2020 Overpaid JAG millstones & what we coulda got instead?

2020 overpaid JAG millstones around our neck--and what we could have gotten instead?
PART 1: Who are our top 5 *overpaid* Just-A-Guy players and their cap hit, *overpaid* for what we are getting?
PART 2: (Optional) With the cap money allocated to your top 5, we "coulda had" what combo of players instead that would help the team more? Say, players available during July?

I don't really have a list; interested in seeing everyone else's. Some mention TE's Greg Olsen, Hollister; I've defended those payouts, and they've produced thus far. Here's the salary info I know about:
https://overthecap.com/calculator/seattle-seahawks/

BACKGROUND...

Fade":194r5ccv said:

olyfan63":194r5ccv said:

Fade":194r5ccv said:

The thing is Seattle has had a ton of resources, to build around Russ.
They just keep misfiring in both the draft and Free Agency. An extra $30M in cap space wouldn't make a difference, they would just sign more JAGs.
--snipped out mention of drug-impaired posters (not Fade) suggesting trading Russell for picks and players--

On a positive note, they spent $60M on JAGs this off-season, but a lot of those guys will be coming off of the books, or cut for cap savings, and they will have a lot of money again next off-season to take another crack at it.

All it will take is 1 decent Free Agency class, and a draft where they hit on 3 players, and they can be a juggernaut again. In the meantime they will just have to settle with being legit contenders every year with #3 leading the charge.

Click to expand...

--snipped appreciation for Fade's posts and for our 2020 draft class showing thus far--

Just one quibble:
This year, with all the injuries, it's just as likely to be the JAGs that make all the difference. Pete & Co choosing JAGs wisely, coaching them up excellently, and underpaying them relative to their production, to have amazing overall depth and quality--now THAT is "Pete Ball", at least as Pete himself no doubt intends it.

Yes, it absolutely is a problem if we spend $5M or $8M on a crappy JAG; Luke Joeckl, anyone? Or Sheldon-whatever we who we traded a high pick for, to get a one year rental, IIRC?
--snip of praising some of our cheap JAGs who have made game-deciding plays in 2020--
--snip of complaining about past NEAGs (NOT EVEN A Guy) we trotted out under Ruskell/Holmgren--

To make the playoffs and do any damage there, we're gonna need some big games from JAGs who aren't even on the team yet, DTs and such. In Carroll's system, JAG is generally a guy who is a competent NFL player, and playing within their strengths, relative to Carroll's system. We are freakin loaded with JAGs. But any given game, any one of them could be the JAG who makes the game-deciding play.

Click to expand...

JAGs are not a problem as long as you're not paying them. Every team has a lot of JAGs. And that is the point, their supply outweighs the demand, so it makes no sense to pay JAGs as they grow on trees. It is better to bring in lower cost JAGs (Vet Min, Rookie wage scale), and use the extra money to sign an impact player. Would you trade 4 overpaid Jags on the roster for an impact pass rusher in Free Agency that can really help over the next 3 years? I would.

Yeah, if they hit on Swain, Robinson, & Taylor. And their upcoming UFA class is good (Featuring an OT). They will be in business. Too early to tell though.

Click to expand...

The what-if game doesn't work that well in hindsight here for two reasons. First, it's somewhat dependent on injuries which are mostly unpredictable (e.g. Irvin). Second, bad outcomes do not always mean the decisions were bad.

Free agency is a losing proposition, and the only way to win is to approach it unconventionally. We don't intend to overpay mediocre players; rather we take a chance on flawed players looking for value. It's been very successful over the years with some players, and we've also had our share of complete misses.

Most (all?) of our recent reclamation projects have failed (Joeckel, Ansah, Dion Jordan, etc), but the reason that those guys were reclamation projects in the first place was because they were long shots to turn around their careers. If we take a chance on something that is 20% likely and then it doesn't occur then that's just the expected outcome and not indicative of a bad decision. Framing that as overpaying average players is missing the point.

:roll:

Rookie deals.

Everything in the NFL is about rookie deals. Bang for the buck.

This is why I can endure the growing pains of young teams.

This is why I am entirely grateful that I am not a Jets or Browns fan.

This is why I don't pretend to be smarter that JS or PC.

As per OverTheCap we only have 9 players with a cap hit of over $5m, with one of those being Irvin who is now on IR.

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/seattle-seahawks/

I'd also argue, that with over 50 career sacks, Irvin is more than just a guy, particularly since he has spent much of his career as an OLB/DE hybrid player rather than straight pass rusher.

Greg Olsen's cap hit also appears high, but for a position where we've had multiple injuries over the past few years and as a result had to rely on unreliable play, I think the allocation of cap to a veteran player who could plug and play this year is a sensible one.

