Rainger
Well-known member
Those who wanted the Seahawks to replace Geno Smith: A word, please
Most of the mainstream media, social media, and even 12s were adamant that the Seahawks couldn’t go with Geno Smith. Could we have a word?Come on, admit it. You were screaming that the Seahawks were doomed when they let Russell Wilson walk. You screamed even louder when the Hawks said they had their QB in camp. That it was perennial backup Geno Smith made some people lose their minds. Surely the Hawks would sign Baker Mayfield. Or failing that, Jimmy Garappolo. If I may, I’d like to have a word with you.
Now, I don’t claim that I knew Geno Smith would play this well. I can, however, attest that I thought he would be just fine as the Seahawks signal caller. Our own Michael Thompson expertly broke down why Smith would succeed this season. As for me, no, I didn’t predict Geno would lead the NFL in completion percentage. I didn’t think he’d lead the league in passer rating, either, but here we are.
Geno Smith is the quarterback the Seahawks need
But I did say, most emphatically, that the Seahawks absolutely did not need to sign Baker Mayfield. My reasoning was that at best, he’d add maybe two games to the Seattle win column. If he did that, he’d demand a huge contract for 2023. At that point, the Hawks might as well have kept Wilson in town. The exact same issue pertained to Jimmy Garappolo.Who cares if Seattle goes 8-9 instead of 6-11? All that would do is drop the team’s draft order. That tiny improvement wouldn’t be sustainable, because the team wouldn’t keep the rental QB in either case.
So, let’s get to the heart of the issue. I’ll throw in the Hawks former QB, future Hall of Famer Russell Wilson. You know, the guy who was going to save Denver and take them to the Super Bowl, after he led Seattle to a 7-10 record. Okay, enough of that.
Let’s get mathy! A couple of notes: the touchdown and interception rates are based on attempts. I’m sure you know YAC, but if not, it’s yards the receiver gained on their own after the catch. AY/Cmp is the average yards the ball traveled before the catch was made. Okay, 12s, guess who is who.
Player Comp% Yds/Rcp TD% INT% Sack% AY/Cmp YAC avg Pass Rating QBR
A 54.7 11.7 3.4 2.6 8.6 4.5 7.2 75.0 15.3
B 77.3 10.2 4.5 1.5 4.3 6.4 3.7 108.0 72.4
C 61.0 8.0 3.9 1.3 6.1 3.2 7.7 93.2 33.2
D 61.1 7.7 3.1 0.8 8.4 6.5 5.7 91.1 44.9
Geno Smith is playing far above most expectations
I imagine that gaudy 77.3 percent completion rate gives it away, but if not, Player B is Geno Smith. Player A is Mayfield, C is Garoppolo, and D is Wilson. All stats are from pro-football-reference.com. One reason I included the air yards before the catch is that it helps to show who’s being helped by receivers who routinely turn short passes into big gains. Yeah, I’m looking at you, Jimmy G.I know what you’re thinking, 12s. Sure, the passer rating is great (third in the league). Yeah, that QBR is okay, too (fifth in the NFL). But hey, look at that dismal YAC! You’re right, that 3.7-yard average is bad. Here’s the funny thing about that: the Hawks have been dismal in that department for years. Last season, their 5.4 YAC ranked 12th, but in 2020, they ranked 24th. The Hawks ranked 23rd and 25th in 2019 and 2018. Somehow, I don’t think Geno Smith had anything to do with those stats.
Let’s check a few more fun stats, shall we? I won’t be coy here; by now you should realize Geno Smith is going to look pretty good here, too. We’ll look at the percentages of passes dropped, passes deemed on target, total pressures on the QB, and average yards gained per scramble.
Player Drop% OnTrgt% Press% Scrmbl Avg
Baker 6.3 61.3 17.9 6.0
Geno 0.8 82.9 21.8 11.8
Jimmy 5.2 44.2 14.5 3.0
Russell 8.7 77.0 29.1 6.5
Geno Smith is more than a game manager
Yup, I was lazy and just put those stats in alphabetical order the first time, too. Now, let’s dive a little deeper. That zero-point-eight percent figure for drops on Geno’s throws is not a typo. Neither is the abysmal 44.2 percent rate of Jimmy’s on-target throws.Yes, Tyler Lockett and Will Dissly definitely help Geno’s terrific drop rate. But it certainly helps that more than four out of every five passes are right where they’re supposed to be. Those are pretty much ultimate game manager numbers, right?
Here’s the thing: Smith is much more than that. Another note of interest – Smith is gaining nearly double the yardage on his scrambles as his rivals. Take a look at the stats on QB pressures. In raw numbers, Russell Wilson has been pressured 44 times compared to Smith’s 31. Wasn’t the whole problem with the DangeRuss one getting pressured so often that the offensive line was bad? Looks like he took that aspect of his game to Denver.
I didn’t set out to prove that Geno Smith is playing better than his predecessor in Seattle – although he clearly is so far this season. No, the point is that Mayfield and Garopollo have shown they wouldn’t have been any better than Smith. Sure, the season is early. We’re only 23.53 percent through the season – by the way, thanks NFL, for hating easy calculations. But so far, number 7 is looking pretty sharp.
We may not have expected this level of play from Geno Smith, but he certainly did. When asked if he’d exceeded his expectations this season, Smith sounded like a quarterback in command. In his post-game press conference after the Seahawks wild win over the Lions, Smith replied, “No, I can play better. Definitely not exceeding my expectations. I can play a lot better.” I’m pretty confident that Smith is a better answer than any of those supposedly great alternatives.
Those who wanted the Seahawks to replace Geno Smith: A word, please
Most of the mainstream media, social media, and even 12s were adamant that the Seahawks couldn't go with Geno Smith. Could we have a word? Come on, admit i...
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