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Analyzing the Contenders Drafts + Cowboys Since 2013

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  • 2013 - No Pick
    2014 - No Pick
    2015 - No Pick
    2016 - Germain Ifedi
    2017 - No Pick
    2018 - Rashaad Penny
    2019 - LJ Collier
    2020 - Jordyn Brooks
    2021 - No Pick (Very Likely)
    2022 - No Pick (Likely, unless they trade a blue chip player.)

    WOW! Only 4 selections in the 1st round in a decade, bad picks to boot when they did pick. Brooks looks good but he is playing the RB position of the defense trapped behind Wagner.

    Holy Crap!

    https://old.reddit.com/r/Seahawks/comments/m6odc4/til_poona_ford_will_become_only_the_seahawks/

    Poona is only 4th player since 2013 to get a second contract from the Seahawks that they drafted/UDFA.

    Britt, Lockett, & Reed being the others.

    So in Rounds 2-7 & UDFA hasn't been that great either. I'm going to do a breakdown of other comparable teams when I have the time, but this is not good.

    //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
    *UPDATE*
    /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

    I'm doing a deep dive on the top 8 teams or thereabouts over the last 8 years + the Cowboys. :D
    Looking at 1st round asset allocation firstly, the rest of their draft secondarily, and overall retention thirdly.

    * If a team moved on from a guy (multi-year) and they succeed it will be classified as an "L."

    * If a team re-signed a guy (multi-year) and they flopped it will be classified as an "L."

    * If a team re-signed a guy (multi-year) and they succeed it will be classified as a "W."

    * If a team moved on from a guy (multi-year) and they flopped it will be classified as a "W."

    * The Bust label is applicable to 1st selection only, and ignored afterwards to avoid semantics. Unless the team in question has multiple 1st round picks, then all 1st rounders will be counted.

    * 1st selections will be classified as busts who do not get big multi-year 2nd contracts with few exceptions, if any.

    * 2nd selection and beyond, I am focusing on just the "Hits" (bigger multi-year contracts).

    * 5 Designations in total: Hit, W, Retained, Bust, and L.

    * SCORING SYSTEM:
    +3 points for a Hit;
    +2 points for Retained;
    +1 point for a W;
    Negative 1 point for an L;
    Negative 3 points for a 1st Selection Bust;
    Negative 3 points for Poor 1st rd Asset usage (Bad Trade).


    First up is the 2013 NFL Draft.

    BALTIMORE RAVENS 2013
    ------
    1st / 32 - Matt Elam (S) [BUST]
    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    094 - NT - Brandon Williams [W] 5 yrs $54M w/Baltimore - One of the best NTs in football.
    130 - FB - Kyle Juszczyk [L] / 4 yrs $21M w/ SF + 5yrs $27M w/SF - Best FB in football.
    168 - OT - Ricky Wagner [W] / 5 yrs $47.5M w/Detroit
    203 - C - Ryan Jensen [L] / 4 yrs $42M w/Tampa Bay
    UDFA - S - Brynden Trawick [L] Became a Pro-Bowl Special Teams Gunner with the Titans.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Baltimore killed this draft, hitting on 5 players, but let 4 of them walk, smartly didn't pay Wagner, though.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    5 Hits; 2 W's; 1 Retained; 3 L's; 1 Bust = 13 points.


    DALLAS COWBOYS 2013
    ------
    1st / 31 - Travis Frederick (C ) [HIT][W] - 5x Pro Bowl - 6 yrs 56.6M w/Dallas

    *Dallas traded down from 18 to acquire the 74th pick which turned into:
    Terrance Williams [L] 4 yrs $17M w/Dallas - Injuries and Substance abuse.
    ------
    Other Notable Selections: None
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Dallas hit on Frederick, Williams was an okay starter until he got paid, the rest of their draft was career backups and busts.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    1 Hit; 1 W; 1 Retained; 1 L = 5 points.


    GREEN BAY PACKERS 2013
    ------
    1st / 26 - Datone Jones (DL) [BUST]
    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    061 - RB - Eddie Lacey - All Rookie Team and Pro Bowler
    109 - LT - David Bakhtiari [W] - 4 yrs 48M + 4 yrs $105.5M w/Packers - 2x All-Pro - 3x 2nd Team All-Pro.
    122 - C - JC Tretter [L] - 3 yrs $16.75M + 3yrs $32.5M w/Cleveland - Current NFLPA President.
    159 - FS - Micah Hyde [L] - 5 yrs $30.5M w/Buffalo - 2nd Team All-Pro w/Buffalo.
    UDFA - G - Lane Taylor [W] - 2 yrs $4.15M w/Packers + 3 yrs $16.5M w/Packers. Starter.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Green Bay killed it, hitting on 5 players, Retaining Bakhtiari, losing Tretter because their O-Line was loaded. Let Lacey walk, but they won't get a W for it due to Lacey not getting a massive pay day when he fell off a cliff in SEA signing a 1 yr prove it deal (which he didn't).
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    5 Hits; 2 W's; 2 Retained; 2 L's; 1 Bust = 16 points.


    KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 2013
    ------
    1st / 1 - Eric Fisher (OT) [HIT][W] - 2x Pro Bowl - 4 yrs $48M extension w/Chiefs.
    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    063 - TE - Travis Kelce [W] 5 yrs $46M w/KC - 3x 1st Team All-Pro, 2x 2nd Team All-Pro.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Fisher barely qualifies as a hit. He was good enough to get a 4 yr extension and make a couple of Pro Bowls, Kelce is a HoF TE.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    2 Hits; 2 W's; 2 Retained = 12 points


    NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 2013
    ------
    2nd / 52 - Jamie Collins (LB) (1st Draft Selection) [HIT][W] - 1x Pro Bowl - Traded to Cleveland, avoided paying big money; 4 yrs $50M w/Cleveland.

    *New England Traded down from 29 acquiring the 83rd, 102nd, and 229th from Minnesota.

    083 - CB - Logan Ryan [L] 3 yrs $30M w/Titans + 1 yr $7.5M w/Giants + 3 yrs $31M w/Giants.
    He pick six'd TB on his last throw in Foxborough w/the Titans in the Playoffs, has 18 career INTs. 2x Super Bowl Champion.

    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    091 - S - Duron Harmon [W] 4 yrs $20M w/NE - 19 Career INTs, 3x Super Bowl Champion.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    NE got incredible value with the 29th pick, then wisely traded Jamie Collins when he was asking for crazy money, shouldn't have let Logan Ryan walk, finally they extended Duran Harmon at a great rate.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    3 Hits; 2 W's; 1 Retained; 1 L = 12 points


    NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 2013
    ------
    1st / 15 - Kenny Vaccaro (S) [BUST]

    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    075 - LT - Terron Armstead [W] 5 yrs $65M w/NO - 3x Pro Bowl, 1x 2nd Team All-Pro.
    144 - WR - Kenny Stills [W] 4 yrs $32M w/MIA. Fell off after getting paid.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    NO found a gem of a LT in the 3rd round, knew Stills wasn't worth paying so they traded him.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    2 Hits; 2 W's; 1 Retained; 1 Bust = 7 points


    PITTSBURGH STEELERS 2013
    ------
    1st / 17 - Jarvis Jones (EDGE) [BUST]

    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    048 - RB - Le'Veon Bell [W] 2x 1st Team All-Pro - 4 yrs $52M w/NYJ.
    206 - ILB - Vince Williams [W] 3 yrs $18.6M w/Pittsburgh.
    UDFA - OL - Chris Hubbard [W] 5 yrs $37.5M w/Cleveland.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Pittsburgh found the best young Runningback in football, then wisely didn't pay him as he floundered with the Jets. Big W. Found a starting LB in the 6th round and gave him a multi-year 2nd contract. Chis Hubbard was massively overpaid by Cleveland and was eventually benched.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    3 Hits; 3 W's; 1 Retained; 1 Bust = 11 points


    SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 2013
    ------
    1st / 25 - Percy Harvin (WR) [Bad Trade][L] 6 yrs $66M w/Seattle

    *Also traded a 2013 7th rounder, and a 2014 3rd rounder for Harvin.

    2nd / 62 - Christine Michael (RB) (1st Draft Selection) [BUST]

    * Seattle traded down from 56 for picks 165 and 199, did nothing with them.

    ------
    Other Notable Selections: None

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Seattle had 3 legendary drafts previously that put them in dynasty in the making territory. But this one might go down as the worst draft of the decade in the entire league. They selected 11 players, 12 if you want to include Harvin. They were all busts and backups. The Harvin trade did immense damage costing them multiple players down the road (can't keep everyone), and a future 3rd rd draft pick to boot. To add insult to injury Seattle spent their 1st selection on Chistine Michael as the heir apparent to Marshawn Lynch, passing up tons of O-Lineman in one of the great O-Line drafts of the century.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    0 Hits; 1 L; 1 Bust; 1 Bad Trade = Negative 7 points


    THE RAMS (LA/ST. LOUIS) 2013
    ------
    1st / 8 - Tavon Austin (WR) [BUST][L] 4 yrs $42M w/The Rams.

    * Leftovers from the RG III trade:
    1st / 30 - Alec Ogletree (LB) [HIT][L] 2nd Team All-Pro - 4 yrs $42.75M w/The Rams.

