Russell Wilson Dead Last in 3rd dwn Passing Efficiency!!

I suspected this but heard a segment on it today that confirmed this. Russ ranks #34 out of 34 in 3rd down passing efficiency at 40.6%. That is why we cannot control the clock and move the sticks (in part at least). 3rd and long is contributing as well, but is what it is. Russell is no longer Mr. Clutch when we need him to be.

https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-splits/passing/third-down/2021?sort=passpct

BTW lets not blame Waldron. Geno is actually #2 of anyone over 20 attempts at 68.2%.

Chew on that for a while....... :3-1:

In the early days of Russ, I enjoyed watching our third-down plays. Now I almost expect that we're not going to convert. It's just so frustrating.

Keyhawk":109v9p0c said:

In the early days of Russ, I enjoyed watching our third-down plays. Now I almost expect that we're not going to convert. It's just so frustrating.

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Agree. But even up through 2020 and 2019 seasons he was over 60% passing on 3rd downs. Something is amiss this season and it stands out as a glaring huge reason we have such a poor time of possession difference and cannot move the chains. We are turning Dickson into our all star sad to say.

Seymour":2odakx5e said:

BTW lets not blame Waldron. Geno is actually #2 of anyone over 20 attempts at 68.2%.

Chew on that for a while....... :3-1:

Click to expand...

Ya think that Wilson didn't like that Geno was doing well ? Wilson leap-frogged with an injury to starter somehow and goose egged . Geno would not of goosed egged in GB.

Keyhawk":2lyxc9zp said:

In the early days of Russ, I enjoyed watching our third-down plays. Now I almost expect that we're not going to convert. It's just so frustrating.

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Sigh..

Yeah, those 2012-2013 years of Russ just killing it with the read option, 10 yard routes to Doug and scrambling for 20 yard gains frequently on 3rd down seem to be a distant memory. That's also before DB's had his pirouette down and were playing him to step up instead of turn out. Dang, we were a juggernaut. I love watching old games, like the Chicago game or when we dismantled the Bills in Toronoto, but it's a litte depressing now TBH. Man we had a good team back then.

I guess you forgot about " Mr. Unlimited ". He's still lurking , as proven in GB..

Seymour":6t8tf2e1 said:

I suspected this but heard a segment on it today that confirmed this. Russ ranks #34 out of 34 in 3rd down passing efficiency at 40.6%. That is why we cannot control the clock and move the sticks (in part at least). 3rd and long is contributing as well, but is what it is. Russell is no longer Mr. Clutch when we need him to be.

https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-splits/passing/third-down/2021?sort=passpct

Click to expand...

OKay, that is not good at all. So the question now is why. So as a team our 3rd down conversation is 35%. That means we are not covnerting throwing or running the ball.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct

Interestingly the last game we were 64%, the last 3 games remember Wilson only played two of them we are 35%

So there is an issue. I have gone back through all the play by play and the biggest thing I see is a large % of 3rd and long.

The question now is what to do about it and that is up to PC.

Seymour":ee5yehpc said:

I suspected this but heard a segment on it today that confirmed this. Russ ranks #34 out of 34 in 3rd down passing efficiency at 40.6%. That is why we cannot control the clock and move the sticks (in part at least). 3rd and long is contributing as well, but is what it is. Russell is no longer Mr. Clutch when we need him to be.

https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-splits/passing/third-down/2021?sort=passpct

Click to expand...

His best year was 2015 67%. Hovers around 60% most years. The team has been pretty poor on 3rd down his entire tenure. Those efficiency numbers don't include drop backs that result in unnecessary sacks. That number might be shockingly bad

Seymour":311lxakp said:

BTW lets not blame Waldron. Geno is actually #2 of anyone over 20 attempts at 68.2%.

Chew on that for a while....... :3-1:

Click to expand...

Can't blame Shane? then we blame Pete, it's Peteball that is the root of all problems. If only we let Russ cook.

John63":aomgxlyi said:

Seymour":aomgxlyi said:

I suspected this but heard a segment on it today that confirmed this. Russ ranks #34 out of 34 in 3rd down passing efficiency at 40.6%. That is why we cannot control the clock and move the sticks (in part at least). 3rd and long is contributing as well, but is what it is. Russell is no longer Mr. Clutch when we need him to be.

https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-splits/passing/third-down/2021?sort=passpct

Click to expand...

