Some Post (Early FA) Draft Thoughts

Is anyone else confused? Because I’m confused.

Let me take a step back. To quote Sigmund Bloom of FootballGuys, Free Agency and the Draft are moments where a team can’t lie anymore. For example, if Pete says over and over again that they like their depth at OL and believe continuity is most important... and then go sign 4 OL and have 2 new pieces (at minimum) on the OL... that shows you what they really felt about their OL.

When they say pass rush is the most important issue to fix this offseason—and only sign Bruce Irvin? What does that tell you?

Now FA has barely started. We are barely starting to get into the 2nd wave. Clowney, Griffen, Clay Matthews, Golden are all still available and you still have Judon and Yannick available for trade. I’m not panicking, but I do wonder what their moves say, and how it will impact the draft.

Specifically, are they higher on this EDGE class than the rest of the world? And are they less high on the OL class?

The draft and FA work in conjunction, what you can’t get in the draft you get in FA. So what have the Seahawks got? OL, Pass Catchers, and a corner.

I think the Dunbar move is a no brainer regardless of the draft, but I’d imagine the lack of length at CB this year played into the move. But it’s a good class of centers... and we have 4 on the roster (Pocic, Hunt, Britt, Finney). It’s a good tackle class and we signed Shell and Ogbuehi (granted the latter is probably our big TE). It’s a good WR class and we tendered Moore and signed Dorsett.

I keep coming back to how these moves will affect draft strategy. We know Seattle drafts against the current roster, and the current roster is extremely thin at DL... and I wonder what a draft of Uche and Okwara would look like. Or Gross Matos and Anae.

I wonder if our draft will look more EDGE, DT, RB? And if so... I feel like that goes against the strengths of the draft (minus RB. I like several options). But I wonder if we see an aggressive haul of EDGE players in the vein of our 2019 WR haul following the retirement of Doug.

I know that was a vomit of thoughts, but anyone else feel similar? Different? I’m not trying to complain about the off-season, but it has somewhat cut against the grain of expectations and I’m trying to piece the strategy together in my head.

Yxes1122":zviw78an said:

To quote Sigmund Bloom of FootballGuys, Free Agency and the Draft are moments where a team can’t lie anymore.

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Absolutely and totally true. UFA period foreshadows not just the misinformation. But also gives clarity to what they are thinking about the draft class.

Yxes1122":zviw78an said:

For example, if Pete says over and over again that they like their depth at OL and believe continuity is most important... and then go sign 4 OL and have 2 new pieces (at minimum) on the OL... that shows you what they really felt about their OL.

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Correct. I figured we may make a move for expected cut of Britt. But all of the other signings were pretty significant.

Yxes1122":zviw78an said:

When they say pass rush is the most important issue to fix this offseason—and only sign Bruce Irvin? What does that tell you?

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It tells me that they are looking at DE hard in the draft. That they didn't want to pay upwards of 37M for two DEs (Clowney and someone else). May require a move up in a lean class. They absolutely CANNOT have Burns/Simmons taken just before they pick at 27. I would expect a generous trade up -- perhaps involving two or even all three of our top picks.

Additionally, they've bolstered a lot of positions. If one considers, that Seattle already drafted Clowney R3, Diggs R5 and Dunbar R5 from this draft class. They have significantly reduced depth need across the board. They don't need the 7 picks they have right now. Normally, we draft a lot of players. But depth seems to have been filled by UFA. The moves thus far strongly indicate to me an aggressive (maybe jaw dropping) move up.

Yxes1122":zviw78an said:

Specifically, are they higher on this EDGE class than the rest of the world? And are they less high on the OL class?

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This to me isn't binary. They could easily like the OL class better. But maybe didn't like the UFA DE class as much as the UFA OL offerings.

Yxes1122":zviw78an said:

The draft and FA work in conjunction

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Absolutely.

Yxes1122":zviw78an said:

what you can’t get in the draft you get in FA

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Absolutely false. FA happens long before the draft. You can *guess* what might be available -- but can't control who is on the board. Teams have to make UFA decisions without regard to who or who may not be available on draft day.

