Who wins the NFC south?

Scottemojo · Jul 26, 2013

I can't make heads or tails of who will take the dirty south.

Tampa has some talent, I am uncertain about their coaching.

Atlanta just does not inspire me. I don't trust that D.

The Saint were a record bad D last year. Does a return to attack D make that much difference?

The Panthers seem poised for a good season, but that offense still feels one dimensional.

I really can't decide how this one unfolds.

volsunghawk · Jul 26, 2013

All I know is that if the Falcons repeat as division champs, it will be the first time any team in that division has won back-to-back titles since realignment in 2002.

If you believe in trends, that should be enough to make you bet against Atlanta repeating.

Scottemojo · Jul 26, 2013

I don't believe in trends. I do believe the Falcons are built to be a regular season tiger, they have the targets to tear up the rest of the south's secondaries. But so do the Saints. And the Bucs. The division has 4 good QBs, though I think Schiano is misguided in the way he is trying to motivate Josh Freeman to be a hard worker.

Stephen SeaHawking · Jul 26, 2013

Can't wait to get another shot at Atlanta this season!

Sarlacc83 · Jul 26, 2013

I'm not betting against the Saints. You just know that Sean Payton is raring to run up the score this year.

RolandDeschain · Jul 26, 2013

Yeah, Payton wants revenge on everybody, I think. I'm going with the Saints.

heyu123 · Jul 26, 2013

I think Tampa has quickly become the most overrated team in the nfc. I certainly do not put them or Carolina near the falcons.

The saints however are an interesting case. They started to play a bit better at the second half of last year and Payton is returning. That offense figures to go back to being elite and one of the best in the NFL. I think that'll be enough to win them a lot of football games.

Still I'd pick Atlanta though. I do like the saints to win 10 or so games however.

RolandDeschain · Jul 26, 2013

Anybody betting on Atlanta to win the division, I request that you look at the final score - and late 4th quarter situations - the Falcons were in last year. They were a handful of plays from having 9 or 10 wins instead of 13, and considering they also had a creampuff schedule, I'm pretty sure they will max out at 11 wins this year. Maybe 9-10. Atlanta nearly lost several games to mediocre or flat-out bad opponents in 2012.

NinerBuff · Jul 26, 2013

Toss up between ATL and NO, but I don't think any team in that division will be bad, which will mean that there wont be a great record coming out of the NFC South (like last year).

ATL: 10-6
NO: 10-6
CAR: 9-7
TB: 7-9

NinerBuff · Jul 26, 2013

RolandDeschain":2aftpbob said:
Anybody betting on Atlanta to win the division, I request that you look at the final score - and late 4th quarter situations - the Falcons were in last year. They were a handful of plays from having 9 or 10 wins instead of 13, and considering they also had a creampuff schedule, I'm pretty sure they will max out at 11 wins this year. Maybe 9-10. Atlanta nearly lost several games to mediocre or flat-out bad opponents in 2012.

You could make the same argument for the 2011 Niners... we were 13-3 that year and won a bunch of close games... I see them winning 10 this year, as they regress slightly, but I still think ATL and NO make the playoffs.

RolandDeschain · Jul 26, 2013

NinerBuff":3dwank35 said:
You could make the same argument for the 2011 Niners... we were 13-3 that year and won a bunch of close games... I see them winning 10 this year, as they regress slightly, but I still think ATL and NO make the playoffs.

Funny you mention that; I did make that point about the 2011 49ers during that following offseason. I didn't mean it as an insult then, and I don't mean it as one now toward the Falcons, but I bring it up because it's a valid point of discussion. I think the Falcons will make the playoffs as well, but I would be absolutely floored - I mean that literally, my jaw will be on the ground, and everything - if the Falcons manage to get 13 wins again this year. In fact, if I could get 2-1 odds betting against that in Vegas, I would sell my car to make a huge bet. The Falcons only played THREE TEAMS that finished the year with winning records last year. THREE! The Broncos, Giants, and Foreskins. Every other opponent had a losing record except Dallas, which finished 8-8.

In 2013, however, their schedule is tougher. The Saints definitely won't be a losing team again. The Panthers may or may not be. They also have to play the 49ers and Packers on the road, they play the Seahawks in Atlanta, and they play the Rams, Patriots, and Redskins in Atlanta.

13-3-peat? Not on your life. They may still win the division, but they aren't getting 13 wins.