    *The Rams traded down from 22 picking up the 92nd and 198th picks, did nothing with them.
    ------
    Other Notable Selections: None

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    The Rams overall had a terrible draft, but at least they were able to get quality play out of Alec Ogletree for 4 seasons. He fell off a cliff once he got paid though. Austin was foolishly given a big money extension as well despite doing really nothing of note for it. Never compiling 1,000 total yards in a single season as a runner/receiver. The Rams quickly regretted it.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    1 Hit; 2 Retained; 2 L's; 1 Bust = 2 points


    TOTALS:
    1st GB = 16 pts
    2nd BAL = 13 pts
    3rd KC = 12 pts
    3rd NE = 12 pts
    5th PIT = 11 pts
    6th NO = 7 pts
    7th DAL = 5 pts
    8th RAM = 2 pts
    9th SEA = -7 pts

    I will post 2014 NEXT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Last edited by Fade on Tue Mar 23, 2021 10:16 pm, edited 2 times in total.
    Fade
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  • and people wonder why we have to let other teams develop players so they can trade a ton for them. A very telling tale of what is going on.
    Cyrus12
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  • Cyrus12 wrote:and people wonder why we have to let other teams develop players so they can trade a ton for them. A very telling tale of what is going on.


    Let other teams develop them? Hmmm. Seems we dont have a choice if we arent using first rounders. You act like Adam's was the first time we did that. Let them develop. It's a better strategy then just drafting said analyst top 50 prospects. Which are always hit or miss. More miss than anything. Why not wait a year or two to see if that player pans out and then when you have a position of need bam take your shot to get em. Get over the whole Adam's thing. Since we dont draft 1st rounders...we trade for em. Proven ones and Adam's is that. It amazes me how some of you think 1st rounders equal great teams, when it takes a period of time to see if a 1st rounder is in fact a first rounder. By the way...you can be upset about picks as much as you want....but end of the day....jets had how many wins last year....how many will they have this year? Bet no more than last year. With our draft picks for the first round. We will easily be at least 10 and 6. Stop crying.
    jamescasey1124
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  • Fade wrote:2013 - No Pick
    2014 - No Pick
    2015 - No Pick
    2016 - Germain Ifedi
    2017 - No Pick
    2018 - Rashaad Penny
    2019 - LJ Collier
    2020 - Jordyn Brooks
    2021 - No Pick (Very Likely)
    2022 - No Pick (Likely, unless they trade a blue chip player.)

    WOW! Only 4 selections in the 1st round in a decade, bad picks to boot when they did pick. Brooks looks good but he is playing the RB position of the defense trapped behind Wagner.



    Holy Crap!

    https://old.reddit.com/r/Seahawks/comments/m6odc4/til_poona_ford_will_become_only_the_seahawks/

    Poona is only 4th player since 2013 to get a second contract from the Seahawks that they drafted/UDFA.

    Britt, Lockett, & Reed being the others.

    So in Rounds 2-7 & UDFA hasn't been that great either. I'm going to do a breakdown of other comparable teams when I have the time, but this is not good.


    And some are still under the impression that the FO is awesome and can do no wrong. Its mind boggling.
    pittpnthrs
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  • This is on par with the reporting that has been going on that Wilson is leaving for the Bears, Fins, Raiders and you make it.

    Nothing like a half story.

    How about putting who they got for giving up those picks like...

    Jamal Adams etc...
    seabowl
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  • Fade wrote: So in Rounds 2-7 hasn't been that great either.

    In 70 total picks from 2013-2019, I'd only consider these guys successful picks considering their production with the Seahawks for where they were selected in the draft:

    rd 2 Frank Clark
    rd 3 Tyler Lockett
    rd 2 DK Metcalf
    rd 7 Chris Carson
    rd 3 Shaquill Griffin
    rd 2 Justin Britt
    rd 2 Jarran Reed
    rd 4 Ugo Amadi
    rd 5 Michael Dickson
    rd 5 Quinton Jefferson
    rd 4 Will Dissly
    rd 5 Luke Willson
    rd 7 David Moore
    rd 6 Jacob Martin

    Not sure about Marquise Blair yet.

    Don't know if this is good or bad in comparison to other teams.
    massari
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  • massari wrote:
    Fade wrote: So in Rounds 2-7 hasn't been that great either.

    In 70 total picks from 2013-2019, I'd only consider these guys successful picks considering their production with the Seahawks for where they were selected in the draft:

    rd 2 Frank Clark
    rd 3 Tyler Lockett
    rd 2 DK Metcalf
    rd 7 Chris Carson
    rd 3 Shaquill Griffin
    rd 2 Justin Britt
    rd 2 Jarran Reed
    rd 4 Ugo Amadi
    rd 5 Michael Dickson
    rd 5 Quinton Jefferson
    rd 4 Will Dissly
    rd 5 Luke Willson
    rd 7 David Moore
    rd 6 Jacob Martin

    Not sure about Marquise Blair yet.

    Don't know if this is good or bad in comparison to other teams.


    That's a pretty fair assessment-about an average of 2 quality picks per draft.

    You have to take in account the various trades to fully evaluate but it appears 4 high quality players selected during that time (Clark, DK, Lockett, Carson) and several other starters/contributors. I'd be curious how this ranks against other teams as well.
    West TX Hawk
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  • massari wrote:
    Fade wrote: So in Rounds 2-7 hasn't been that great either.

    In 70 total picks from 2013-2019, I'd only consider these guys successful picks considering their production with the Seahawks for where they were selected in the draft:

    rd 2 Frank Clark
    rd 3 Tyler Lockett
    rd 2 DK Metcalf
    rd 7 Chris Carson
    rd 3 Shaquill Griffin
    rd 2 Justin Britt
    rd 2 Jarran Reed
    rd 4 Ugo Amadi
    rd 5 Michael Dickson
    rd 5 Quinton Jefferson
    rd 4 Will Dissly
    rd 5 Luke Willson
    rd 7 David Moore
    rd 6 Jacob Martin

    Not sure about Marquise Blair yet.

    Don't know if this is good or bad in comparison to other teams.


    That’s a 20% hit rate in draft picks. I would bet it’s not far off the league average for a 7 years span.
    oldhawkfan
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  • West TX Hawk wrote:
    massari wrote:
    Fade wrote: So in Rounds 2-7 hasn't been that great either.

    In 70 total picks from 2013-2019, I'd only consider these guys successful picks considering their production with the Seahawks for where they were selected in the draft:

    rd 2 Frank Clark
    rd 3 Tyler Lockett
    rd 2 DK Metcalf
    rd 7 Chris Carson
    rd 3 Shaquill Griffin
    rd 2 Justin Britt
    rd 2 Jarran Reed
    rd 4 Ugo Amadi
    rd 5 Michael Dickson
    rd 5 Quinton Jefferson
    rd 4 Will Dissly
    rd 5 Luke Willson
    rd 7 David Moore
    rd 6 Jacob Martin

    Not sure about Marquise Blair yet.

    Don't know if this is good or bad in comparison to other teams.


    That's a pretty fair assessment-about an average of 2 quality picks per draft.

    You have to take in account the various trades to fully evaluate but it appears 4 high quality players selected during that time (Clark, DK, Lockett, Carson) and several other starters/contributors. I'd be curious how this ranks against other teams as well.


    Pretty good, and 2020 looks to be pretty successful as well, overall. There have been some bad whiffs, but Seattle overall gets better-than-average return on worse-than-average draft capital.

    Here's a great write-up about it: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat- ... -2010-2019

    You'll be surprised to see that Seattle ranks above average on expected value returned from amount of draft capital they have, even if you sort by just the past 5 years to take out the insane LOB/Wilson drafts.

    I'm disappointed to see more draft analysis based on arbitrary ideas about acceptable draft hit rates that simply don't match up with the reality of the situation. Rounds 2-7 have actually been well beyond what can consistently be expected league-wide as far as acquiring contributors goes. Can't wait to see this future breakdown, though.
    Maelstrom787
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  • massari wrote:
    Fade wrote: So in Rounds 2-7 hasn't been that great either.

    In 70 total picks from 2013-2019, I'd only consider these guys successful picks considering their production with the Seahawks for where they were selected in the draft:

    rd 2 Frank Clark
    rd 3 Tyler Lockett
    rd 2 DK Metcalf
    rd 7 Chris Carson
    rd 3 Shaquill Griffin
    rd 2 Justin Britt
    rd 2 Jarran Reed
    rd 4 Ugo Amadi
    rd 5 Michael Dickson
    rd 5 Quinton Jefferson
    rd 4 Will Dissly
    rd 5 Luke Willson
    rd 7 David Moore
    rd 6 Jacob Martin

    Not sure about Marquise Blair yet.

    Don't know if this is good or bad in comparison to other teams.
    Last edited by lacenterhawk on Wed Mar 17, 2021 7:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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  • jamescasey1124 wrote:
    Cyrus12 wrote:and people wonder why we have to let other teams develop players so they can trade a ton for them. A very telling tale of what is going on.


    Let other teams develop them? Hmmm. Seems we dont have a choice if we arent using first rounders. You act like Adam's was the first time we did that. Let them develop. It's a better strategy then just drafting said analyst top 50 prospects. Which are always hit or miss. More miss than anything. Why not wait a year or two to see if that player pans out and then when you have a position of need bam take your shot to get em. Get over the whole Adam's thing. Since we dont draft 1st rounders...we trade for em. Proven ones and Adam's is that. It amazes me how some of you think 1st rounders equal great teams, when it takes a period of time to see if a 1st rounder is in fact a first rounder. By the way...you can be upset about picks as much as you want....but end of the day....jets had how many wins last year....how many will they have this year? Bet no more than last year. With our draft picks for the first round. We will easily be at least 10 and 6. Stop crying.

