QB EPA after taking a hit

Another reason why the playcaller and Russ picking up the tempo is so important. He needs to avoid hits. Not for injury, but for rhythm.

To those talking about David Carr syndrome, there's SOMETHING there. I don't think its Carr syndrome, per se, but there is a huge dip in performance after Russ takes a hit.


[tweet]https://twitter.com/mfbanalytics/status/1412471464196984840[/tweet]

Another reason why the FO should have prioritized the o-line much more than they have over the last few seasons. Granted, we have some pieces now -- hopefully not too little too late. We shall see.

Ruminator":2wlu9b4k said:

Another reason why the FO should have prioritized the o-line much more than they have over the last few seasons. Granted, we have some pieces now -- hopefully not too little too late. We shall see.

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No offensive line prevents a quarterback with a 3 second average time to throw from taking hits. No reasonably obtainable one, anyway.

This is on coaching and Russ. He needs to be getting the ball out quicker. He said it himself, he takes too many hits.

If the checkdowns/quick hits aren't there, they need to be called. If they're being defended adequately, the run game needs to be ridden harder. If they're open, Russ needs to hit them instead of looking them off for the deep shot. Period.

Point blank, truth. Russ' style of play has always been a double-edged sword. At times, pure magic. At other times, being the most hit QB in the league for years.

It's both on Russ and the coaching to scheme quick release pass plays/options....I think we are definitely going to see improvement in this area this season.

Aros":3ms1em1n said:

Point blank, truth. Russ' style of play has always been a double-edged sword. At times, pure magic. At other times, being the most hit QB in the league for years.

It's both on Russ and the coaching to scheme quick release pass plays/options....I think we are definitely going to see improvement in this area this season.

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I agree to a point except he has also been the most hit, hurried, pressured and sacked Qb in the least in under 2.5 seconds, and under 2 seconds. So I agree its on Russ some, Coaching some, oline some, Wr some, Rbs some, TEs some. All that said let me remind everyone in PCs history in the NFL as a HC his QBs have always been in the tops in hits, hurries, pressures and sacks. It is the style of ball he likes. Run and take shots. Shots mean long passes which means more time. Run can also mean 3rd and long.

I agree as long as PC stays out of it there will be improvement.

Sure, Russ has to own some of it, but lets be honest, the Oline has stunk during his tenure and theres no sense in it. The long ball has always been Petes plan of choice which equates to the QB holding the ball longer, but he didnt care because Russ was so elusive so the Oline was a low priority. Hoping this years line is different, but still think they should have addressed the center position.

That study is about quarterbacks and says nothing about any other position. Quarterback tendencies are mostly ingrained by the early twenties. In my opinion, they always go back to who they are when chaos ensues, confusion sets in and a games outcome is at hand.

But looking at the chart, it might be inferred that it reinforces what Aaron Donald says the Rams defensive strategy over his years has been and why he looks forward to each meeting. LOL I doubt there has been anyone who destabilizes Mr. Wilson quiet like Aaron Donald. Ya know there is another side to any contest. :biggthumpup: That's why they play the game.

Can someone out there in Seahawks-verse make sure John and Pete see these numbers? It's shocking, and that's for someone that had an anecdotal idea that this was the case.

I was watching the 2013/14 NFC championship on NFL network tonight and saw a bunch of times where Russ had a pocket but jumped out of it like he was being pressured when he wasn’t. I think he can’t see the field when there is a tight pocket cause of his height. So he gets antsy and runs into trouble. I hope this year he is able to get the ball out quicker. But I don’t believe he will be any different if he was to go to another team.


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HawkinNY":1wvuj36f said:

I was watching the 2013/14 NFC championship on NFL network tonight and saw a bunch of times where Russ had a pocket but jumped out of it like he was being pressured when he wasn’t. I think he can’t see the field when there is a tight pocket cause of his height. So he gets antsy and runs into trouble. I hope this year he is able to get the ball out quicker. But I don’t believe he will be any different if he was to go to another team.


