Interesting DVOA stats

This is interesting to me

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/d...=Newsletter&campaign_date=2022-01-11+22:15:00

So as a team we were 8th on offense, we were 7th defense, 21st and ST 5th.

we were the only team in top 10 not in the playoffs. interesting

John63":2vbjkeqo said:

This is interesting to me

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/d...=Newsletter&campaign_date=2022-01-11+22:15:00

So as a team we were 8th on offense, we were 7th defense, 21st and ST 5th.

we were the only team in top 10 not in the playoffs. interesting

Click to expand...

Just proves stats don't tell the whole story, why the on the field play and situational circumstances say a lot as well.

chris98251":1sbu4opp said:

John63":1sbu4opp said:

This is interesting to me

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/d...=Newsletter&campaign_date=2022-01-11+22:15:00

So as a team we were 8th on offense, we were 7th defense, 21st and ST 5th.

we were the only team in top 10 not in the playoffs. interesting

Click to expand...

Just proves stats don't tell the whole story, why the on the field play and situational circumstances say a lot as well.

Click to expand...

There is also a link in that that discusses how analysis early in the season may have shown how Seahawks kind of 'broke' DVOA in that our boom or bust system makes us look far more efficient than our offense really was (outside of the last two games) and that because we don't turn over the ball, we aren't getting punished by their metrics the same way other teams who perform similarly might.

In the end, the very relevant '3 and out all the time' statistic kind of explains how we can look to be 'efficient' in terms of yardage (because we get lots of yards and/or points on very few plays) but still not score that often because we give up
the ball too much.

It's kind of a hole in the DVOA formula (and, frankly, many other advanced metrics) which can overlook the flaws in our offense and our QB's style of play.

DarkVictory23":3gtgh2fp said:

chris98251":3gtgh2fp said:

John63":3gtgh2fp said:

This is interesting to me

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/d...=Newsletter&campaign_date=2022-01-11+22:15:00

So as a team we were 8th on offense, we were 7th defense, 21st and ST 5th.

we were the only team in top 10 not in the playoffs. interesting

Click to expand...

Just proves stats don't tell the whole story, why the on the field play and situational circumstances say a lot as well.

Click to expand...

There is also a link in that that discusses how analysis early in the season may have shown how Seahawks kind of 'broke' DVOA in that our boom or bust system makes us look far more efficient than our offense really was (outside of the last two games) and that because we don't turn over the ball, we aren't getting punished by their metrics the same way other teams who perform similarly might.

In the end, the very relevant '3 and out all the time' statistic kind of explains how we can look to be 'efficient' in terms of yardage (because we get lots of yards and/or points on very few plays) but still not score that often because we give up
the ball too much.

It's kind of a hole in the DVOA formula (and, frankly, many other advanced metrics) which can overlook the flaws in our offense and our QB's style of play.

Click to expand...

I mostly agree, that aside if the last 2 games are what we will see then this really does not matter

This is what happens when you take RW out of the lineup for a month. The Hawks would have made the playoffs had RW not injured his finger.

SeaWolv":bix1chq6 said:

This is what happens when you take RW out of the lineup for a month. The Hawks would have made the playoffs had RW not injured his finger.

Click to expand...

THIS^^^

John63":30kl1dt3 said:

SeaWolv":30kl1dt3 said:

This is what happens when you take RW out of the lineup for a month. The Hawks would have made the playoffs had RW not injured his finger.

Click to expand...

THIS^^^

Click to expand...

Actually, it's NOT this, unless you posted these DVOA stats for no reason.

If you read the discussion about whether Seahawks 'broke' DVOA or not that I referenced before, they go into detail that Seahawks fade in terms of offense (in particular, passing) happened BEFORE Russell's injury. Either, we think these stats 'say' something or they don't.


Again, we are higher rated in this system because of Pete's philosophy (don't turn the ball over) and Russell's style of play (very quick boom/very quick bust) that makes us seem efficient when we aren't. This system essentially doesn't fault us for the three and outs and just counts them as a 'failure' whereas other teams that have more traditional turnovers get punished.