    Yep trade for them when they want insane contracts or leave after one year, then have nothing left in either cap or picks and fill holes with bums. Aka the oline and dline. Yes I know they've done this before and it mostly has backfired. Take the blue goggles off...superman.
    Cyrus12
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  • Anyway, these late firsts Fade's trying to rile people up about? They're not worthless, but a team sure can get on without them. They're basically a lottery ticket with a 48% chance you'll get an above average starter out of it, and less than a 15% chance of getting a pro bowler. How I got those percentages is quoted below:

    Maelstrom787 wrote:]For a more complete data set, we'll evaluate drafts from 2015 through 2019. Seattle (at least, their native pick) has been solidly in the back half of the first round in each draft being evaluated, so let's analyze picks 17 through 32 to see what your true likelihood of drafting a pro bowler is from those slots, based on the players that were actually selected in said slots.

    From 2015 through 2019, there have been 79 selections made in the back half (Picks 17 through 32) of round 1. One of those selections was vacated by Belicheat for deflating balls.

    Out of those 79 selections, 11 have gone to a Pro Bowl. I was even generous and added on Landon Collins, who went pick #33. Using your Pro Bowl qualifier for hitting on a first rounder (in back half of first, where Seattle picks), that gives us a league wide hit rate of.... 13.92%. For a positional breakdown of the aforementioned pro bowlers, plus Collins:

    3 CB (B. Jones, T. White, M. Peters)
    3 S (K. Neal, D. James, L. Collins*)
    1 C (Ryan Kelly)
    1 DT (Kenny Clark)
    1 LB (LVE)
    1 Edge rusher (Watt)
    1 QB (Jackson)

    Now, let's look at how many of these players were available at Seattle's native pick, meaning no trade up required, again, including Collins, not including Jackson because quarterback would be idiotic position for Seattle to pick early:

    2015 - Collins (pick traded away for Graham)
    2016 - Kenny Clark
    2017 - T. White, Watt
    2018 - LVE
    2019 - None. No Pro Bowlers yet from 17 until the literal end of the draft, except Mecole Hardman. This'll change, obviously... with DK Metcalf, the Seahawks pick at 64.

    That's 6. So 6 out of the 10 (technically 9, but again... adding Landon Collins) non-QB Pro Bowlers in the back half of the first round were available to Seattle without a trade up. Over 5 drafts.


    Maelstrom787 wrote:Now, to make sure I'm being very thorough regarding the first round, let's analyze every single pick made from 17-32 in the 2015 through 2018 drafts to see how many of these guys end up being good starters, even if they haven't made a Pro Bowl. We'll chalk the non-good starters up in a bust column. I'm not including 2019 or 2020 because it's simply too soon to tell, and it'd be way too much of a projection to assign a label to them just yet.



    2015:

    17. Arik Armstead. Very good.
    18. Marcus Peters. Good, Pro Bowler.
    19. Cameron Erving. Bust.
    20. Nelson Agholor. Career negative DYAR per Football Outsiders. Replacement level. Bust.
    21. Cedric Ogbuehi. Has been terrible, is now a Seahawks backup. Bust.
    22. Bud Dupree. Hit.
    23. Shane Ray. 1 alright year, currently unemployed. Bust.
    24. DJ Humphries. We're gonna call him a hit. His play has been bad at times, but quite good at others, including currently.
    25. Shaq Thompson. We'll call him a hit. Decent starter. His best ball is behind him, but I'll be generous.
    26. Breshad Perriman. Bust.
    27. Bryon Jones. Good, Pro Bowler.
    28. Laken Tomlinson. Bust.
    29. Phillip Dorsett. Bust, on Seahawks.
    30. Damarious Randall. Bust, on Seahawks.
    31. Stephone Anthony. Bust. Unemployed.
    32. Malcom Brown. We'll call him a hit. Decent starter.

    Out of these 16, 9 were busts. Bust rate of 56.25%.


    2016:

    17. Keanu Neal. Hit. Probowl.
    18. Ryan Kelly. Hit. Probowl.
    19. Shaq Lawson. Average. Not a full bust, but not a good starter, so bust column.
    20. Darron Lee. Holy bust.
    21. Will Fuller. I'll very generously include him, considering he's been injured for nearly half his games. Career +DYAR.
    22. Josh Doctson. B-b-b-BUST.
    23. Laquon Treadwell. Bust city.
    24. William Jackson. Hit.
    25. Artie Burns. Bust.
    26. Paxton Lynch. Bust.
    27. Kenny Clark. Probowl.
    28. Joshua Garnett. Bust.
    29. Voided due to Belicheat's flat balls.
    30. Vernon Butler. Replacement level. Not including as a good starter. Bust.
    31. Germain Ifedi. We were definitely too hard on him, but we'll chalk him in the bust column. Bust.
    32. Emmanuel Ogbah. We'll chalk him as a hit. Not a franchise rusher, but a decent enough starter.

    Out of these 15, 8 are replacement level or complete busts. 53.33% bust rate.


    2017:

    17. Jonathan Allen. Good starter. Hit.
    18. Adoree Jackson. Sure, hit.
    19. OJ Howard. I mean... he's plus DYAR, but injured a lot. We'll err on the side of hit.
    20. Garrett Bolles. He gets a lot of hate, but I'm considering him a hit, even disregarding his improved 2020 play. But he's had a good few hiccups.
    21. Jarrad Davis. He's playing better this year, but has been bad for every other year. Bust.
    22. Charles Harris. Bust.
    23. Evan Engram. He gets volume, but +8 DYAR for career? Nah, bust column. Not a "good" starter, just a starter.
    24. Gareon Conley. Average. Bust column, not a good starter.
    25. Jabrill Peppers. Let's call him a hit. Rough rookie season, good since.
    26. Takk McKinley. He's right on the line. I'm gonna err bust. Fifth year decline, sacks numbers tailed off after 2 alright starting years in the league.
    27. Tre'Davious White. Probowl.
    28. Taco Charlton. Bust.
    29. David Njoku. Bust. Injuries have hurt him, and he was no better than Engram to begin with.
    30. TJ Watt. Hit. Probowl.
    31. Reuben Foster. Obviously good, but bust due to off-field career sabotage and then injury. Bust.
    32. Ryan Ramczyk. Hit.

    Out of these 16, 8 are replacement level or complete busts. 50% bust rate. Not as many outright busts this year.


    2018:

    17. Derwin James. Probowl.
    18. Jaire Alexander. Hit.
    19. Leighton Vander Esch. Probowl.
    20. Frank Ragnow. Hit.
    21. Billy Price. Bust.
    22. Rashaan Evans. Replacement level bust.
    23. Isaiah Wynn. Injured for most games. Bust.
    24. DJ Moore. Hit.
    25. Hayden Hurst. Bust.. but playing a bit better this year. Still not "good" starter.
    26. Calvin Ridley. Hit.
    27. Rashaad Penny. Talented, but bust.
    28. Terrell Edmunds. Replacement level. Bust.
    29. Taven Bryan. Bust.
    30. Mike Hughes. On the bust side.
    31. Sony Michel. We'll call him a hit.
    32. Lamar Jackson. Probowl.

    Out of these 16, 8 are replacement level or busts so far in their short careers. 50% bust rate.



    Now, lets dig into this. We can see that the bust rate hovers around 50% at the backend of the first, fairly consistently, too.

    So, let's start by editing the demonstrably inflated criteria for back-of-first-round success to just landing a good starter instead of a Pro Bowler. In these 4 drafts, the most recent drafts within which we can somewhat-comfortably assign a value/label to a player, 63 players were picked in the back end of the first round. 30 players were good enough to be assigned the label of being an above average starter.

    That's a 47.6% chance of landing a good starter in the back of the first round. Less than a coin flips chance. With the pie-in-the-sky "SOP" of expecting a Pro Bowler from a first round pick, ignoring the context of these picks being LATE first rounders, you, the FANS are setting yourselves up for disappointment by misinforming yourself about the caliber of talent that's generally available. Stars do not grow on trees. The chances of getting a Pro Bowler, even with Seattle's HIGHEST pick, are very slim. Even expecting a GOOD starter from these late first rounders is slightly less than even odds.
    Maelstrom787
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  • Really like the above article, but the comments afterward are also insightful. I think the Seahawks "swing for the fences" on every draft pick, every year. I think that negatively impacts high draft picks and positively impacts lower picks.

    I think of it as follows: If a player expected to get picked in round 6 but gets picked in round 2 by the Seahawks, might they feel like they have "less to prove?" Alternately, if a player is picked in the lower rounds, perhaps they didn't expect to be picked at all or thought they'd go higher. Either way, that player was picked after the majority of players they'll face each week and might be more motivated. Of course, this is a generalization and there are lots of exceptions.

    However, I think the above explanation tends to be accurate and aligns with what we all know about human nature. It also tends to explain the Seahawks' draft history. There tend to be more/good players coming from lower rounds than one might expect. There also tend to be more picks by this FO for Best Player Available as opposed to specific needs as well. That also means there tends to be positions where year-after-year there are needs.

