Draft performance over the last decade (2010 - 2019)

keasley45

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not sure if this has been posted but its a pretty interesting article from a while back.

Basically ranks the drafts over the last decade in terms of capital, return, and return on capital.

Despite the constant bashing of the front office for how seemingly poorly we draft since 2013, when it comes to what we get back in return for the number of picks we have and where we draft, we're still top 10 - 13 in the league over the last 5 years. Not the dumpster fire some claim we are.

And of course, over the last 10 years, we are league best on the strength of our early JS/PC brilliance.

Top 10 to 13 in returns isn't bad at all considering we consistently draft in the last 8 to 10 picks of the 1st round. We do wiff on our 1st rounders, but the Penny pick at least is beginning to look a lot better. Collier?? Not so much.

2021 and 2020 obviously werent included, but D Eskridge flashed well but just wasnt on the field enough. Tre Brown looks like a keeper, and the jury is still out on Forsythe . Taylor and Brooks have the potential to be cornerstones on the D for years to come. Dallas and Swain have shown they can contribute as well. Jury is still out on D Lewis, Robinson and Parkinson.

So by that count , 2020 we went 4/7 with 2 potential stars and in 2021, 2/3 with 1 potential star so far.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat- ... -2010-2019

Sorry if this was posted before.
 

John63

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keasley45":3e82wvaw said:
not sure if this has been posted but its a pretty interesting article from a while back.

Basically ranks the drafts over the last decade in terms of capital, return, and return on capital.

Despite the constant bashing of the front office for how seemingly poorly we draft since 2013, when it comes to what we get back in return for the number of picks we have and where we draft, we're still top 10 - 13 in the league over the last 5 years. Not the dumpster fire some claim we are.

And of course, over the last 10 years, we are league best on the strength of our early JS/PC brilliance.

Top 10 to 13 in returns isn't bad at all considering we consistently draft in the last 8 to 10 picks of the 1st round. We do wiff on our 1st rounders, but the Penny pick at least is beginning to look a lot better. Collier?? Not so much.

2021 and 2020 obviously werent included, but D Eskridge flashed well but just wasnt on the field enough. Tre Brown looks like a keeper, and the jury is still out on Forsythe . Taylor and Brooks have the potential to be cornerstones on the D for years to come. Dallas and Swain have shown they can contribute as well. Jury is still out on D Lewis, Robinson and Parkinson.

So by that count , 2020 we went 4/7 with 2 potential stars and in 2021, 2/3 with 1 potential star so far.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat- ... -2010-2019

Sorry if this was posted before.

It's some cool data but as they allude to seattles overall rating is nostered by 2010-2012 specifically 2012 were they had the top 2 best players. Outside of that they have been avg to below avg to bad. Which is what most of us have said. Also do yo the fact they tend to drop back and get more picks in round 3 Nd back all it takes is one hit for them to look good. Forget the 9 bad ones the 1 good one makes the numbers look better than they are.

Name me outside of Lockett, dk and our punter any A level talent they drafted since 2015 to 2019? Juries put on 2020 and 2021 It would be real hard. Maybe clark. The rest our avg or worse and lost n

Here is a link to all our picks [url=https://www.pro-football-refe...ww.pro-football-reference.com/ ... /draft.htm[/url]


I count 49 lick from 2015-2019
I count 3 top talent that are still here.


That's 6% that's not good.

Maybe 2 B talent but not sure yet.

Now I will say 2020-2021 might have been better we will see.
 
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keasley45

keasley45

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According to their data taking out 2012 and going on the last 5 years, we were top 13 and top 10.

I was focusing on the last 5 years, excluding Pete's first 3 drafts.
 

oldhawkfan

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According to this they are in the top third of the league in drafting. For the past 10 years they have made the playoffs most of the time. The playoffs feature the top third of the teams in the league. So based on that alone, it must equate to the fact that they are drafting ok. Or at least better than 2/3 of the rest of the league. The problem with this fan base and probably most others, is that if a drafted player isn't a star then he is a bust. What percentage of drafted players regardless of round last more than 3 years. What percentage actually become stars or even servicable guys. My guess is way lower on all of these than most know or admit to.

