Let's Talk Mariners

SonicHawk · Jul 16, 2013

We almost have an order next year that is an MLB club:

(Insert speedy CF)
Nick Franklin 2B
Kyle Seager 3B
(Insert DH Power Hitter)
(Insert LF/RF)
Justin Smoak 1B
(Insert LF/RF)
Brad Miller SS
Mike Zunino C

SP:
Hernandez
Iwakuma
Walker
Paxton
Hultzen

hawkfan68 · Jul 16, 2013

I think that Kendrys Morales and Raul Ibanez producing in the middle of the lineup has a lot to do with the others playing well. They are seeing better pitches (ones they can hit) now. Keeping one, if not both, should be a priority.

m0ng0 · Jul 16, 2013

in addition to them I would include Morse

hawker84 · Jul 17, 2013

Speaking of Morse, what's his status?

Second half starting, should be interesting to see how these young bucks perform the rest of the way...

Smelly McUgly · Jul 17, 2013

I would be fine with a short-term deal for Morales. He's 31 and a power guy, so he's probably got two more years of solid production at best. Honestly, unless Seattle can trade Morales or Ibanez for a long-term starter in the OF (which is unlikely), I see no reason to trade either guy. I think it might be more important to get back to .500 by the end of the year and show some improvement than it is to get some life-long AA prospects or whatever.

I would be fine with trading Morse, however. In fact, can we undo that trade and have Jaso back to platoon with Zunino? No? OK, in that case, Morse can still go elsewhere. I would prefer an AAA prospect in the outfield that can actually compete for a spot next Spring Training.

Where is everyone on Iwakuma? I like the guy, though he seems to be coming back down to earth. I don't think he costs much, though, and I would not trade him unless someone was still into his first-half numbers and would trade big on the pretext of getting those numbers. Otherwise, he could be a fine 2/3 for next year depending on how Paxton, Hultzen, and Walker progress (though Hultzen being hurt again SUUUUUUCKS).

jkitsune · Jul 17, 2013

Smelly McUgly":21vawxmr said:
I would be fine with a short-term deal for Morales. He's 31 and a power guy, so he's probably got two more years of solid production at best. Honestly, unless Seattle can trade Morales or Ibanez for a long-term starter in the OF (which is unlikely), I see no reason to trade either guy. I think it might be more important to get back to .500 by the end of the year and show some improvement than it is to get some life-long AA prospects or whatever.

I would be fine with trading Morse, however. In fact, can we undo that trade and have Jaso back to platoon with Zunino? No? OK, in that case, Morse can still go elsewhere. I would prefer an AAA prospect in the outfield that can actually compete for a spot next Spring Training.

Where is everyone on Iwakuma? I like the guy, though he seems to be coming back down to earth. I don't think he costs much, though, and I would not trade him unless someone was still into his first-half numbers and would trade big on the pretext of getting those numbers. Otherwise, he could be a fine 2/3 for next year depending on how Paxton, Hultzen, and Walker progress (though Hultzen being hurt again SUUUUUUCKS).

I think you may be underestimating Morales - there are plenty of examples of DH/1b players producing at the plate well into their 30s (I'm not going to comment on Raul's ridiculous 41-year-old season, as that defies most explanation), and he may well be a productive hitter for longer than 2 years. Raul on the other hand is way more likely to come down to earth next year or the year after, based solely on age. His success this year is arguably the more abnormal of the two.

I think Iwakuma's a genuinely good pitcher who has sustained his success as a starter over a full season now and likely has several good years left. I don't think he can be expected to maintain his ridiculous BB/K rates and overall untouchability, but IMO the decision to keep him is fairly easy, particularly for a starting rotation that may be fielding 3 rookies next year who are more likely than not to struggle. That said, there are such things as offers too good to turn down, and he would obviously be a highly valued target.

Smelly McUgly · Jul 17, 2013

jkitsune: Fair points.

Re: Morales, it could just be my Richie Sexon-meter going off, but I do believe that power-guys that get their numbers through swinging a lot (and striking out a lot) tend to fall off quicker as they lose bat speed into their mid- and then late-30s. You are right that there are some examples of DH/1B types that hit well into their mid- or even late-30s (hey, Edgar was a solid producer through his age 40 season, going .294/.406/.489). However, I think those tend to be exceptions.

Furthermore, the power hitters that do make it are usually good at taking walks to make up for their loss of power - like Edgar. This is not one of Morales' strong suits, unfortunately (he's got a 25/66 BB/K ratio this year, so not good). If he can take more walks as he gets older, I would roll the dice on him through his age 34 year, but he hasn't shown an inclination to stop swinging so much. I mean, I think it's worth a risk because he won't cost that much, more than likely, but I don't think that I am underestimating power hitters that swing at everything THAT much. Maybe somewhat, but I feel like Morales does not have the skillset to compensate for his eventual loss of bat speed that is occurring even now.

Re: Iwakuma, I think you are right on this one. We are running Saunders and Harang out there now because we don't have many options in the first place. Even if two of Ramirez/Hultzen/Paxton/Walker are ready to go next year, it makes no sense to get rid of a low-cost SP that is a reliable #3 at worst. Iwakuma isn't the guy that he was over the first half of the season minus his last two starts, but he's definitely a good player. Keep him unless our socks get knocked off in a trade offer.