    In addition, draft analysis always focuses on a player's physical ability with "soft skills" as an afterthought. Coachability, Motivation, Teamwork, Attitude, Competition... tend to take a backseat to 40 time. Agreed, a 40 time is easier to quantitatively measure. Also agreed that the Wonderlic has been a dubious attempt to address this issue, albeit for one position. I don't think personality tests, like the Wonderlic, work consistently. People just answer questions how they think they should so they end up showing false results. They're really popular because it's very appealing to be able to quantify a person's soft-skills. But that can't be done by a test. However, I think there will come a time when NFL Teams invest more heavily in staff that specialize in interviewing and assessing a player's non-physical attributes. That as opposed to current scouting staff that primarily look at gametape. Teams have a dozen on their scouting staff and maybe one person they bring in as a consultant for draft interviews. Since the draft is almost random, if that investment is only slightly beneficial, over time it turns a team's draft from failure to success.

    I point all that out from the perspective of being a headhunter for the past 25 years. You can talk to a person and their acquaintances/peers and gain the insight needed to predict how they'll react in the future. Again (and obviously) there are lots of exceptions. However, we're just talking about a difference of a few percentage points over decades making a huge difference.
    chrispy
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  • Remember when we used to think we had the best FO in the league in those early PC/JS days?

    Feels like an eternity ago.
    pinksheets
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  • chrispy wrote:Really like the above article, but the comments afterward are also insightful. I think the Seahawks "swing for the fences" on every draft pick, every year. I think that negatively impacts high draft picks and positively impacts lower picks.

    I think of it as follows: If a player expected to get picked in round 6 but gets picked in round 2 by the Seahawks, might they feel like they have "less to prove?" Alternately, if a player is picked in the lower rounds, perhaps they didn't expect to be picked at all or thought they'd go higher. Either way, that player was picked after the majority of players they'll face each week and might be more motivated. Of course, this is a generalization and there are lots of exceptions.

    However, I think the above explanation tends to be accurate and aligns with what we all know about human nature. It also tends to explain the Seahawks' draft history. There tend to be more/good players coming from lower rounds than one might expect. There also tend to be more picks by this FO for Best Player Available as opposed to specific needs as well. That also means there tends to be positions where year-after-year there are needs.

    In addition, draft analysis always focuses on a player's physical ability with "soft skills" as an afterthought. Coachability, Motivation, Teamwork, Attitude, Competition... tend to take a backseat to 40 time. Agreed, a 40 time is easier to quantitatively measure. Also agreed that the Wonderlic has been a dubious attempt to address this issue, albeit for one position. I don't think personality tests, like the Wonderlic, work consistently. People just answer questions how they think they should so they end up showing false results. They're really popular because it's very appealing to be able to quantify a person's soft-skills. But that can't be done by a test. However, I think there will come a time when NFL Teams invest more heavily in staff that specialize in interviewing and assessing a player's non-physical attributes. That as opposed to current scouting staff that primarily look at gametape. Teams have a dozen on their scouting staff and maybe one person they bring in as a consultant for draft interviews. Since the draft is almost random, if that investment is only slightly beneficial, over time it turns a team's draft from failure to success.

    I point all that out from the perspective of being a headhunter for the past 25 years. You can talk to a person and their acquaintances/peers and gain the insight needed to predict how they'll react in the future. Again (and obviously) there are lots of exceptions. However, we're just talking about a difference of a few percentage points over decades making a huge difference.


    Thanks for sharing. I once considered life as a head hunter. I sometimes think it might have afforded me a better vantage point from which to understand human nature. I bet it's enriched your life.

    Appreciated and enjoyed Maelstrom787's link to Benjamin Ellinger's work >>> https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/nfl-drafting-efficiency-2010-2019

    And, follow up post.

    Thoughtful posts.
    Jville
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  • What would be interesting is to look back at drafts at what the order would be in a redraft vs other teams.

    How many picks in other rounds would be 1st rounders vs other teams in the same circumstance?

    Imagine we would have a bit of an advantage vs most teams.

    Our draft strategy is sound for building talent. As pointed out with the failure rate, if you are drafting for upside then a 1st round pick with a 30-50% fail rate makes little sense. What makes more sense is more spins of the wheel. So maximize the # of picks with the tradeoff being loss of talent in the pool for each slot lost.

    Even in lower rounds with a 70-80% fail rate, your chances of success rocket up with multiple picks.

    This strategy maximizes the ability to bring in talent and hit on a pick. Problem? You don't get to pick where the hit comes from. So you cannot fill holes. And because you never build your process to get the best chance of success on the picks you need when you need them (ie when you do keep your first and use it), you probably hit at a lower rate.

    That shows in our #s and the eye test.

    We get the stud RB like Carson in the 7th or stud WR in the 2nd, almost reliably. But when we lose someone in FA or a trade, we are left with a gaping hole that takes years to patch...if we ever even succeed at it.

    What we end up with are teams with tremendous potential that can never quite round themselves out. And then, because we don't need the 1sts and our process does not really depend on them, we trade them more often.

    It isn't necessarily a bad strategy. It is great to get a team almost there. But to get to the next stage you have to be able to fill the holes and it is terrible for that.
    TwistedHusky
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  • I used to post a comparative analysis weighted by investment in the off-season with similar results as the linked article but have rethought the usefulness of that.

    Judging by individual player misses the forest for the trees in the NFL where teams build rosters based on position groups. Consider if a team brings six players into camp to compete for three spots - are they guaranteeing themselves three hits and three misses? What really matters is how strong the position is that year and not where those players originally came from.

    Positional strength weighted by investment is a better measurement of a front office than individual pick grades. Having the 15th best OL can be a good thing if we spent the 20th most resources on it, or a bad thing if we spent the 10th most resources on it. Resources spent include draft selections, draft picks in trade, contract dollars and even time invested in player development.

    If we do have to judge based on player grades then it's also important to have reasonable expectations based on draft position. Fourth round picks KPL, Marsh and Glow each played in 80-90 games in the NFL. That's excellent for their draft position but you won't see them listed as a good pick in a casual analysis because they didn't become key starters here.
    AgentDib
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  • When you are paying a QB and second contracts for starters you have to hit more on depth guys and UDFA's to keep up, we have our Poonas and Carsons and throw in DK and Lockett, but we do a lot of swing and miss for depth and trade picks for needs many times mid season which is saying desperation to teams that are not in contention and want picks or salary relief.
    chris98251
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  • seabowl wrote:This is on par with the reporting that has been going on that Wilson is leaving for the Bears, Fins, Raiders and you make it.

    Nothing like a half story.

    How about putting who they got for giving up those picks like...

    Jamal Adams etc...

    It's actually worse if I add the players they traded for. I'm not trying to pile on here. :shock:

    I'm going to do a deep dive on NE, GB, DAL, LAR, PIT, & BAL, and see what's what. I have no preconceived notions, I'm just curious what it looks like for other teams that win consistently with DAL thrown in. :D
    Fade
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  • Fade wrote:2013 - No Pick
    2014 - No Pick
    2015 - No Pick
    2016 - Germain Ifedi
    2017 - No Pick
    2018 - Rashaad Penny
    2019 - LJ Collier
    2020 - Jordyn Brooks
    2021 - No Pick (Very Likely)
    2022 - No Pick (Likely, unless they trade a blue chip player.)

    WOW! Only 4 selections in the 1st round in a decade, bad picks to boot when they did pick. Brooks looks good but he is playing the RB position of the defense trapped behind Wagner.



    Holy Crap!

    https://old.reddit.com/r/Seahawks/comments/m6odc4/til_poona_ford_will_become_only_the_seahawks/

    Poona is only 4th player since 2013 to get a second contract from the Seahawks that they drafted/UDFA.

    Britt, Lockett, & Reed being the others.

    So in Rounds 2-7 & UDFA hasn't been that great either. I'm going to do a breakdown of other comparable teams when I have the time, but this is not good.

    Normative analysis aside, this does not tell us what you are implying. Say what you want about Ifedi; he's been a starter for 5 straight years. That's a good pick, relatively speaking. Collier and Brooks are currently starters for us, leaving Penny as the one "bad" pick. Since all three of their careers are still in their relative infancy, it's hard to draw any meaningful conclusions about their value. Unless, of course, you rely exclusively on normative analysis. In which case you could make whatever case you want.

    The contract extension thing is also a fairly meaningless indicator. We've had several guys, Shaq being the most recent, who've left the team for bigger paydays. So should we ignore all of the guys who've gone on to have success with other teams and assume they weren't good draft picks?

    Furthermore, if you wanted to do a fair analysis, you'd have to compare Seattle with teams who've had a similar average draft position since 2013. Doing so narrows your list of teams down to KC and NE. Just taking a cursory glance, NE has been a disaster, and KC only has 2 1st round picks remaining since 2013.
    knownone
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  • knownone wrote:
    Fade wrote:2013 - No Pick
    2014 - No Pick
    2015 - No Pick
    2016 - Germain Ifedi
    2017 - No Pick
    2018 - Rashaad Penny
    2019 - LJ Collier
    2020 - Jordyn Brooks
    2021 - No Pick (Very Likely)
    2022 - No Pick (Likely, unless they trade a blue chip player.)

    WOW! Only 4 selections in the 1st round in a decade, bad picks to boot when they did pick. Brooks looks good but he is playing the RB position of the defense trapped behind Wagner.