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Based on what you said, if he couldn't see the field in 2013/2014 due to his height, why should he be able to see the field now? Has he grew taller in the best 7 years? or are our current OL shorter than OL of 2013/2014?

Its amazing how with all the things he can't do, according to some on this forum, how he remains a top 5 Qb, I mean according to alot on this site

he cant throw short
cant see over the oline
cant throw over the middle
to slow
to short
not black enough
take to long to throw
bails even with a good pocket
won't throw it away
takes to many sacks
has to many things outside of football going on
To fat
Cant carry a team
Does not throw people open
Does not anticipate
Not smart enough
take to long to decide
sucks at interviews
is fake
Ciara
Players don't like him
Is the reason the LOD is gone
I the reason we have not gotten to the NFC champ or beyond
Is holding us back
Was not important to our Sb win
He does not run enough
Runs to much

etc etc


I mean crap how in the heck was he one of only 2 QBs to be top 10 in qb rating, tds, complt%, and ypa just this past year.

And almost always top 10 in those categories every year, with alof of the time top 5.

The heck can he have the 2nd best career Qb rating ever. etc etc etc

It just amazes me how he has so many issues and yet still gets it done. :sarcasm_off:

This thread went south quick..
There is truth in all this however.

So, statistically speaking, once RW gets hit he panics like a little child and gets rid of it as fast as he can despite PC probably calling another slow developing pass play? I’m sure RussIsGod63 has another explanation ...

JayhawkMike":vm3lydnd said:

So, statistically speaking, once RW gets hit he panics like a little child and gets rid of it as fast as he can despite PC probably calling another slow developing pass play? I’m sure RussIsGod63 has another explanation ...

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No I think I'd rather hear YOUR "Expert Anal-o-sis", as you seem to have all the answers...I mean, REAL experts are at a loss for FULL explanation...I hear a lot of conjecture, wit a little bu!!$#it thrown in with their opinions, but John63 does raise some valid railings on a lot of the Wilson detractors...Hint; A lot of people here, and around the country, THINK that they know how to Coach/Manage/Draft better than Pete & John?, WHY ain't you taking their jobs away from them?...Cuz most of y'all be suckin' wind.
:stirthepot:

You know, this doesn't have to be a cartoonish exhibit of unrealistically polarized standpoints that are devoid of any nuance or concrete analysis. Just saying.

Criticize Russ? Post stats or valid conclusions drawn from film study.
Defend Russ to the death? Same thing.

People who know what they're talking about generally fall somewhere in the middle of the extremist factions displayed above.

Everything else is just shit flinging.

Ruminator":350h4xk2 said:

Another reason why the FO should have prioritized the o-line much more than they have over the last few seasons. Granted, we have some pieces now -- hopefully not too little too late. We shall see.

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It's hard to believe people think it's still the line. This is mostly on Russ, who sits back in the pocket way too long always looking for the money ball. He needs to learn to take the shorter stuff and move the chains, and I think that is precisely why Waldron was brought in. They will stay take deep shots, but they need to be more efficient - especially on 3rd down. When you re-watch games from last season, you see there are open receivers all over the place but for whatever reason, Russ doesn't pull the trigger - even when staring right at them.

I am hoping we see a decided emphasis on getting rid of the ball quick and taking what the defense gives us. We let teams get away with playing us deep last season and didn't adjust. Russ also isn't nearly as elusive as he used to be (Father Time is undefeated), and it still seems like he feels he can escape and pull off the magic.

FlyingGreg":hvda6hlj said:

Ruminator":hvda6hlj said:

Another reason why the FO should have prioritized the o-line much more than they have over the last few seasons. Granted, we have some pieces now -- hopefully not too little too late. We shall see.

Click to expand...