OKay, that is not good at all. So the question now is why. So as a team our 3rd down conversation is 35%. That means we are not covnerting throwing or running the ball.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct

Interestingly the last game we were 64%, the last 3 games remember Wilson only played two of them we are 35%

So there is an issue. I have gone back through all the play by play and the biggest thing I see is a large % of 3rd and long.

The question now is what to do about it and that is up to PC.

Click to expand...

Yes PC could come up with some brilliant ways to improve 3rd down conversions.

Or here's a novel idea that might blow your mind. What if, say, you know when the players line up at the line scrimmage... and then the ball is snapped... What if, what if maybe... the players getting paid millions to do their jobs... simply just.... executed?

hoxrox":2u7ae1gy said:

John63":2u7ae1gy said:

Seymour":2u7ae1gy said:

I suspected this but heard a segment on it today that confirmed this. Russ ranks #34 out of 34 in 3rd down passing efficiency at 40.6%. That is why we cannot control the clock and move the sticks (in part at least). 3rd and long is contributing as well, but is what it is. Russell is no longer Mr. Clutch when we need him to be.

https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-splits/passing/third-down/2021?sort=passpct

Click to expand...

OKay, that is not good at all. So the question now is why. So as a team our 3rd down conversation is 35%. That means we are not covnerting throwing or running the ball.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct

Interestingly the last game we were 64%, the last 3 games remember Wilson only played two of them we are 35%

So there is an issue. I have gone back through all the play by play and the biggest thing I see is a large % of 3rd and long.

The question now is what to do about it and that is up to PC.

Click to expand...

Yes PC could come up with some brilliant ways to improve 3rd down conversions.

Or here's a novel idea that might blow your mind. What if, say, you know when the players line up at the line scrimmage... and then the ball is snapped... What if, what if maybe... the players getting paid millions to do their jobs... simply just.... executed?

Click to expand...

Here is one what if they do execute but the play call and design is so bad it does not matter? Or what if the million dollar players on the other side know whats comming because we are so predictable? Amazing how many different things can go on. Here is another idea why not u go show them.how to do it.

John63":cwfhorbg said:

Seymour":cwfhorbg said:

I suspected this but heard a segment on it today that confirmed this. Russ ranks #34 out of 34 in 3rd down passing efficiency at 40.6%. That is why we cannot control the clock and move the sticks (in part at least). 3rd and long is contributing as well, but is what it is. Russell is no longer Mr. Clutch when we need him to be.

https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-splits/passing/third-down/2021?sort=passpct

Click to expand...

OKay, that is not good at all. So the question now is why. So as a team our 3rd down conversation is 35%. That means we are not covnerting throwing or running the ball.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct

Interestingly the last game we were 64%, the last 3 games remember Wilson only played two of them we are 35%

So there is an issue. I have gone back through all the play by play and the biggest thing I see is a large % of 3rd and long.

The question now is what to do about it and that is up to PC.

Click to expand...

There have been 3rd and longs, some for stupid penalties and some for sacks. You'd have to look at all of the sack plays to understand who's at fault. Some are busts in the line. Some are holding the ball too long, but all are attributable to an offensive attack that's been solved for 3 years... despite having 2 different coordinators.

I dont know what Pete can do to unlock the potential of the offense, anymore than Waldron if the plays just aren't being executed. If we go back to the plays that work for #3, we're doing what every defense in the league has already seen.

We can and should run the ball more for sure. Maybe Waldron can put together something special in that regard to get the defenses off balance.

This is an interesting stat.

By itself you cannot draw a whole lot of conclusions other than:
What we are doing now is not working


Is it Russ? Pete? Something else?

1 - What is the average distance to convert?
2 - How does that compare with the rest of the league?
3 - What is the pressure rate per 3rd down?
4 - pressure rate vs rest of the league?
5 - How much time on avg before protection breaks?
6 - time vs rest of the league?

You don't get to pin the conversion rate on Russ until you know how much of it is really him.

We already give advantages to the pass rush by snapping near the zero, essentially telling the defense our snap count.

If you are passing on 3rd and long, they know you are passing.

Most teams don't overtly telegraph their plays and snap count like we do.

Other salient factors, what plays we are running to convert and how those compare to the rest of the league?

John63":hwhy58de said:

Here is one what if they do execute but the play call and design is so bad it does not matter? Or what if the million dollar players on the other side know whats comming because we are so predictable? Amazing how many different things can go on. Here is another idea why not u go show them.how to do it.

Click to expand...

