Packers FG on 4th and 8 was worst than Seahawk's int SB 49

Tokadub · Jan 24, 2021

I really wanted the TB Buccaneers to win the whole time... I thought Aaron Rodgers has been way too cocky and he needs to be brought down to earth (now he's 1-4 in Conference Finals, and 1 Super Bowl Win).

I also thought it was a very hilarious narrative if Tom Brady wins another Super Bowl without Belichick... Even Tom just making the Super Bowl I'm sure Belichick is going to be haunted for the rest of his life, kinda funny (I don't feel sorry for him after winning that much).

But the WAY the Packers lost... not going for it on 4th and 8 when even if you kick a Field Goal you STILL NEED A TOUCHDOWN... you are practically out of time against TOM BRADY... you really want to give the ball back instead of attempting to tie the game...?

The way I see it:

4th and 8 60% chance to score... 2 point conversion 60% chance to score...

Letting Tom Brady get the ball back with like 2:03 minutes left... I'm not a mathematician but I think going for it on 4th and 8 to tie the game is probably 3-4 times more likely to force over time and have a chance to win compared to giving it back to them down 5...

I also think that last PI call was really unfortunate for GB, even though I REALLY wanted them to lose... IT SEEMED OBVIOUSLY UNCATCHABLE?!!!

[youtube]QGc-iPc-9dE[/youtube]

that soured the game a bit for me. Even if it was a good call they were letting them play all day... I would of liked to see if GB can fight back in that situation.

Mad Dog · Jan 24, 2021

Not sure Belichick is too concerned with 8 SB rings in his collection.

But I’m sure Tom is gloating nonetheless.

Bills and GB both chickened out on 4th downs when they shouldn’t have. And the football gods punished them for it.

5thgen · Jan 24, 2021

Tokadub":1dc1t1ql said:
I really wanted the TB Buccaneers to win the whole time... I thought Aaron Rodgers has been way too cocky and he needs to be brought down to earth (now he's 1-4 in Conference Finals, and 1 Super Bowl Win).

I also thought it was a very hilarious narrative if Tom Brady wins another Super Bowl without Belichick... Even Tom just making the Super Bowl I'm sure Belichick is going to be haunted for the rest of his life, kinda funny (I don't feel sorry for him after winning that much).

But the WAY the Packers lost... not going for it on 4th and 8 when even if you kick a Field Goal you STILL NEED A TOUCHDOWN... you are practically out of time against TOM BRADY... you really want to give the ball back instead of attempting to tie the game...?

The way I see it:

4th and 8 60% chance to score... 2 point conversion 60% chance to score...

Letting Tom Brady get the ball back with like 2:03 minutes left... I'm not a mathematician but I think going for it on 4th and 8 to tie the game is probably 3-4 times more likely to force over time and have a chance to win compared to giving it back to them down 5...

I also think that last PI call was really unfortunate for GB, even though I REALLY wanted them to lose... IT SEEMED OBVIOUSLY UNCATCHABLE?!!!

[youtube]QGc-iPc-9dE[/youtube]

that soured the game a bit for me. Even if it was a good call they were letting them play all day... I would of liked to see if GB can fight back in that situation.

The PI was too obvious not to call though.

Maelstrom787 · Jan 24, 2021

Well, yeah. The SB playcall wasn't even that bad. It was a perfect storm of things simultaneously going wrong on the same play.

The FG call wasn't that bad. Even the analytic bots that people expected to roast LaFleur spit out soft recommendations to go for it, it was basically a toss-up.

You still need a touchdown, sure. But in the field goal scenario, you need a touchdown to WIN the game, rather than a touchdown AND a 2pt conversion just to TIE the game. Couple that with human factors like Brady's arm sailing every pass in the second half due to obvious fatigue, and kicking the field goal seems like at least a breakeven call with going for it.

zchurch74 · Jan 24, 2021

Why isn’t there being more said about Rogers running it in on third down. The closet defender was I. The back of the end zone and the Packers receiver could of easily blocked him. Rogers isn’t that slow. He should of just ran to the corner and he would of made it.

balakoth · Jan 24, 2021

Maelstrom787":3ltwiz3r said:
Well, yeah. The SB playcall wasn't even that bad. It was a perfect storm of things simultaneously going wrong on the same play.