    Holy Crap!

    https://old.reddit.com/r/Seahawks/comments/m6odc4/til_poona_ford_will_become_only_the_seahawks/

    Poona is only 4th player since 2013 to get a second contract from the Seahawks that they drafted/UDFA.

    Britt, Lockett, & Reed being the others.

    So in Rounds 2-7 & UDFA hasn't been that great either. I'm going to do a breakdown of other comparable teams when I have the time, but this is not good.

    Normative analysis aside, this does not tell us what you are implying. Say what you want about Ifedi; he's been a starter for 5 straight years. That's a good pick, relatively speaking. Collier and Brooks are currently starters for us, leaving Penny as the one "bad" pick. Since all three of their careers are still in their relative infancy, it's hard to draw any meaningful conclusions about their value. Unless, of course, you rely exclusively on normative analysis. In which case you could make whatever case you want.

    The contract extension thing is also a fairly meaningless indicator. We've had several guys, Shaq being the most recent, who've left the team for bigger paydays. So should we ignore all of the guys who've gone on to have success with other teams and assume they weren't good draft picks?

    Furthermore, if you wanted to do a fair analysis, you'd have to compare Seattle with teams who've had a similar average draft position since 2013. Doing so narrows your list of teams down to KC and NE. Just taking a cursory glance, NE has been a disaster, and KC only has 2 1st round picks remaining since 2013.


    KC & NO added.

    I'll be breaking down how every 1st round asset was spent, what they did with their remaining picks, and how many of their players drafted/UDFA were retained. The core of every football team.

    An interesting element here is Seattle used to extend their guys with 1 year remaining, but due to how Seattle structures contracts, more and more of their guys are choosing to play out their contracts and hit free agency.

    This will be an interesting study for sure. I will post my findings in the OP in a couple of days.
    Fade
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  • Cyrus12 wrote:
    jamescasey1124 wrote:
    Cyrus12 wrote:and people wonder why we have to let other teams develop players so they can trade a ton for them. A very telling tale of what is going on.


    Let other teams develop them? Hmmm. Seems we dont have a choice if we arent using first rounders. You act like Adam's was the first time we did that. Let them develop. It's a better strategy then just drafting said analyst top 50 prospects. Which are always hit or miss. More miss than anything. Why not wait a year or two to see if that player pans out and then when you have a position of need bam take your shot to get em. Get over the whole Adam's thing. Since we dont draft 1st rounders...we trade for em. Proven ones and Adam's is that. It amazes me how some of you think 1st rounders equal great teams, when it takes a period of time to see if a 1st rounder is in fact a first rounder. By the way...you can be upset about picks as much as you want....but end of the day....jets had how many wins last year....how many will they have this year? Bet no more than last year. With our draft picks for the first round. We will easily be at least 10 and 6. Stop crying.

    Yep trade for them when they want insane contracts or leave after one year, then have nothing left in either cap or picks and fill holes with bums. Aka the oline and dline. Yes I know they've done this before and it mostly has backfired. Take the blue goggles off...superman.


    You mean backfired like we didnt win 12 games or Adam's is up and off the team? Hmmm...dont seem like backfires to me. Specially since Adam's will get resigned. Graham was more than one year and we were mildly successful. Not backfired. Percy was a one year rental only because he was a head case. We made two superbowls though. Hard to see the backfires here with the success that has followed.

    Blue goggles? Superman. Sure. Thanks.
    jamescasey1124
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  • This is not good at all i've watched all those drafts . There was plenty of talent available in all of them the Seahawks consistently traded down and got nothing but guys like Pocic. Passing on guys like Fletcher Cox and Roquan Smith those are just 2 of the many players they have passed on to trade down for some league average or below player that didn't see a second contract.

    They have NOT done well enough in the draft . This is why were in the current state that were in. It has caught up to us and now we have many holes to fill and not enough picks to fill them . We have average talent across the board with a few exceptions. Wilson Carson and Metcalf. Wagner is still good but not what i would call dominate in any way same with KJ . Adams is great but one dimensional

    So if your trying to tell me weve done well in the draft the last 7 years i'm not buying it because we haven't . Weve done just enough to stay relevant but not enough to compete for a Championship. We haven't been close to a SB in years that's a fact. We won't get near one this season either we won't win the division and we'll be lucky to win ten games and get a wildcard. You want to drink the kool-aid that's fine i'm a fan of the Seahawks to but stop making excuses for mediocrity. We need to start holding Pete and John accountable and stop making excuses for there poor drafting and trade decisions that have not worked. Yes with a franchise QB like Wilson we should have at least seen an NFC Championship game by now that's how i define mediocrity and that's why Russ wants out.
    Northwest Seahawk
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  • I've only just dipped my toe (2013).

    Check the OP.

    TOTALS:
    1st GB = 16 pts
    2nd BAL = 13 pts
    3rd KC = 12 pts
    3rd NE = 12 pts
    5th PIT = 11 pts
    6th NO = 7 pts
    7th DAL = 5 pts
    8th RAM = 2 pts
    9th SEA = -7 pts

    I will post 2014 NEXT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Fade
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  • This thread paints a bleaker position than reality as the players or picks the various 1st round picks were traded for are not included. The picture isn't great regardless.

    I'm not saying the team has remotes done close to a good job at all with their 1st round picks over the last ten years but without even mentioning the players traded for the picture looks worse than reality. To me I have never been a huge fan of trading a late 1st round pick for an expensive FA as statistically FA acquisitions fail to succeed on their new teams, and then their big contracts become dead weight on the cap.

    Sometimes the whole go big or go home deal doesn't work out for the team rolling the dice.
    jammerhawk
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  • //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
    *UPDATE*
    /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

    I'm doing a deep dive on the top 8 teams or thereabouts over the last 8 years + the Cowboys. :D
    Looking at 1st round asset allocation firstly, the rest of their draft secondarily, and overall retention thirdly.

    * If a team moved on from a guy (multi-year) and they succeed it will be classified as an "L."

    * If a team re-signed a guy (multi-year) and they flopped it will be classified as an "L."

    * If a team re-signed a guy (multi-year) and they succeed it will be classified as a "W."

    * If a team moved on from a guy (multi-year) and they flopped it will be classified as a "W."

    * The Bust label is applicable to 1st selection only, and ignored afterwards to avoid semantics. Unless the team in question has multiple 1st round picks, then all 1st rounders will be counted.

    * 1st selections will be classified as busts who do not get big multi-year 2nd contracts with few exceptions, if any.

    * 2nd selection and beyond, I am focusing on just the "Hits" (bigger multi-year contracts).

    * 5 Designations in total: Hit, W, Retained, Bust, and L.

    * SCORING SYSTEM:
    +3 points for a Hit;
    +2 points for Retained;
    +1 point for a W;
    Negative 1 point for an L;
    Negative 3 points for a 1st Selection Bust;
    Negative 3 points for Poor 1st rd Asset usage (Bad Trade).


    Second up is the 2014 NFL Draft.

    BALTIMORE RAVENS 2014
    ------
    1st / 17 - C. J. Mosley(LB) [HIT][W] / 4x 2nd Team All-Pro, 5ys $85M w/NYJ.
    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    048 - DL - Timmy Jernigan [W] / 4yrs $48M w/Philadelphia.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Baltimore knocked their 1st selection out of the park, and then wisely did not re-sign him, Mosley has done nothing with the Jets. Jernigan a similar story, they traded him to Philly and was never the same, dodging the bullet of paying him big money.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    2 Hits; 2 W's = 8 points.


    DALLAS COWBOYS 2014
    ------
    1st / 16 - Zach Martin (G ) [HIT][W] - 4x 1st Team All-Pro; 2x 2nd Team All-Pro - 6 yrs 84M w/Dallas

    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    034 - Edge - DeMarcus Lawrence [L] / 2x Pro Bowl; 5 yrs $105M w/Dallas.
    119 - LB - Anthony Hitchens [L] 4yr $45M w/KC recording 135 tackles in first year with the Chiefs.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Dallas hit on another stud O-Lineman in back 2 back years picking the surefire HoFer Zach Martin @ 16. Lawrence was a hit early in his career, but quickly became a dud once he got paid, L. Dallas paid the wrong LBers so they had to let Hitchens walk, L.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    3 Hits; 1 W; 2 Retained; 2 L's = 12 points.


    GREEN BAY PACKERS 2014
    ------
    1st / 21 - Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (S) [HIT] 2nd Team All-Pro; 16 Career INTs.
    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    053 - WR - Davante Adams [W] / 1st Team All-Pro; 4yrs $58M w/GB.
    161 - C - Corey Linsley [W] - 1st Team All-Pro; 3 yrs 25.5M w/GB + 5 yrs $62.5M w/LAC.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Green Bay killed it again, hitting on 3 All-Pros. Didn't pay Ha Ha, but he never got the big contract so they don't get an L for moving on from him. They re-signed both Adams and Linsley at bargain prices, Linsley recently broke the bank with the Chargers, it remains to be seen if it was worth it on not, but based on GB's history with offensive lineman it was probably the right choice for them. The scoring system is only looking at the 2nd contract or first big pay day, anyway.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    3 Hits; 2 W's; 2 Retained = 15 points.


    KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 2014
    ------
    1st / 23 - Dee Ford (EDGE) [HIT][W] - 1x Pro Bowl - 5 yrs $87.5M w/SF.
    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    193 - G - Zach Fulton [W] / 4 yrs $28M w/Houston.
    200 - G - Laurent Duvernay-Tardif [W] 5 yrs $42.36M w/KC.
    UDFA - DB - Daniel Sorensen [W] 4 yrs $16M w/KC. Swiss Army Knife Extraordinaire, 10 career INTs.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    KC hit on Dee Ford, and then flipped him for a 2nd round pick when it was contract time, leaving SF to foot the bill. Zach Fulton was overpaid by the Texans so they get a W for letting him walk. Laurent Duvernay-Tardif was one of the steals of the draft that year and KC smartly kept him on board, W. KC found a gem in UDFA, Daniel Sorensen, who can start at both Corner and Safety, and contribute on Special Teams.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    4 Hits; 4 W's; 2 Retained = 20 points


    NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 2014
    ------
    1st / 29 - Dominique Easley (DL) [BUST]

    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    062 - QB - Jimmy Garoppolo [W] / 5 yrs $137.5M w/San Fransisco.
    130 - RB - James White [W] / 3 yrs $12M w/NE; Patriots All-Decade Team. 3x Super Bowl Champion.
    UDFA - CB - Malcolm Butler - 2nd Team All-Pro - 5yrs $65M w/Tennessee.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    NE hit on a nice starter in Jimmy G, but wisely flipped him for a 2nd rounder, leaving SF to overpay him. James White was instrumental in the Patriots success, and BB found a way to keep him for cheap. Malcolm Butler leaving for Tenn is a draw for me. He never quite had the success he had in New England, but he wasn't a total bust with Tenn either.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    3 Hits; 2 W's; 1 Retained; 1 Bust = 10 points


    NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 2014
    ------
    1st / 20 - Brandin Cooks (WR) [HIT][W] 5 yrs $85M w/The Rams.

    *New Orleans moved up from 27 surrendering the 91st pick.

    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    UDFA - LB - Todd Davis [L] / 3 yrs $15M w/Denver.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Kind of underwhelming for the Saints this year. They moved up and grabbed Brandin Cooks who was productive for 3 seasons then moved him for a 1st round pick (who would later turn into Ryan Ramczyk). Avoiding paying him massive money that the Rams probably still regret. New Orleans also found a productive 4 year starter in UDFA, but unfortuneatly it was with Denver, L.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    2 Hits; 1 W; 1 L = 6 points


    PITTSBURGH STEELERS 2014
    ------
    1st / 15 - Ryan Shazier (LB) [HIT] 2x Pro Bowl

    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    046 - DL - Stephon Tuitt [W] / 5 yrs $60M w/Pittsburgh.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ryan Shazier was a star linebacker for Pittsburgh, but suffered a severe spinal injury during the end of his rookie contract and never played again. Stephon Tuitt has been a rock solid starter since being drafted in 2014.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    2 Hits; 1 W; 1 Retained = 9 points


    SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 2014
    ------
    2nd /45 - Paul Richardson (1st Selection) (WR) [BUST][W] / 5 yrs $40M w/Washington.

    *Seattle traded down from 32 picking up 108.

    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    064 - OL - Justin Britt [W] / 3 yrs $27M w/Seattle

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Paul Richardson was consistently injured with Seattle only compiling 8 TDs in 4 seasons. He found a way to stay healthy in his contract year though. Seattle wisely didn't pay him so they get a W. Justin Britt started out very poorly, but by the end of his rookie contract he settled in as a solid starter, earning a nice 2nd contract. Not much of a draft overall, but a big improvement over the disaster that was their 2013 Draft.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    1 Hit; 2 W's; 1 Retained; 1 Bust = 4 points


    THE RAMS (LA/ST. LOUIS) 2014
    ------
    1st / 13 - Aaron Donald (DL) [HIT][W] / 6x 1st Team All-Pro; 6 yrs $135M w/The Rams.

    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    041 - S - Lamarcus Joyner [W] / 4 yrs $42M w/The Raiders.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    The Rams only drafted the best Non-QB player of the decade. Not a big deal. Lamarcus Joyner was a solid starter for the Rams and was Franchise Tagged. But when it came time to pay they smartly let him walk as he did nothing with the Raiders.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    2 Hits; 2 W's; 1 Retained = 10 points


    TOTALS THROUGH THE 2013 & 2014 NFL DRAFTS:
    1st KC = 32 pts
    2nd GB = 31 pts
    3rd NE = 22 pts
    4th BAL = 21 pts
    5th PIT = 20 pts
    6th DAL = 17 pts
    7th NO = 13 pts
    8th RAM = 12 pts
    9th SEA = -3 pts

    A couple of patterns I'm noticing here early. Teams are generally really smart in knowing who to pay, and not to pay on their own teams. Free Agency is extremely dangerous, they're available for a reason. And the other is most teams just stand pat and pick in the 1st round, they don't get cute and try to wheel and deal a bunch of trades.

    I will do 2015 NEXT!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Fade
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  • //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
    *UPDATE*
    /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

    I'm doing a deep dive on the top 8 teams or thereabouts over the last 8 years + the Cowboys. :D
    Looking at 1st round asset allocation firstly, the rest of their draft secondarily, and overall retention thirdly.

    * If a team moved on from a guy (multi-year) and they succeed it will be classified as an "L."

    * If a team re-signed a guy (multi-year) and they flopped it will be classified as an "L."

    * If a team re-signed a guy (multi-year) and they succeed it will be classified as a "W."

    * If a team moved on from a guy (multi-year) and they flopped it will be classified as a "W."

    * The Bust label is applicable to 1st selection only, and ignored afterwards to avoid semantics. Unless the team in question has multiple 1st round picks, then all 1st rounders will be counted.

    * 1st selections will be classified as busts who do not get big multi-year 2nd contracts with few exceptions, if any.

    * 2nd selection and beyond, I am focusing on just the "Hits" (bigger multi-year contracts).

    * 5 Designations in total: Hit, W, Retained, Bust, and L.

    * SCORING SYSTEM:
    +3 points for a Hit;
    +2 points for Retained;
    +1 point for a W;
    Negative 1 point for an L;
    Negative 3 points for a 1st Selection Bust;
    Negative 3 points for Poor 1st rd Asset usage (Bad Trade).


    Third up is the 2015 NFL Draft.

    BALTIMORE RAVENS 2015
    ------
    1st / 26 - Breshad Perriman (WR) [BUST]
    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    122 - EDGE - Za'Darius Smith [L] / 2nd Team All-Pro; 4 years $66M w/Green Bay.
    204 - TE - Darren Waller [L] / Pro Bowl with the Raiders.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Baltimore unearthed a couple of studs outside of the top 100 picks, but they didn't keep them, allowing the Packers and Raiders to reap the rewards.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    2 Hits; 2 L's; 1 Bust = 1 point.


    DALLAS COWBOYS 2015
    ------
    1st / 27 - Byron Jones (CB ) [HIT][W] - 2nd Team All-Pro - 5 yrs $82M w/Miami.

    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    UDFA - OT - La'el Collins [W] 5 yrs $50M w/Cowboys.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Dallas took advantage of the situation with Collins, who had a wild rumor spread just before draft day so he went undrafted and got to pick his team as an UDFA. A 1st round talent going into the 2015 NFL Draft, he chose to sign with the Cowboys. Which added to their already ridiculous Offensive Line. Byron Jones flashed as a young corner with Dallas, and they dodged a bullet imo as Byron Jones isn't worth that kind of money, W.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    2 Hits; 2 W's; 1 Retained = 10 points.


    GREEN BAY PACKERS 2015
    ------
    1st / 30 - Damarious Randall (DB) [BUST]
    ------
    Other Notable Selections: None

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Green Bay had a bad 2015 Draft picking a bunch of journeymen and career backups.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    0 Hits; 1 Bust = Negative 3 points.


    KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 2015
    ------
    1st / 18 - Marcus Peters (CB) [HIT][L] - 2x 1st Team All-Pro - 3 yrs $42.5 w/Baltimore.
    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    049 - C - Mitch Morse [W] / 4 yrs $44.5M w/Buffalo.
    098 - CB - Steve Nelson [W] / 3 yrs $25.5M w/Pittsburgh.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    KC with another great draft, they moved off of all 3 players eventually, but Morse and Nelson were massively overpayed, Marcus Peters is crazy, but he has performed well since leaving KC so I have to give them an L for that one.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    3 Hits; 2 W's; 1 L = 10 points


    NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 2015
    ------
    1st / 32 - Malcom Brown (NT) [HIT][L] 3 yrs $15M w/Saints + 2 yrs $11M with/Jaguars.

    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    101 - EDGE - Trey Flowers [W] / 5 yrs $90M w/Detroit.
    131 - G - Shaq Mason [W] / 5 yrs $50M w/New England.
    UDFA - C - David Andrews [W] / 3 yrs $12.3M + 4 yrs ??? w/New England.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    New England quietly had a great draft adding 4 more quality starters to their team, that would lead to them winning 2 more Superbowls. They should've kept Malcom Brown, but wisely let Detroit blow $90M on Trey Flowers.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    4 Hits; 3 W's; 2 Retained; 1 L = 18 points


    NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 2015
    ------
    1st / 13 - Andrus Peat (OL) [HIT][W] 5 yrs $57.5M w/New Orleans.

    1st / 31 - Stephone Anthony [BUST] + Max Unger [HIT][W] / 3 yrs $22.2M w/New Orleans.

