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Silence Is Deafening

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Re: Silence Is Deafening
Sat Feb 20, 2021 10:03 am
  • chris98251 wrote:Here is what I see.

    Shula great Coach and his window was the early 70's

    Knoll great run mid 70's.

    Johnson had his window late 80's early 90's

    Walsh the early 80's till late 80's.

    Landry early 70's

    All these guys had windows, there are others such as Madden with the Raiders as well, but they have success windows, whether it be their systems a group of players or a staff that is in sync and work well together.

    Pete may have come to the end of his window, he had success with his big Corners and systems, he had success with a generation back in Lynch and a Staff that has over time been hired by other teams.

    The league adapting to his system, him being farther removed for the talent pool in college which he gleaned so well and the type of players he was selecting which other teams passed on since they were not prototypical in size for positions, has changed to where other teams choose them now based on Pete's success.

    Getting Wilson fit into all the above as well.

    What I am saying is also many of those teams held onto that coach too long Shula, Knoll, Landry.

    Cowher eventually got Pittsburgh back to contention, Johnson's was able to get Dallas back to success, Miami is still looking, we seen the collapse after Walsh handed the controls to Seifert and he rode Walsh's players till they were gone.

    You could throw The Rat in Denver into this as well until Elway retired.

    Maybe we have seen the end of Pete's window, we are fading not collapsing.

    Madden and Cowher, Johnson and Walsh stepped away while still a success, others retired in a losing house of cards.

    Thoughts?


    This is very astute. The system was actually figured out two or three seasons ago. It is a testament to the coaches and players that the Seahawks continue to win in the regular season. Their failures in the post season stem from them not varying things when they get to the playoffs.
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Re: Silence Is Deafening
Sat Feb 20, 2021 10:43 am
  • chris98251 wrote:Here is what I see.

    Shula great Coach and his window was the early 70's

    Knoll great run mid 70's.

    Johnson had his window late 80's early 90's

    Walsh the early 80's till late 80's.

    Landry early 70's

    All these guys had windows, there are others such as Madden with the Raiders as well, but they have success windows, whether it be their systems a group of players or a staff that is in sync and work well together.

    Pete may have come to the end of his window, he had success with his big Corners and systems, he had success with a generation back in Lynch and a Staff that has over time been hired by other teams.

    The league adapting to his system, him being farther removed for the talent pool in college which he gleaned so well and the type of players he was selecting which other teams passed on since they were not prototypical in size for positions, has changed to where other teams choose them now based on Pete's success.

    Getting Wilson fit into all the above as well.

    What I am saying is also many of those teams held onto that coach too long Shula, Knoll, Landry.

    Cowher eventually got Pittsburgh back to contention, Johnson's was able to get Dallas back to success, Miami is still looking, we seen the collapse after Walsh handed the controls to Seifert and he rode Walsh's players till they were gone.

    You could throw The Rat in Denver into this as well until Elway retired.

    Maybe we have seen the end of Pete's window, we are fading not collapsing.

    Madden and Cowher, Johnson and Walsh stepped away while still a success, others retired in a losing house of cards.

    Thoughts?



    I dont want to disagree too loudly , because there is something to this..in my mind not just coaches but players.

    But one of the examples you give..youve accidentally shown why its often not the case because -- frankly -- the NFL is a tough gig obviously.

    Don Shula.. you say had his window in the 70s and basically was done. But that is far, far from true.

    Yes..the Dolphins famously went to 3 straight Super Bowls, winning 2 from 1971 to 1973..but Shula didnt fade out. In the early 80s the Dolphins again went to the Superbowl 2 times in the space of 3 years.. one was the year BEFORE Dan Marino joined..1982, getting to the Super Bowl with David Woodley and Don Strock at QB.

    THEN.. after a 9 year gap, in the 1990s Don Shula fielded another series of strong teams.. they didnt get to the Super Bowl , because they twice faced that historic Buffalo team that went to 4 straight Super Bowls, then in 1994 they somehow lost to the Chargers in the divisional round despite winning the battle in just about every statistical category except points.

    Not only did Shula either go to the Super Bowl in 2 different decades and build very strong teams in 4 different decades (he won the NFL championship with Baltimore in 1968) , he built these teams very different ways. The 70s he let 3 star running backs and a super efficient (for the era) QB support a suffocating defense. In 1982..well.. hell..I will just say that was the best coaching job no one ever talks about. Like I said..David Woodley was the QB, the leading rusher had 700 something yards.. that was masterful. In the early 90s, the Dolphins went more balanced on offense as they adjusted to an aging Marino.

    That decade from 1973 to 1982 Im sure tons of people were sure the game had passed Shula by. and again from 1985 to 1990, at that point I was old enough that I remember speculation about whether a different coach was needed. and its true he didnt get to the Super Bowl in the 90s.. but thats another lesson: the other guys out there get paid too, they are trying to win too. Winning in the regular season is NOT enough, but doing it indicates a lot. And when you come up against other really, really good teams.. its a battle.