Yxes1122":zviw78an said:

So what have the Seahawks got? OL, Pass Catchers, and a corner.

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Yep. All easily identifiable needs. We've built dozens of Mock drafts almost every one picking all of these. And early.

Yxes1122":zviw78an said:

I keep coming back to how these moves will affect draft strategy. We know Seattle drafts against the current roster, and the current roster is extremely thin at DL

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As you should (and I think have here). I see these moves and I see an 'All in' strategy unlike what I've seen from Seattle before. They've shored up all of their deficiencies save the biggest one.

Yxes1122":zviw78an said:

...I wonder if we see an aggressive haul of EDGE players in the vein of our 2019 WR haul following the retirement of Doug.

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That's my read. It's too odd that they went long and hard at other need positions in UFA.

I think you're reading the tea leaves correctly. Every move has aligned with what I would expect Seattle to do, if they were going to go big at edge. The sheer volume of these moves all saying the same thing leads me to the same conclusion.

Reading the draft board, I don't see anything moving up 10 spots would work. So I'm left wondering three things:

1. What it takes to get to #2 overall? Because I can't imagine the lesson learned from Bosa in SF went unnoticed at the VMAC.

2. Failing that, are they going to go volume at DE with roughly what they have and see what sticks? Perhaps take YGM at 27 if available? Package 59/64 to move up for Okwara as well?

3. Punt DE need to 2021?

Attyla the Hawk":3trqj9hk said:

1. What it takes to get to #2 overall? Because I can't imagine the lesson learned from Bosa in SF went unnoticed at the VMAC.

2. Failing that, are they going to go volume at DE with roughly what they have and see what sticks? Perhaps take YGM at 27 if available? Package 59/64 to move up for Okwara as well?

3. Punt DE need to 2021?

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Awesome post Attyla. Let me throw another two scenarios at you:

4. Seattle thinks they can pull a Clowney 2.0. Specifically, Yannick. You have a player that wants out of Jax, that does not like the org, and that can look at Clowney’s 2019 situation and say, so long as I don’t sign my tag my leverage goes up. If Jax waits too long, and the deadline for extending franchise players passes, Seattle may be in line to use 2021 capital on a premiere guy AND avoid trading him. They honored Clowney’s request not to be franchised so I think that makes Sea an appealing destination. HUGE what if, but, there is a gambler tendency to Pete and John that I could sorta see it.. And with that I’ll remove my tin foil hat.

5. Seattle likes one of Brown or Kinlaw. Depending how the draft shakes out, I can see both Brown and Kinlaw lasting around the 9-12 range, and maybe that’s the play. Seattle has Reed and Poona and not much else at DT. I’m sure the Buckner trade threw a wrench in that strategy, but that might be a move they’d explore.

Also, addressing point 2, if it is a volume shot, I imagine that the list of guys on there list would be:

-YGM -Malik McDowel type physical traits with higher character
-Uche - Bruce Irvin-lite
-Okwara - probably the best all around option at their spot
-Anae - character+technique > physical deficiencies (Jamarco Jones of DL)
-Lynch - Production monster
-Jennings - Solid 5 tech addition to throw in with Green/Collier

I’ll be honest... that’s a hard draft to justify considering the tackle and wr talent we’d pass up.

Yxes1122":2oqyca4p said:

Awesome post Attyla. Let me throw another two scenarios at you:

4. Seattle thinks they can pull a Clowney 2.0. Specifically, Yannick. You have a player that wants out of Jax, that does not like the org, and that can look at Clowney’s 2019 situation and say, so long as I don’t sign my tag my leverage goes up. If Jax waits too long, and the deadline for extending franchise players passes, Seattle may be in line to use 2021 capital on a premiere guy AND avoid trading him. They honored Clowney’s request not to be franchised so I think that makes Sea an appealing destination. HUGE what if, but, there is a gambler tendency to Pete and John that I could sorta see it.. And with that I’ll remove my tin foil hat.

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At this point, there isn't enough foreseeable cash to make that addition happen. Assuming they sign Clowney for 18m. Right now, they are at 14m in space. Need roughly 10m for draft picks pool. Maybe another 4M for IR signings.

