Early 2014 Seahawks Draft!!!

SDHawk

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Assumptions:

CB-Brandon Browner is franchised
WR-Golden Tate allowed to walk
WR-Doug Baldwin traded to Colts for 4th Rounder
WR-Sidney Rice's contract is re-structured
TE-Zach Miller's contract is re-structured

Cuts:

DE-Red Bryant
DE-Chris Clemons

Other Significant Losses:

DE-Michael Bennett
FB-Michael Robinson
CB-Antoine Winfield
RT-Breno Giacomini
CB-Walter Thurmond
SS-Jeron Johnson
OG-Paul McQuistan
QB-Brady Quinn

===========================================================

1ST ROUND:

DE/LEO, Aaron Lynch, South Florida
6'6" | 265lbs | 4.6s


In my mind, Aaron Lynch is the best pass rusher in college football not named Jadeveon Clowney. His size compares favorably to Trent Murphy but is much faster with 4.5-4.6 wheels. Lynch sat out the 2012 season after transferring to South Florida. If he declares, I could see him getting drafted on the first day.

[youtube]lDxITkekPvE[/youtube]

Alternates:

1. LEO, Ronald Powell, Florida (6'4/250/4.5) - Bruce Irvin clone, see game vs. FSU circa 2011. Played for Dan Quinn and was a 5-star recruit. Prototypical Seahawk.
2. DE, Trent Murphy, Stanford (6'6/260/4.8 ) - Big and freakishly strong but shows slower than ideal speed.


2ND ROUND:

WR, Donte Moncrief, Ole Miss
6'2 | 225lbs | 4.4s


Moncrief is a physical and fast receiver with great hands (H/T HighlandHawk). He is everything we are hoping Chris Harper can be. I would prefer one of Brandon Coleman or Mike Evans but don't think it would be realistic to expect either to be available at the end of the 2nd Round.

[youtube]_1n9nnWF8Do[/youtube]

Alternates:

1. WR, Kelvin Benjamin, Florida State (6'4/245/4.6) - Huge receiver that measures like a TE. Raw but the potential is clearly there (H/T cover-2).
2. WR, Devin Street, Pittsburgh (6'3/195/4.5) - Sidney Rice clone.


4TH ROUND:

DT, George Uko, USC
6'3 | 285 lbs | 5.0s


Explosive and athletic tackle can replace Michael Bennett. Hoping that Will Sutton falls but I think he goes in round three, like Jordan Hill.

[youtube]KkN8B0SIE2I[/youtube]

Alternates:

1. DT, Ra'Shede Hageman, Minnesota (6'5/330/5.3) - Athletic freak also can replace Michael Bennett.
2. DT, Leon Orr, Florida (6'4/315/5.2) - Quin had lots of good things to say about Orr.


4TH ROUND:

CB, Antone Exum, Virginia Tech
6'1 | 220 lbs | 4.4s

Exum is a very physical DB and seems like a perfect fit for the Hawks defense. He would be an excellent replacement for Brandon Browner. Exum did an admirable job against FSU's Kelvin Benjamin who measures 6'4/245/4.6.

[youtube]GUSyrr9MHBg[/youtube]

Alternates:

1. DB, Keon Lyn, Syracuse (6'1/200/4.4) - Extremely close call between Exum and Lyn. I really like Lyn's game and think he is perfectly suited to play the slot. If we end up with Lyn, I wouldn't complain for a second. I gave Exum the advantage because of his size. Everyone needs to see his highlight reel on youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtSmqlzNwvg.


5TH ROUND:

QB, Chuckie Keeton, Utah State
6'2 | 200lbs | 4.6s


Probably the most exciting QB in this draft not named Johnny Manziel. Keeton has explosive athleticism and a game similar to RGIII. I could easily see him going in the third round to some lucky team hoping to repeat the success the Hawks have had with Russell Wilson.