The FG call wasn't that bad. Even the analytic bots that people expected to roast LaFleur spit out soft recommendations to go for it, it was basically a toss-up.

You still need a touchdown, sure. But in the field goal scenario, you need a touchdown to WIN the game, rather than a touchdown AND a 2pt conversion just to TIE the game. Couple that with human factors like Brady's arm sailing every pass in the second half due to obvious fatigue, and kicking the field goal seems like at least a breakeven call with going for it.

SUre if you ignore the other factors of the game... ya know.. times outs, 2 minutes left...

Going for a field goal and then needing to take it away to get a touch down to win, vs touch down to tie it and letting your defense at least try and fend off the game.. vs twice basically

DJ_CJ · Jan 24, 2021

You know things have to strike a cord when you’re not only rooting for TB12, which is bad enough, but by doing so also ultimately means giving Bruce Arians a win... screw A-Aron... and sadly I’m going to to have to run it back in the SB... I’ve grown sick of the Mahomes/Chiefs suck-up..especially while living in the midwest

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

seabowl · Jan 25, 2021

Tokadub":xbu6u4bt said:
I really wanted the TB Buccaneers to win the whole time... I thought Aaron Rodgers has been way too cocky and he needs to be brought down to earth (now he's 1-4 in Conference Finals, and 1 Super Bowl Win).

I also thought it was a very hilarious narrative if Tom Brady wins another Super Bowl without Belichick... Even Tom just making the Super Bowl I'm sure Belichick is going to be haunted for the rest of his life, kinda funny (I don't feel sorry for him after winning that much).

But the WAY the Packers lost... not going for it on 4th and 8 when even if you kick a Field Goal you STILL NEED A TOUCHDOWN... you are practically out of time against TOM BRADY... you really want to give the ball back instead of attempting to tie the game...?

The way I see it:

4th and 8 60% chance to score... 2 point conversion 60% chance to score...

Letting Tom Brady get the ball back with like 2:03 minutes left... I'm not a mathematician but I think going for it on 4th and 8 to tie the game is probably 3-4 times more likely to force over time and have a chance to win compared to giving it back to them down 5...

I also think that last PI call was really unfortunate for GB, even though I REALLY wanted them to lose... IT SEEMED OBVIOUSLY UNCATCHABLE?!!!

[youtube]QGc-iPc-9dE[/youtube]

that soured the game a bit for me. Even if it was a good call they were letting them play all day... I would of liked to see if GB can fight back in that situation.

Not picking on you but here's my take:

Not running the ball is 100% unquestionably a worse call and one that will be remembered more than any to date for as long as people who witnessed it are alive. That single interception lost the Superbowl.

As far as it being funny for Brady winning a bowl without Belicheck I'm not sure I understand how that's funny? I still don't get this hate for Brady. More like jealousy than anything IMO. Dudes a fierce competitor and just wins. Sorry but I like those kind of players.

pittpnthrs · Jan 25, 2021

The FG wasnt even close to being as bad as 'The Play'. GB had 3 timeouts (4 counting the 2 minute warning) and Brady wasnt sharp at all. The defense needed to make a stop and couldnt.

fenderbender123 · Jan 25, 2021

Yeah I'm sick of Mahommes too. Any QB where I see a commercial of them 20 times a game, I root against them. Mahommes is still on his lucky streak but next year there is going to be so much film on him that entire offense is going down the shitter.

Scorpion05 · Jan 25, 2021

Rodgers had several opportunities to score, or run. And he didn't. LaFleur's decision made sense, he was relying on the defense that got 3 interceptions

gowazzu02 · Jan 25, 2021

The thing about analytics is they assume an average player/team/opponent.

A Rodge for as much as I hate him, isn't average.

