The fight for the NFC #1 seed (Week 15 Updated)

So, as we enter Week 12 of the NFL season, the race for the NFC #1 seed is tightly contested. The Seahawks, thankfully, are looking strong with the easiest remaining schedule in the league. Will Seattle finish at the top and ensure home field advantage?

Seattle Seahawks (10-4)
vs. Rams (9-5)
@ 49ers (5-9)

Los Angeles Rams (9-5)
@ Seahawks (10-4)
vs. Cardinals (8-6)

Green Bay Packers (11-3)
vs. Titans (10-4)
@ Bears (7-7)

New Orleans Saints (10-4)
vs. Vikings (6-8)
@ Panthers (4-10)

Playoff contenders facing a lot of red teams, this is all about the right mentality and health now.

Good thing is two contenders face the Chiefs and one the Titans which have been getting better, Rams have three division games.

If the Hawks, Saints and Packers were all to finish 13-3, would the Hawks get the #1 seed? What if it comes down to just Hawks vs Saints or Hawks vs Packers?


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chris98251":3oh3aogn said:

Playoff contenders facing a lot of red teams, this is all about the right mentality and health now.

Good thing is two contenders face the Chiefs and one the Titans which have been getting better, Rams have three division games.

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The good thing about the Saints, and what will make their run in difficult, is the loss of Brees. I wasn't impressed by Hill and he took too many sacks. They're going to be reliant on Kamara and their defence I think, but they'll be very pleased if they only lose one more game before the end of the season.

Seattle has a chance because of our weak schedule, but the Saints have a pretty weak schedule too. And considering that they've knocked off the Bucs twice now, I think the Saint are going to take the NFC (reg season) crown.

Here's how I think it ends up:

Seahawks 12-4

Saints 12-4

Rams 11-5

Packers 11-5

Bucs 10-6

I don't know in this scenario who wins the #1 seed between Seattle or New Orleans though.

Would the tie-break come down to record versus like-opponents, in that event? ^^

Makes every week so important. Love it.

Aros":2sccv1zw said:

Here's how I think it ends up:

Seahawks 12-4

Saints 12-4

Rams 11-5

Packers 11-5

Bucs 10-6

I don't know in this scenario who wins the #1 seed between Seattle or New Orleans though.

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Here is the link to the tiebreaker procedure - https://operations.nfl.com/the-rules/nfl-tiebreaking-procedures/

Well, for one thing, it looks like the NFC West will determine who will win the NFC East.

Aros":rikl6nhh said:

Here's how I think it ends up:
Seahawks 12-4
Saints 12-4
Rams 11-5
Packers 11-5
Bucs 10-6
I don't know in this scenario who wins the #1 seed between Seattle or New Orleans though.

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If the Hawks and Saints end in a two way tie, since the teams don't face each other, the tie-break comes down to our win % in common games. Fortunately, we've won 3 of them so far.

Falcons (Won)
Vikings (Won)
49ers (Won, 1 TBD)
Eagles (TBD)

Saints:
Falcons (Won)
Vikings (TBD)
49ers (Won)
Eagles (TBD)

Monday night's game against the Eagles would help us tremendously, should we end in a tie with the Saints for the #1 seed, as it turns out.

Good stuff, thanks!

Important to note when there are multiple teams tied with the same record, there's a hierarchy to determine who wins the Division and then who wins seeding.

IF Arizona and Seattle were tied at 12-4 (along with either another one or two teams at 12-4), it would resolve the Division winner first and then the Division winner would be broken down by tie-breakers to determine seeding.

Example:

Seattle 12-4
Arizona 12-4

#1 Head-to-head: Tied at 1-1
#2 Division Record: Currently, Seattle is 2-2 and Arizona is 2-1
#3 Common Games: Currently Seattle is 4-2 and Arizona is 4-2
#4 Conference: Currently Seattle is 5-2 and Arizona is 4-3

At the end of the season, Seattle still plays @SF and LAR while Arizona has LAR, SF and @LAR.

For Common Games, Seattle has to play @PHI, NYG, NYJ, @WASH and Arizona has @NWE, @NYG, and PHI. (Seattle has more common games because we have one less Division game remaining than ARZ).

Use this link if you want to play around with potential seeding. http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

It's really hard for Seattle to win in a head-to-head as 12-4 requires the Cardinals to go 6-0 to finish the year and that gives them a 5-1 Division record which Seattle could not top. Seattle would have to go 13-3 or finish with a game-better record than the Cardinals.

If the Rams can go 3-1 and Seattle goes 4-0 over the next 4, week 16 will basically decide the division

The lambs are coming in hot right now , it's the Hawks or the Lambs @ the end .IMO

GB is fading - The Bucs look iffy--but that new QB for the Saints looks to be big trouble .Mr. Hill takes the helm . They got some good D also .

xray":1h3tte24 said:

GB is fading - The Bucs look iffy--but that new QB for the Saints looks to be big trouble .Mr. Hill takes the helm . They got some good D also .

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Hill has his moments. Could be important that 4 out of their last 6 are road games.

i think 12-4 with winning the Rams game is enough to win the division. Now the question about the number 1 seed is far murkier. Especially with the various tiebreaker scenarios.

New Orleans and Green Bay could very easily get to 12 wins given the schedule, 13 wins I think is what it will take to be the number one seed. Seattle needing to win out looks possible, but not probable given the remaining schedule.

Lets go 4-0 before the Rams game to leave it all on the line in that game. (And then will typically lose the last game versus SF to clinch number 1 seed) :shock:

xray":hs8x9nuh said:

GB is fading - The Bucs look iffy--but that new QB for the Saints looks to be big trouble .Mr. Hill takes the helm . They got some good D also .

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I love Taysom Hill, but our defence has more trouble against the air-it-out QB's than the option QB's. Even though Hill has a cannon, he throws the worst deep balls. This is one game where we better not play our soft "bend but don't break" defence, because the last thing we need is to get Mr. Hill into a nice rhythm.