    Our last Super Bowl might seem a long time ago.. out last DEEP playoff run as well.. but, I would be caution against being too sure we know the reason. I dont even know that Pete is too stuck in his ways. I keep reading that.. but even what he means by "balance" has changed.. his goal for it has changed. Each DC we had, the defense clearly had different wrinkles. We fired an OC after a 12-4 season. Totally agree it had to be done, but can we at least acknowledge thats pretty rare?


    Pete Carroll has flaws. A lot of coaches do. But , man, we never even went through that true rebuilding we thought we would have to and nearly every NFL team does in the modern era.
    Its the normal cycle. But we didnt do it. We didnt go back to losing records for a couple years that made drafting easier and players cheaper. Despite always drafting in the bottom..every year.. weve stayed in the playoffs every year except one. and once youre in the tournament, youve got a chance.

    Maybe the game has passed Carroll by. I tend to doubt it, but its possible. But sometimes patience pays off. Mike Holmgren needed 7 years to get the Seahawks to the Super Bowl, and seemingly regressed the year before he got us there. His last 2 Super Bowl appearances were 8 years apart.


    The way we went out in the playoffs stung. Hurt. Left me angry and feeling hollow.

    But we shouldnt take that emotion and then emotionally dismiss the significance that we recaptured the West with one of our best 5 records ever.


    Flame away!
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Re: Silence Is Deafening
Sat Feb 20, 2021 1:44 pm
  • Spin Doctor wrote:
    knownone wrote:
    Spin Doctor wrote:
    knownone wrote:I could not agree more. The more I've learned about Russell's comments and the staging of the events leading up to them, the more I see why the front office would be upset. Russell is making the narrative entirely about him while subversively attacking the legacy and credibility of the organization. This has been a model franchise since Allen took over. Pete Carroll is one of the greatest coaches of all time. John Schneider is among the most respected and successful GM's in the NFL. Yet, Russ basically went on live television and talked as if he'd been in Detroit the past 10 years.

    Russ always talks about wanting to be like Jeter, but it's starting to look like his legacy in Seattle could end up looking like Arod.

    There are 15 Head Coaches that have a better playoff record than Pete Carroll since our last Super Bowl win, 15. Nobody has lost more playoff games in that time period than Pete Carroll. We keep losing because of the same reasons as well. Running conservative schemes that allow the other team to run up the score. When we finally let the reigns loose on Wilson we have too big of a deficit to overcome. It's been the story since 2015.

    Sorry, I'll definitely respond to the rest of your post in-depth (later today). But you hit me with a fascinating analysis of Pete being 15th in payoff record since our last Superbowl, and I had to dig in. Feel free to let me know if I missed any major coaches. My brain does not work as well as it used to, but I think I've got most of them.

    Wins(W) - Loss(L) - Total Games(G) - Appearances(A) - Potential Appearances (PA)

    Pete Carroll: 3-5-8-5-6
    Sean Payton: 3-4-7-4-6
    Sean McVay: 3-3-6-3-4
    Andy Reid: 7-5-12-6-6
    Mike Tomlin: 3-4-7-4-6
    John Harbaugh: 1-3-4-3-6
    Doug Pederson: 4-2-6-3-5
    Kyle Shanahan: 2-1-3-1-4
    Matt Lefluer: 2-2-4-2-2
    Mike Zimmer: 2-2-4-3-6
    Bill Belichick: 9-3-12-5-6
    Sean McDermott: 2-3-5-3-4
    Bruce Arians: 5-1-6-2-5
    Mike Vrabel: 2-2-4-2-3

    One obvious thing that stands out is that making the playoffs dramatically impacts your overall record. So while Pete has a worse % than many coaches, he's also played in the 3rd most games during that stretch. Furthermore, the two guys ahead of him have played in more home games.

    Playoff home games: W/L
    Carroll: 3/1
    Belichick: 5/1
    Reid: 5/4

    Here's where things get interesting. If we take Brady out of the mix and adjust for teams with QBs not on rookie contracts, your top 5 coaches' rankings look like this.

    Playoffs record w/o TB12 and QBs on rookie contracts: W/L/A

    Pete Carroll: 3/5/5
    Mike Tomlin: 3/4/4
    Sean Payton: 3/4/4
    Mike Zimmer: 2/2/3
    Matt Lefleur: 2/2/2

    In conclusion, when you ignore the GOAT and adjust for rookie contracts, all other things being equal, Pete Carroll is the most consistent coach in the league in terms of making the playoffs and winning in them. If you include Brady he's 3rd.

    Carroll's home wins came largely came during his first years back in in the NFL. Since 2015 he's batting .500 and he just lost a home game to an injured Jared Goff. His other home game since 2015 was against the Detroit Lions, a another case of a QB playing with an injured throwing arm, among other injuries.