And on the other side? Brady - Not average.

Obviously hind site and all, but I was screaming at my tv when they sent in the fg unit.

As I was as the Bills continually sent in the FG unit. I mean hello, your going against Mahomes, 3 ain't gonna cut it.

Maelstrom787 · Jan 25, 2021

balakoth":3s1y0bgw said:
Maelstrom787":3s1y0bgw said:

Well, yeah. The SB playcall wasn't even that bad. It was a perfect storm of things simultaneously going wrong on the same play.

The FG call wasn't that bad. Even the analytic bots that people expected to roast LaFleur spit out soft recommendations to go for it, it was basically a toss-up.

You still need a touchdown, sure. But in the field goal scenario, you need a touchdown to WIN the game, rather than a touchdown AND a 2pt conversion just to TIE the game. Couple that with human factors like Brady's arm sailing every pass in the second half due to obvious fatigue, and kicking the field goal seems like at least a breakeven call with going for it.

Click to expand...

SUre if you ignore the other factors of the game... ya know.. times outs, 2 minutes left...

Going for a field goal and then needing to take it away to get a touch down to win, vs touch down to tie it and letting your defense at least try and fend off the game.. vs twice basically

It's not "touch down to tie it."

A 4th down and goal conversion from that spot was at about a 33% probability. They'd need to attempt a 2pt conversion - about 50% chance. That's just for a tie. They'd then need to hold the Buccaneers to 0 points in a 2 minute drive, just to make it to overtime, where they'd have about even odds of winning it.

You're ignoring just as many other factors. I'd much rather kick the field goal, hold a flailing Brady to a stop, and be in a position to win it with a TD than play for the tie and hope I can make it to overtime, much less win.

Edit: Added compilation of analytic models WP swing between go/kick. Toss-up.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/AudacityOfHoops/status/1353615016835117056[/tweet]

jeremiah · Jan 25, 2021

5thgen":1iyxcm23 said:
Tokadub":1iyxcm23 said:

I really wanted the TB Buccaneers to win the whole time... I thought Aaron Rodgers has been way too cocky and he needs to be brought down to earth (now he's 1-4 in Conference Finals, and 1 Super Bowl Win).

I also thought it was a very hilarious narrative if Tom Brady wins another Super Bowl without Belichick... Even Tom just making the Super Bowl I'm sure Belichick is going to be haunted for the rest of his life, kinda funny (I don't feel sorry for him after winning that much).

But the WAY the Packers lost... not going for it on 4th and 8 when even if you kick a Field Goal you STILL NEED A TOUCHDOWN... you are practically out of time against TOM BRADY... you really want to give the ball back instead of attempting to tie the game...?

The way I see it:

4th and 8 60% chance to score... 2 point conversion 60% chance to score...

Letting Tom Brady get the ball back with like 2:03 minutes left... I'm not a mathematician but I think going for it on 4th and 8 to tie the game is probably 3-4 times more likely to force over time and have a chance to win compared to giving it back to them down 5...

I also think that last PI call was really unfortunate for GB, even though I REALLY wanted them to lose... IT SEEMED OBVIOUSLY UNCATCHABLE?!!!

[youtube]QGc-iPc-9dE[/youtube]

that soured the game a bit for me. Even if it was a good call they were letting them play all day... I would of liked to see if GB can fight back in that situation.

Click to expand...

The PI was too obvious not to call though.

Holding the jersey with first the left hand, then transferring the hold to the right hand without missing a step was too much to let that go.