Also, the close calls last year for the Falcons in games they won, but barely: 30-28 over the Panthers, 23-20 over the Raiders, 24-23 over the Bucs, and the wins over the Broncos and Cowboys were both by 6 points. For a team that received (yes, received; not 'earned') the #1 playoff seed in the NFC, they sure weren't very dominant. The 2005 Seahawks that went 13-3 and went to the Super Bowl averaged 28.25 points per game, and that was with a run-based offense. Matt Ryan's passing offense with two elite receivers averaged 26.18 points per game last year, and played all of 3 opponents with winning records. Comparatively, in 2005, the Seahawks faced 5 opponents with winning records that year, including a win over the Colts who were 14-2 that year.

Anybody that wants to tell me how elite the Falcons are can listen to me fall asleep and start snoring, instead.

NinerBuff · Jul 26, 2013

RolandDeschain":lodsecqy said:
NinerBuff":lodsecqy said:

You could make the same argument for the 2011 Niners... we were 13-3 that year and won a bunch of close games... I see them winning 10 this year, as they regress slightly, but I still think ATL and NO make the playoffs.

Click to expand...

Funny you mention that; I did make that point about the 2011 49ers during that following offseason. I didn't mean it as an insult then, and I don't mean it as one now toward the Falcons, but I bring it up because it's a valid point of discussion. I think the Falcons will make the playoffs as well, but I would be absolutely floored - I mean that literally, my jaw will be on the ground, and everything - if the Falcons manage to get 13 wins again this year. In fact, if I could get 2-1 odds betting against that in Vegas, I would sell my car to make a huge bet. The Falcons only played THREE TEAMS that finished the year with winning records last year. THREE! The Broncos, Giants, and Foreskins. Every other opponent had a losing record except Dallas, which finished 8-8.

In 2013, however, their schedule is tougher. The Saints definitely won't be a losing team again. The Panthers may or may not be. They also have to play the 49ers and Packers on the road, they play the Seahawks in Atlanta, and they play the Rams, Patriots, and Redskins in Atlanta.

13-3-peat? Not on your life. They may still win the division, but they aren't getting 13 wins.

Also, the close calls last year for the Falcons in games they won, but barely: 30-28 over the Panthers, 23-20 over the Raiders, 24-23 over the Bucs, and the wins over the Broncos and Cowboys were both by 6 points. For a team that received (yes, received; not 'earned') the #1 playoff seed in the NFC, they sure weren't very dominant. The 2005 Seahawks that went 13-3 and went to the Super Bowl averaged 28.25 points per game, and that was with a run-based offense. Matt Ryan's passing offense with two elite receivers averaged 26.18 points per game last year, and played all of 3 opponents with winning records. Comparatively, in 2005, the Seahawks faced 5 opponents with winning records that year, including a win over the Colts who were 14-2 that year.

Anybody that wants to tell me how elite the Falcons are can listen to me fall asleep and start snoring, instead.

You make a lot of good points, and it wouldn't surprise me if NO wins the division, but still, in a passing league, when you can throw to Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez, you will be formiddable, even with a piss-poor defense.

Now, their schedule is brutal, probably one of the hardest (other than you guys

) in the league. I agree there will be a regression to the mean, but I still look at them as a 10+ win team.

heyu123 · Jul 26, 2013

Sure they won't win 13 games again. I wouldn't bet on ANY team to go 13-3. Much less two years in a row.

But you sound so confident they won't win the division, iro . Why is NO a better bet? The falcons still profile as a solid 11 ish win team. I think NO falls short of that ultimately. I'd pencil them around 10

RolandDeschain · Jul 26, 2013

NinerBuff":28ggkuit said:
Now, their schedule is brutal, probably one of the hardest (other than you guys ) in the league.

I'd like to take this opportunity to say SCREW YOU GUYS and your schedule. A couple 10am games, (the mighty Jaguars and Bucs, man, you guys have no chance at winning those) and all of your difficult opponents at home compared to our five 10am games, and all of our difficult opponents on the road. We get the Saints and Vikings at home, but come on, the Vikings with a regular Adrian Peterson instead of bionic man-AP, and Christian Ponder being Christian Ponder without Percy Harvin, and they're not going to the playoffs this year. (I'm slightly bitter about this, obviously. It feels like the NFL wants to help San Francisco return to the NFCCG/Super Bowl.)

The only two opponents you guys face on the road that will likely have winning records this year are the Foreskins and Saints, and neither is a 10am game. The Seahawks, on the other hand, face the Colts and Texans at 10am for both games in back-to-back weeks, @ Falcons at 10am, and then later on, @49ers at 1pm and then @ Giants at 10am the next week.

Four 10am games against winning opponents. Suck my Johnson, NFL schedulers.

I'll finish by saying one thing; if the Seahawks win the division this year, there will be no excuses or arguments any 49ers fan on the planet can make about it.

NinerBuff · Jul 26, 2013

RolandDeschain":2nkyxeoi said:
NinerBuff":2nkyxeoi said:

Now, their schedule is brutal, probably one of the hardest (other than you guys ) in the league.