[youtube]QWZAWC90K5E[/youtube]

Alternates:

1. QB, Marcus Mariota, Oregon (6'5/210/4.6) - Another dual threat QB.


5TH ROUND:

DB, AJ Marshall, Wake Forrest
5'11 | 190lbs | 4.4s


I want to give AJ Marshall a 4th round grade along with the other DBs listed. Hoping he flies under the radar and we pick him up for safety depth and possibly to play the slot.

[youtube]BnzO_LOfhWo[/youtube]

Alternates:

1. SS/OLB, Karlos Williams, Florida State (6'1/230/4.6) - Physical DB, Kam Chancellor-esque.
2. OLB, Denicos Allen, Michigan State (5'11/220/4.5) - Doesn't have prototypical size but intriguing pass rushing LB with above average coverage skills. Gave Russell Wilson some problems in their bowl game.
 

pehawk

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Gots to love the effort here. I think Keeton climbs, climbs and climbs draft boards.
 
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SDHawk

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pehawk":1nxpstij said:
Gots to love the effort here. I think Keeton climbs, climbs and climbs draft boards.

It's not hard to see why. Hoping that hang ups about his size knock him down a couple rounds. Who knows if he turns out to be Russell Wilson or Pat White.
 

kearly

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Really nice work. I've done a few of these and I know how incredibly time consuming they are.

I found the free agency decisions a little odd though.

I don't think Seattle will have the money to franchise anyone, and if they did they wouldn't give it to Brandon Browner. Given his age and dependent skillset, I doubt he'd get enough money in open free agency to justify that kind of expense (about $10 million). The only way I could see them tagging him was if they believed they could tag and trade, but trading franchise tagged players isn't easy and is rarely pulled off.

We also have excellent depth behind Browner. John Schneider finally made his first trade up this year and it was for Tharold Simon, a corner with a body type and skillset that is very similar to Browner. I'm not sure what happens with Thurmond, but I like to see him remain a Seahawk after 2013.

I could see Seattle letting Golden Tate go. It would be a big mistake, but I could see it. Let's hope that doesn't happen.

I could see the Baldwin trade, assuming they put a 2nd round RFA tender on him.

Rice is on a very reasonable contract. I could see him approached for restructure but only if a different big receiver steps up during this season, which is unlikely. Seattle wouldn't even try to restructure unless they were prepared to lose the player they were asking. I don't think Seattle is at that stage yet with either Rice or Miller.

Miller's foot injury worries me, but for now he seems pretty safe. Seattle paid Miller's roster bonus a couple months back. They had a chance for an "easy" out and didn't take it. That plus we don't yet have a true replacement for Miller on hand.

Cuts:

DE-Red Bryant - Yup.
DE-Chris Clemons - Probably.

DE-Michael Bennett - I hope he earns a 2nd contract. We'll see.
FB-Michael Robinson - Robinson was terrific last season. Ware would need to amaze for Robinson to leave.
CB-Antoine Winfield - Probably gone, but he's been an ageless wonder this long, so who knows?
RT-Breno Giacomini - I think he stays.
CB-Walter Thurmond - I hope he stays.
SS-Jeron Johnson - I think we keep him. I don't think he'll cost much.
OG-Paul McQuistan - He's a good player, but you kind of get the sense that he's not in the long term plan.
QB-Brady Quinn - Can we release him today?
 

pehawk

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Kearly, hermano, any early thoughts on Keeton? I see him climbing like Kaep, Manuel, Ponder (puke).
 
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kearly":2qffcgly said:
Really nice work. I've done a few of these and I know how incredibly time consuming they are.

I found the free agency decisions a little odd though.

I don't think Seattle will have the money to franchise anyone, and if they did they wouldn't give it to Brandon Browner. Given his age and dependent skillset, I doubt he'd get enough money in open free agency to justify that kind of expense (about $10 million). The only way I could see them tagging him was if they believed they could tag and trade, but trading franchise tagged players isn't easy and is rarely pulled off.

