Seahawks projecetd to have "4th Best Passblocking O-Line"

Projecting the NFL's best and worst pass-protecting offensive lines: Ranking pass block win rates for 2021

Seth Walder - ESPN Analytics

A few years ago, ESPN Analytics developed pass block win rate (PBWR) to measure how often individual players and teams sustained their pass blocks for at least 2.5 seconds, using player tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats. That was backward-looking, but let's flip it forward to project every team's pass block win rate for the 2021 season.

To achieve this we used a regression model that considers every projected starter's individual pass block win rate over the past two seasons. Players who did not play in either or both seasons (including rookies) were assigned a below-average PBWR for their position, and anyone who failed to meet the qualifying threshold had their win rate regressed toward that below-average target.


We'll go 1-32 based on projected PBWR for 2021, using ESPN fantasy analyst Mike Clay's offensive line starter projections to give us each team's starting five. The expected starters are listed along with their 2020 PBWR rank (if they qualified). For reference, there were 62 qualifiers at tackle, 70 at guard and 35 at center last season.

You can see last season's PBWR rankings here. We'll have a similar list of teams' projected run block win rates (RBWR) out in a couple of weeks. But now we're focusing on pass-blocking ...

1. Cleveland Browns
Projected PBWR: 65%

2. Green Bay Packers
Projected PBWR: 65%

3. Arizona Cardinals
Projected PBWR: 63%

4. Seattle Seahawks
Projected PBWR: 62%

Projected offensive line: Duane Brown (second), Damien Lewis (33rd), Ethan Pocic (16th), Gabe Jackson (21st), Brandon Shell (12th)

Brown might not get enough credit as one of the best pass-blocking tackles in the league; he has finished among the top three in PBWR in two of the past three seasons. Jackson should be an upgrade over Mike Iupati, which is one reason why we project the Seahawks to improve from ninth in PBWR last season to fourth in 2021.


While Russell Wilson might be frustrated by how often he has been hit, there aren't many places better equipped to protect him than Seattle.

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pmedic920":20zwyap4 said:

Great news if it holds true.

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Throwdown":1hnopego said:

PFF only attributed 17 sacks to the oline

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sutz":31l9bet0 said:

Not sure how anybody does their metrics on something like the O-line, but whatever. I really like that there appears to be some continuity this year. Seemed like we went through 4-5 seasons where there was 3-4 new players on the O-line every season. The O-line that stays together plays together, they require lots of reps working together to get really good.

Having so many returning players is a good thing IMHO.

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John63":139wi7o9 said:

Throwdown":139wi7o9 said:

PFF only attributed 17 sacks to the oline

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The rest were a combination of those other factors with the oline, and long play development being the top 2.

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JayhawkMike":2fcwrkm1 said:

John63":2fcwrkm1 said:

Throwdown":2fcwrkm1 said:

PFF only attributed 17 sacks to the oline

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The rest were a combination of those other factors with the oline, and long play development being the top 2.

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And your objective metric for that assumption?

Many times “slow developing play” meant “Russ held the ball too long instead of taking the short stuff”

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