I felt this way about Fister a couple years ago, and I think Iwakuma deserves that sort of approach as well.

jkitsune · Jul 17, 2013

Smelly McUgly":3m6j9wnn said:
jkitsune: Fair points.

Re: Morales, it could just be my Richie Sexon-meter going off, but I do believe that power-guys that get their numbers through swinging a lot (and striking out a lot) tend to fall off quicker as they lose bat speed into their mid- and then late-30s. You are right that there are some examples of DH/1B types that hit well into their mid- or even late-30s (hey, Edgar was a solid producer through his age 40 season, going .294/.406/.489). However, I think those tend to be exceptions.

Furthermore, the power hitters that do make it are usually good at taking walks to make up for their loss of power - like Edgar. This is not one of Morales' strong suits, unfortunately (he's got a 25/66 BB/K ratio this year, so not good). If he can take more walks as he gets older, I would roll the dice on him through his age 34 year, but he hasn't shown an inclination to stop swinging so much. I mean, I think it's worth a risk because he won't cost that much, more than likely, but I don't think that I am underestimating power hitters that swing at everything THAT much. Maybe somewhat, but I feel like Morales does not have the skillset to compensate for his eventual loss of bat speed that is occurring even now.

Re: Iwakuma, I think you are right on this one. We are running Saunders and Harang out there now because we don't have many options in the first place. Even if two of Ramirez/Hultzen/Paxton/Walker are ready to go next year, it makes no sense to get rid of a low-cost SP that is a reliable #3 at worst. Iwakuma isn't the guy that he was over the first half of the season minus his last two starts, but he's definitely a good player. Keep him unless our socks get knocked off in a trade offer.

I felt this way about Fister a couple years ago, and I think Iwakuma deserves that sort of approach as well.

You make good points. I went back and reviewed Morales' numbers, and think that I agree with you. That said, it's hard to judge given his injury history and the gap between full seasons, what his real baseline ability is. Morales hits for a higher average but also takes fewer walks than Sexson did in his prime. It may actually not be a great idea to predict Morales will be productive for more than a couple seasons. That said, as I believe you originally stated as well, keeping him around isn't such a bad idea. So, touche.

I'm not sure I've ever had a web forum interaction where both parties change their opinions an equal amount. Cheers.

CrimsonWazzu · Jul 19, 2013

On Ibanez, I can't reasonably believe any team would make a substantial prospect offer in trade for him. And if I'm Jack Z and Wedge, I'm giving a lot more weight to Raul's value than just his production. Looking at his leadership, teaching efforts, and the overall chemistry of the team that he's been a vital element to building; to carry that 2 or 3 more years with him wanting to be in Seattle until he hangs it up, I'm not looking to trade him given what you could expect to receive in return.

Perez, Morse, Morales, Saunders, Ryan and Wilhelmsen....sure.

I'd like to keep Morales, I think his best years are ahead of him, and we should get him at the right price. But if a good offer is made, by all means, ask for a little more and see what happens.

Happypuppy · Jul 19, 2013

I don't see Ibanez getting moved. He gets people filling seats. He is a league leader in HRs at his age which peaks interest.

Morales if he is a able to get resigned at a decent price is a good idea. Right now we need major league average players. We can groom or pick upper superior major leaguers as time goes on. We have ( I hope) some players to build on now at least.

CrimsonWazzu · Jul 19, 2013

Larry Stone ‏@StoneLarry 50m

More from Raul on being traded to playoff contender: "I would say it’s July and why can’t we do that here? That would be my response."

CPHawk · Jul 19, 2013

You aren't going to get any high level prospect for either guy, and you have no HR hitters coming up from the minors. Try and keep both guys

davidonmi · Jul 19, 2013

So nice to see the bottom of the order score 4 runs there, so much different from the start of the year when we were batting shoppach, Ryan, and andino

425HawkSpark · Jul 19, 2013

Miller and Franklin are going to be studs for us. Miller has as good of range as Ryan has.

Smelly McUgly · Jul 19, 2013

Screw it, I'm taking the plunge. I am ALL IN on Brad Miller.

jkitsune: Thanks for the discussion. I like to hear perspectives from other people. About the only thing I know is that I don't know that much about many topics, and baseball is one of 'em.

dumbrabbit · Jul 19, 2013

Smelly McUgly":2ap3r4ep said:
Screw it, I'm taking the plunge. I am ALL IN on Brad Miller.

jkitsune: Thanks for the discussion. I like to hear perspectives from other people. About the only thing I know is that I don't know that much about many topics, and baseball is one of 'em.

I'll raise you Miller as well.

m0ng0 · Jul 20, 2013

I have even come around on Smoak! Ackley is the piece that needs to put up or move on now. We are creeping up towards .500 which was my expectation for the year with Saunders, Harrang and whatever other scrub we can throw at teams. If the offense continues to gel and we can start to mix in the young guns (when deemed ready) to the back end of the rotation we could be pretty good next year.

chris98251 · Jul 20, 2013

Tell me how well we are playing when the sun goes down, our improved hitting has happened just about the time the weather here has got hot, ball carries a lot better. I am glad the youngsters are getting better, but consistent play over months and not weeks is the next step and in the heavy weather of fall and early spring. I know the Mariners had the hottest or one of the hottest offense's in July so far.

Lithium · Jul 20, 2013

The M's are so hot they got 1 hit and are winning 4-2.

m0ng0 · Jul 20, 2013

hahaha I was just about to say the same thing !

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