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Week 5 DVOA ratings, Seahawks #3 overall

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Week 5 DVOA ratings, Seahawks #3 overall
Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:09 pm

  • renofox wrote:https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2020/week-5-dvoa-ratings

    #3 Offense
    #4 Special Teams
    #18 Defense

    Yes, the defense is bad.
    No, I don't think they're as bad as most here seem to think.



    DVOA is always wieghtinged by that season's average. The Seahawks defense is average in a year, with god awful defense.
    sdog1981
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  • A few other rankings:

    #1 - Estimated Wins (focuses on performance/plays in key situations)
    #4 - Variance (how consistent has the team played throughout the season)
    #26 - Remaining Schedule (#1 is hardest, so Seahawks have 7th easiest remaining opponents based on DVOA)
    renofox
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  • The defense is worse than 18th and nothing is going to convince me otherwise. Sending 5 and getting no more pressure than we do with 4 and leaving less room in coverage hasn’t helped and I think scheme wise we could be doing a lot more but like the offense over the past few years I’m not sure Pete is willing or capable to change much unless someone in the building forces it. Schott and Russ forced the issue. Norton isn’t that guy. Pete is a program here strangely.

    Having said that we can win a SB and they’re my pick to do it until they don’t.
    austinslater25
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  • The defense is bad. They can't get off the field on 3rd down. If they can clean that up just a little bit and be respectable in that area, they will win the Super Bowl.

    With that said, Russ appears to be on a mission this year, and it doesn't look like anything is going to stop him. So he may just pull it off anyway. He makes the impossible seem possible if you will.
    Fade
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  • austinslater25 wrote:The defense is worse than 18th and nothing is going to convince me otherwise. Sending 5 and getting no more pressure than we do with 4 and leaving less room in coverage hasn’t helped and I think scheme wise we could be doing a lot more but like the offense over the past few years I’m not sure Pete is willing or capable to change much unless someone in the building forces it. Schott and Russ forced the issue. Norton isn’t that guy. Pete is a program here strangely.

    Having said that we can win a SB and they’re my pick to do it until they don’t.



    Very well put also these stats epa dvoa etc. I never give them precedence over the eye test. That being said have some injured guys coming back Green and of course Adams Also Pete is bound to make some kind of change he sees this as well. Snacks and Bullard may help also. Finally we will get to see Taylor very soon. Improvement is very possible.
    tersal
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  • Yet they are 5-0. Doesn't matter one bit how they win as long as they win.
    Defense is about to improve, look who has been out and who is coming back after the bye.
    SoulfishHawk
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  • Defense needs to get better, but at the same time I can't help but notice they are making plays during clutch situations.
    fenderbender123
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  • Exactly. That's what is so strange about that D. Sure they can get shredded for a lot of yards etc. But in just about every game they have come up with huge game saving plays.
    Cam flip
    Pick in the end zone vs. Dallas
    Stopping Atlanta on 4th down all 4 times
    4th down stop on Sunday night, plus a pick and two forced fumbles.
    SoulfishHawk
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  • SoulfishHawk wrote:Exactly. That's what is so strange about that D. Sure they can get shredded for a lot of yards etc. But in just about every game they have come up with huge game saving plays.
    Cam flip
    Pick in the end zone vs. Dallas
    Stopping Atlanta on 4th down all 4 times
    4th down stop on Sunday night, plus a pick and two forced fumbles.

    A "normal" defense, after how the Vikes ran over us in the first half Sunday, would have been down by 21, if not more.

    Getting the stops when it really counted held the game to a very managable 13 point deficit. Maybe they're failing some people's "eye test" but they have been pretty clutch at key points in games.

    Yeah, we need to get better. Getting healthy will hopefully help.
    sutz
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  • It's understandable that fans are going to be down on the defense given how many yards they've given up. As a fan, a defensive 3 and out is thrilling while giving up a 90+ yard drive is soul crushing, especially when it comes in 18 plays a few yards at a time and seems inevitable.

    The thing to remember when we have a good run defense but poor pass defense is that it gets easier to play defense as the opponent gets closer to our end zone because the field compresses. Our secondary has less field that they need to defend and speed becomes less of a factor. The CBs can press because they can't get beat deep and the LBs can play closer to the line of scrimmage.

    This is also sometimes true when an opponent needs a critical yard here or there in the middle of the field because most are averse to taking big risky shots when they only need a yard or two. The defense has come up big a number of times in these situations, holding opponents to punts and field goals instead of TDs.

    Another thing to consider is that when you force an opponent to spend 18 plays moving the ball down the field that majorly increases the chance of a play going your way sometime in that series. Bad throws, drops, tipped passes, hurried passes, fumbles, and not seeing a defender all happen from time to time. A long drive that ends in a turnover is still worth 0 points to the opponent, and a short drive that ends in a turnover has created a number of our points on offense this year.

    Finally, as others have said, scoring is up a lot this year. It's tough to get that upset about the Dolphins putting up 23 against us when you see them put up 28 on the Bills, 31 on the Jags, and then 43 on the 49ers. Similarly, the Vikings put up more points against two other undefeated teams (Packers and Titans) than they did against us.
    AgentDib
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  • It's a simple fact that all the rule changes in recent years have led to offensive coaches learning to exploit them around the league. When even a dinosaur like Pete starts going pass happy, you know times, they are a-changing.

