Interesting facts about good DEs drafted outside the 1st Rnd

Matt Judon, Preston Smith, and Za'Darius Smith are all fairly successful DEs in the NFL. So I went back and looked at their combine profiles, and draft status.

It's interesting that these guys has some positive indicators, that it looks like teams ignored. Good combine, success at the College level, East-West Shrine Game, and Senior Bowl.

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Za'Darius Smith #55 OLB Height: 6-4 Weight: 272 Age: 27

Born: 9/8/1992 Montgomery , AL College: Kentucky Experience: 5th season

Draft 2015 Pick No.122 Selected By: Baltimore Ravens Round: 4

Pick (Overall): 23 (122)

Pick Analysis: Selected Defensive MVP of East-West Shrine Game and was a late addition to Senior Bowl roster. Played in all 24 games at Kentucky after transferring from East Mississippi Community College, where he was selected second-team NJCAA All-American in 2012. Grew up playing basketball and began playing football his senior season at Greenville High School (Ala.). Older brother, Bob Meeks, played center at Auburn and for Denver Broncos. Smith briefly played AAU basketball with Wildcats teammate Bud Dupree as youth.


Preston Smith #91 OLB Height: 6-5 Weight: 265 Age: 27

Born: 11/17/1992 Lithonia , GA College: Mississippi State Experience: 5th season

Draft 2015 Pick No.38 Selected By: Washington Redskins Round: 2

Pick (Overall): 6 (38)

Pick Analysis: Recorded 5 tackles (one sack) in the 2015 Senior Bowl. Started all 13 games in 2014 and led team with 15 tackles for loss and 9 sacks en route to being selected first-team All-SEC. Had an interception return for a touchdown against UAB. In 2013, played in 12 games (11 starts) and made 44 tackles, including 6.5 for loss (2.5 sacks). Selected Most Outstanding Defensive Player of the Liberty Bowl in win over Rice. In 2012, played in 13 games and led team with 4.5 sacks. Made 11 starts in 2011.


Matt Judon #99 OLB Height: 6-3 Weight: 261 Age: 27

College: Grand Valley State Experience: 4th season

Draft 2016 Pick No.146 Selected By: Baltimore Ravens Round: 5

Pick (Overall): 7 (146)

Pick Analysis: This Michigan native earned just about every honor he could for his play in 2015. He won the Gene Upshaw Trophy as Division II's top lineman and was named the Great Lakes Intercollegiate Athletic Conference's (GLIAC) Defensive Lineman of the Year and Associated Press Little All-American squad. He led all of college football with 20 sacks among his 23.5 tackles for loss, made 81 total tackles and forced three fumbles. Judon showed promise beating D2 tackles off the edge with length and speed as a junior, as well, winning first team All-GLIAC honors with 19 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks, and four forced fumbles. All of this success came after losing four games in the middle of the 2012 season (seven TFL, 3.5 sacks) and all but the first seven plays of the 2013 season with injuries.

Here's someone that lasted until pick 22

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Bud Dupree #48 OLB Height: 6-4 Weight: 269 Age: 27

College: Kentucky Experience: 5th season Draft 2015 Pick No.22 Round: 1

Pick (Overall): 22 (22)

Pick Analysis: Was a team captain in 2014. Finished his senior season with 7.5 sacks and 23.5 for his career, which was the most by any active SEC player. He finished second on the team in tackles with 74, including 12.5 tackles for loss. Had his first career interception against South Carolina and returned it six yards for the game-winning touchdown. Started the final 38 games of his career and had 36 tackles for loss in his 45-game career. Was a quarterfinalist for the LOTT Trophy, given to a student-athlete that embodies integrity, maturity, performance, academics, community and tenacity. First-team all-state in Georgia, where he was a four-year starter at tight end and a three-year starter at defensive end. Had 10 receiving touchdowns and 10 sacks as a senior. Also won a state title in basketball.

