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49ers trading up to #3 pick with Dolphins.

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  • OK...so thins isn't pointed at anyone in this thread. I just kinda feel like I gotta get this off my chest...

    ...just like in politics, the field of Sports Journalism has gone in the krapper. In a big way.

    Why? 24 hour news, Twitter, and SOOOO many more people trying to make a name for themselves. This situation with the Niners at 3 and Mac Jones, Justin Fields, etc is a great illustration of it, but it is hardly the only example.

    For the purposes of this post tho, that's the example I'm going to use.

    To start, I have no idea who the Niners are going to pick. My head tells me Justin Field or Trey Lance, but it could very well be Mac Jones. That isn't the point though. Its the cycle. I'll illustrate now. This isn't an exact timeline but just an example.

    Day 1) 49ers make trade for third pick. The next day they are at Mac Jones SECOND Pro Day. Media immediately assumes that Kyle ONLY like slow, immobile, pocket passers despite the fact that his father won with Steve Young and John Elway. Media misses the fact that Adam Peters and MIKE Shanahan attended Mac Jones FIRST Pro Day.

    Day 2) In a press conference, Kyle explains that he didn't want to go out to pro days because it would tip their hand. He also confirms that they will be going to Mac Jones second Pro Day that's on the same day as Justin Fields FIRST pro day. He also says that is because Justin Fields agent, whom Kyle mentions BY NAME, told them that Justin would have a second Pro Day. Who is at Justin Fields FIRST pro day? Adam Peters and MIKE Shanahan. Ya see that. Its very easily explained...Mac won't have a second workout for Kyle to see. Justin will. That's why he went to see Mac.

    Day 3) Media spinning like crazy. People now "will be shocked" if Mac Jones isn't the pick. Kyle isn't talking, the 49ers don't leak, but there are several people now who "will be shocked" if Mac isn't the pick.

    Day 4) Now the media turns. Why is Mac Jones the pick at 3? What's wrong with Justin Fields. "Is this the classic black QB issue?". "How in the world does Mac Jones surpass Fields?".

    Day 5) Justin Fields now falls to the 5th QB in mock drafts and now every show is about "why is Fields falling? This is a great injustice".

    Day 6) Word comes out from local beat writer who says that Fields will have a pro day on the 14th and that the 49ers will attend. He says this based on the interview way back on Day 2, but the National Media jumps all over it as if something has now shifted. ooooooooo...intrigue. Sigh.

    Day 7) The same people who said they "would be shocked" id Mac Jones isn't the pick NOW says "well the 49ers "have an open mind". Another says "Its probably 50% Jones and 50% someone else".

    Day 8) Now the media story is that the 49ers might no know who they want and that they might be confused. After all, they wanted Mac and now they aren't so sure. We know that, right? We've been hearing that for days. Something has changed. Lets have a segment on ESPN to discuss it.


    Its exhausting.

    Mac Jones might be the pick. I don't think so, but its certainly possible. What drives me crazy is the media echo chamber that creates, recycles, passes as fact, then switches and is never held accountable for the HOURS they spend in the media discussing matters that are NEVER a matter of fact.

    I'm listening to local radio yesterday and there is a guy on that I can't stand, Jim Kozimor, saying on the radio that the 49ers are a leaky ship, leaking like crazy, believes every rumor, thinks the 49ers are infighting over the pick...ALL based on media speculation.

    If you read ANYONE who ACTUALLY covers the 49ers, they will tell you THEY AREN'T LEAKING. Its ALL speculation.

    That's my issue...people taking rumor as fact and then running with and building on it when there is no foundation to the rumor to begin with. Its how you fill a 24 hours sports new program, fill air time on the radio, and get hits on your twitter feed.
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  • Fade wrote:
    Marvin49 wrote:
    Oh....I’m about 99% convinced the Niners are leaking Mac Jones with no intent on taking him. My guess is the really want Lance or Fields and do t want someone jumping in front of them to take that player.

    I think in the end the Jets take Wilson at 2. If you put a gun to my head my guess would e Niners take Lance.

    As for Jimmy, I honestly believe they won’t settle for a 2. It’s not because they are playing hard ball or actually think they end up with a 1, it’s because I think they want to give Lance a year to learn.


    They have no need to leak that, though. They're sitting at the 3rd pick. They don't have to fool anyone to create a smokescreen to get their guy. It makes no sense.