Apart from that, everyone earning over $5m is probably worth their contract. Of those earning over $3m, BJ Finney is definitely the one that we could have done without paying, and Hollister possibly (although he's already caught a TD for us this year). Maybe that's around $6-7m that we could have spent elsewhere, but the competition at center was required after cutting Britt, and again unreliable TE production over last few years meant that it was worth allocating cap towards this position group, even if the choice of Finney was a poor one (although if Pocic goes down I'll feel a lot more comfortable with Finney under center than Hunt after last year).

Beyond that you're getting into the sub $3m range, and you'd have to ditch a LOT of those players to be able to afford one marquee player.

Don't sign:
Olsen $7M
Finney $4M APY
Ogbuehi $2.3M

Get a couple of these guys: Clowney/Robert Quinn/Calais Campbell/Everson Griffen/Dante Fowler/Javon Hargrave

Release KJ Wright if need be to get this done, especially after they drafted Brooks 1st rd. And this way Blair wouldn't have gotten his knee blown out

Having a bunch of JAGs this year is probably more important than a few great players just because the way things may go with COVID and injuries. Depth has never been more important. I'm not upset with how the off season went now that I see how thin we are getting with injuries how COVID has already disrupted a game.

If we'd splurged on Clowney/Griffen and both those guys went down we are in worse shape than we are now.

The biggest problem with this mental exercise is the presupposition that any of the marquee players would be willing to come here to play for us for the same or slightly more than they signed for with other teams.

Unless we want to give them the precedent setting, big guarantee contract they are really shooting for, why would they come to Seattle?

The big names that will be mentioned are mostly going to be on the defensive line. The way our defense is built, guys like Clowney/ Griffen/ Richardson last year, simply aren't going to get the stats to support their bid for that big, final contract. I think that getting one of these means we actually have to get two of them (to convince them that it is worth coming here) and/or give them a final, ride off into retirement size contract.

For example, Quinn got 5 years and 70 million, and he gets to play alongside Mack. He should thrive. Even if he doesn't see the end of the contract, he should rack up some stats to demand a reasonable contract from another team.

I just think that, unless we want to splurge our cap for several years, we aren't getting one of these marquee free agents along the line

Frank Clark is another you can toss in there. Sure, we could have afforded him. Did he really just want to be out of here?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1264276324643897351[/tweet]

I will take

RT Jack Conklin for $8M
DE Robert Quinn for $6.1M
DE Dante Fowler for $6.7M
CB Quinton Dunbar for $3.4M

With plenty of money left over to fill out the roster and over pay some guys if necessary like a Greg Olsen and a Jarran Reed.

Fade":1bxz30by said:

--snip of awesome graph on Twitter at https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/ ... 43897351--

I will take

RT Jack Conklin for $8M
DE Robert Quinn for $6.1M
DE Dante Fowler for $6.7M
CB Quinton Dunbar for $3.4M

With plenty of money left over to fill out the roster and over pay some guys if necessary like a Greg Olsen and a Jarran Reed.

Click to expand...

Awesome graph! And thanks for playing Would have loved to see Quinn here, and we did get Dunbar. I'll assume Conklin is good, maybe even good enough to slide over and be our LT if we lost Brown for a few games. Yes for sure to Fowler as well. At least he wouldn't be chasing Russell in *games*.

I wasn't clear on who you would jettison, though, to create the cap room. Who gets kicked off the island?

i think we probably thought we had the best shot of signing Clowney...Clowney fire his agent probably threw wrench into the suppose deal.

Right now, im pretty happy with what we got. The only unfortunate is Irvin's injury.

Olsen is going to be huge for us during the playoffs. He will be Wilson's 3rd down man.

O-line seems way more improved than last year.

Fade":vc78q1yt said:

I will take

RT Jack Conklin for $8M
DE Robert Quinn for $6.1M
DE Dante Fowler for $6.7M
CB Quinton Dunbar for $3.4M

With plenty of money left over to fill out the roster and over pay some guys if necessary like a Greg Olsen and a Jarran Reed.

Click to expand...

Even with the cap expected to go down 30-80 mill next year?

Older players have a higher injury risk.

I was concerned about both Irvin and Olsen for that reason.

We seemed to go all in on older players this year. Don't we have Iupati too?

The weird part is older players like Irvin and Olsen are so expensive.

So they cost more and come with more risk.


Sometimes when you fail to plug holes with the draft, you are stuck using what you can. Your roster selections seem more reasonable. For now, we just have to hope the rest of our old guys can stay healthy in a year when NFL players going down in record numbers.

2020 in unique in the way that injuries are going to be predictably higher than in years past. For this season I would rather have 14 JAGs than 4 above average players due to the number of injuries the team can expect.

massari":3ojbeq7p said:

Fade":3ojbeq7p said:

I will take

RT Jack Conklin for $8M
DE Robert Quinn for $6.1M
DE Dante Fowler for $6.7M
CB Quinton Dunbar for $3.4M

With plenty of money left over to fill out the roster and over pay some guys if necessary like a Greg Olsen and a Jarran Reed.

Click to expand...

Even with the cap expected to go down 30-80 mill next year?

Click to expand...