We also have excellent depth behind Browner. John Schneider finally made his first trade up this year and it was for Tharold Simon, a corner with a body type and skillset that is very similar to Browner. I'm not sure what happens with Thurmond, but I like to see him remain a Seahawk after 2013.

I could see Seattle letting Golden Tate go. It would be a big mistake, but I could see it. Let's hope that doesn't happen.

I could see the Baldwin trade, assuming they put a 2nd round RFA tender on him.

Rice is on a very reasonable contract. I could see him approached for restructure but only if a different big receiver steps up during this season, which is unlikely. Seattle wouldn't even try to restructure unless they were prepared to lose the player they were asking. I don't think Seattle is at that stage yet with either Rice or Miller.

Miller's foot injury worries me, but for now he seems pretty safe. Seattle paid Miller's roster bonus a couple months back. They had a chance for an "easy" out and didn't take it. That plus we don't yet have a true replacement for Miller on hand.

Cuts:

DE-Red Bryant - Yup.
DE-Chris Clemons - Probably.

DE-Michael Bennett - I hope he stays, but a lot of
FB-Michael Robinson
CB-Antoine Winfield
RT-Breno Giacomini
CB-Walter Thurmond
SS-Jeron Johnson
OG-Paul McQuistan
QB-Brady Quinn


Thanks for your comments, Kearly!

On Browner:

I think we tend to underrate Brandon Browner and the fact of the matter is Tharold Simon is yet unproven. Browner will be 29 at the end of his current contract and we haven't really seen signs of age slowing down his game. While a rich, long-term contract is probably ill-advised, I certainly wouldn't mind renting Browner for another season to see if one of Tharold Simon/Antone Exum can emerge as a capable replacement. Besides that, Browner simply deserves to be paid.

I do not understand salary/contract rules well enough to make a determination as to whether we have enough money. From what I understand, Sherman/ET's extensions wouldn't kick in until the 2015 season so wouldn't that allow us enough money to Franchise Tag BB?

Also, I am not so sure I agree with you on DB depth. Sure, we have depth today but we lose Winfield and Thurmond at the end of the season... if we also lose Browner, I think we are suddenly very thin at the position. Like you, I want to see us retain Thurmond but I think it would be foolish to pay him on potential... the reality is that he is probably worth a minimum contract and I could see other, needier teams, paying a premium and taking him away.

On Tate:

Personally, I like Tate more than I do Sidney Rice. I think Tate is a game-breaking talent and appears to be Wilson's favorite receiver. The issue here is that while Tate offers a lot, it still doesn't offer anything different (and likely much less) than the already richly paid Percy Harvin. We would have to cut one of Sidney Rice or Zach Miller to make space for Tate. If Bevell has any say, I think Rice and Harvin are here for the long haul.

IMO, drafting Chris Harper was also very instructive.

On Zach Miller:

Yeah the foot problems worry me, see Antonio Gates and his big drop off after being diagnosed with Plantar Fasciitis. I know Luke Willson needs to prove himself on the field but I think he will give us leverage to re-negotiate with Zach Miller, if Miller is not cut altogether. Luke was one of those that JS needed to have, a la Russell Wilson and Bruce Irvin. Let's not forget this guy is 6'6/250 with 4.5 wheels. Let's also not forget that he grew up playing hockey - which requires great balance and base strength... I think he surprises as an all-around TE, including blocking.
 

Attyla the Hawk

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Shows some promise. Great athleticism. But I haven't found any available game tape that isn't the highlight variety. Need to see where he struggles too.

Don't see a lot of deep out passes in his highlight package. Need to see him try and get balls in tight windows. He looks ok throwing to college open receivers. Not horribly accurately -- these guys are open enough that an accurate throw would result in significant YAC. A lot of underthrown passes to open deep receivers. Again though, it's a highlight package.