    I think a likely theory is Kyle wants Mac Jones, and the Front Office would like to take a higher ceiling player with the 3rd pick. We'll just have to wait and see who wins out. Lance, Fields, and Mac Jones will all disappoint at the next level so it doesn't really matter anyway. :D

    I see a lot of QB 1st round busts in this draft, and teams are going to get gun shy in future years due to the ramifications of this draft. Where going forward only 1 or 2 QBs will be taken in the 1st. Especially in the top half of the 1st. Potentially 4 QBs going in the top 10 is nuts. These guys are way overvalued, and the teams that take them are going to feel it.


    I actually agree with you.

    I used to think the 49ers are leaking, but the more noise I hear about it, the more I think they aren't leaking anything at all and the rumors have taken a life of their own in an echo chamber. You are starting to see some of that with people wgho were so sure just a few days ago beginning to backtrack a bit.

    At this point, I think the 49ers aren't talking and the 49ers trade to 3 is the biggest story...so people are now left to invent a story because they don't have any information. Its just a great big Echo Chamber and really has nothing to do with what the 49ers will actually do.

    Shefter is backtracking. I heard Gil Brandt last night say his sources have no idea who they will pick.

    Maybe Mac is the pick. I have no idea and won't pretend I know. I also believe tho that NOBODY but Kyle and John and maybe a few at the top know and everyone else is guessing.

    Alot if this is based on the ASSUMPTION that Kirk Cousins is his prototype QB. Clearly then, he will trade up and take a QB who reminds him of Kirk, right? If he wanted Kirk he could have had him.

    Moreover his dad won with Elway and Young. This narrative that he only wants immpbile pocket passers is completely false. Thats what he's ended up with because they don't invest a premium pick on the position.

    They were going after Watson all offseason. Does he fit the Cousins mold?

    Its all BS. Nobody will know until the 19th when the pick is in. Anyone who pretends they do is lyin'.
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  • I would think the best measuring stick is to look at whom the Shanahan's have had as QB's, Ryan, they went after Garoppolo, He has had RGIII as well but that was not the best fit for what he was doing, brought another dynamic but was not the mechanical dissecting type QB, Mike his dad liked that aspect as he had some of that with Elway who was not in his prime when he took over the Broncos but changed to a more pocket passer.

    So look for a tall smart guy with a strong arm that isn't a spotlight seeker. Someone who is accurate over a physical specimen. Oh and also have a somewhat compact throwing motion to get the ball out, someone who can handle pressure and is pretty much unflappable.
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  • chris98251 wrote:I would think the best measuring stick is to look at whom the Shanahan's have had as QB's, Ryan, they went after Garoppolo, He has had RGIII as well but that was not the best fit for what he was doing, brought another dynamic but was not the mechanical dissecting type QB, Mike his dad liked that aspect as he had some of that with Elway who was not in his prime when he took over the Broncos but changed to a more pocket passer.

    So look for a tall smart guy with a strong arm that isn't a spotlight seeker. Someone who is accurate over a physical specimen. Oh and also have a somewhat compact throwing motion to get the ball out, someone who can handle pressure and is pretty much unflappable.


    RG III was forced upon them by ownership. a compromise was struck, Shanny would agree on the RG III deal if they could also take Cousins or Wilson in the middle rounds. RG III is not Kyle's type. He wants a guy that can execute his plays that he spends all week scheming up. He'll gladly take mobility as a bonus, but he wants guys that can process information quickly, and get the ball out on time to the right guy. Like Cousins and Matt Ryan. Fields isn't the next Steve Young, not even close. But they may have to go that direction to justify giving up so much.

    I have no idea who the 9ers will draft, but Kyle damn near looked like he was gonna cry at Mac Jones unimpressive pro-day when the camera cut to him. (He traded up to number 3 for this!) :D
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  • OK...couple things on the last few posts.

    Shanahan needs a QB who can play from the pocket. There is no question of that. He does NOT need a QB who can ONLY play from the pocket.

    Yes, the QBs he's had have been Ryan (who was already there), RGIII (who had BY FAR his most successful season with Kyle), Garoppolo (who took him mainly because he was offered at a low price), and Cousins who was selected in the 5th round.

    If Kyle is gonna take a QB, he's typically going to find a guy he likes later on in the draft who can play from the pocket and doesn't possess elite traits. Look at what the Shanahans do at RB. Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, Alfred Morris, Davonta Freeman, Raheem Mostert...all of those guys had success as RBs in the Shanahan system. The only one picked high was Portis (2nd round) and they promptly traded him for Champ Bailey. Why? Because they think they can scheme offense. They don't take RBs high.

    Other than RGIII, the same holds for QBs. Slow, lumbering, pocket passers are available later in the draft.