It won't. If revenue drops they will just flatten the cap out for future seasons. The NFL would have to sustain massive losses over multiple seasons to see anything that extreme.

Fade":289vmoqy said:

massari":289vmoqy said:

Fade":289vmoqy said:

Even with the cap expected to go down 30-80 mill next year?

Click to expand...

It won't. If revenue drops they will just flatten the cap out for future seasons. The NFL would have to sustain massive losses over multiple seasons to see anything that extreme.

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

None of us know that. The NFLPA has proposed that the cap stay flat, the owners have not agreed to anything with the 2021 cap. Based on their COVID plan for this season, I have a feeling they will do the most extreme and half-assed implementation of any cap adjustments.

olyfan63":1cpqgvke said:

Fade":1cpqgvke said:

--snip of awesome graph on Twitter at https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/ ... 43897351--

I will take

RT Jack Conklin for $8M
DE Robert Quinn for $6.1M
DE Dante Fowler for $6.7M
CB Quinton Dunbar for $3.4M

With plenty of money left over to fill out the roster and over pay some guys if necessary like a Greg Olsen and a Jarran Reed.

Click to expand...

Awesome graph! And thanks for playing Would have loved to see Quinn here, and we did get Dunbar. I'll assume Conklin is good, maybe even good enough to slide over and be our LT if we lost Brown for a few games. Yes for sure to Fowler as well. At least he wouldn't be chasing Russell in *games*.

I wasn't clear on who you would jettison, though, to create the cap room. Who gets kicked off the island?

Click to expand...

Subtract these guys, as they are not needed if the above are signed.

-2.2M - Cedric Obouehi
-3.5M - Brandon Shell
-5.9M - Bruce Irvin
-3.0M - Benson Mayowa

Other guys traded for picks or outright cut

-2.1M Brandon Jackson
-3.3M Jacob Hollister (If you sign Olsen) (They are deep at TE.)

JAGS worth signing
Mike Iupati (Solid starter on the cheap, he is more than a JAG, but being paid like one.)
David Moore (Special Teams, and is a capable 4th WR.)
B.J. Finney (Can play all 3 interior spots, O-Line insurance policy.)

Luxury Signings
+6.9M Greg Olsen
+3.0M Carlos Hyde

There is more than enough room and then some to make this work.

I feel like SEATTLE really bought into the analytics that coverage is more valuable, than pass rush. Which it is to a point. If you go full pedestrian upfront though, whelp you see the results.

sdog1981":f770sepm said:

Fade":f770sepm said:

massari":f770sepm said:

Fade":f770sepm said:

Even with the cap expected to go down 30-80 mill next year?

Click to expand...

It won't. If revenue drops they will just flatten the cap out for future seasons. The NFL would have to sustain massive losses over multiple seasons to see anything that extreme.

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

None of us know that. The NFLPA has proposed that the cap stay flat, the owners have not agreed to anything with the 2021 cap. Based on their COVID plan for this season, I have a feeling they will do the most extreme and half-assed implementation of any cap adjustments.

Click to expand...

No way. The most extreme case I could see is maybe a $10M dip in 2021. My expectation is it remains relatively flat. Seattle is fine either way, standing at 11th of 32 teams in cap space for '21, flexibility to jettison some vets who under perform in '20, and do the Jamal Adams extension lowering his number to create even more room.

And if you're proposed doomsday scenario happened the entire league would be screwed, not just the Seahawks. Leading to the players striking. The owners aren't that dumb, or maybe they are, we'll just have to wait and see.

Fade":37zqoy9n said:

No way. The most extreme case I could see is maybe a $10M dip in 2021. My expectation is it remains relatively flat. Seattle is fine either way, standing at 11th of 32 teams in cap space for '21, flexibility to jettison some vets who underperform in '20, and do the Jamal Adams extension lowering his number to create even more room.

And if you're proposed doomsday scenario happened the entire league would be screwed, not just the Seahawks. Leading to the players striking. The owners aren't that dumb, or maybe they are, we'll just have to wait and see.

Click to expand...

I trust this front officer and the team as it is constructed to weather a doomsday salary cap scenario. The JAG debate is an interesting one, doubly so for this season. This season more than any other is about depth of the roster and practice squad. For the 2020 season 14 JAGs is better than 8 above average players.

Fade":3o1eh056 said:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1264276324643897351[/tweet]

I will take

RT Jack Conklin for $8M
DE Robert Quinn for $6.1M
DE Dante Fowler for $6.7M
CB Quinton Dunbar for $3.4M

With plenty of money left over to fill out the roster and over pay some guys if necessary like a Greg Olsen and a Jarran Reed.

Click to expand...

The cap hit of just Conklin, Quinn and Fowler in 2021 is $46.5m, and in 2022 it's $51m. Conklin even carries a dead cap hit of $6m in 2023 despite being a free agent that year because of the way Cleveland have constructed the contract.

And that's why the Bears, Browns and Falcons won't come close to winning a title any time soon.