I'd like to see more. Looks worth watching this year. But I can't get a feel for him based on that video. Right now, I don't see the kind of passes that Wilson made routine against much better competition. So I wouldn't try to compare the two.

SDHawk":14yns8tk said:
Thanks for your comments, Kearly!

On Browner:

I think we tend to underrate Brandon Browner and the fact of the matter is Tharold Simon is yet unproven. Browner will be 29 at the end of his current contract and we haven't really seen signs of age slowing down his game. While a rich, long-term contract is probably ill-advised, I certainly wouldn't mind renting Browner for another season to see if one of Tharold Simon/Antone Exum can emerge as a capable replacement. Besides that, Browner simply deserves to be paid.

I don't see it as an under rating. I agree and have said elsewhere, that Browner has a chance to resign based on 2 factors. Neither of which have to do with his value to us: The first being age. Second being scheme fit. Age and poor fit is going to reduce the number of suitors for Browner's services. Most teams aren't set up to play the way we do. He's not a highly skilled cover guy and most schemes want that.

I agree, he deserves to get paid. But we've known all along, that the day would come where we had to let deserving and talented players walk because we can't pay them all. Browner's loss is absorbable. We have Lane and Simon waiting in the wings, and resigning Thurmond, if depth is needed, shouldn't be an obstacle at this point. In terms of quality depth -- CB is actually one of our deepest positions on the team. Seattle continues to stock the DB with talent every single year. You can lay money on it that we'll add someone next year too.

Browner is one of the guys you want to take care of. He's a guy who earned his way on the team. You want to reward that. I'm guessing we'll try, and likely harder than the typical 'if the price is right' kind of try. But if a team comes in from nowhere with a ridiculous offer, we need to let him walk with our thanks and gratitude.
 
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Attyla the Hawk":71ai7rz8 said:
Shows some promise. Great athleticism. But I haven't found any available game tape that isn't the highlight variety. Need to see where he struggles too.

Don't see a lot of deep out passes in his highlight package. Need to see him try and get balls in tight windows. He looks ok throwing to college open receivers. Not horribly accurately -- these guys are open enough that an accurate throw would result in significant YAC. A lot of underthrown passes to open deep receivers. Again though, it's a highlight package.

I'd like to see more. Looks worth watching this year. But I can't get a feel for him based on that video. Right now, I don't see the kind of passes that Wilson made routine against much better competition. So I wouldn't try to compare the two.

I saw a couple passes where he throws into tight windows with great force. Also, I think the "underthrown" passes were 45+ yard bombs in that highlight tape so I wouldn't question his arm strength.

If numbers could talk:

3373 yards passing, 68% completion, 8.3 YPA, 27 TDs: 9 INTs, 155 QBR
619 rushing yards, 4.8 YPC, 8 TDs
Won two games in OT
Lost two games by no more than 3 pts
 
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Attyla the Hawk":1atwpq59 said:
Browner is one of the guys you want to take care of. He's a guy who earned his way on the team. You want to reward that. I'm guessing we'll try, and likely harder than the typical 'if the price is right' kind of try. But if a team comes in from nowhere with a ridiculous offer, we need to let him walk with our thanks and gratitude.

Agree 100%

However on DB depth, again, assuming we lose Antoine Winfield, Walter Thurmond and Brandon Browner... I think we are dangerously thin. If I were to assume, like you, that Tharold Simon is ready to play at a pro-bowl level and perhaps Walter Thurmond is re-signed on the cheap, then maybe we can "absorb" the loss of Brandon Browner. Either way, I think its better safe than sorry.
 

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I think Browner had an amazing season last year, but at the same time, I feel Seattle is at a very strong position of strength depth-wise. You mention "what if's" regarding a multitude of injuries, but we already know the answer. Late last season, Seattle lost Browner, Trufant, and Thurmond all at the same time, and the secondary still played at an elite level.