    ------
    Other Notable Selections: None

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    New Orleans bolstered the interior of their O-Line hitting on Andrus Peat who still continues to be a staple of their O-Line to this day. Moving Graham for Unger ended up being huge for New Orleans as Unger only missed 1 game in the 4 years he started for them. Stephone Anthony wound up being a bust, but New Orleans got the better end of the trade in total.

    -------------
    2 Hits; 2 W's; 1 Bust = 5 points


    PITTSBURGH STEELERS 2015
    ------
    1st / 22 - Bud Dupree (EDGE) [HIT][W] 5 yrs $82.5M w/Tennessee.

    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    160 - TE - Jesse James [W] / 4 yrs $22.6M w/Detroit.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    A meh draft, but at least they didn't overpay for these 2 players.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    2 Hits; 2 W's = 8 points


    SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 2015
    ------
    1st / 31 - Jimmy Graham (TE) [HIT] but cost Unger [L] in the process [BAD TRADE].

    2nd / 63 - Frank Clark (1st Selection) (EDGE) [HIT][L] / 2x Pro Bowl w/Chiefs; 5 yrs $105.5M w/Chiefs.
    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    069 - WR - Tyler Lockett [W] / 3 yrs $31.8M w/Seattle.
    134 - G - Mark Glowinski [L] / 3 yrs $18M w/Indianapolis.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Jimmy for a 1st rounder would've been fine. I scored that a hit. Losing Unger, which took Seattle's O-Line from bad to dumpster fire status, insured they would never go back to a Super Bowl again, bad trade. Trading Frank Clark insured KC would go to back to back SuperBowls, while Seattle continues to scramble for pass rushers, L. Mark Glowinski was Cable'd and didn't do much while in Seattle, he found a home in Indy and has been a starter on one of the best O-Lines in football.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    4 Hits; 1 W; 1 Retained; 3 L's; 1 Bad Trade = 10 points


    THE RAMS (LA/ST. LOUIS) 2015
    ------
    1st / 10 - Todd Gurley (RB) [HIT][L] / 2x 1st Team All-Pro; 4 yrs $60M w/The Rams.

    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    057 - RT - Rob Havenstein [W] 4 yrs $32.5M w/The Rams.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Drafting Gurley was a huge hit for the Rams, paying him was a huge L. Rob Havenstein has been a staple on the Rams O-Line ever since being drafted.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    2 Hits; 1 W; 2 Retained; 1 L = 10 points


    TOTALS THROUGH THE 2013, 2014, & 2015 NFL DRAFTS:
    1st KC = 42 pts
    2nd NE = 40 pts
    3rd GB = 28 pts
    3rd PIT = 28 pts
    5th DAL = 27 pts
    6th BAL = 22 pts
    7th RAM = 22 pts
    8th NO = 18 pts
    9th SEA = 7 pts


    Seattle crawls out of the gutter with a really good draft, but mucked it up by not retaining their guys, and overspending for Jimmy Graham. Baltimore killed themselves with a bad 1st rd pick, and GB crapped the bed this round. New England is sneaky and shrewd unsurprisingly.

    I will do 2016 NEXT!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Fade
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  • What's amusing about this analysis is that with this methodology you are including quite a lot of first round picks much earlier than anything we've had, including the #1 overall pick. If the Hawks were picking at 1, 10, 13, 13, 15, 16, 17, and 18 in this interval due to much worse performance you'd probably be way more impressed by the FO's drafting.
    AgentDib
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  • Fade wrote:2013 - No Pick
    Poona is only 4th player since 2013 to get a second contract from the Seahawks that they drafted/UDFA.

    Britt, Lockett, & Reed being the others.


    It's a bit disengenious to say though, since only players between 2013-2016 would have been offered a 2nd contract by now, and we all know that those were 4 pretty poor drafts (which also yielded Frank Clark, who may not have been signed to a 2nd contract, but who was traded for draft picks used across the 2019 and 2020 drafts - which appear to have been among our best since 2012).

    By the time we get to the 2017 draft, we have Pocic (who just resigned), Griffin (who just signed a contract to become a top-10 paid CB), Carson, who'll likely either get a 2nd contract or a huge offer elsewhere. 2018-2020 draft picks won't be up for 2nd contracts until next year.
    themunn
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  • Paul Richardson busting despite being taken over a full round below much of the other picks nets the same -3 as whiffing on a guy in the top half of the first.

    Just kinda seems like a grading system put together specifically to get you to a certain result at the end without any context being applied to where the picks are, the level of talent available at said pick historically, and other factors.

    Dude gave Seattle an L for trading Frank Clark because they didn't want to pay him 20+ million a year. Clark has had two years in KC, with 8 sacks in 2019 and 6 in 2020. You'd be calling it an L if he was re-signed to that money without getting to the quarterback.

    Benson Mayowa had as many sacks as Frank Clark last year, and not paying him over 20m apy is an L?

    Get outta here lmao
    Maelstrom787
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  • And all are thrilled when we resigned snyder.
    5thgen
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  • 5thgen wrote:And all are thrilled when we resigned snyder.


    Who?
    Maelstrom787
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  • Subjective outcomes attributed to 1st round draft picks is a rather narrow (eye of the beholder) look at talent acquisition.

    Fortunately, there are many other avenues to talent evaluation and acquisition.

    As we have witnessed.
    Jville
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  • Maelstrom787 wrote:Paul Richardson busting despite being taken over a full round below much of the other picks nets the same -3 as whiffing on a guy in the top half of the first.

    Just kinda seems like a grading system put together specifically to get you to a certain result at the end without any context being applied to where the picks are,
    the level of talent available at said pick historically, and other factors.

    Dude gave Seattle an L for trading Frank Clark because they didn't want to pay him 20+ million a year. Clark has had two years in KC, with 8 sacks in 2019 and 6 in 2020. You'd be calling it an L if he was re-signed to that money without getting to the quarterback.

    Benson Mayowa had as many sacks as Frank Clark last year, and not paying him over 20m apy is an L?

    Get outta here lmao


    The scoring system rewards teams who build properly through the draft.

    Paul Richardson was a bust because he hardly played for the Seahawks in 4 years. And hardly played for the Redskins for that matter.

    Frank Clark was good enough to go to 2 Pro Bowls with the Chiefs. Benson Mayowa is not better than Frank Clark.
    Clark has an AV total of 19 and 2 ProBowls over the last 2 years. Mayowa has an AV total of 7 and 0 Pro Bowls over the last 2 years.

    You want me to score a guy who left a team in his prime, played well and made 2 Pro Bowls as a "W" for letting him walk? No, that is an "L."

    In terms of the contract Seattle screwed up by letting him play out his rookie deal. If they would've extended him with 1 yr remaining he could've been had for around what Danielle Hunter got $14.4M APY who set the DE market from the 2015 draft class. So they get an "L" either way, for not getting the contract done, or trading a pro-bowl player in his prime.

    I haven't gotten to the '19 draft yet, so we'll see if the Frank Clark trade itself is a "W" or not when I get there.

    Regardless, Seattle has clearly through three drafts (2013, 2014, 2015) been the worst of this group. Only a fanyboy would contend otherwise, with '13 being a real killer. We'll see how it goes in 2016 and beyond. Hopefully more '15 drafts, and less '13 and '14 drafts, hopefully.
    Fade
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  • AgentDib wrote:What's amusing about this analysis is that with this methodology you are including quite a lot of first round picks much earlier than anything we've had, including the #1 overall pick. If the Hawks were picking at 1, 10, 13, 13, 15, 16, 17, and 18 in this interval due to much worse performance you'd probably be way more impressed by the FO's drafting.


    Good thing teams can make up for it with the rest of their draft, and are not penalized for whiffing past their 1st selection to balance it out, even including UDFA's.
    Fade
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  • Nice try at this..
    I'm not impressed with their drafting myself and wish they had
    someone else making the picks.
    As for the Clark part..I feel he was a good pick but for the money
    he wanted to stay-no..We did get DK out of him so that was a win.
    IndyHawk
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  • Fade, great breakdown.

    I received backlash previously for pointing out the ineptness of this FO at drafting.

    And the posters that accused me of trolling then pointed out Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman, Wagner and Wilson.

    Well, Wagner and Wilson are the only remaining players and the drafts Carroll hit on are going on 10 years ago.

    Many here do not want to accept that fact that it has been almost a decade since the Super Bowl core was established and Seattle is not that same nucleus of talent they once were.

    Carroll cannot draft well and it’s frustrating because he has a system used to filter draft picks for what and who he wants and his own filtering system is flawed. Yet, he doesn’t believe in making any changes to something that has clearly not helped him draft well.

    This team is voided of the talent you need to carry out Carroll’s system and win playoff games consistently.

    But there are posters here that worship Carroll because he had a great 2012 draft. Smh.
    TheLegendOfBoom
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  • Schneider needed the keys taken away years ago.
    Tical21
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  • //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
    *UPDATE*
    /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

    I'm doing a deep dive on the top 8 teams or thereabouts over the last 8 years + the Cowboys. :D
    Looking at 1st round asset allocation firstly, the rest of their draft secondarily, and overall retention thirdly.

    * If a team moved on from a guy (multi-year) and they succeed it will be classified as an "L."

    * If a team re-signed a guy (multi-year) and they flopped it will be classified as an "L."

    * If a team re-signed a guy (multi-year) and they succeed it will be classified as a "W."

    * If a team moved on from a guy (multi-year) and they flopped it will be classified as a "W."