    Furthermore Carroll realistically should have two wins. Blair Walsh missed a 27 yard field goal that would have won the Vikings the game in the final seconds. His record could very well be 2/6. Your numbers only reinforced my assertion, he has a worse win percentage, and has lost more playoff games than any of those coaches on the list except for John Harbaugh -- which is not a coach I included in my list of 15. Where is the consistency that you're talking about? Another thing that should also be mentioned is that Sean Payton, Matt Lefleur, Bill Belichick, Andy Reid, Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan, Sean McDermott, Mike Tomlin, Kubiak, Arians, Quinn and more have all been to a NFC/AFC championship or Super Bowl since 2015.

    Your numbers are doing nothing more than reinforcing my point. Carroll has lost more games than any of those coaches and has one of the worst records of the bunch next to John Harbaugh. If we look at those wins the picture becomes more bleak. Matt Stafford with an injured throwing arm, and sprained ankle, a Detroit Lions team that backed into the playoffs. A lucky missed 27 field goal at the end of regulation. A win against an Eagles team that barely made the playoffs and was fielding a 40 year something McCown, who also got injured during the course of the game. We don't have a single quality playoff win on our resume since 2015.

    If you're trying to prove Carroll's consistency in the playoffs, you didn't do a good job. If anything you shown that he consistently loses.

    On the contrary, I didn't have to prove Carroll's consistency because it is self-evident with any level of statistical analysis. You've explained your rationale for why that consistency is not reflective of his coaching ability. I can respect that opinion. However, rest assured that your analysis is still, in fact, an opinion. Pete's record is not.

    For example, let's assume I play along with you; I could say that if Jamal Adams wasn't hurt in the Ram's game, Seattle wins that game, and Pete is undoubtedly the best coach statistically when you adjust for rookie QBs and TB12. Saying that does not actually change his current win/loss record, so it's merely an unprovable opinion. Why? Because It would be impossible to meaningfully engage in hypotheticals without doing so for all other variables in the equation.

    In other words, the standard model, ceteris paribus, is on Pete's side. So the only way to create a model to detract from Pete's consistency is to change certain, but not all, underlying assumptions. The easiest way to acknowledge this fact is to ask a circumstantial question of the hypothetical.

    For example, you reference the Blair Walsh miss, but what if that game weren't played in a blizzard? Matt Stafford had an injured arm? What if Russell Wilson hadn't played on a high ankle sprain, or what if Earl Thomas hadn't broken his leg, etc... Those are just meaningless qualifiers we tell ourselves to reinforce our beliefs. In effect, we change the underlying assumptions to form a reality that suits our opinions, instead of objectively trying to discern reality from our opinions.

    You, much like the rest of the anti-Pete crowd, manipulate numbers to suit your point of view. That is why you think these numbers are reinforcing your point. You've omitted or explained away the areas that run contrary to your perspective to create an asymmetrical picture of the situation. This is fine, but don't pretend that your perspective is any more valuable than mine when half of your analysis involves what if scenarios.
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Re: Silence Is Deafening
Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:24 pm
  • And again, it does not matter if the game has passed Pete by or not. It matters that there is a risk it has.

    Whether it is true or not is immaterial because it is not the only factor. Not even the primary factor.

    The issue with Pete is that he comes to next to no upside, if not completely no upside.

    If you bet on him now, this is your future. You just have to imagine it either

    A) With Wilson (if you think we can keep him)

    or

    B) Without Wilson (shudder...if you think we cannot)

    So it doesn't matter if you dislike him, hate him, love him, or want to be the President of his New Fan Club. Whether it is his fault, Wilson's, JS', or mine....the problem with Pete is a complete lack of upside while carrying plenty of potential downside.

    Buying him now is like buying GameStop at 260. It COULD go up. Maybe a little. But most likely it is going way down to 60 if not 40.

    Pete does not have enough years in him to do a rebuild.

    So we either repeat our current record with Wilson (OK but not earth-shattering) or look at what our record will be without him. (Likely much worse, maybe only a little worse...unlikely in any scenario to be better). Pete won't even be able to do as well as he did recently, because a lot of that was the product of facing teams missing key pieces.

    There is no evidence Wilson will produce better outcomes without Pete. But at least doing so creates potential upside.
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Re: Silence Is Deafening
Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:55 pm
  • Vetamur wrote:
    chris98251 wrote:Here is what I see.

    Shula great Coach and his window was the early 70's

    Knoll great run mid 70's.

    Johnson had his window late 80's early 90's

    Walsh the early 80's till late 80's.

    Landry early 70's

    All these guys had windows, there are others such as Madden with the Raiders as well, but they have success windows, whether it be their systems a group of players or a staff that is in sync and work well together.

    Pete may have come to the end of his window, he had success with his big Corners and systems, he had success with a generation back in Lynch and a Staff that has over time been hired by other teams.

    The league adapting to his system, him being farther removed for the talent pool in college which he gleaned so well and the type of players he was selecting which other teams passed on since they were not prototypical in size for positions, has changed to where other teams choose them now based on Pete's success.

