. I just saved us a few posts. :devil:

RolandDeschain":2qj6ajn1 said:

look@dafilm":2qj6ajn1 said:

If I name a certain "dangeruss" player, will I get the ban-hammer?

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No, but you'll get laughed at. We'll call you full of it, and say Kaepernick's overrated, not Wilson. You'll deny it because he got to the Super Bowl. We'll point out that you were one play away from getting to the Super Bowl the year before with Alex freakin' Smith manning the helm, and congratulate you on Kaepernick getting one play further than Smith, and that'll be the end of it. I just saved us a few posts. :devil:

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probably

I just find it funny that both Aldon and Kaep are on here. Aldon had 20 sacks last year....20, and has the best start to his career in terms of sacks than any other pass rusher ever has.