I'd love to keep Browner on a short contract, but not for anything close to franchise tag money. Seattle can't budget that without cutting a couple good players to do it.

Regarding Tate, while it's true that he's similar to Harvin I don't think they will subtract from one another. Harvin will be a slot guy, and Tate will play outside. Pete even reached out to Tate right after the trade to let him know that the addition of Harvin wouldn't impact Tate's usage.

Harper is a huge project, and I'd argue he has a different skillset than Rice. I think if there's a guy on the current roster that could make Rice expendable, it's Stephen Williams if he takes the next step this season.

As far as I know, Miller doesn't have a roster bonus next year so there's no pressure to release him by a specific date. If Miller struggles with injury, I bet we'll see the team eyeball one of the top TEs in the late 1st round, and if successful in acquiring one, approach Miller with a restructure attempt at that time.
 

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pehawk":1gak9jun said:
Kearly, hermano, any early thoughts on Keeton? I see him climbing like Kaep, Manuel, Ponder (puke).

I think he's basically Mariota with less arm strength. He runs a lot which is a problem in a 200 pound body. His QB skills are a bit unrefined, he still looks like a college QB but he was only a sophomore. He doesn't at all seem like the kind of QB that would declare as a junior (he's a junior in 2013). He was a true sophomore in 2012 so he could potentially enter the draft as late as 2016 if he ends up red-shirting a year at some point.

I think he'll end up a mid-late round pick after he runs out of college eligibility, which would mean the 2015 or 2016 draft.
 
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kearly":3kraoji5 said:
I'd love to keep Browner on a short contract, but not for anything close to franchise tag money. Seattle can't budget that without cutting a couple good players to do it.

Are you certain of this? I tried to crunch some numbers and it looks like we'll be over $15mm under the cap if we cut both Red and Clem.

kearly":3kraoji5 said:
Regarding Tate, while it's true that he's similar to Harvin I don't think they will subtract from one another. Harvin will be a slot guy, and Tate will play outside. Pete even reached out to Tate right after the trade to let him know that the addition of Harvin wouldn't impact Tate's usage.

Never said that they would subtract from each other. My point is that have overlapping abilities and it wouldn't make much sense to tie up close to $20mm in two guys that offer similar skill sets.

kearly":3kraoji5 said:
Harper is a huge project, and I'd argue he has a different skillset than Rice. I think if there's a guy on the current roster that could make Rice expendable, it's Stephen Williams if he takes the next step this season.

I think drafting Chris Harper is an indication that Tate's future with the Hawks is fluid... nothing to do with Sidney Rice.

kearly":3kraoji5 said:
As far as I know, Miller doesn't have a roster bonus next year so there's no pressure to release him by a specific date. If Miller struggles with injury, I bet we'll see the team eyeball one of the top TEs in the late 1st round, and if successful in acquiring one, approach Miller with a restructure attempt at that time.

I think JS/PC took Luke Willson with the intention of making him a starter one day.
 
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USF coach on Aaron Lynch

"I tell Jim Harbaugh a lot that he reminds me of his guy Aldon Smith especially when they do a lot of those stunts, he's really good at that stuff. He can come in tight around that corner and he is really good with his hands. Except he's longer and taller (than Smith). He's not as fast as Jevon Kearse but he's built like him. And he is explosive.

The thing about Aaron is he can play DE or he can play D-tackle or stand up. We have different packages for him. He's such a good athlete that he can drop back in coverage. What's really impressive is he's playing outside backer and getting his hands on the No. 1 receiver and you're thinking 'Jeez! This guy can cover a lot of ground.'"



[youtube]T4-UOXKU_54[/youtube]
 

kearly

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SDHawk":37syzx5s said:
Are you certain of this? I tried to crunch some numbers and it looks like we'll be over $15mm under the cap if we cut both Red and Clem.