    IMO, what he is NOT going to do is trade up to the 3rd pick, pay 2 more first to get there, and take the guy with no elite traits. The whole point is scheme over personnel.

    That's not what Kyle is looking for right now. Something has changed. He wouldn't have done this before. The only time the Shanahans (and to be clear, his Dad is a part of this...he's been to all the QB pro days) have traded up like this was for RGIII. RGIII was rookie of the year. His career fell apart because he got hurt and then had an attitude. Team chose the QB over the coaching staff and RGIII proceeded to tank.

    Kyles watched Wilson. He's watched Kyler. He's seen the Rams get Stafford. He saw Mahomes rip him up at the end of the SB.

    Kyle is looking for a guy with elite traits. Why do you think the Niners were in on Watson? If they really wanted a guy like Cousins, they could have traded for him in his first year in SF. I mean, hell, they could have him NOW if they gave up the 3rd pick. They could have done if for 12.

    Pay attention to Kyles comments after they lost to Buffalo this season. Kyle is looking for an athlete. He's not going to...and never was, going to pick Mac Jones. All this noise is speculation based on the types of QBs he's had in the past. Its old information. If that's what he wanted he could keep Jimmy or go get Cousins. He wouldn't have to farm out the future for Mac freakin Jones.

    My bet is Lance, tho I like Fields as well. Longshot? Zach Wilson. I know all the noise says Jets take Wilson and they very well might, but the noise also said until a few days ago Mac was a lock...and I don't buy it.
    Marvin49
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  • Marvin49 wrote:OK...couple things on the last few posts.

    Shanahan needs a QB who can play from the pocket. There is no question of that. He does NOT need a QB who can ONLY play from the pocket.

    Yes, the QBs he's had have been Ryan (who was already there), RGIII (who had BY FAR his most successful season with Kyle), Garoppolo (who took him mainly because he was offered at a low price), and Cousins who was selected in the 5th round.

    If Kyle is gonna take a QB, he's typically going to find a guy he likes later on in the draft who can play from the pocket and doesn't possess elite traits. Look at what the Shanahans do at RB. Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, Alfred Morris, Davonta Freeman, Raheem Mostert...all of those guys had success as RBs in the Shanahan system. The only one picked high was Portis (2nd round) and they promptly traded him for Champ Bailey. Why? Because they think they can scheme offense. They don't take RBs high.

    Other than RGIII, the same holds for QBs. Slow, lumbering, pocket passers are available later in the draft.

    IMO, what he is NOT going to do is trade up to the 3rd pick, pay 2 more first to get there, and take the guy with no elite traits. The whole point is scheme over personnel.

    That's not what Kyle is looking for right now. Something has changed. He wouldn't have done this before. The only time the Shanahans (and to be clear, his Dad is a part of this...he's been to all the QB pro days) have traded up like this was for RGIII. RGIII was rookie of the year. His career fell apart because he got hurt and then had an attitude. Team chose the QB over the coaching staff and RGIII proceeded to tank.

    Kyles watched Wilson. He's watched Kyler. He's seen the Rams get Stafford. He saw Mahomes rip him up at the end of the SB.

    Kyle is looking for a guy with elite traits. Why do you think the Niners were in on Watson? If they really wanted a guy like Cousins, they could have traded for him in his first year in SF. I mean, hell, they could have him NOW if they gave up the 3rd pick. They could have done if for 12.

    Pay attention to Kyles comments after they lost to Buffalo this season. Kyle is looking for an athlete. He's not going to...and never was, going to pick Mac Jones. All this noise is speculation based on the types of QBs he's had in the past. Its old information. If that's what he wanted he could keep Jimmy or go get Cousins. He wouldn't have to farm out the future for Mac freakin Jones.

    My bet is Lance, tho I like Fields as well. Longshot? Zach Wilson. I know all the noise says Jets take Wilson and they very well might, but the noise also said until a few days ago Mac was a lock...and I don't buy it.


    Who are you trying to convince, Marv? Us, or yourself?
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  • Maulbert wrote:
    Marvin49 wrote:OK...couple things on the last few posts.

    Shanahan needs a QB who can play from the pocket. There is no question of that. He does NOT need a QB who can ONLY play from the pocket.

    Yes, the QBs he's had have been Ryan (who was already there), RGIII (who had BY FAR his most successful season with Kyle), Garoppolo (who took him mainly because he was offered at a low price), and Cousins who was selected in the 5th round.