It's hard to believe people think it's still the line. This is mostly on Russ, who sits back in the pocket way too long always looking for the money ball. He needs to learn to take the shorter stuff and move the chains, and I think that is precisely why Waldron was brought in. They will stay take deep shots, but they need to be more efficient - especially on 3rd down. When you re-watch games from last season, you see there are open receivers all over the place but for whatever reason, Russ doesn't pull the trigger - even when staring right at them.

I am hoping we see a decided emphasis on getting rid of the ball quick and taking what the defense gives us. We let teams get away with playing us deep last season and didn't adjust. Russ also isn't nearly as elusive as he used to be (Father Time is undefeated), and it still seems like he feels he can escape and pull off the magic.

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The reason why a lot of us still put a lot of this on the line is because as both PFF and ESPN said 25% of the sacks are Wilson. However, even taking away that 25% Wilson is still amongst the most sacked QBs. There is a reason through most of his career his olines have been ranked so bad in pass protection, and footballoutsiders takes into account sacks, hits, hurries and pressures on the Qb and yet still avg pass blocking ranking of 26th

So yes some is on Wilson, some is in the play calls and design, and a lot is on the oline. There is a reason every QB under PC as a HC has been amongst the most sacked, hit, hurried and pressured Qbs.

The analysis is good, but leaves out a lot of info like down and distance, play call, coverage etc. If you are constantly in 2nd and 3rd and long you will need to hold the ball. That is the type of info missing. That said there is little doubt some of this is on Wilson. However, the facts show a lot is on oline and a lot on play call and design.

Hopefully PC staying out of the offense and Waldron doing what he appears to be doing will help.

FlyingGreg":30h3hqph said:

Ruminator":30h3hqph said:

Another reason why the FO should have prioritized the o-line much more than they have over the last few seasons. Granted, we have some pieces now -- hopefully not too little too late. We shall see.

Click to expand...

It's hard to believe people think it's still the line. This is mostly on Russ, who sits back in the pocket way too long always looking for the money ball. He needs to learn to take the shorter stuff and move the chains, and I think that is precisely why Waldron was brought in. They will stay take deep shots, but they need to be more efficient - especially on 3rd down. When you re-watch games from last season, you see there are open receivers all over the place but for whatever reason, Russ doesn't pull the trigger - even when staring right at them.

I am hoping we see a decided emphasis on getting rid of the ball quick and taking what the defense gives us. We let teams get away with playing us deep last season and didn't adjust. Russ also isn't nearly as elusive as he used to be (Father Time is undefeated), and it still seems like he feels he can escape and pull off the magic.

Click to expand...

I hear ya ........... It's group think going off about things it doesn't watch or comprehend. Most fans don't watch the offensive line or appreciate play call sequencing. If a play or series disappoints, somebody has to be declared the scapegoat. And above all else, a good play by the opposition can never be recognized or credited. That's at the very top of the list of group think 101.

This is an interesting statistic and there may be something there. The eye test from this last season does tell me that Russ needs to get rid of the ball out quicker and take the easy layup more often. However, I also wonder if this isn't a prime example of correlation being mistaken for causation and I don't think the data here is conclusive on its own merits.

As a mobile QB Russ doesn't often just take random hits out of nowhere. It's usually against the teams with good defensive lines who have our offense confused and contained, and in situations where he doesn't want to throw the ball away, and when the offense as a whole is struggling. If the premise is that one reason why Russ takes hits is holding onto it too long, then him having a very short time to throw on the next pass can be viewed as a positive correction factor.

Next, note the title of the last chart: A Quarterback's 3-play average after getting hit compared to their season average. The takeaway that Stafford is highly resilient is one way to interpret that, but another equally valid view is that Stafford's high end when everything is going well could be lower than Russ. There could be a bigger drop off when Russ is pressured because the upside when he is comfortable in the pocket is greater. In other words, both the Camry and the Ferrari are going struggle on an off-road course, but the Ferrari is the better choice on a track.

No offense, but I don't think this statistic says what everyone thinks it does. The bottom 7 includes Russ, Brady, Mahomes, Allen. Arguably 4 of the top 5 or 6 QBs in the league.