I guess that's true. Gotta start stockpiling that money to roll forward for Sherman and Wilson though. I also don't think Browner is worth $10 million for one season. Maybe for another team, but not for us. As good as he is, the performance drop off last year during his absence was remarkably small.

SDHawk":37syzx5s said:
Never said that they would subtract from each other. My point is that have overlapping abilities and it wouldn't make much sense to tie up close to $20mm in two guys that offer similar skill sets.

They play different roles though, so it would be inaccurate to say they overlap. Tate isn't Harvin's backup or anything like that. Both are starting WRs and there's no rule anywhere that says our offense only wants one YAC WR at a time. Also, Pete was asked this question recently and said that he feels Harvin and Tate have substantial differences. He said Tate was more of a pure WR whereas Harvin was more of a RB at WR. He was pretty clear in his response that he didn't feel that they were redundant.

Tate is way too good to let walk, IMO. #2 in catch rate in 2011 and #2 in YPT in 2012. If teams are throwing $9 million a year at him then yeah, Seattle might not have a choice. But I don't get the sense that will happen. It's pretty rare for a WR to see big money without posting a 1000 season.

SDHawk":37syzx5s said:
I think drafting Chris Harper is an indication that Tate's future with the Hawks is fluid... nothing to do with Sidney Rice.

I think Harper was selected because we didn't have a Chris Harper. NFL WRs at 230 pounds are pretty uncommon. Now if Harper really takes off and looks like he should be starting in 2014, then the team has some interesting choices to make, and one of those potential choices is letting Tate walk in FA.

That said, even polished college WRs typically take a couple years to get up to speed in the NFL, and Harper was one of the most unrefined WRs to get drafted in 2013, so I'm not really expecting Harper to force anyone out for at least a couple years. He has a different role than Tate or Rice too, so if the money works out, I could see Seattle keeping all three of them for the next few years.

SDHawk":37syzx5s said:
I think JS/PC took Luke Willson with the intention of making him a starter one day.

Absolutely, but he's not a replacement for Miller as they essentially play different positions. Miller is a dual-threat TE while Willson is a Joker-type. Maybe Anthony McCoy could replace Miller, but McCoy won't play this season and might be too much of an unknown. I think Miller is safe on this roster until we replace him with a similar kind of player that the team feels they can bank on (Austin Seferian Jenkins, etc).
 
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Good thoughts.

What are you feelings on some of the prospects mentioned here? I am particularly interested in what you think of Aaron Lynch and Antone Exum.
 
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kearly":1fgw2rxu said:
It's pretty rare for a WR to see big money without posting a 1000 season.

Percy Harvin would be one of those rare exceptions.

kearly":1fgw2rxu said:
I think Harper was selected because we didn't have a Chris Harper. NFL WRs at 230 pounds are pretty uncommon.

Yup, IIRC JS said that the Hawks went through a culture change when we traded for Marshawn. I think he values physicality at a big premium.
 

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If GMs are smarter than I think they are and listen to the stat geeks, Tate will get paid next year. I think more realistically, he'll just remain (in terms of perception) the "average" receiver who just happened to catch the Fail Mary. I'm guessing he'll get something along the lines of $3-5 million per year, though he deserves a bit more. If we could keep Tate for say 5/25, I think we'd be better to keep him, unless one of the other backups (Kearse, Stephens, Harper, etc) steps up in a huge way this season.

As far as the prospects, I'm on scout vacation right now. I'm still very much burned out from scouting a couple hundred players from January to April. 8)

I did like that you took a DE in the 1st round. I think pass rush will remain the top need next offseason (again).
 

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I like the 4th round selection of Antone Exum. I thought he was going to declare for the 2013 draft and was a little surprised he came back for his senior year. He definitely has the size and physicality that the Seahawks like in their CB's. I didn't realize he was 6-1 he looked a little shorter when I watched him last year.

I'll have to do my homework on the other players you selected, but good job on putting together a well thought out mock draft.
 
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