    If Kyle is gonna take a QB, he's typically going to find a guy he likes later on in the draft who can play from the pocket and doesn't possess elite traits. Look at what the Shanahans do at RB. Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, Alfred Morris, Davonta Freeman, Raheem Mostert...all of those guys had success as RBs in the Shanahan system. The only one picked high was Portis (2nd round) and they promptly traded him for Champ Bailey. Why? Because they think they can scheme offense. They don't take RBs high.

    Other than RGIII, the same holds for QBs. Slow, lumbering, pocket passers are available later in the draft.

    IMO, what he is NOT going to do is trade up to the 3rd pick, pay 2 more first to get there, and take the guy with no elite traits. The whole point is scheme over personnel.

    That's not what Kyle is looking for right now. Something has changed. He wouldn't have done this before. The only time the Shanahans (and to be clear, his Dad is a part of this...he's been to all the QB pro days) have traded up like this was for RGIII. RGIII was rookie of the year. His career fell apart because he got hurt and then had an attitude. Team chose the QB over the coaching staff and RGIII proceeded to tank.

    Kyles watched Wilson. He's watched Kyler. He's seen the Rams get Stafford. He saw Mahomes rip him up at the end of the SB.

    Kyle is looking for a guy with elite traits. Why do you think the Niners were in on Watson? If they really wanted a guy like Cousins, they could have traded for him in his first year in SF. I mean, hell, they could have him NOW if they gave up the 3rd pick. They could have done if for 12.

    Pay attention to Kyles comments after they lost to Buffalo this season. Kyle is looking for an athlete. He's not going to...and never was, going to pick Mac Jones. All this noise is speculation based on the types of QBs he's had in the past. Its old information. If that's what he wanted he could keep Jimmy or go get Cousins. He wouldn't have to farm out the future for Mac freakin Jones.

    My bet is Lance, tho I like Fields as well. Longshot? Zach Wilson. I know all the noise says Jets take Wilson and they very well might, but the noise also said until a few days ago Mac was a lock...and I don't buy it.


    Who are you trying to convince, Marv? Us, or yourself?


    LOL.

    Fair. :)

    I honestly don't think its Mac tho. Media has no idea what they are gonna do.
    Marvin49
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  • Marvin49 wrote:
    Maulbert wrote:
    Marvin49 wrote:OK...couple things on the last few posts.

    Shanahan needs a QB who can play from the pocket. There is no question of that. He does NOT need a QB who can ONLY play from the pocket.

    Yes, the QBs he's had have been Ryan (who was already there), RGIII (who had BY FAR his most successful season with Kyle), Garoppolo (who took him mainly because he was offered at a low price), and Cousins who was selected in the 5th round.

    If Kyle is gonna take a QB, he's typically going to find a guy he likes later on in the draft who can play from the pocket and doesn't possess elite traits. Look at what the Shanahans do at RB. Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, Alfred Morris, Davonta Freeman, Raheem Mostert...all of those guys had success as RBs in the Shanahan system. The only one picked high was Portis (2nd round) and they promptly traded him for Champ Bailey. Why? Because they think they can scheme offense. They don't take RBs high.

    Other than RGIII, the same holds for QBs. Slow, lumbering, pocket passers are available later in the draft.

    IMO, what he is NOT going to do is trade up to the 3rd pick, pay 2 more first to get there, and take the guy with no elite traits. The whole point is scheme over personnel.

    That's not what Kyle is looking for right now. Something has changed. He wouldn't have done this before. The only time the Shanahans (and to be clear, his Dad is a part of this...he's been to all the QB pro days) have traded up like this was for RGIII. RGIII was rookie of the year. His career fell apart because he got hurt and then had an attitude. Team chose the QB over the coaching staff and RGIII proceeded to tank.

    Kyles watched Wilson. He's watched Kyler. He's seen the Rams get Stafford. He saw Mahomes rip him up at the end of the SB.

    Kyle is looking for a guy with elite traits. Why do you think the Niners were in on Watson? If they really wanted a guy like Cousins, they could have traded for him in his first year in SF. I mean, hell, they could have him NOW if they gave up the 3rd pick. They could have done if for 12.

    Pay attention to Kyles comments after they lost to Buffalo this season. Kyle is looking for an athlete. He's not going to...and never was, going to pick Mac Jones. All this noise is speculation based on the types of QBs he's had in the past. Its old information. If that's what he wanted he could keep Jimmy or go get Cousins. He wouldn't have to farm out the future for Mac freakin Jones.

