RedAlice
Well-known member
This may be more of a mathematical or esoteric exercise, but it is a bit of rabbit hole fun...
There is a scenario in which the Rams and the Seahawks can remain tied after week 18 even after applying the first 6 tiebreaks and it is not entirely unlikely.
For context, here are the first 6 tiebreaks:
Tiebreak 1 would land both teams at 50% after splitting their games (Rams won their last encounter).
Tiebreak 2 would land both teams at 4-2 (66.67%) since in this scenario the Seahawks beat the Cardinals x 2, the 49ers x 1 and the Rams x 1 while the Rams beat the 49ers x 2, the Cardinals x 1 and the Seahawks x 1.
Tiebreak 3 and forward is going to require more detailed calculations, so let’s jump into them. First, let’s list the teams in common between both teams. They are:
Tiebreak 4 includes all conference games and both Rams and Seahawks would land at 6-6 since in this scenario the Rams won against the 49ers x 2, Vikings, Seahawks, Saints and Cardinals and lost to the Lions, Cardinals, Bears, Packers, Eagles and Seahawks while the Seahawks won against the Falcons, 49ers, Cardinals x 2, Bears and Rams and lost against the Lions, Giants, 49ers, Rams, Packers and Vikings.
Tiebreak 5 involves the SoV which is the win percentage calculated from the combined win-loss record of the teams the Rams and the Seahawks beat. In this scenario, the Rams beat the 49ers x 2, Raiders, Vikings, Seahawks, Patriots, Saints, Bills, Jets and Cardinals and the Seahawks beat the Broncos, Patriots, Dolphins, Falcons, 49ers, Cardinals x 2, Jets, Bears and Rams. Things get a bit complicated since we have to assume results for the following two weeks but most of these assumptions are reasonable and some are uncertain/questionable. The assumptions are the following:
Now, for tiebreak 6, which involves the SoS, we can focus exclusively on comparing the record of the teams not in common between Rams and Seahawks. The teams not in common for the Rams are the Raiders, the Saints and the Eagles and the teams not in common for the Seahawks are the Broncos, the Giants and the Falcons. In this scenario, these three teams for each team would have a combined record of 23-28 assuming the Eagles win the last 2 (Cowboys and Giants) for a record of 14-3 and the Giants lose the last 2 (Colts and Eagles) for a record of 2-15.
The most critical games are probably Vikings vs Packers and Broncos vs Chiefs. The first one feels like any team can win while the second one the Broncos have a chance to win, in particular if the Chiefs decide to rest their starters after securing the first seed in the AFC. The other games that could be critical are the ones played by the Falcons but considering that it is possible that the Eagles secure the NFC East before the Commanders play against the Falcons, it is possible the Commanders take it a bit easier having secured the 7th seed on the NFC and who knows in what could end up the game against the Panthers.
There is a scenario in which the Rams and the Seahawks can remain tied after week 18 even after applying the first 6 tiebreaks and it is not entirely unlikely.
For context, here are the first 6 tiebreaks:
- Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
- Strength of victory (SoV).
- Strength of schedule (SoS).
Tiebreak 1 would land both teams at 50% after splitting their games (Rams won their last encounter).
Tiebreak 2 would land both teams at 4-2 (66.67%) since in this scenario the Seahawks beat the Cardinals x 2, the 49ers x 1 and the Rams x 1 while the Rams beat the 49ers x 2, the Cardinals x 1 and the Seahawks x 1.
Tiebreak 3 and forward is going to require more detailed calculations, so let’s jump into them. First, let’s list the teams in common between both teams. They are:
- Lions
- Cardinals x 2
- 49ers x 2
- Bears
- Packers
- Vikings
- Dolphins
- Patriots
- Bills
- Jets
Tiebreak 4 includes all conference games and both Rams and Seahawks would land at 6-6 since in this scenario the Rams won against the 49ers x 2, Vikings, Seahawks, Saints and Cardinals and lost to the Lions, Cardinals, Bears, Packers, Eagles and Seahawks while the Seahawks won against the Falcons, 49ers, Cardinals x 2, Bears and Rams and lost against the Lions, Giants, 49ers, Rams, Packers and Vikings.
Tiebreak 5 involves the SoV which is the win percentage calculated from the combined win-loss record of the teams the Rams and the Seahawks beat. In this scenario, the Rams beat the 49ers x 2, Raiders, Vikings, Seahawks, Patriots, Saints, Bills, Jets and Cardinals and the Seahawks beat the Broncos, Patriots, Dolphins, Falcons, 49ers, Cardinals x 2, Jets, Bears and Rams. Things get a bit complicated since we have to assume results for the following two weeks but most of these assumptions are reasonable and some are uncertain/questionable. The assumptions are the following:
- The 49ers lose the last 2 (Lions and Cardinals).
- The Cardinals lose to the Rams and win against the 49ers.
- The Saints lose against the Packers (end of week 16), win against the Raiders and lose against the Buccaneers.
- The Raiders lose the last 2 (Saints and Chargers).
- The Vikings win against the Packers and lose against the Lions.
- The Bills win the last 2 (Jets and Patriots).
- The Bears lose against the Seahawks and win against the Packers.
- The Broncos win the last 2 (Bengals and Chiefs).
- The Dolphins win the last 2 (Browns and Jets).
- The Falcons win the last 2 (Commanders and Panthers).
- 49ers: 6-11
- Raiders: 3-14
- Vikings: 14-3
- Seahawks: 10-7
- Rams: 10-7
- Patriots: 3-14
- Saints: 6-11
- Bills: 14-3
- Jets: 4-11
- Cardinals: 8-9
- Broncos: 11-6
- Dolphins: 9-8
- Falcons: 10-7
- Bears: 5-12
Now, for tiebreak 6, which involves the SoS, we can focus exclusively on comparing the record of the teams not in common between Rams and Seahawks. The teams not in common for the Rams are the Raiders, the Saints and the Eagles and the teams not in common for the Seahawks are the Broncos, the Giants and the Falcons. In this scenario, these three teams for each team would have a combined record of 23-28 assuming the Eagles win the last 2 (Cowboys and Giants) for a record of 14-3 and the Giants lose the last 2 (Colts and Eagles) for a record of 2-15.
The most critical games are probably Vikings vs Packers and Broncos vs Chiefs. The first one feels like any team can win while the second one the Broncos have a chance to win, in particular if the Chiefs decide to rest their starters after securing the first seed in the AFC. The other games that could be critical are the ones played by the Falcons but considering that it is possible that the Eagles secure the NFC East before the Commanders play against the Falcons, it is possible the Commanders take it a bit easier having secured the 7th seed on the NFC and who knows in what could end up the game against the Panthers.