    Getting Wilson fit into all the above as well.

    What I am saying is also many of those teams held onto that coach too long Shula, Knoll, Landry.

    Cowher eventually got Pittsburgh back to contention, Johnson's was able to get Dallas back to success, Miami is still looking, we seen the collapse after Walsh handed the controls to Seifert and he rode Walsh's players till they were gone.

    You could throw The Rat in Denver into this as well until Elway retired.

    Maybe we have seen the end of Pete's window, we are fading not collapsing.

    Madden and Cowher, Johnson and Walsh stepped away while still a success, others retired in a losing house of cards.

    Thoughts?



    I dont want to disagree too loudly , because there is something to this..in my mind not just coaches but players.

    But one of the examples you give..youve accidentally shown why its often not the case because -- frankly -- the NFL is a tough gig obviously.

    Don Shula.. you say had his window in the 70s and basically was done. But that is far, far from true.

    Yes..the Dolphins famously went to 3 straight Super Bowls, winning 2 from 1971 to 1973..but Shula didnt fade out. In the early 80s the Dolphins again went to the Superbowl 2 times in the space of 3 years.. one was the year BEFORE Dan Marino joined..1982, getting to the Super Bowl with David Woodley and Don Strock at QB.

    THEN.. after a 9 year gap, in the 1990s Don Shula fielded another series of strong teams.. they didnt get to the Super Bowl , because they twice faced that historic Buffalo team that went to 4 straight Super Bowls, then in 1994 they somehow lost to the Chargers in the divisional round despite winning the battle in just about every statistical category except points.

    Not only did Shula either go to the Super Bowl in 2 different decades and build very strong teams in 4 different decades (he won the NFL championship with Baltimore in 1968) , he built these teams very different ways. The 70s he let 3 star running backs and a super efficient (for the era) QB support a suffocating defense. In 1982..well.. hell..I will just say that was the best coaching job no one ever talks about. Like I said..David Woodley was the QB, the leading rusher had 700 something yards.. that was masterful. In the early 90s, the Dolphins went more balanced on offense as they adjusted to an aging Marino.

    That decade from 1973 to 1982 Im sure tons of people were sure the game had passed Shula by. and again from 1985 to 1990, at that point I was old enough that I remember speculation about whether a different coach was needed. and its true he didnt get to the Super Bowl in the 90s.. but thats another lesson: the other guys out there get paid too, they are trying to win too. Winning in the regular season is NOT enough, but doing it indicates a lot. And when you come up against other really, really good teams.. its a battle.


    Our last Super Bowl might seem a long time ago.. out last DEEP playoff run as well.. but, I would be caution against being too sure we know the reason. I dont even know that Pete is too stuck in his ways. I keep reading that.. but even what he means by "balance" has changed.. his goal for it has changed. Each DC we had, the defense clearly had different wrinkles. We fired an OC after a 12-4 season. Totally agree it had to be done, but can we at least acknowledge thats pretty rare?


    Pete Carroll has flaws. A lot of coaches do. But , man, we never even went through that true rebuilding we thought we would have to and nearly every NFL team does in the modern era.
    Its the normal cycle. But we didnt do it. We didnt go back to losing records for a couple years that made drafting easier and players cheaper. Despite always drafting in the bottom..every year.. weve stayed in the playoffs every year except one. and once youre in the tournament, youve got a chance.

    Maybe the game has passed Carroll by. I tend to doubt it, but its possible. But sometimes patience pays off. Mike Holmgren needed 7 years to get the Seahawks to the Super Bowl, and seemingly regressed the year before he got us there. His last 2 Super Bowl appearances were 8 years apart.


    The way we went out in the playoffs stung. Hurt. Left me angry and feeling hollow.

    But we shouldnt take that emotion and then emotionally dismiss the significance that we recaptured the West with one of our best 5 records ever.


    Flame away!


    Flame away at what?

    Wherever you stand on Pete’s current day relevance, this is a well thought out counterpoint based on empirical data backed up with stats. I enjoyed this post very much. I assume you grew up as a Dolphins fan or at least in a market with Miami media presence.
    rjdriver
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Re: Silence Is Deafening
Sat Feb 20, 2021 10:32 pm
  • rjdriver wrote:Flame away at what?

    Wherever you stand on Pete’s current day relevance, this is a well thought out counterpoint based on empirical data backed up with stats. I enjoyed this post very much. I assume you grew up as a Dolphins fan or at least in a market with Miami media presence.


    Vetamur is a personal friend of mine and may be one of the smartest people I know. Even if he foolishly doesn't believe that Extraterrestrials are here and secret elements of our government have known about it for decades. None of us are perfect after all.

    :greetingsearthling:

    Kidding aside, Vetamur, keep posting. It elevates this place.
    Aros
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Re: Silence Is Deafening
Sun Feb 21, 2021 12:36 am
  • TwistedHusky wrote:And again, it does not matter if the game has passed Pete by or not. It matters that there is a risk it has.