    My bet is Lance, tho I like Fields as well. Longshot? Zach Wilson. I know all the noise says Jets take Wilson and they very well might, but the noise also said until a few days ago Mac was a lock...and I don't buy it.


    Who are you trying to convince, Marv? Us, or yourself?


    LOL.

    Fair. :)

    I honestly don't think its Mac tho. Media has no idea what they are gonna do.


    Until a few days ago, I wouldn't have thought so. I don't know why Jones' stock has shot up, but it has. As little as 2 weeks ago, most mocks had him behind Trey Lance, who, while raw, I think most people believe has a higher ceiling than Jones. When they made the trade, I assumed the Niners wanted Justin Fields with an outside shot at Zach Wilson. However, in hindsight, I think they knew Wilson was already off the table, because if he wasn't, they would've moved up to #2. No one moves up that high just in the hope that the guy you covet might drop. So the pick likely is going to be Fields or Jones, because they probably could've gotten Lance cheaper.
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  • I would rather have Jones than Fields. Jones is definitely the 3rd best QB in the draft. He’s smart and accurate. His biggest issue is his fairly average arm and lack of athleticism. Ten years ago, he’d be the #2 pick. Now teams seem to be devaluing the pocket QB.

    If he’s the Niners pick, I would put money on him having the better career of anyone besides Lawrence. I understand the concerns, but after watching film on him, he really does seem like a Matt Ryan type of QB. He doesn’t have Mahomes or Allen potential. However, in the right system, he could be a perennial pro bowler.
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  • knownone wrote:I would rather have Jones than Fields. Jones is definitely the 3rd best QB in the draft. He’s smart and accurate. His biggest issue is his fairly average arm and lack of athleticism. Ten years ago, he’d be the #2 pick. Now teams seem to be devaluing the pocket QB.

    If he’s the Niners pick, I would put money on him having the better career of anyone besides Lawrence. I understand the concerns, but after watching film on him, he really does seem like a Matt Ryan type of QB. He doesn’t have Mahomes or Allen potential. However, in the right system, he could be a perennial pro bowler.


    So....

    ...because the trade was done so far in advance, I've had time to go over this several times and the QB I like most has changed several times.

    What I can say definitively is that Mac Jones has never been my favorite. LOL.

    I don't hate Mac Jones. What he did last year would be impressive on any level with any team. People keep making the comparison saying "he looks like a Kyle QB" but the thing is...Kyle never used anything close to a 3rd overall pick on one of those guys. His philosophy is that he doesn't need to take a QB in round 1 just like he doesn't need to take a RB...like...at all. The fact that he's being SOOO aggressive to get a QB is telling in itself. I think he's looking for an athlete with plus traits. That doesn't sound like Jones.

    IF Jones is the pick, I'll look forward to watching him and hoping that I'm wrong. In a big way.

    I like his game. I do. My issue is not that I think he's a horrible player. My issue is that I don't think he offers much that they don't already have in Jimmy. The only thing I see that he offers is a cheaper contract and he isn't hurt all the time.

    If the Niners took Mac at the END of round one, I'd think it was a great pick. If they had the 3rd pick initially, I could at least understand the pick.

    Its the giving up 2 additional 1s and a 3 to get up to three where it all falls apart for me. That just doesn't jive to me as something you do because a guy might be cheaper and maybe he won't get hurt as much.

    You make that trade for a guy you think can be transformational.

    My head tells me its Lance. If its Jones, I'll hate it, but welcome to the 49ers. PLEASE make me eat crow. PLEASE. :)
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  • 12AngryHawks wrote:https://qbcollective.com/

    This just might tell you who the 49ers are drafting...


    Yeah...there was quite a bit on that when the 49ers initially made the trade.

    My favorite: Fields
    My guess: Lance
    My nightmare: Jones
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  • Marvin49 wrote:
    knownone wrote:I would rather have Jones than Fields. Jones is definitely the 3rd best QB in the draft. He’s smart and accurate. His biggest issue is his fairly average arm and lack of athleticism. Ten years ago, he’d be the #2 pick. Now teams seem to be devaluing the pocket QB.

    If he’s the Niners pick, I would put money on him having the better career of anyone besides Lawrence. I understand the concerns, but after watching film on him, he really does seem like a Matt Ryan type of QB. He doesn’t have Mahomes or Allen potential. However, in the right system, he could be a perennial pro bowler.


    So....

    ...because the trade was done so far in advance, I've had time to go over this several times and the QB I like most has changed several times.

    What I can say definitively is that Mac Jones has never been my favorite. LOL.