They have to make cuts just to add Clowney at this point. And of course those players have to be replaced. Basically to sign Clowney now we have to cut Wright, Britt and Dickson just to cover his contract.

To add Ngakoue -- we would have to cut another 17M. We don't have any more large value contracts we can shed to get there. It would mean cutting about 10 players (factoring in minimum deals on journeymen to replace them). Jacksonville would have to assume a LOT of cap space as Houston did. Which would probably mean we'd have to grant a first round pick to do that. That's an insane cost for a 1 year rental.

Only way that works, is if we don't sign Clowney. Which puts us back at square one.

Yxes1122":2oqyca4p said:

5. Seattle likes one of Brown or Kinlaw. Depending how the draft shakes out, I can see both Brown and Kinlaw lasting around the 9-12 range, and maybe that’s the play. Seattle has Reed and Poona and not much else at DT. I’m sure the Buckner trade threw a wrench in that strategy, but that might be a move they’d explore.

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I love Kinlaw. I like Brown. The massive trade up cost for both of those is prohibitive. I actually like the depth on interior DL in this draft and we could probably do as well or better just standing pat and netting two if needed.

If they move up, I think they move all the way up. Or maybe they like Chaisson and roll the dice with him early teens.

Yxes1122":2oqyca4p said:

Also, addressing point 2, if it is a volume shot, I imagine that the list of guys on there list would be:

-YGM -Malik McDowel type physical traits with higher character
-Uche - Bruce Irvin-lite
-Okwara - probably the best all around option at their spot
-Anae - character+technique > physical deficiencies (Jamarco Jones of DL)
-Lynch - Production monster
-Jennings - Solid 5 tech addition to throw in with Green/Collier

I’ll be honest... that’s a hard draft to justify considering the tackle and wr talent we’d pass up.

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I don't see Anae or Lynch in the offing. They are neither of them speed rushers. If we resign Clowney, we are three deep at big ends (Clowney, Green and Collier). I don't see us going for another 280+ power end with 'heavy hands'. That may as well be a WR that can't create separation.

I'd say possibly it would come down to

YGM
Uche
Lewis
Okwara
Zuniga
Baun

Possibly transition Malik Harrison (testing numbers superb for edge and size is close).

Another galaxy brain possibility is they move up hard, get into the top 6 and take Isaiah Simmons with the intent to make him a true LEO. I personally think he'd make a fantastic LEO and has shown excellent ability to pass rush when tasked to do that.

I think they'll like Okwara's speed. He is also the kind of player (expected to go 35-50) that we typically target a full half round before he should go. Lewis probably comes in second.

If standing pat and going volume, I think it'll be Okwara and Zuniga. And I think Uche might be an option in R3 as well (possibly in addition to the two). Uche has position flexibility and can be immediate competition with Barton/BBK at what we expect will be Wright's vacated LB position. Should Okwara hit -- his selection wouldn't be a loss.

Good thread by both of you. I was totally wrong how they would target their weakness. Youth is going to have to produce early on the DL.

I see room for youth everywhere on the roster.

This is partly due to the increase in roster limits. As one example, we could fit 2 QBs, 5 RBs, 6 WRs, 10 OLs, 5 TEs, 9 DLs, 6 LBs, 9 DBs and 3 STs on a 55 man roster. In that scenario there would be room for at least one draftee/UDFA at every position. And with 7 inactives each week there's plenty of incentive to stash a few developmental types.

However, the main consideration is that we shouldn't overrate our existing depth. Guys like Warmack and Willson will be in the building to provide competition during training camp but they are very far from guaranteed a roster spot. Young developmental players like Amadi, BBK, Shaquem, DMC, Jones and Ursua will absolutely need to compete with the new influx as well, and it wouldn't be a negative if we drafted a slot WR in the later rounds that lost the job to Dorsett/Ursua in training camp - or vice versa.

Personally, I've been adding anywhere from 7-11 rookies and 8 UDFAs from this draft class in my off-season mocks.