Meanwhile, THOSE teams actually have the ball way more than our 3 and out offense does, so while these 'stats' say hey, we must be better, Russ didn't throw as many INTs! Meanwhile, having Russ try and convert a 3rd down with his arm might as well have been a TO because we sure weren't keeping the ball.

I'd be interested to see what the yards/points/etc. effect would have been if Russell's INTs increased to average but his efficiency on third down rose to average as well. My personal guess is that we'd have down better...

DarkVictory23":zkjxs6fm said:

John63":zkjxs6fm said:

SeaWolv":zkjxs6fm said:

This is what happens when you take RW out of the lineup for a month. The Hawks would have made the playoffs had RW not injured his finger.

Click to expand...

THIS^^^

Click to expand...

Actually, it's NOT this, unless you posted these DVOA stats for no reason.

Click to expand...

I was responding to OP's point that the Hawks were the only team in the top 10 that didn't make the playoffs. RW may have only missed 3.5 games but it took several more after he came back to return to form (week 11?).

chris98251":3tglzegl said:

John63":3tglzegl said:

This is interesting to me

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/d...=Newsletter&campaign_date=2022-01-11+22:15:00

So as a team we were 8th on offense, we were 7th defense, 21st and ST 5th.

we were the only team in top 10 not in the playoffs. interesting

Click to expand...

Just proves stats don't tell the whole story, why the on the field play and situational circumstances say a lot as well.

Click to expand...

Yup it's as if the media narrative never tells you the whole story, only the part you want to hear. luckily that only pertains to sports media........

SeaWolv":2ndwob65 said:

DarkVictory23":2ndwob65 said:

John63":2ndwob65 said:

SeaWolv":2ndwob65 said:

This is what happens when you take RW out of the lineup for a month. The Hawks would have made the playoffs had RW not injured his finger.

Click to expand...

THIS^^^

Click to expand...

Actually, it's NOT this, unless you posted these DVOA stats for no reason.

Click to expand...

I was responding to OP's point that the Hawks were the only team in the top 10 that didn't make the playoffs. RW may have only missed 3.5 games but it took several more after he came back to return to form (week 11?).

Click to expand...

I got you, but the issue is that Russ's downturn started before the injury.

Obviously the finger didn't help but we were on track for this kind of season before it. As I said, we look better in these stats because they don't accurately assess how damaging having so many 3 and outs is to both your offense and defense
.

DarkVictory23":2mz0g9y9 said:

SeaWolv":2mz0g9y9 said:

DarkVictory23":2mz0g9y9 said:

John63":2mz0g9y9 said:

THIS^^^

Click to expand...

Actually, it's NOT this, unless you posted these DVOA stats for no reason.

Click to expand...

I was responding to OP's point that the Hawks were the only team in the top 10 that didn't make the playoffs. RW may have only missed 3.5 games but it took several more after he came back to return to form (week 11?).

Click to expand...

I got you, but the issue is that Russ's downturn started before the injury.

Obviously the finger didn't help but we were on track for this kind of season before it. As I said, we look better in these stats because they don't accurately assess how damaging having so many 3 and outs is to both your offense and defense
.

Click to expand...

Downturn or mentality shift, he showed he can play at top end level, so not a skill set issue, it's his head that's a bigger issue.

SeaWolv":drlqlhlv said:

DarkVictory23":drlqlhlv said:

John63":drlqlhlv said:

SeaWolv":drlqlhlv said:

This is what happens when you take RW out of the lineup for a month. The Hawks would have made the playoffs had RW not injured his finger.

Click to expand...

THIS^^^

Click to expand...

Actually, it's NOT this, unless you posted these DVOA stats for no reason.

Click to expand...

I was responding to OP's point that the Hawks were the only team in the top 10 that didn't make the playoffs. RW may have only missed 3.5 games but it took several more after he came back to return to form (week 11?).

Click to expand...

THIS^^^