I agree they can be more creative in their play design, but at the end of the day, it almost always comes down to execution.

I mean that flea flicker was unpredictable right? But badly executed.

And when was the last time we saw the wildcat convert for a first down? That was well-executed.

Missed open receivers all over the field, despite clean pockets to step into? Yeah, that's badly-executed.

As the Patriots coaches would say, just do your job.

This can be a symptom of a pass happy team, but there's also an offsetting benefit which many don't talk about in the form of fewer third downs total. If we pick up a big chunk play with a bomb to DK then that's 4-5 third downs we didn't need to convert along the way, and the fewer third downs you have the fewer opportunities for the defense to make a stop in the first place.

Conversely, if you are at the top of third down efficiency then you're probably running the ball a ton and facing shorter third downs as a result. But even if they are all 3rd and 1 and you convert 67% of them then the number of times you are looking at third down will still lead to a punt more often than a score.

One benefit to the second sort of offense is that it does help keep your defense off the field and the TOP from getting too uneven. That doesn't mean third down efficiency is the right metric to chase. Scoring is not only what we care about more, but allows you to fairly compare a downfield passing attack with a dink and dunk offense. Which scores more?

That is exactly it.

If you convert on 2nd, then you never hit 3rd.

It would be interesting to see Wilson's conversion % per drive and how that compares.

But also curious just how well 3rd down conversion % relates to winning.

Do the top-scoring teams tend to do well at this or are they in the middle?

Do the top winning teams?

The data is there, maybe someone can crunch it but I remember when we were one of the top offenses, Wilson was scoring at an MVP clip and then the commentator talking point was that we don't convert 3rds well because we tend to get 1sts or scores on 1st or 2nd down anyway.

hoxrox":wlyl0p2t said:

John63":wlyl0p2t said:

Here is one what if they do execute but the play call and design is so bad it does not matter? Or what if the million dollar players on the other side know whats comming because we are so predictable? Amazing how many different things can go on. Here is another idea why not u go show them.how to do it.

Click to expand...

I agree they can be more creative in their play design, but at the end of the day, it almost always comes down to execution.

I mean that flea flicker was unpredictable right? But badly executed.

And when was the last time we saw the wildcat convert for a first down? That was well-executed.

Missed open receivers all over the field, despite clean pockets to step into? Yeah, that's badly-executed.

As the Patriots coaches would say, just do your job.

Click to expand...

but again you are forgetting that the other tam is also doing their jobs, and also million dollar players and since most of the time, everyone knows what's coming it puts us in a hole. THis problem is more about the play design than anything, You cant execute when the other team knows what's comming.

Seymour":2dsjcomo said:

BTW lets not blame Waldron. Geno is actually #2 of anyone over 20 attempts at 68.2%.

Chew on that for a while....... :3-1:

Click to expand...

I have thought on this ^ & my only answer is, Geno = Small sample size against lesser opponents Although, not taking anything away from Geno, he did do a great job of taking everything the Defenses were giving, + Waldron did appear to have a game plan that was more tailored to fit Geno.
Also, Defenses didn't have a whole lot of game film on him, & to be fair to Geno Smith and not sell him short, his 'GAME' was showing big improvements from week to week. :vodka:

John63":2zfgwm5l said:

hoxrox":2zfgwm5l said:

John63":2zfgwm5l said:

Here is one what if they do execute but the play call and design is so bad it does not matter? Or what if the million dollar players on the other side know whats comming because we are so predictable? Amazing how many different things can go on. Here is another idea why not u go show them.how to do it.

Click to expand...

I agree they can be more creative in their play design, but at the end of the day, it almost always comes down to execution.

I mean that flea flicker was unpredictable right? But badly executed.

And when was the last time we saw the wildcat convert for a first down? That was well-executed.

Missed open receivers all over the field, despite clean pockets to step into? Yeah, that's badly-executed.

As the Patriots coaches would say, just do your job.

Click to expand...

but again you are forgetting that the other tam is also doing their jobs, and also million dollar players and since most of the time, everyone knows what's coming it puts us in a hole. THis problem is more about the play design than anything, You cant execute when the other team knows what's comming.

Click to expand...

Again, it's about execution and 3rd down specifically.

You talk about 3rd and longs? How about 3rd and 2? You got a wide open Gerald Everett on the out for an easy first down. Yet you throw the ball deep to a double-covered DK for the incompletion.

That has nothing to do with predictability. That's on execution, period.