The difficult? upcoming four game stretch

We are all expecting the Hawks to be favored in these games, and most are expecting them to win all four. Today on 710, Heaps said something along the lines of "not to overlook the upcoming opponents, but this could be like the preseason we didn't have." Sentiment on the subreddit and twitter is certainly that the Hawks should be 11-3 going into the rematch vs. the Rams.

According to the updated 538 ELO projections, the Hawks are:
68% likely to beat the Eagles
79% likelihood to beat the Giants
89% likelihood to beat the Jets
69% likelihood to beat the Redskins
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We are handy favorites in all, but for those doing the math that only adds up to 3.05 expected wins.

So how likely is it that we will win all four of these "easy" games? There are 16 possible outcomes and you can calculate the likelihood of each by multiplying the probabilities together and then adding similar outcomes. The chart below shows the results of this calculation.



The odds of winning all four games is only around 1/3 likely and three wins is a more reasonable expectation. One of the best ways to have a movie ruined for yourself is for somebody else to recommend it as the greatest movie ever. Weighted against expectations, this upcoming stretch is going to be more difficult than our previous stretch against teams that fans knew were tough opponents.

Of course the good news is that each win makes it far more likely we can get the sweep:
W vs. Eagles = 48% likely to win all four.
W vs. Eagles, Giants = 61% likely to win all four.
W vs. Eagles, Giants, Jets = 69% likely to win all four.

I always get nervous for these kinds of games where "The Consensus" is that we should win. While I too am pretty confident for this 4-game stretch, I can't deny that these are still professional football players we are going against, and sometimes the teams with nothing to lose are the most dangerous. I think 3-1 is logical, and yes, 4-0 possible.

I did hear Jake talking about having this be the preseason we didn't get to have and I didn't take that as a slam on those teams as much as it is the truth. If you can't get right, get momentum, work on the issues you've had to this point, on this 4 game stretch, chances are we don't deserve to be considered as contenders.

But always the optimist I think we roll past these teams, beat the Rams and 9ers to finish 13-3.

12-4 at worst and that would be the Rams who seem to have found their mojo, especially on D.

The way I see it is that we had a very good chance to win in all three loses to much better talent than the four upcoming teams. We went 2-3, but with a little better luck could have gone 4-1. Those are the breaks, but with a non-existent run game and a really bad defensive game plan we still were in those games.

Now put a potentially strong run game with our passing attack and a defense that I believe has turned the corner.

What should you have?

Four very dominant wins! We only have to take it one game at a time and should be 11-3 going into our last two division games to end the regular season. When that is accomplished I see us blowing past the Rams and Niners to take the division and maybe even NFC conference number one seed.

I do like our chances! :2thumbs:

I know anything can happen any given Sunday, but if the Hawks don't win the next 4 I'm going to be seriously disappointed

AlciG":2odn4jk2 said:

I know anything can happen any given Sunday, but if the Hawks don't win the next 4 I'm going to be seriously disappointed

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.....that makes two of us.

AlciG":nsk0m5de said:

I know anything can happen any given Sunday, but if the Hawks don't win the next 4 I'm going to be seriously disappointed

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Y'all are nuts. I'll enjoy each game knowing we have a good chance, but need to show up every game. Plus a good chance to hopefully come out healthy, and with a more cohesive unit. One game at a time for fans also!

I'm more worried the niners come back for the last game 100% healthy (I haven't actually tracked their injuries) and just want to go break skulls. We still win that and a tough rams game, but are beat up for the playoffs.

The Giants and Jets percentages are a joke.

The Eagles pose the biggest threat, but Seattle straight up owns them.

At Washington could be a trap game, the week before the Rams, cross country trip, 10am start, great DL.

I think it's a lock that Seattle goes 3-1, very likely 4-0 though.

Still gotta' lace em up. They SHOULD go 4-0, but things happen. Every team has a crap game at some point.

Ramfan128":nfago9l5 said:

The Giants and Jets percentages are a joke.

The Eagles pose the biggest threat, but Seattle straight up owns them.

At Washington could be a trap game, the week before the Rams, cross country trip, 10am start, great DL.

I think it's a lock that Seattle goes 3-1, very likely 4-0 though.

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yeah... alot of overthinking going on. I'd imagine the true SPI for each game is at 70% or more.

They ought to win the next four. Other than Rusty getting injured, there's no excuse.

Hopefully they can get to 12-4 and maybe a one seed if the Aints stumble.

Fortunately, they are focused on one game at a time, it has always been that way.
Just get this W on Monday. Winning is tough in the NFL, it's us fans who decide they should smoke everyone they play :2thumbs:

They need a chip and we have to prove ourselves mentality.

These teams should be stomped, two reasons, set a tone for the rest of the season and going into the playoffs, secondly to get our defense confident and playing with an attitude, we need it for the playoffs and to finish the Division schedule.

I expect a tough battle from the Eagles to be honest.