HawkRiderFan · Jan 25, 2021

Anyone find it ironic that Pete is considered so conservative (deservedly so) but in a couple of key play-off situations he has been aggressive and been rewarded:
1. The 4th down throw to Kearse in the 2013 NFC championship game
2. The decision to go for the TD right before the half in the Super Bowl vs the Pats. Had that game ended differently, Pete ends up with a lot of praise for a decision like that vs the heat for "the play"

Maelstrom787 · Jan 25, 2021

HawkRiderFan":3kld70u1 said:
Anyone find it ironic that Pete is considered so conservative (deservedly so) but in a couple of key play-off situations he has been aggressive and been rewarded:
1. The 4th down throw to Kearse in the 2013 NFC championship game
2. The decision to go for the TD right before the half in the Super Bowl vs the Pats. Had that game ended differently, Pete ends up with a lot of praise for a decision like that vs the heat for "the play"

It's all about the high standard Pete has brought to Seahawks football. People tend to criticize the result rather than the process, and when they criticize the process they usually do so unfairly compared to the rest of the league unfortunately. He didn't earn the Big Balls Pete moniker for nothing.

I'll admit his conservatism annoys me at times, but such is the norm in the league, moreso than most will admit.

beastalamode · Jan 25, 2021

HawkRiderFan":1uzc7eu5 said:
Anyone find it ironic that Pete is considered so conservative (deservedly so) but in a couple of key play-off situations he has been aggressive and been rewarded:
1. The 4th down throw to Kearse in the 2013 NFC championship game
2. The decision to go for the TD right before the half in the Super Bowl vs the Pats. Had that game ended differently, Pete ends up with a lot of praise for a decision like that vs the heat for "the play"

You give Pete too much credit, the 4th down throw happened because one of the niners had jumped off sides.

HawkRiderFan · Jan 25, 2021

beastalamode":2m6xbqhe said:
HawkRiderFan":2m6xbqhe said:

Anyone find it ironic that Pete is considered so conservative (deservedly so) but in a couple of key play-off situations he has been aggressive and been rewarded:
1. The 4th down throw to Kearse in the 2013 NFC championship game
2. The decision to go for the TD right before the half in the Super Bowl vs the Pats. Had that game ended differently, Pete ends up with a lot of praise for a decision like that vs the heat for "the play"

Click to expand...

You give Pete too much credit, the 4th down throw happened because one of the niners had jumped off sides.

I am giving Pete credit for actually going for it. If the decision to go for it on 4th down isn't made it, doesn't set up the chain of events, where Smith jumps off-side and Russ takes a deep shot.

Maelstrom787 · Jan 25, 2021

beastalamode":14bpbjsw said:
HawkRiderFan":14bpbjsw said:

Anyone find it ironic that Pete is considered so conservative (deservedly so) but in a couple of key play-off situations he has been aggressive and been rewarded:
1. The 4th down throw to Kearse in the 2013 NFC championship game
2. The decision to go for the TD right before the half in the Super Bowl vs the Pats. Had that game ended differently, Pete ends up with a lot of praise for a decision like that vs the heat for "the play"

Click to expand...

You give Pete too much credit, the 4th down throw happened because one of the niners had jumped off sides.

...yeah. The offense was out there on 4th down.

Tokadub · Jan 25, 2021

Maelstrom787":34dvzzx8 said:
The FG call wasn't that bad. Even the analytic bots that people expected to roast LaFleur spit out soft recommendations to go for it, it was basically a toss-up.

Maybe I'm wrong but I think the analytics are based on the averages of every scenario that has occurred in the NFL...

I heard the stats this morning it's like 10.5% if they go for it and like 9.5% if they don't go for it? Not sure exactly... but even with the analytics the right move was to go for it...

I think all the analytics prove is that they were unlikely to win in every scenario...

But I don't think the analytics account for having the MVP QB, arguably one of the best QB's of all time and their Super Bowl window is on the line...

First of all most teams that are behind by 8 in that situation in NFL history are bad teams, mediocre QB's etc...

So if you analyze the average outcomes of those situations of course the outcomes look bad both ways...

We are a LONG way from being able to provide analytics based on specific team vs team match ups, how good the QB is, etc...

That's my opinion, I'm fine with anyone who disagrees but from my understanding analytics are based on averages and statistics of those averages... Aaron Rodgers is not average so I don't think analytics are accurate... even the questionable analytics slightly favored going for it.

Packers FG on 4th and 8 was worst than Seahawk's int SB 49

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