Hello everyone,
This is the companion topic to the NFC Playoff Picture which you can find here. With the break up of the Patriot's dominance in the AFC, the picture is wide open this year. I am going to assume that the Bills win in week 16 which as we speak looks to be a very safe bet.
As always I will go from east to west, and I will use the following codes: z-home field advantage/first round bye, y-division winner, x-clinched a playoff spot, e-eliminated. I will also sometimes follow this with a letter to specify specific seed(s) clinched.
AFC East:
Team Record Conference Record Division Record Next Opponent
Buffalo-y3 12-3 9-2 5-0 Miami
Miami 10-5 7-4 3-2 Buffalo
New England-e 6-8 5-6 2-3 NY Jets
NY Jets-e 2-13 1-10 0-5 New England
Playoff clinching and elimination scenarios:
Buffalo clinches the #2 seed with: 1) A win OR 2) Pittsburgh loss OR 3) Tie + Pittsburgh Tie
Miami Clinches a Playoff Spot with: 1) Win OR 2) Raven Loss OR 3) Browns Loss OR 4) Indy Loss OR 5) A TIE + any one of the following (Raven Tie, Browns Tie, Indy Tie, or Tenn Loss) If none of this happens, then Miami is eliminated.
Reasons: The Buffalo part is self explanatory especially given their head to head win vs Pittsburgh. As for Miami, they certainly have the inside track but there is a deer trail that has them missing the playoffs at 10 wins.
AFC North
Team Record Conference Record Division Record Next Opponent
Pittsburgh-y3 12-3 9-2 4-1 Browns
Ravens 10-5 6-5 3-2 Bengals
Browns 10-5 6-5 2-3 Pittsburgh
Bengals-e 4-10-1 4-7 1-4 Ravens
Playoff Clinching and Elimination Scenarios:
Pittsburgh clinches the #2 seed with: 1) Win + Buffalo loss or tie OR 2) Tie + Buffalo loss
Ravens clinch a playoff spot with: 1) Win OR 2) Browns Loss OR 3) Indy Loss OR 4) Tie + any one of the following {Miami loss, Tenn loss, Browns Tie, Indy Tie}. If none of these happen, then the Ravens are eliminated.
Browns clinch a playoff spot with: 1)Win OR 2) Indy Loss OR 3) Tenn Loss + Ravens Win or Tie OR 4) Browns Tie + any one of the following {Raven loss, Miami loss, Tenn loss, Indy tie, Tenn Loss+Raven Win+Miami Win}
Reasons: The Pittsburgh picture is clear enough and I explained it already with Buffalo. The Ravens have a head to head tiebreak over the Browns, the Browns have a head to head tiebreak over Indy, and Miami has a one game edge in conference record currently. This is why the wildcard ordering and scenarios are such a mess.
AFC South
Team Record Conference Record Division Record Next Opponent
Tenn 10-5 7-4 4-1 Houston
Indy 10-5 6-5 3-2 Jax
Houston-e 4-11 3-8 2-3 Tenn
Jax-e 1-14 1-10 1-4 Indy
Playoff Clinching and Elimination Scenarios:
Tenn clinches the division and #4 seed with: 1) A Win OR 2) Indy Loss OR 3) Tie + Indy Tie
Tenn clinches a playoff spot with: 1) Ravens Loss OR 2) Miami Loss OR 3) Tie + any one of the following {Browns loss, Miami Tie, Ravens Tie}
Tenn is eliminated if neither of the above two things happen.
Indy clinches the division and #4 seed with: A win + Tenn loss or tie (or tie + Tenn loss)
Indy can clinch a playoff spot with: 1) A win + any one of the following {Ravens Loss or tie, Browns Loss or tie, Miami loss or tie} OR 2) A TIE + any one of the following {Ravens loss, Miami loss, Browns loss}
Indy is eliminated with: 1) A loss or 2) none of the following scenarios complete.
Reasons: Tenn has the advantage in both division and conference record over Indy which is why going into week 17, Indy is the one team on the outside looking in. Of all the teams in the complicated AFC picture, Indy is the 10 win team that is most likely to miss a berth. In fact in the AFC it is entirely possible for an 11 win Indy to miss the playoffs.
AFC West:
Team Record Conference Record Division Record Next Opponent
Kansas City-z 14-1 10-1 4-1 LA Chargers
Los Vegas-e 7-8 5-6 3-2 Denver
LA Chargers-e 6-9 5-6 2-3 Kansas City
Denver-e 5-10 4-7 1-4 Los Vegas
Playoff and Elimination Scenarios:
None. Seriously Kansas City has the the seed all clinched up, and everyone else is eliminated.