    Whether it is true or not is immaterial because it is not the only factor. Not even the primary factor.

    The issue with Pete is that he comes to next to no upside, if not completely no upside.

    If you bet on him now, this is your future. You just have to imagine it either

    A) With Wilson (if you think we can keep him)

    or

    B) Without Wilson (shudder...if you think we cannot)

    So it doesn't matter if you dislike him, hate him, love him, or want to be the President of his New Fan Club. Whether it is his fault, Wilson's, JS', or mine....the problem with Pete is a complete lack of upside while carrying plenty of potential downside.

    Buying him now is like buying GameStop at 260. It COULD go up. Maybe a little. But most likely it is going way down to 60 if not 40.

    Pete does not have enough years in him to do a rebuild.

    So we either repeat our current record with Wilson (OK but not earth-shattering) or look at what our record will be without him. (Likely much worse, maybe only a little worse...unlikely in any scenario to be better). Pete won't even be able to do as well as he did recently, because a lot of that was the product of facing teams missing key pieces.

    There is no evidence Wilson will produce better outcomes without Pete. But at least doing so creates potential upside.


    In my personal opinion, this is a very flawed view -- whether, as you said, you like or dislike Carroll.

    There is still plenty of "upside" to Pete Carroll as a coach. Game day things like plays called may be the most obvious and direct coaching effects, but they are a relatively small portion of a coach's job and influence. The head coach is responsible for the whole program and tone. Most head coaches dont run a program that is even capable of getting to the Super Bowl. You dont know til its too late, but a list coaches who make it to the Super Bowl, especially multiple ones is short and not random. A list of Super Bowl WINNERS..even shorter, and again, not random. Pete Carroll's program , taken in its entirety, is a program that is run a way that can get a team to the Super Bowl.

    Pete Carroll's program does have upside. It has created a team that players want to come to. It has created a generation of leaders in and out of the NFL. It creates a competitive, healthy atmosphere that other teams have copied, down to the seemingly small details like music at training camp and Tell the Truth Monday.

    Is there upside on the ON FIELD product? Youve said no..but here are our records the last 4 years:

    2020: 12-4
    2019: 11-5
    2018: 10-6
    2017: 9-7

    Its a bit weird to say we cant get better under Carroll while we literally have gotten better every year the past 3 years, with our division rivals obviously playing nearly identical schedules.


    Moving forward, it will be WITH Wilson. Wilson obviously has some points. But man is he going about things the wrong way now. Why do this complaining publicly , and why after the hiring of a new coordinator that he had input on? Its also the first time Wilson has basically come out and said he could do a better job than people hired to their own jobs, and thats always dangerous to say out loud even if you think so because you are still going to have to work with them. There's also some lack of self awareness there..when you push for "stars", when you take every dollar you can, when your own style leads to sacks (and big plays).. again, I agree that the O line has to get better, and adapt to an older Russ.. but, man, I would have liked Russ to have been saying this in his Zoom meetings.

    Wilson as a practical matter just isnt going anywhere. I kind of assume some of this was a reaction to seeing Brady collect some of his friends, NBA style, and go win a Super Bowl in Tampa. But that was an aberration. Gronk had been retired and AB had run himself out of the league.. so the price was cheap and it was just a weird situation. Do we know any in their prime but retired players that want to come back and play for Russ? Once football begins, and winning begins.. a lot of this will go by the way side.
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Re: Silence Is Deafening
Sun Feb 21, 2021 12:42 am
  • Aros wrote:
    rjdriver wrote:Flame away at what?

    Wherever you stand on Pete’s current day relevance, this is a well thought out counterpoint based on empirical data backed up with stats. I enjoyed this post very much. I assume you grew up as a Dolphins fan or at least in a market with Miami media presence.


    Vetamur is a personal friend of mine and may be one of the smartest people I know. Even if he foolishly doesn't believe that Extraterrestrials are here and secret elements of our government have known about it for decades. None of us are perfect after all.

    :greetingsearthling:

    Kidding aside, Vetamur, keep posting. It elevates this place.


    Thanks Aros.. wait til you get my take once they have proof of past life on Mars, youll want to punch me. :greetingsearthling:


    Im not a Dolphins fan and have never been to Miami. Im just old and spent endless hours in the 80s and 90s going over stats and numbers and everything in newspapers and magazines in the pre internet age of NFL fandom. Ive always been a Seahawk fan, but Ive also been an NFL fan and when the Dolphins with a "conservative" coach ended up an all time great QB named Dan Marino it sparked a lot of debate and interest..and a lot of parallels to Carroll and Wilson now.
    Vetamur
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Re: Silence Is Deafening
Sun Feb 21, 2021 5:47 am
  • Vetamur wrote:
    TwistedHusky wrote:And again, it does not matter if the game has passed Pete by or not. It matters that there is a risk it has.

    Whether it is true or not is immaterial because it is not the only factor. Not even the primary factor.