    * The Bust label is applicable to 1st selection only, and ignored afterwards to avoid semantics. Unless the team in question has multiple 1st round picks, then all 1st rounders will be counted.

    * 1st selections will be classified as busts who do not get big multi-year 2nd contracts with few exceptions, if any.

    * 2nd selection and beyond, I am focusing on just the "Hits" (bigger multi-year contracts).

    * 5 Designations in total: Hit, W, Retained, Bust, and L.

    * SCORING SYSTEM:
    +3 points for a Hit;
    +2 points for Retained;
    +1 point for a W;
    Negative 1 point for an L;
    Negative 3 points for a 1st Selection Bust;
    Negative 3 points for Poor 1st rd Asset usage (Bad Trade).


    Fourth up is the 2016 NFL Draft.

    BALTIMORE RAVENS 2016
    ------
    1st / 6 - Ronnie Stanley (OT) [HIT][W] 1st Team All-Pro; 5 yrs $112M w/Baltimore.
    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    104 - NB - Tavon Young [L] / 3 yrs $25.8M w/Ravens.
    130 - G - Alex Lewis [W] / 3 yrs $18.6M w/NYJ.
    146 - Edge - Matthew Judon [L] - 2x Pro Bowl; 4 yrs $56M w/New England.
    UDFA - NT - Micheal Pierce [W] - 3 yrs $27M w/Minnesota.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Tavon Young signed a contract making him the highest paid nickel back in the NFL. Then proceeded to have a neck injury followed by a torn ACL, bad injury luck = L. Alex Lewis is an average starting Guard for the NYJ, nothing more nothing less, it will alway be a W in my book when you avoid paying average. Judon was one of the steals of the 2016 draft. They franchise tagged him in 2020, and then chose to let him walk in 2021, L. Baltimore hit on a run-stuffing gem in UDFA, but they already had a stud in that spot in Brandon Williams, they get the W for losing a productive player, who opted out in 2020 due to Covid, though this could flip to an L down the road if Pierce comes back with a vengeance in Minnesota.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    5 Hits; 3 W's; 1 Retained; 2 L's = 18 points.


    DALLAS COWBOYS 2016
    ------
    1st / 4 - Ezekiel Elliiot (RB ) [HIT][L] - 1st Team All-Pro; 2x NFL Rushing Yards Leader - 6 yrs $90M w/Dallas.

    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    034 - LB - Jaylon Smith [W] - 1x Pro Bowl; 5 yrs $64M w/Dallas.
    135 - QB - Dak Prescott [W] - All Rookie Team; 2x Pro Bowl; 4 yrs $160M w/Dallas.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Zeke was phenomenal on his rookie contract and has been a shell of his former self since getting paid, L. Jaylon Smith, though a little overpaid has been a tackling machine for the Cowboys. Dak is the only Franchise QB to be found outside of the top 10 picks since Russell Wilson, W.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    3 Hits; 2 W's; 3 Retained; 1 L = 16 points.


    GREEN BAY PACKERS 2016
    ------
    1st / 27 - Kenny Clark (NT) [HIT][W] 1x Pro Bowl; 4 yrs $70M w/Green Bay.
    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    131 - LB - Blake Martinez [L] - NFL Tackles leader in 2017; 3 yrs $30M w/NYG.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    You know you're damn good when you can make the Pro Bowl as a Nose Tackle in the NFL, Kenny Clark, W. Losing a productive player like Martinez is an L.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    2 Hits; 1 W; 1 Retained; 1 L = 8 points


    KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 2016
    ------
    2nd / 37 - Chris Jones (DT) [HIT][W] - 2x 2nd Team All-Pro - 4 yrs $80M w/Kansas City.

    * KC traded down with SF and picked up 105 and 178 which bore no fruit of note.
    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    165 - WR - Tyreek Hill [W] / 3x 1st Team All-Pro; 3 yrs $54M w/Kansas City.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Outside of Aaron Donald there isn't many guys who get to the QB better from the interior than Chris Jones, W. Tyreek Hill is one of the best WRs in the NFL drafted all the way down at pick #165.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    2 Hits; 2 W's; 2 Retained = 12 points


    NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 2016
    ------
    1st / -- FORFEITED (Deflate Gate) [-3 Points]

    2nd / 60 - Cyrus Jones (CB) (1st Selection) [BUST]

    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    078 - G - Joe Thuney [L] / 2nd Team All-Pro; 5 yrs $80M w/Kansas City.
    UDFA - CB - Jonathan Jones [W] / 3 yrs $21M w/New England.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    New England took it on the chin with Deflate Gate, and then whiffed on their 1st selection putting them in a big hole they never really climbed out of, though they did draft Joe Thuney and found Jonathan Jones in UDFA.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    2 Hits; 1 W; 1 Retained; 1 L; 1 Bust; 1 Deflate Gate = 2 points


    NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 2016
    ------
    1st / 12 - Sheldon Rankins (DT) [BUST][W] / 2 yrs $17M w/NYJ.
    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    047 - WR - Michael Thomas [W] / NFL OPotY; 2x 1st Team All-Pro; 5 yrs $100M w/New Orleans.
    062 - S - Vonn Bell [L] / 3 yrs $18M w/Cincinnati.
    120 - DT - David Onyemata [W] / 3 yrs $27M w/New Orleans.
    UDFA - K - Wil Lutz [W] 5 yrs 20.25M w/New Orleans.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Rankins would've been a hit but was injured too often to be considered as such. They get the W for letting him walk and not blowing another $17M on him. Michael Thomas has been one of the most prolific WRs in the NFL since entering the league. Vonn Bell was one of those can't keep everyone situations, L. David Onyemata can give similar production to Rankins and can actually stay on the field. Lutz technically started with Baltimore but was waived in camp and gifted to the Saints. He has gone on to be one of the best Kickers in the NFL.
    -------------
    4 Hits; 4 W's; 3 Retained; 1 L; 1 Bust = 18 points


    PITTSBURGH STEELERS 2016
    ------
    1st / 25 - Artie Burns (CB) [BUST]

    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    089 - DT - Javon Hargrave [W] / 3 yrs $39M w/Philadelphia.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Avoided massively overpaying Hargrave, W. Otherwise an uninspired draft from Pittsburgh.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    1 Hit; 1 W; 1 Bust = 1 point


    SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 2016
    ------
    1st / 31 - Germain Ifedi (OL) [BUST]

    * Seattle traded down from 26 netting pick 94 which turned into a backup TE, yay.
    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    049 - DT - Jarran Reed [W] / 2 yrs $23M w/Seattle.
    UDFA - OT - George Fant [W] / 3 yrs $30M w/NYJ.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Germain Ifedi provided backup quality play for 4 seasons, and then signed a 1 yr deal with Chicago for the league minimum, BUST! Jarran Reed has provided good all-around play and has been a staple on the Seahawks D-Line since being drafted, W. Fant was a nice find in UDFA, Seattle never really developed him, and wisely let him get overpaid by the Jets, swapping him for Brandon Shell who is a better player at a fraction of the price, W.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    2 Hits; 2 Ws; 1 Retained; 1 Bust = 7 points


    THE RAMS (LA/ST. LOUIS) 2016
    ------
    1st / 1 - Jared Goff (QB) [BUST][L] / 4 yrs $134M w/The Rams.

    * The Rams traded two 1sts, two 2nds, and two 3rds, to move up to #1 to draft Jared Goff [BAD TRADE]. They would later go on to eat $32M in dead money and trade two more 1sts to get him off of their team, LOL.

    ------
    Other Notable Selections:

    110 - TE - Tyler Higbee [W] / 4 yrs $31M w/The Rams.
    UDFA - LB - Corey Littleton [W] 3 yrs $36M w/Las Vegas.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Selling the farm for Goff ultimately is the reason why the Rams do not have a Super Bowl championship, if not multiple championships. Tyler Higbee and Littleton were nice finds, but the Goff trade was one of the worst of the decade.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    2 Hits; 2 W; 1 Retained; 1 L; 1 Bust; 1 Bad Trade = 3 points


    TOTALS THROUGH THE 2013, 2014, 2015, & 2016 NFL DRAFTS:
    1st KC = 54 pts
    2nd DAL = 43 pts
    3rd NE = 42 pts
    4th BAL = 40 pts
    5th GB = 36 pts
    5th NO = 36 pts
    7th PIT = 29 pts
    8th RAM = 25 pts
    9th SEA = 14 pts


    Dallas is surprisingly at #2, but when you think about how many O-Lineman they hit on and finding Dak Prescott in this time period, it isn't all that surprising. KC continues to find 'Hits" to stay in first place, NE was pretty bad and I wonder if their draft luck has run out going forward. New Orleans has just started their run of epic drafts so they should shoot up the board. Seattle… I am disappoint.



    I will do 2017 NEXT!!!!!!!!!!!!![/quote]
    Last edited by Fade on Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
    Fade
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  • Tical21 wrote:Schneider needed the keys taken away years ago.


    I believe Pete Carroll was a big reason why they drafted so well in the first 3 years, and why they have drafted so poorly since. Once Pete lost familiarity and incite with the prospects entering the draft if fell apart.

    Since then, they've become too short sighted, overreact to the previous season, and get way too focused on immediate need. Passing up tons of great players to fill said needs.

    Rob Staton w/Jeff Simmons break it down perfectly in his last vid.


    Draft talk starts at 38:40.
    Fade
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