This is the companion topic to the NFC Playoff Picture which you can find here. With the break up of the Patriot's dominance in the AFC, the picture is wide open this year. I am going to assume that the Bills win in week 16 which as we speak looks to be a very safe bet.
As always I will go from east to west, and I will use the following codes: z-home field advantage/first round bye, y-division winner, x-clinched a playoff spot, e-eliminated. I will also sometimes follow this with a letter to specify specific seed(s) clinched.
AFC East:
Team Record Conference Record Division Record Next Opponent
Buffalo-y3 12-3 9-2 5-0 Miami
Miami 10-5 7-4 3-2 Buffalo
New England-e 6-8 5-6 2-3 NY Jets
NY Jets-e 2-13 1-10 0-5 New England
Playoff clinching and elimination scenarios:
Buffalo clinches the #2 seed with: 1) A win OR 2) Pittsburgh loss OR 3) Tie + Pittsburgh Tie
Miami Clinches a Playoff Spot with: 1) Win OR 2) Raven Loss OR 3) Browns Loss OR 4) Indy Loss OR 5) A TIE + any one of the following (Raven Tie, Browns Tie, Indy Tie, or Tenn Loss) If none of this happens, then Miami is eliminated.
Reasons: The Buffalo part is self explanatory especially given their head to head win vs Pittsburgh. As for Miami, they certainly have the inside track but there is a deer trail that has them missing the playoffs at 10 wins.
AFC North
Team Record Conference Record Division Record Next Opponent
Pittsburgh-y3 12-3 9-2 4-1 Browns
Ravens 10-5 6-5 3-2 Bengals
Browns 10-5 6-5 2-3 Pittsburgh
Bengals-e 4-10-1 4-7 1-4 Ravens
Playoff Clinching and Elimination Scenarios:
Pittsburgh clinches the #2 seed with: 1) Win + Buffalo loss or tie OR 2) Tie + Buffalo loss
Ravens clinch a playoff spot with: 1) Win OR 2) Browns Loss OR 3) Indy Loss OR 4) Tie + any one of the following {Miami loss, Tenn loss, Browns Tie, Indy Tie}. If none of these happen, then the Ravens are eliminated.
Browns clinch a playoff spot with: 1)Win OR 2) Indy Loss OR 3) Tenn Loss + Ravens Win or Tie OR 4) Browns Tie + any one of the following {Raven loss, Miami loss, Tenn loss, Indy tie, Tenn Loss+Raven Win+Miami Win}
Reasons: The Pittsburgh picture is clear enough and I explained it already with Buffalo. The Ravens have a head to head tiebreak over the Browns, the Browns have a head to head tiebreak over Indy, and Miami has a one game edge in conference record currently. This is why the wildcard ordering and scenarios are such a mess.
AFC South
Team Record Conference Record Division Record Next Opponent
Tenn 10-5 7-4 4-1 Houston
Indy 10-5 6-5 3-2 Jax
Houston-e 4-11 3-8 2-3 Tenn
Jax-e 1-14 1-10 1-4 Indy
Playoff Clinching and Elimination Scenarios:
Tenn clinches the division and #4 seed with: 1) A Win OR 2) Indy Loss OR 3) Tie + Indy Tie
Tenn clinches a playoff spot with: 1) Ravens Loss OR 2) Miami Loss OR 3) Tie + any one of the following {Browns loss, Miami Tie, Ravens Tie}
Tenn is eliminated if neither of the above two things happen.
Indy clinches the division and #4 seed with: A win + Tenn loss or tie (or tie + Tenn loss)
Indy can clinch a playoff spot with: 1) A win + any one of the following {Ravens Loss or tie, Browns Loss or tie, Miami loss or tie} OR 2) A TIE + any one of the following {Ravens loss, Miami loss, Browns loss}
Indy is eliminated with: 1) A loss or 2) none of the following scenarios complete.
Reasons: Tenn has the advantage in both division and conference record over Indy which is why going into week 17, Indy is the one team on the outside looking in. Of all the teams in the complicated AFC picture, Indy is the 10 win team that is most likely to miss a berth. In fact in the AFC it is entirely possible for an 11 win Indy to miss the playoffs.
AFC West:
Team Record Conference Record Division Record Next Opponent
Kansas City-z 14-1 10-1 4-1 LA Chargers
Los Vegas-e 7-8 5-6 3-2 Denver
LA Chargers-e 6-9 5-6 2-3 Kansas City
Denver-e 5-10 4-7 1-4 Los Vegas
Playoff and Elimination Scenarios:
None. Seriously Kansas City has the the seed all clinched up, and everyone else is eliminated.