    I don't hate Mac Jones. What he did last year would be impressive on any level with any team. People keep making the comparison saying "he looks like a Kyle QB" but the thing is...Kyle never used anything close to a 3rd overall pick on one of those guys. His philosophy is that he doesn't need to take a QB in round 1 just like he doesn't need to take a RB...like...at all. The fact that he's being SOOO aggressive to get a QB is telling in itself. I think he's looking for an athlete with plus traits. That doesn't sound like Jones.

    IF Jones is the pick, I'll look forward to watching him and hoping that I'm wrong. In a big way.

    I like his game. I do. My issue is not that I think he's a horrible player. My issue is that I don't think he offers much that they don't already have in Jimmy. The only thing I see that he offers is a cheaper contract and he isn't hurt all the time.

    If the Niners took Mac at the END of round one, I'd think it was a great pick. If they had the 3rd pick initially, I could at least understand the pick.

    Its the giving up 2 additional 1s and a 3 to get up to three where it all falls apart for me. That just doesn't jive to me as something you do because a guy might be cheaper and maybe he won't get hurt as much.

    You make that trade for a guy you think can be transformational.

    My head tells me its Lance. If its Jones, I'll hate it, but welcome to the 49ers. PLEASE make me eat crow. PLEASE. :)

    This is hard for me because I've been on the record (for years) saying that John Lynch is a bad GM who doesn't appear to have a long-term plan and hastily makes big decisions in the moment. So I think he's a guy who would mortgage the future for a modest upgrade at QB. However, this is the rare instance where I think Niners fans are overreacting.

    Trey Lance and Justin Fields are not better prospects than Jones. You could make the argument that they have higher upside because of their athleticism and arm strength, but as QBs, Jones is far and away superior at this moment. That's why I think you folks are overreacting. You see the flashiness and high ceiling of Lance and Fields and think there is no way Jones is on their level value-wise. Why? because he's not fast and he doesn't have a cannon? Meanwhile, he has a very similar skill-set as Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Kirk Cousins. But, Niners fans would rather roll the dice on finding the next Mahomes or Allen even if a miss could be terminal to both Shanahan and Lynch...

    I don't understand the logic. If Kyle is the QB guru that people think he is, then if he wants Jones, shouldn't Niners fans have faith in the pick?
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  • Marvin49 wrote:
    12AngryHawks wrote:https://qbcollective.com/

    This just might tell you who the 49ers are drafting...


    Yeah...there was quite a bit on that when the 49ers initially made the trade.

    My favorite: Fields
    My guess: Lance
    My nightmare: Jones



    It will be Jones. And in 10 years every 49ers fan will be pissed that they passed on multiple x all pro Left tackle Sewell.
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  • Give up a ton of picks to get the 3rd best QB. Hilarious on so many levels.
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  • knownone wrote:
    Marvin49 wrote:
    knownone wrote:I would rather have Jones than Fields. Jones is definitely the 3rd best QB in the draft. He’s smart and accurate. His biggest issue is his fairly average arm and lack of athleticism. Ten years ago, he’d be the #2 pick. Now teams seem to be devaluing the pocket QB.

    If he’s the Niners pick, I would put money on him having the better career of anyone besides Lawrence. I understand the concerns, but after watching film on him, he really does seem like a Matt Ryan type of QB. He doesn’t have Mahomes or Allen potential. However, in the right system, he could be a perennial pro bowler.


    So....

    ...because the trade was done so far in advance, I've had time to go over this several times and the QB I like most has changed several times.

    What I can say definitively is that Mac Jones has never been my favorite. LOL.

    I don't hate Mac Jones. What he did last year would be impressive on any level with any team. People keep making the comparison saying "he looks like a Kyle QB" but the thing is...Kyle never used anything close to a 3rd overall pick on one of those guys. His philosophy is that he doesn't need to take a QB in round 1 just like he doesn't need to take a RB...like...at all. The fact that he's being SOOO aggressive to get a QB is telling in itself. I think he's looking for an athlete with plus traits. That doesn't sound like Jones.

    IF Jones is the pick, I'll look forward to watching him and hoping that I'm wrong. In a big way.

    I like his game. I do. My issue is not that I think he's a horrible player. My issue is that I don't think he offers much that they don't already have in Jimmy. The only thing I see that he offers is a cheaper contract and he isn't hurt all the time.

    If the Niners took Mac at the END of round one, I'd think it was a great pick. If they had the 3rd pick initially, I could at least understand the pick.

    Its the giving up 2 additional 1s and a 3 to get up to three where it all falls apart for me. That just doesn't jive to me as something you do because a guy might be cheaper and maybe he won't get hurt as much.