    This leads to high scoring games that apparently some fans like. Personally i prefer the old style of football where they allowed you to play defense and hit somebody. But I can't see us returning to those halcyon days. So we need to recalibrate our concept of what "good defense" looks like.

    Our defense is not good. It is mediocre. Our offense is damn good as are our special teams. That is why we are 5-0. You are what your record says you are. People moaning about the defense need to watch a few Dallas games and picture themselves as Cowboy fans. Now that is some terrible defense.
    Mad Dog
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  • How is his possible, given that our defence has given up the most yards (through 5 games) since the 1950 Colts?
    TypeSly
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  • TypeSly wrote:How is his possible, given that our defence has given up the most yards (through 5 games) since the 1950 Colts?

    Mostly because we're ranked 19th in points allowed and 3rd in turnover differential. The passing yards are coming late when we're up by 2 scores.
    Maulbert
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  • Maulbert wrote:
    TypeSly wrote:How is his possible, given that our defence has given up the most yards (through 5 games) since the 1950 Colts?

    Mostly because we're ranked 19th in points allowed and 3rd in turnover differential. The passing yards are coming late when we're up by 2 scores.


    That's funny, because I don't remember ever being up by 2 scores "late" in the game.
    TypeSly
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  • TypeSly wrote:
    Maulbert wrote:
    TypeSly wrote:How is his possible, given that our defence has given up the most yards (through 5 games) since the 1950 Colts?

    Mostly because we're ranked 19th in points allowed and 3rd in turnover differential. The passing yards are coming late when we're up by 2 scores.


    That's funny, because I don't remember ever being up by 2 scores "late" in the game.


    Against Falcons:
    21-12, 28-12
    31-12 to start the 4th

    Against Patriots:
    28-17
    35-23 halfway through the 4th or so

    Against Cowboys:
    30-15 in the earlier part of the 3rd

    Against Dolphins:
    24-15
    31-15 with about 4 mins to go or so

    So basically only against Vikings they haven't had a 2 scores lead, and I grant you against the Cowboys I wouldn't call that a 'late' 2 scores lead
    AlciG
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  • AlciG wrote:
    TypeSly wrote:
    Maulbert wrote:
    TypeSly wrote:How is his possible, given that our defence has given up the most yards (through 5 games) since the 1950 Colts?

    Mostly because we're ranked 19th in points allowed and 3rd in turnover differential. The passing yards are coming late when we're up by 2 scores.


    That's funny, because I don't remember ever being up by 2 scores "late" in the game.


    Against Falcons:
    21-12, 28-12
    31-12 to start the 4th

    Against Patriots:
    28-17
    35-23 halfway through the 4th or so

    Against Cowboys:
    30-15 in the earlier part of the 3rd

    Against Dolphins:
    24-15
    31-15 with about 4 mins to go or so

    So basically only against Vikings they haven't had a 2 scores lead, and I grant you against the Cowboys I wouldn't call that a 'late' 2 scores lead


    Those aren't exactly garbage time scores after that. Why are we biting our nails everytime late in games? Because those times you mentioned are crucial times for a defensive stop.
    TypeSly
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  • The defensive ranking is off. I love DVOA but the eye test convinces me we have one of the worst defenses in the league at this point. But reinforcements are coming so not all hope is lost. I think some of this is on the play calling and coaching staff as well and they have to be willing to do something a little differently and figure this out. I know we have major holes but most teams do and we have enough talent to be a middle of the pack defense. I hope we get there.
    austinslater25
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  • sutz wrote:
    SoulfishHawk wrote:Exactly. That's what is so strange about that D. Sure they can get shredded for a lot of yards etc. But in just about every game they have come up with huge game saving plays.
    Cam flip
    Pick in the end zone vs. Dallas
    Stopping Atlanta on 4th down all 4 times
    4th down stop on Sunday night, plus a pick and two forced fumbles.

    A "normal" defense, after how the Vikes ran over us in the first half Sunday, would have been down by 21, if not more.

    Getting the stops when it really counted held the game to a very managable 13 point deficit. Maybe they're failing some people's "eye test" but they have been pretty clutch at key points in games.

    Yeah, we need to get better. Getting healthy will hopefully help.

    Look, I agree with this, BUT I still....I KNOW Norton isn't the guy for this Defense. When he was with Oakland for a couple of years, that defense was at the bottom in every category, and that's why Gruden fired his ass. Norton has been here for a couple of years, and the defense is absolutely terrible. Norton isn't a D-coord, he's a LB coach.
    hawks85
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  • For the most accurate view, you want the analytics and the eye test. You want the analytics to show you what you're eyes don't see, such as our bad defense being less of a problem because most defenses are really struggling right now. You want the eye test to see what the data can't, such as if a team's great stats are just coming from padding them during garbage time.
    BirdsCommaAngry
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  • BirdsCommaAngry wrote:For the most accurate view, you want the analytics and the eye test. You want the analytics to show you what you're eyes don't see, such as our bad defense being less of a problem because most defenses are really struggling right now. You want the eye test to see what the data can't, such as if a team's great stats are just coming from padding them during garbage time.

    Spot on. What the analytics show is just how bad the entire league is on defense. You can only base the eye test on past experience, so it's only relevant historically. We fans are always guilty of picking our team and players apart while failing to notice the same problems or worse with other teams. Function of not watching every play of every team.....every week.
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