Why we need to get back to what we do best

And as a few have said, go back to a sophisticated
, but still intimidating running game, strong defense, and efficient passing game.

Wk 1 won 49%
Wk 2 lost 65% , averaged 4.3 ypc
We 3 lost 65% , averaged 5.8 ypc
Wk 4 won 48%
Wk 5 lost 58% avgd 3.7 ypc
Wk 10 lost 72% avgd 4.6 ypc. Ran 11 times
Wk 11 lost 61% avgd 4.5 ypc
Wk 12 lost 73% avgd 2.8 ypc. ran 12 times
Wk 13 won 60% - The only game we won this year passing for more than 50%
Wk 14 won 49%
Wk 15 lost 64% , avgd 4.2 ypc, ran 19 times
Wk 16 lost 54% , avgd 7.1 ypc
Wk 17 won 42%

I pulled our pass / run stats for games that Wilson started this year to see how strong the correlation was between dialing back putting the game in his hands and our successes were. Above is a record of the percentage of plays that we ran that were passes.

A note. One can argue that the correlation between high pass rate and losses is due to being down big and having to throw to get back into the game or having an ineffective run game. With the exception of the final score in the GB game, most all of our games were within reach this year heading into the final qtr. And with the exception of the WFT game ( a game we only ran 12 times total - hardly enough tonget into a rhythm), Russ has had a pretty formidable rushing attack to lean on if he chose to. Yet we abandoned the run very early on. So that reasoning doesn't necessarily hold.

I added the rushing avgs for the games we passed the most to dispell the idea that we had to pass to win.

A few takeaways.

There was only one game we won when passing for more than 50% and that was the 9ers game.

For those that say the offense this year was meddled with. No offense that PC would be ok with would be as lopsided in pass to run as ours has been this year on several occassions.. and unnecessarily so. With two exceptions, we ran effectively all year despite the injuries we sustained.

For those who don't believe the passhappy attack was Russ's doing... who else would have ok'd it? Not Pete.

It's pretty factually obvious that when we don't have a balanced attack and put the ball on Russ's arm we lost this year.

And if his finger hurt, but our running game was churning at better than respectable clip, why did we have our highest passing ratio in the games immediately following his injury?

Last year Pete called for more balance and effective running to get the team back on track. When we did that this year we won. Yet he gets blasted endlessly for pushing antiquated ideas.

On the other side, when we let Russ cook this year, whether before the injury or after, we lost.

And our run game has been better than adequate, even with the crippled attack we sported. So the idea that Russ and the offense is bad because we can't run is also just patently false. Our low water mark was the WFT game. Second was the first Rams game, but at 3.7 ypc, that's still sufficient to be effective.

Looking at the stats, it's not difficult to look at this year as one where we literally threw ourselves to failure.

One could be shoehorned into being a game manager if one hands the ball to RB half the time.
One couldn't be in the hunt for MVP if one is being known as a game manager.
One could also use the pass to setup the runs, Bill Walsh used to do that, even vertical long balls when he had Greg Cook (9.4 yards per attempt, 17.5 yards per completion).

Great analysis OP!

Great analysis.

I hope RW and his camp realise that the more 'balanced' approach helps him to maximise his skillset. Combining this with some good additions on the OL and DL next year I'd expect is to be competitive in the playoffs again.

My concern is that RW and/or his team have committed too much into their 'let russ cook' narrative (or whatever slogan they use now) to turn back now. As much as RW idolises Drew Brees he just isn't the same type of QB - and that's not a bad thing, he just has a different skillset.

Hopefully PC/RW will be back next season, and JS can get some talent on the OL and DL with the huge cap space we have.

hinton":1j16s4dm said:

Great analysis.

I hope RW and his camp realise that the more 'balanced' approach helps him to maximise his skillset. Combining this with some good additions on the OL and DL next year I'd expect is to be competitive in the playoffs again.

My concern is that RW and/or his team have committed too much into their 'let russ cook' narrative (or whatever slogan they use now) to turn back now. As much as RW idolises Drew Brees he just isn't the same type of QB - and that's not a bad thing, he just has a different skillset.

Hopefully PC/RW will be back next season, and JS can get some talent on the OL and DL with the huge cap space we have.

Click to expand...

One would hope, but I think their entire MO has been to distract from the reality that he needs the running game to cover some of what hes not good at and to change the narrative to one where the 'problem' is the scheme, the coaching etc.

The entire trajectory of the franchise hinges on whether he will continue to pursue his cooking campaign or let it go and return to doing what the team needs and what brought him and the team the most success.