    You make that trade for a guy you think can be transformational.

    My head tells me its Lance. If its Jones, I'll hate it, but welcome to the 49ers. PLEASE make me eat crow. PLEASE. :)

    This is hard for me because I've been on the record (for years) saying that John Lynch is a bad GM who doesn't appear to have a long-term plan and hastily makes big decisions in the moment. So I think he's a guy who would mortgage the future for a modest upgrade at QB. However, this is the rare instance where I think Niners fans are overreacting.

    Trey Lance and Justin Fields are not better prospects than Jones. You could make the argument that they have higher upside because of their athleticism and arm strength, but as QBs, Jones is far and away superior at this moment. That's why I think you folks are overreacting. You see the flashiness and high ceiling of Lance and Fields and think there is no way Jones is on their level value-wise. Why? because he's not fast and he doesn't have a cannon? Meanwhile, he has a very similar skill-set as Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Kirk Cousins. But, Niners fans would rather roll the dice on finding the next Mahomes or Allen even if a miss could be terminal to both Shanahan and Lynch...

    I don't understand the logic. If Kyle is the QB guru that people think he is, then if he wants Jones, shouldn't Niners fans have faith in the pick?


    I understand your point, but every fan has favorites.

    If Jones is the pick, do I immediately pack up and sell my season tickets? Of course not. I'll be disappointed and then I'll root for the guy to be better than I think.

    There is also some history on this for me though.

    I live in the Bay Area and I got to see alot of Aaron Rodgers at Cal. I wanted the Niners to take him at 1 and they took Alex Smith instead. Now EVERY. SINGLE. TIME the 49ers play the Packers, I gotta be reminded of that not only by the players, but the media story that follows.

    The thing is, I really think Kyle is looking for a high traits guy who he can mold, not a pick he'd have traditionally made. 49ers are now in division with Wilson, Murray, and Stafford. I just don't think Jones stacks up.

    So...I'll say again as I've been saying for awhile...

    My favorite: Fields
    My guess: Lance
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  • Yay. ;-)
    Marvin49
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  • Props to Marvin
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  • Marvin49 wrote:Yay. ;-)

    Congrats on getting one of the guys you wanted.

    It'll be interesting to see who ends up being the better player among Jones, Lance, Fields, and Wilson. Jones and Lance are in the best situations, so we'll get to know for certain if the Niners made the right choice.
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  • Let's see if this Bison QB can be healthier than the last one who was drafted.
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  • I wonder which of the three (Fields, Jones, or Lance) would have still been on the board at the Niners original #12 spot? We know Jones would have been, but the Fins took a WR at #6. Would they have made the same pick at #3? Could the Niners have had a choice between 2 of the top 3 QB's left after Wilson and Lawrence? That's what's so great about draft day...who knows.
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  • Don't know much about Trey Lance other than small school, limited experience, high intangibles, good athleticism, low accuracy and Cam Newton comparisons.

    Could be boom or bust. Huge risk for all that draft capital.
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  • Lance is the one, I personally did not want the 49ers to get. Crazy athlete, cannon of a arm, dual threat and the intelligence to improve. Not to mention how strong he will become, hell he is still growing into his body. He scares me.

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  • Not me. Less experience and played against easier defenses. They may have gotten Fields and kept those other draft picks, we already know they could have had Jones at their #12 spot. I was just glad it wasn't Fields.
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  • All of the QBs after Lawrence have pretty huge question marks. The only major question mark with Lance is his ability to read the field and throw guys open, which should be helped by the Niners not immediately throwing him into the fire. If he can do that, he'll be a stud.

    On the flip side, the precedent for guys like him coming out and succeeding is fairly low. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are the rare exceptions. Jake Locker, Robert Griffin, Sam Darnold, Mitchell Trubiski, etc., are the rule. You could even throw guys like Vince Young, Colin Kaepernick, Daniel Jones, and Blake Bortles in there, who had a similar skill deficiency as Lance coming out and way more experience. Although, lack of experience seems to play in Lance's favor because we don't know what his limitations truly are.

    The Niners are basically gambling their future on Lance being a stud in a year or two while hedging that if he's a bust, Jimmy G will soften the blow. Personally, I think the Niners are overvaluing their current roster. The media is painting their roster as elite, but the attrition from their SB run is very real. They have arguably the 3rd or 4th best roster in the NFC West, the 3rd or 4th best starting QB, and Lance is not expected to be ready for at least one season. You could make the case that injuries are the only reason they weren't a 10+ win team, but that's an optimistic way to build your future roster coming off a 6 win season.