Matt Judon Combine:

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/mat ... id=2555505



Bud Dupree Combine:

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/bud ... id=2552289



Preston Smith Combine:

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/pre ... id=2552276



Za'Darius Smith Combine:

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/za' ... id=2552279

Was a big fan of Preston Smith in his draft class.

Za'Darius Smith really had a pretty awful combine. Those numbers are not good. And roughly equivalent to Courtney Upshaw's which were considered unflattering in his pro day.

Interesting to note, that outside of Preston Smith (Dupree as well, although injuries cut short his 2nd year), these guys didn't really contribute much until year 4 or 5. Mostly indistinguishable from even Rasheem Green really.

These guys obviously had ability. But the limitations for them seems legit too. They were pretty much standard rotational level players until this past season. Smith is kind of the outlier as he started in year two and remained a core/base player (70%+ snaps) every year since year two.

Compare with Anthony Chickillo in Za'Darius Smith's same class (R6). Significantly better combine numbers and analysis pretty much the same as Smith. Early years somewhat similar in production and snap counts. Actually not a bad career for a 6th round guy.

It's certainly interesting to see these guys shine. Particularly given their circuitous route to productivity. I'm pretty confident that there are dozens of late round DEs with similar kinds of reserved platitudes on their profiles that end up flaming out after being cheap depth for a couple years.

Still a fun exercise nonetheless. What is the magic elixir that transforms a replacement level player into a prime UFA/Pro bowl caliber talent after years in the league? And maybe more important, is it possible to identify those guys in UFA that are ready to emerge late.

Attyla the Hawk":1xslgexr said:

Was a big fan of Preston Smith in his draft class.

Za'Darius Smith really had a pretty awful combine. Those numbers are not good. And roughly equivalent to Courtney Upshaw's which were considered unflattering in his pro day.

Interesting to note, that outside of Preston Smith (Dupree as well, although injuries cut short his 2nd year), these guys didn't really contribute much until year 4 or 5. Mostly indistinguishable from even Rasheem Green really.

These guys obviously had ability. But the limitations for them seems legit too. They were pretty much standard rotational level players until this past season. Smith is kind of the outlier as he started in year two and remained a core/base player (70%+ snaps) every year since year two.

Compare with Anthony Chickillo in Za'Darius Smith's same class (R6). Significantly better combine numbers and analysis pretty much the same as Smith. Early years somewhat similar in production and snap counts. Actually not a bad career for a 6th round guy.

It's certainly interesting to see these guys shine. Particularly given their circuitous route to productivity. I'm pretty confident that there are dozens of late round DEs with similar kinds of reserved platitudes on their profiles that end up flaming out after being cheap depth for a couple years.

Still a fun exercise nonetheless. What is the magic elixir that transforms a replacement level player into a prime UFA/Pro bowl caliber talent after years in the league? And maybe more important, is it possible to identify those guys in UFA that are ready to emerge late.

Click to expand...

I think you're right about players that flame out. They are probably harder to spot, and difficult to quantify. Much easier to find the success stories.

Your last paragraph was kind of the gist I was trying to get at. How do you identfiy these guys from College Production, Level of Competition, and Combine Performance?

I've always placed a LOT of value on the East-West Shrine Game, and the Senior Bowl. I remember watching Geno Atkins blow up the East-West Shrine Game (either that or the Senior Bowl), and desparately wanting him in Seattle. But they passed on him, and passed on him, and the Bengals took him in the 4th. Must have been the 32' arms?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geno_Atkins

Yannick Ngakoue, 3rd round, pick 69. 32.5" arms.

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/yan ... id=2555421

I liked this guy 2 years ago now? Time flies. He ended up being drafted about right, 2nd round, pick 9. But he's got some "medium" measurements with very good athletic traits.

Harold Landry BC 6'2" 252#, 32 7/8" arms, 9 3/8" hands

4.64 in the 40 and a 36" vertical.

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/harold-la ... 07b28af620

http://www.nfl.com/player/haroldlandry/2560784/profile