Week 13 (Way Too Soon) AFC Playoff Picture

Polaris

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Welcome Everyone,

This is the companion article for the NFC playoff picture posted in NFL Nation to show the AFC Playoff Picture. Week 13 is way too soon, but this year we actually have playoff scenarios during Thanksgiving Day weekend! Like always, if you want to see how Seattle fits in all this, see my Week 13 (Way Too Soon) NFC Playoff Picture.

Let's get started!

AFC East
As usual, this is the New England Patriot's division and everyone else lives in it, but at least Buffalo is decent this year.

Team--------------Record----------Conf-----Div-----Next Five
New England -- 10-1 ------------- 6-1 ------ 4-0 - @Houston, Kansas City, @Cincinnati, Buffalo, Miami
Buffalo ------------ 8-3 ------------- 6-2 ------ 3-1 - @Dallas, Baltimore, @Pitt, @New England, NY Jets
NY Jets ----------- 4-7 ------------- 1-6 ------ 0-4 - @Cincinnati, Miami, @Baltimore, Pitt, @Buffalo
Miami ------------- 2-9 -------------- 2-7 ----- 1-3 - Philly, @NY Jets, @NY Giants, Cincy, @New England

Clinching Scenarios: New England can't quite clinch the division title, but they can clinch a playoff spot with 1) A Win + 2) An Oakland loss/tie OR Pittsburgh loss/tie. New England can also make the playoffs with a tie and a loss by two of the three following teams (Oakland, Pittsburgh, or Indy).

Elimination Scenarios: Miami has already been eliminated from the AFC East. If Miami loses or ties, they are eliminated from the playoffs since two 6-5 teams play each other and one has to win (or both tie).

AFC South
This is a division that no one seems to want. Houston is currently in the lead but all the teams are within a game or two of each other and all have been, to put it kindly, mediocre.

Team----------Record--------------Conf-----Div-----Next Five
Houston ----- 7-4 ----------------- 6-2 ------ 3-1 - New England, Denver, @Tenn, @Tampa Bay, Tenn
Indy ----------- 6-5 ----------------- 5-5 ------ 3-1 - Tenn, @Tampa Bay, @New Orleans, Carolina, @Jax
Tenn ---------- 6-5 ----------------- 4-4 ------ 1-2 - @Indy, @Oakland, Houston, New Orleans, @Houston
Jacksonville- 4-7 ----------------- 4-5 ------ 1-4 - Tampa Bay, LA Chargers, @Oakland, @Atlanta, Indy

Clinching Scenarios: None

Elimination Scenarios: None

AFC North
Baltimore has become the class of the division and quite possibly the class of the entire NFL right now. Even so they can't quite clinch either the division or a playoff spot quite yet, but are the overwhelming favorite in this division.

Team---------Record--------------Conf-----Div-----Next Five
Baltimore --- 9-2 ------------------ 6-2 ----- 3-1 - San Francisco, @Buffalo, NY Jets, @Cleveland, Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh -- 6-5 ------------------ 5-3 ----- 2-2 - Cleveland, @Arizona, Buffalo, @NY Jets, Baltimore
Browns ----- 5-6 ------------------ 5-3 ------ 2-0 - @Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, @Arizona, Baltimore, @Cincinnati
e-Cincy ---- 0-11 ------------------ 0-7------ 0-4 - NY Jets, @Cleveland, New England, @Miami, Cleveland

Clinching Scenarios: None. Baltimore can nearly clinch the division title but not quite. Pittsburgh could still mathematically catch them on the third tiebreak.

Elimination Scenarios: Cincinnati has (obviously) already been eliminated from the playoffs. No other team in the AFC North can be eliminated this week.

AFC West
A few weeks ago, the Kansas City Chiefs looked to be running way with this division, but now Oakland is still fighting for it. How Oakland responds to it's recent drubbing will tell much of the tale.

Team---------Record--------Conf-----Div-----Next Five
Kan. City --- 7-4 -------------- 5-3 ----- 3-0 - Oakland, @New England, Denver, @Chicago, LA Chargers
Oakland ---- 6-5 -------------- 4-3 ----- 2-1 - @KC, Tenn, Jacksonville, @LA Chargers, @Denver
Chargers --- 4-7 -------------- 2-6 ----- 0-3 - @Denver, @Jax, Minnesota, Oakland, @Kansas City
Denver ----- 3-8 -------------- 3-5 ------ 1-2 - Chargers, @Houston, @Kansas City, Detroit, Oakland

Clinching Scenarios: None although if KC wins they have a 2 game lead over oakland and owns the divisional head to head.

Elimination: Denver can be eliminated from the AFC west with a KC win or tie OR a Denver loss or tie.

Whew. I hope all of you find this useful.
 

SantaClaraHawk

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Thanks for doing this Polaris. I find both this and the NFC one extremely useful, especially when it comes down to the elimination/clincher scenarios. You have a way of explaining it that's very easy to understand.
 
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