Fade wrote:Adding on here.
Since 2000, 70% of QBs taken in the 1st rd have been busts. The numbers point to this being a disaster especially when I look at the prospects available at 3.
Mac Jones the likely pick is not worth such an aggressive trade up. All the QBs that have "hit" in recent years have the ability to create and extend when the initial play doesn't work. Mac Jones is not that player.
Fields and Lance will have disappointing careers. They represent the other end of the extreme/spectrum. They will not be able to run an NFL offense with any sort of consistency, but will make splash plays with their legs from time to time.
Kyle Trask who will go in the 2nd round or later will have a better career than all of them. No need to burn 3 Firsts and a 3rd here, unless the Jets stand pat with Darnold and they come away with Zach Wilson.
So...here's my thing.
1) Most of the QBs you see who get taken in the 1st round, especially the top 10, are drafted by bad teams. There is a reason they had those picks.
This is a different animal. For as much as many of you can't stand Kyle, most of you would acknowledge he's one of the best OCs in the NFL. This won't be a rookie OC or a defensive coach molding this guys career. I watched Alex Smith nearly get ruined by 5 different OCs in 5 years. This rookie will have Kyle and he'll have him for a LONG time.
That doesn't mean its not risky...but you have to look inside those numbers to examine WHY a guy busts, not just that he does. The 49ers already have 50% of the equasion for molding a young QB. That can't be said for all 1st round QBs.
2) I REALLY think this pick will NOT be Mac Jones. Part of that is admittedly because I don't want it to be, but it also just doesn't make any sense.
People are SOOOOO enamored with thinking that Kyle just loves Cousins and QBs like Cousins. People seem to think that he will bypass athletic QBs for unathletic pocket passers.
The truth is that there is SOME truth to that...but here's the part you guys are missing...he does that and takes those pocket passers later in the draft. He doesn't expend premium picks on unathletic passers. Its like RB...he has one of the best run schemes in the NFL, but how many high picks have you seen him use on RBs? Its about getting the most out of the scheme and NOT use those premium picks on the position.
Kyle could have had Cousins in his first year if he were willing to give up a high pick. He could have had him in FA the following year. That's not what he's looking for.
If Kyle is going WAY up in the draft and going after a QB, he is NOT doing so for a guy who is marginally better than the one he has or a 3rd-5th round guy he can get later. Kyle passed on Mahomes and Watson to get Beathard in rd 3. He was there when Washington took Cousins in rd 5. He coached RGIII to a rookie of the year season before RGIII tanked bad post-injury and without the Shanahans.
Who did his dad win with? His dad won a SB as an OC with Steve Young and in Denver as a HC with John Elway. SF has been all in this off-season on Watson. Seriously, go back and read his comments after the 49ers lost to the Bills. Look at what he said about Josh Allen.
People. Mac Jones ain't the pick. The people that are saying so aren't seeing the whole picture.
I'm pretty sure its WIlson/Fields/Lance depending on whom is there. Kyle is looking for off the charts talent, not Mac Jones.