Click to expand...

I'd like to take this opportunity to say SCREW YOU GUYS and your schedule. A couple 10am games, (the mighty Jaguars and Bucs, man, you guys have no chance at winning those) and all of your difficult opponents at home compared to our five 10am games, and all of our difficult opponents on the road. We get the Saints and Vikings at home, but come on, the Vikings with a regular Adrian Peterson instead of bionic man-AP, and Christian Ponder being Christian Ponder without Percy Harvin, and they're not going to the playoffs this year. (I'm slightly bitter about this, obviously. It feels like the NFL wants to help San Francisco return to the NFCCG/Super Bowl.)

The only two opponents you guys face on the road that will likely have winning records this year are the Foreskins and Saints, and neither is a 10am game. The Seahawks, on the other hand, face the Colts and Texans at 10am for both games in back-to-back weeks, @ Falcons at 10am, and then later on, @49ers at 1pm and then @ Giants at 10am the next week.

Four 10am games against winning opponents. Suck my Johnson, NFL schedulers.

I'll finish by saying one thing; if the Seahawks win the division this year, there will be no excuses or arguments any 49ers fan on the planet can make about it.

I would be pissed too... Colts / Texans / Giants / Falcons all at 10am is brutal... And honestly, with 5 or so really good NFC teams, road records could be the difference between home field in the playoffs, which is obviously a big deal, and more so for you guys.

The only thing I will say, is "what is" is usually different than "what we think" at the beginning of the season... still, hard to imagine those teams struggling.

RolandDeschain · Jul 26, 2013

Oh, I completely agree with the what is/what we think thing. There are surprises every year, and one thing that has been proven time and again is that you cannot accurately judge schedule difficulty in advance. You can only use it as a statistic after the fact, once you know how all your opponents "shook out" that year.

As it looks now, though...Bah.

MizzouHawkGal · Jul 26, 2013

I think Atlanta takes the division but New Orleans will make it interesting. I would be more sure about New Orleans except the fact that Rob Ryan's scheme is not a quick learning process and I don't think they have the right personnel for it right now.

No way does Atlanta goes 13-3 this year their schedule is too nasty for that. 10-11 wins are doable though.

JSeahawks · Jul 26, 2013

NinerBuff":13jh7zgm said:
Toss up between ATL and NO, but I don't think any team in that division will be bad, which will mean that there wont be a great record coming out of the NFC South (like last year).

ATL: 10-6
NO: 10-6
CAR: 9-7
TB: 7-9

That's pretty much the exact same way that I see it.

Scottemojo · Jul 26, 2013

I have been mulleting this over, and I think Schiano loses his team this year. He is the anti-Pete, so I have to hate him.
Payton does want to lay waste to the NFL, but he will have to do it at 40 points a game. His new D coordinator sucked with the Cowboys, and they have more 3-4 talent than the Saints.

The Falcons do have a tougher schedule, but the entire south has to play the west, so they all have a tougher schedule. The Falcons are more talented than the rest, but I don't trust their linebackers and secondary.

I differ with a few of you on Cam Newton, who I think is a clown. I do really like the Panthers D, though. And the linemen they lost last year are healthy.

I like in this order
Falcons
Panthers
Saints
Bucs.

kearly · Jul 26, 2013

Probably Atlanta. They are tailor made for regular season success (elite pass offense). They added some nice pieces on pass defense too, assuming Trufant ever signs his contract. They rarely lose at home.

The biggest challenger is Carolina. They should have swept Atlanta last season, their offense is dangerous (in the unpredictable sense), and their defense finished with a higher weighted DVOA than Seattle's. Their running offense is more than respectable, even after their RB group took a big step back last season. In many ways, they were 2012's version of the 2011 Seahawks. I see them coming up just short of the division to Atlanta, but it will be a tough fight. I think Carolina is the other wildcard team (Sea/SF) out of the NFC.

The Saints are getting their coach back, but it's not like Brees was crappy last season. He was still damn good, but that defense was a disaster. The Saints remind me of the post-Warner Rams, dangerous, but too flawed to mount a winning record (after 2003).

Tampa has a great running back and some big names in their secondary. Oh, and a really good run defense. Vincent Jackson. I like Schiano (competitive guy). But the only way Tampa wins the division though is if Freeman can get hot and stay hot for 16 games, something he's never done before. I think if Tampa has a chance to move up for a QB like Bridgewater next year, they'll do it. I think Tampa probably finishes 6-10 or 7-9, but there is scary upside on that roster. For about 5 weeks last season, Freeman looked unbeatable. I think there is maybe a 10% chance that Tampa could be better this season than Seattle. That's how good they can be if everything breaks right.

Who wins the NFC south?

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