    The issue with Pete is that he comes to next to no upside, if not completely no upside.

    If you bet on him now, this is your future. You just have to imagine it either

    A) With Wilson (if you think we can keep him)

    or

    B) Without Wilson (shudder...if you think we cannot)

    So it doesn't matter if you dislike him, hate him, love him, or want to be the President of his New Fan Club. Whether it is his fault, Wilson's, JS', or mine....the problem with Pete is a complete lack of upside while carrying plenty of potential downside.

    Buying him now is like buying GameStop at 260. It COULD go up. Maybe a little. But most likely it is going way down to 60 if not 40.

    Pete does not have enough years in him to do a rebuild.

    So we either repeat our current record with Wilson (OK but not earth-shattering) or look at what our record will be without him. (Likely much worse, maybe only a little worse...unlikely in any scenario to be better). Pete won't even be able to do as well as he did recently, because a lot of that was the product of facing teams missing key pieces.

    There is no evidence Wilson will produce better outcomes without Pete. But at least doing so creates potential upside.


    In my personal opinion, this is a very flawed view -- whether, as you said, you like or dislike Carroll.

    There is still plenty of "upside" to Pete Carroll as a coach. Game day things like plays called may be the most obvious and direct coaching effects, but they are a relatively small portion of a coach's job and influence. The head coach is responsible for the whole program and tone. Most head coaches dont run a program that is even capable of getting to the Super Bowl. You dont know til its too late, but a list coaches who make it to the Super Bowl, especially multiple ones is short and not random. A list of Super Bowl WINNERS..even shorter, and again, not random. Pete Carroll's program , taken in its entirety, is a program that is run a way that can get a team to the Super Bowl.

    Pete Carroll's program does have upside. It has created a team that players want to come to. It has created a generation of leaders in and out of the NFL. It creates a competitive, healthy atmosphere that other teams have copied, down to the seemingly small details like music at training camp and Tell the Truth Monday.

    Is there upside on the ON FIELD product? Youve said no..but here are our records the last 4 years:

    2020: 12-4
    2019: 11-5
    2018: 10-6
    2017: 9-7

    Its a bit weird to say we cant get better under Carroll while we literally have gotten better every year the past 3 years, with our division rivals obviously playing nearly identical schedules.


    Moving forward, it will be WITH Wilson. Wilson obviously has some points. But man is he going about things the wrong way now. Why do this complaining publicly , and why after the hiring of a new coordinator that he had input on? Its also the first time Wilson has basically come out and said he could do a better job than people hired to their own jobs, and thats always dangerous to say out loud even if you think so because you are still going to have to work with them. There's also some lack of self awareness there..when you push for "stars", when you take every dollar you can, when your own style leads to sacks (and big plays).. again, I agree that the O line has to get better, and adapt to an older Russ.. but, man, I would have liked Russ to have been saying this in his Zoom meetings.

    Wilson as a practical matter just isnt going anywhere. I kind of assume some of this was a reaction to seeing Brady collect some of his friends, NBA style, and go win a Super Bowl in Tampa. But that was an aberration. Gronk had been retired and AB had run himself out of the league.. so the price was cheap and it was just a weird situation. Do we know any in their prime but retired players that want to come back and play for Russ? Once football begins, and winning begins.. a lot of this will go by the way side.


    2017 - No Playoffs
    2018 - 1st round loss in Wild Card game
    2019 - Lost in 2nd round
    2020 - After fooling people with a 12-4 record due to a cream puff schedule another 1st round playoff loss

    Has the team really gotten any better? Just by using the casual eye test, you knew Seattle wasnt going anywhere once the playoffs started. They feasted on weak teams during the regular season and beat nobody of any relevance except the Rams once and they had two shots at that. Bottom line is that a teams success and improvements should be measured by post season success and not fancy regular season records with mitigating factors.

    As for Wilson going about it wrong, I dont think so. Wilson went about it the only way that he could to get results. If he doesnt go public then his pleas are falling on deaf ears. As fans of the Seahawks, we already know that Pete doesnt make the Oline a high priority (never has) and Russ and the team has struggled due to it. Now that its out in the open, a lot more eyes are on the subject than just the Seattle faithfuls. Russ went public because he is seeing the big picture. He's getting older and his window is getting closer and he's desperate for change.
    pittpnthrs
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Re: Silence Is Deafening
Sun Feb 21, 2021 12:26 pm
  • pittpnthrs wrote:As fans of the Seahawks, we already know that Pete doesnt make the Oline a high priority (never has) and Russ and the team has struggled due to it


    I am curious as to what teams you believe make the OLine a high priority and what is the evidence to back it up.
    BASF
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Re: Silence Is Deafening
Sun Feb 21, 2021 1:57 pm
  • Can't believe it takes all these pages to say that Wilson has a no-trade clause in his contract and would cost 39 million in cap even if he agreed to a trade. Nobody in the front office needs to say anything because it's blatantly obvious Wilson is not going to be traded.