I'd really like to see a league wide breakdown of the last 10 years of drafting and where each team falls in acquiring talent and their respective team success. I suspect that some on .net would be surprised if not actually dissapointed to find that the Seahawks are better at this than they are willing to admit. Winning in the NFL is hard. Assessing talent is hard and certainly a crapshoot at best.
 

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SI has an article that uses a ton of metrics breaking down draft success and they had Seattle around 20th or a little lower which matches just a general look at it.

Colin Cowherd said a scout contact reached out to him who worked with Pete/John. He said the scout loved both guys as people but the problem was especially early in drafts John would lean on Pete and not the scout team and it lead to a few terrible picks. I'm guessing Collier is one of them because Pete demanded a dlineman instead of taking who the scouts want. That is not a good situation and should never happen. He made it sound like it's happened a few times where the scouting team wanted someone different than what Pete wanted but Pete won and they were costly mistakes.
 

toffee

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From the perspective as a 12, I would say that few became stars in the past 4-5 years, until we hit DK. How many of our draftees played in probowls? named all-star? kind of hard to get really excited when none of our guys gained national recognitions.
 
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keasley45

keasley45

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toffee":3ep1ij7p said:
From the perspective as a 12, I would say that few became stars in the past 4-5 years, until we hit DK. How many of our draftees played in probowls? named all-star? kind of hard to get really excited when none of our guys gained national recognitions.

I agree ... to a degree. But I can't name but maybe 3 players on the Patriots right now, and it's been that way for a while. They're an organization that gets players that fit their system well, but aren't necessarily world beaters. And they are right back in the thick of competition in the AFC. We have had a similar philosophy since Pete got here.

And I think some of our talent is just playing elsewhere, like Frank Clark and J Reed.

And when you look at the guys we've picked recently, and the crap the FO took for taking them... guys like Taylor and Brooks... or even Penny, now. Damien Lewis received pretty high praise when he played on the right side. D Eskridge looks every bit as explosive as advertised. He was just unlucky. Tre Brown is a flat out baller, and F Swain is making the most of his opportunitues.

Then there's the 'who dat' crew on defense that we were forced to field due the injuries we sustained over the last half of the year. I think they played reasonably well and offer some assurance that we have decent depth.

So are we great? No. But neither are most other teams that end up picking around where we do.

No doubt though that misses like Collier hurt for a while. And we've had a few.
 

AgentDib

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Every team has a ton of busts which is why stockpiling draft capital is so important. If we don't have an extra 7th round pick in 2018 then we wouldn't have drafted Chris Carson. A large part of the reason why people think our track record at the top of the draft is poor is that we have taken very few shots and so a little bit of unluckiness (McDowell and Penny's injuries) really stands out.

Much of our draft capital problem is due to NFL forced parity, where our history of success is punished with low draft pick selections. We can't do anything about this and it isn't really worth complaining about; parity has been very good for the NFL over the years.

However, a large part of our draft capital problem is entirely self inflicted and in my view this has been our main issue as a franchise recently.

1) The team loves to trade picks for impact ready starters which is a benefit in the short term. It's a hindrance in the long-term, as the pick comes with 4-5 years of a cheap rookie contract while we tend to trade for players that are due for a big payday. Trading for a player who wants on a big payday on the hope that we can extend them is a bad idea; either it completely busts like Richardson and Clowney or we end up paying the player a huge sum that probably would have landed them in free agency any way.

2) We haven't capitalized on the compensatory pick formula. The problem here is that waiting until the deadline in free agency in order to maximize draft capital in future years doesn't seem to square with Pete's compete all the time philosophy. But the front office needs to play the bad cop here and make sure we land picks when we're losing players to FA and are in line for them.