    Another ridiculous thread.
    KiwiHawk
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Re: Silence Is Deafening
Sun Feb 21, 2021 3:01 pm
  • pittpnthrs wrote:2017 - No Playoffs
    2018 - 1st round loss in Wild Card game
    2019 - Lost in 2nd round
    2020 - After fooling people with a 12-4 record due to a cream puff schedule another 1st round playoff loss

    Has the team really gotten any better? Just by using the casual eye test, you knew Seattle wasnt going anywhere once the playoffs started. They feasted on weak teams during the regular season and beat nobody of any relevance except the Rams once and they had two shots at that. Bottom line is that a teams success and improvements should be measured by post season success and not fancy regular season records with mitigating factors.

    As for Wilson going about it wrong, I dont think so. Wilson went about it the only way that he could to get results. If he doesnt go public then his pleas are falling on deaf ears. As fans of the Seahawks, we already know that Pete doesnt make the Oline a high priority (never has) and Russ and the team has struggled due to it. Now that its out in the open, a lot more eyes are on the subject than just the Seattle faithfuls. Russ went public because he is seeing the big picture. He's getting older and his window is getting closer and he's desperate for change.

    Your eye test is not a reliable indicator of the team's improvement over the past 4 years. If we follow your logic of only valuing postseason success, Andy Reid would never have been given a chance to win a Superbowl because he had 1 playoff win in 9 years.

    We started a rebuild in 2018 after multiple serious or career-ending injuries derailed 2017. We didn't emerge from cap hell until 2020, and we won 12 games. Statistically, last season was our best since 2016. In other words, the team has improved by every measure but your eye test.

    Furthermore, Russell is directly responsible for 3 of our losses this season, and it could be argued, he was the reason we lost the playoff game. I don't blame him for those games, but if he's willing to blame the team publicly for their failure. Perhaps he could take accountability for his.
    knownone
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Re: Silence Is Deafening
Sun Feb 21, 2021 4:47 pm
  • This is hilarious.

    Pete Carroll's 'upside' was the past 2 years!

    2019 we literally faced 4 teams with backup QBs.

    2020 The division favorite went down because of a tremendous injury deluge, likely the result of no training camp/preseason. We also managed to go to the playoffs as the home team against a team with an injured QB. (We lost that game btw)

    We won the division last year. We played the easiest possible playoff opponent we could get and we still lost.

    That WAS the upside. We won the division and still got beaten by a 1/2 a football team. It won't happen again because we won't get such a cakewalk path to the playoffs again.



    Both the 49ers and the Rams get better next year. One by finally getting a productive QB and one by just getting healthy again.

    We actually get worse because we likely lose Carson. He was a pivotal player for us.

    So I am not sure where the whole 'Carroll has plenty of upside' sunshine is coming from. You SAW his upside. That was it. Nothing else. His normal productivity was more in the 9-10 win range WITH Wilson but without the LOB. We've seen that too...for years before 2019 and 2020.

    It really does not matter. All the data says we are going to get worse, not better. Our roster gets weaker while our opponent rosters in the division get stronger. The chance of facing 1/3 of our schedule stuck only with backup QBs is low. The chance our key division rivals lose their top players again? Also low.

    But the thread is about the silence of the FO here...

    The FO seems to be choosing to support Pete in this by the silence. (Since Pete IS the FO) That is a problem because we are betting on the old horse that likely won't even finish the race. Pete is old. Getting less worthwhile. Almost worthless at this point, in terms of coaching value. And he won't have enough years in him to put a rebuild together that has a successful outcome again.

    Pete's upside right now is the occasional wildcard win. His down side is missing the playoffs entirely.

    We have no idea what Wilson's upside without Pete is ....but it makes sense to explore because there is no benefit in riding an aging Pete to a series of limping finishes again until we utterly implode. Then we would have no Pete and no Wilson...yay.
    TwistedHusky
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Re: Silence Is Deafening
Sun Feb 21, 2021 5:40 pm
  • knownone wrote:
    pittpnthrs wrote:2017 - No Playoffs
    2018 - 1st round loss in Wild Card game
    2019 - Lost in 2nd round
    2020 - After fooling people with a 12-4 record due to a cream puff schedule another 1st round playoff loss

    Has the team really gotten any better? Just by using the casual eye test, you knew Seattle wasnt going anywhere once the playoffs started. They feasted on weak teams during the regular season and beat nobody of any relevance except the Rams once and they had two shots at that. Bottom line is that a teams success and improvements should be measured by post season success and not fancy regular season records with mitigating factors.

    As for Wilson going about it wrong, I dont think so. Wilson went about it the only way that he could to get results. If he doesnt go public then his pleas are falling on deaf ears. As fans of the Seahawks, we already know that Pete doesnt make the Oline a high priority (never has) and Russ and the team has struggled due to it. Now that its out in the open, a lot more eyes are on the subject than just the Seattle faithfuls. Russ went public because he is seeing the big picture. He's getting older and his window is getting closer and he's desperate for change.