3) We haven't traded down enough. If the front office truly feels that the range from #20-#50 is fairly comparable then they need to get the deals done to trade to the bottom of that range. We keep hearing about draft day deals that fall through at last minute, but there are teams who move up every year and the FO's job is to execute these trades.
 

themunn

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I think it's interesting that the 2019 draft is considered comparable to the awful 2013 and 2014 drafts, despite the fact that in 2019 we have Metcalf, Homer, Barton and Amadi who have all played significant time, plus Blair (sadly injured), Collier and Haynes who've all played reasonable amounts.

Those 2013 and 2014 drafts were brutal in comparison. And for anybody interested Scot Mccloughan was the chief scout until 2 weeks before the 2014 NFL draft, so if you give him credit for 2010-2013, he has to take fair share of the blame for both of these too.
 

ivotuk

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themunn":13xra9wq said:
I think it's interesting that the 2019 draft is considered comparable to the awful 2013 and 2014 drafts, despite the fact that in 2019 we have Metcalf, Homer, Barton and Amadi who have all played significant time, plus Blair (sadly injured), Collier and Haynes who've all played reasonable amounts.

Those 2013 and 2014 drafts were brutal in comparison. And for anybody interested Scot Mccloughan was the chief scout until 2 weeks before the 2014 NFL draft, so if you give him credit for 2010-2013, he has to take fair share of the blame for both of these too.

The reason Scott can't keep a job is because he's an alcoholic, like me. The main difference is I don't practice my disease anymore.

I read an article a few years back after SF had fired him and he was sober and trying to get back in to scouting, so he opened up in the article.

After reading that, I went back and looked at drafts he was involved in, and was not impressed. Don't know why people think he's good

As far as I'm concerned, the early drafts were successful because Pete had just been in College ball for years, recruiting, game planning against certain players, and he knew what he wanted. Add to that, Schneider bag just come from a very successful Green Bay team run by Ted Thompson.

The Packers had injury after injury after injury, but still win the Superbowl because they were so freaking deep!

I think JS has slipped a little, maybe letting others influence picks when he had a ton of them. But last year only a couple of picks, and he nails it!!

Tre Brown, 4th round would be starting now if not for his injury. He was intercepting balls in training camp and getting Pete excited. Dee Eskeridge was a double edged pick IMHO. I think our new OC knew that McVay wanted Dee, so we just the Rams to, forcing them to spend a 2nd round pick on a fast but small WR.

And if Stone hits...
 

LTH

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keasley45":3brozxp7 said:
toffee":3brozxp7 said:
From the perspective as a 12, I would say that few became stars in the past 4-5 years, until we hit DK. How many of our draftees played in probowls? named all-star? kind of hard to get really excited when none of our guys gained national recognitions.

I agree ... to a degree. But I can't name but maybe 3 players on the Patriots right now, and it's been that way for a while. They're an organization that gets players that fit their system well, but aren't necessarily world beaters. And they are right back in the thick of competition in the AFC. We have had a similar philosophy since Pete got here.

And I think some of our talent is just playing elsewhere, like Frank Clark and J Reed.

And when you look at the guys we've picked recently, and the crap the FO took for taking them... guys like Taylor and Brooks... or even Penny, now. Damien Lewis received pretty high praise when he played on the right side. D Eskridge looks every bit as explosive as advertised. He was just unlucky. Tre Brown is a flat out baller, and F Swain is making the most of his opportunitues.

Then there's the 'who dat' crew on defense that we were forced to field due the injuries we sustained over the last half of the year. I think they played reasonably well and offer some assurance that we have decent depth.

So are we great? No. But neither are most other teams that end up picking around where we do.

No doubt though that misses like Collier hurt for a while. And we've had a few.

Thats exactly why I think this team is well coached... they can compete with anyone with average players for the most part


LTH
 
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