    Your eye test is not a reliable indicator of the team's improvement over the past 4 years. If we follow your logic of only valuing postseason success, Andy Reid would never have been given a chance to win a Superbowl because he had 1 playoff win in 9 years.

    We started a rebuild in 2018 after multiple serious or career-ending injuries derailed 2017. We didn't emerge from cap hell until 2020, and we won 12 games. Statistically, last season was our best since 2016. In other words, the team has improved by every measure but your eye test.

    Furthermore, Russell is directly responsible for 3 of our losses this season, and it could be argued, he was the reason we lost the playoff game. I don't blame him for those games, but if he's willing to blame the team publicly for their failure. Perhaps he could take accountability for his.


    I think my eye test was pretty reliable. I saw a team that wasnt nearly as good as their regular season record indicated. Face it, they played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. A schedule they dont gave the luxury of playing next season. My eye test told me they were going to get beat early in the playoffs (again) and thats what happened.

    So the Hawks played a terribly easy schedule and lost again in the first round of the playoffs and you believe they have improved by every measure?

    Russell was also responsible for a lot of wins last season in which he didnt take credit for. Is that being accountable?
    pittpnthrs
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Re: Silence Is Deafening
Sun Feb 21, 2021 5:46 pm
  • knownone wrote:
    pittpnthrs wrote:2017 - No Playoffs
    2018 - 1st round loss in Wild Card game
    2019 - Lost in 2nd round
    2020 - After fooling people with a 12-4 record due to a cream puff schedule another 1st round playoff loss

    Has the team really gotten any better? Just by using the casual eye test, you knew Seattle wasnt going anywhere once the playoffs started. They feasted on weak teams during the regular season and beat nobody of any relevance except the Rams once and they had two shots at that. Bottom line is that a teams success and improvements should be measured by post season success and not fancy regular season records with mitigating factors.

    As for Wilson going about it wrong, I dont think so. Wilson went about it the only way that he could to get results. If he doesnt go public then his pleas are falling on deaf ears. As fans of the Seahawks, we already know that Pete doesnt make the Oline a high priority (never has) and Russ and the team has struggled due to it. Now that its out in the open, a lot more eyes are on the subject than just the Seattle faithfuls. Russ went public because he is seeing the big picture. He's getting older and his window is getting closer and he's desperate for change.

    Your eye test is not a reliable indicator of the team's improvement over the past 4 years. If we follow your logic of only valuing postseason success, Andy Reid would never have been given a chance to win a Superbowl because he had 1 playoff win in 9 years.

    We started a rebuild in 2018 after multiple serious or career-ending injuries derailed 2017. We didn't emerge from cap hell until 2020, and we won 12 games. Statistically, last season was our best since 2016. In other words, the team has improved by every measure but your eye test.

    Furthermore, Russell is directly responsible for 3 of our losses this season, and it could be argued, he was the reason we lost the playoff game. I don't blame him for those games, but if he's willing to blame the team publicly for their failure. Perhaps he could take accountability for his.


    So you missed the part were he said he needs to play better also huh?
    John63
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Re: Silence Is Deafening
Sun Feb 21, 2021 5:49 pm
  • BASF wrote:
    pittpnthrs wrote:As fans of the Seahawks, we already know that Pete doesnt make the Oline a high priority (never has) and Russ and the team has struggled due to it


    I am curious as to what teams you believe make the OLine a high priority and what is the evidence to back it up.


    The Browns and look what happened. Made the playoffs and now a contender.
    Packers - Sickening how much time Rogers has back there.
    Tampa Bay - Brady could take a nap in the pocket at times
    Saints - They have the two best tackles in the league
    Chiefs, Bills, Rams, Steelers,,,,etc.

    See a pattern there?
    pittpnthrs
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Re: Silence Is Deafening
Mon Feb 22, 2021 9:03 am
  • pittpnthrs wrote:
    BASF wrote:
    pittpnthrs wrote:As fans of the Seahawks, we already know that Pete doesnt make the Oline a high priority (never has) and Russ and the team has struggled due to it


    I am curious as to what teams you believe make the OLine a high priority and what is the evidence to back it up.


    The Browns and look what happened. Made the playoffs and now a contender.
    Packers - Sickening how much time Rogers has back there.
    Tampa Bay - Brady could take a nap in the pocket at times
    Saints - They have the two best tackles in the league
    Chiefs, Bills, Rams, Steelers,,,,etc.

    See a pattern there?


    Yeah the referenced post is confusing...it's basically a given that SB's are won in the trenches, and our two biggest weaknesses were o-line and d-line. O-line as a result of years of poor drafting and development, and d-line as a result of neglect and thinking you can cover for it with a good secondary, when in reality it's the other way around.

    Though I guess it is easier for fans to solely blame a singular entity like a QB rather than widespread organizational deficiencies in coaching, drafting, development, and player execution (which does include the QB).
    ducks41468
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