    Where I get confused is what the immediate expectations for their franchise are? Is another sub .500 season acceptable while they wait for Lance to develop? I can't wrap my head around how satisfied my Niner's friends are with the team. If this were Seattle's situation, we'd be livid. Meanwhile, the 49ers have a strong chance of having their 4th losing season in 5 years under Shanahan and Lynch, and my Niners friends are happy they just traded their future for Lance while believing Lynch and Shanahan have a "3-year window" before their on the hot seat. It just doesn't make any sense to me.
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  • After watching A LOT of games, qb analysis, and replays on You tube, my opinion (for the 49ers) was Lance>Jones>Fields.

    I just think Fields did not really fit what we do, I did not like the slower release, he seemed slower to make decisions and his mechanics are wonky as well. Sometimes because of his mechanics it affects his accuracy. I can see Lance being successful as a niners because of all the play action and bootlegs he ran in college. I could see Jones being successful as a niner because he is basically Garoppolo 2.0. I just could not see it with fields.

    Lance is a good choice for us because he can sit and learn until he is ready.
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  • knownone wrote: Personally, I think the Niners are overvaluing their current roster. The media is painting their roster as elite, but the attrition from their SB run is very real..


    Buckner, Sherman ?

    Dee Ford is a question mark, who knows if he will play.

    WR are better, LT arguably better, Verret arguably had a Sherman on par year last year. Where is the attrition? Everybody else is the same. Our C Richburg was injured during the playoff run

    We have All pro quality at TE, DE , LB, LT, FB

    15/22 of the starters are exactly the same guys, 17/25 if you count special teams
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  • They painted themselves into a corner by trading up so aggressively, so early.

    The believed in Trey Lance so much that they were trying to peddle the pick to GB for Rodgers just hours before the draft, that is real belief I tells ya.

    So now that they were stuck at 3, and seeing Kyle looking so distraught at Mac Jones Pro Day knowing they couldn't take Mac Jones that high it came down to Lance and Fields.

    Lance won out due to the offense he played in. A pro-style offense with long verbage in the play calls. It will be a much easier transition for Lance than Fields for the 49ers.

    My personal grade for Lance was incomplete. He has so few throws and only played in 1 game last season, he just doesn't have the body of work to get a real eval on him.

    At number 3 I would've taken Kyle Pitts and gone with Trask in the 2nd.

    But if I'm forced to take a QB at number 3 then I also would've taken Trey Lance. Fields falls off a cliff scarily when pressured, and is going to take even longer than Lance to develop as a pocket QB. Lance's physical traits are obvious, and more importantly the type of mindset he has would lead you to believe he can be great at the next level with proper development, but this is a projection of a projection because he really needed another season in college.

    Fields will have to do it with his legs early and often. And Nagy is going to have to find ways to keep him out of 3rd and Long. Fields will be so damn bad as a rookie in that situation, and is the biggest reason why he didn't go top 5. Fields is easily confused by exotic coverage, and doesn't have a feel for the rush when he doesn't trust what his eyes see, and that's when the really bad decisions, and big mistakes start happening for him. He also at times throws the football like a Javelin and that inconsistent motion is going to lead to more interceptions in the early going.

    Obviously, Mac Jones just isn't physically talented enough to justify using THREE 1sts and a 3rd.

    All 3 of these guys were pushed way up the board and like I posted earlier, they probably will all flop. Gun to my head I would vote for Lance as the least likely to flop out of those 3, so there's that.

    Fun Fact: Since 2000, 75% of QBs taken in the 1st round have busted. The math says only 1 of the 5 taken in the 1st this year will "hit," maybe 2 of 5 will if you're lucky. 3 guys is rare, being 2004 the last time that happened (Manning, Rivers, Big Ben.)
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  • 94Smith wrote:
    knownone wrote: Personally, I think the Niners are overvaluing their current roster. The media is painting their roster as elite, but the attrition from their SB run is very real..


    Buckner, Sherman ?

    Dee Ford is a question mark, who knows if he will play.

    WR are better, LT arguably better, Verret arguably had a Sherman on par year last year. Where is the attrition? Everybody else is the same. Our C Richburg was injured during the playoff run

    We have All pro quality at TE, DE , LB, LT, FB

    15/22 of the starters are exactly the same guys, 17/25 if you count special teams

    Few things. Buckner and Sherman were all-pros in 2019. Verret has been injury-prone his entire career, so it's unclear whether he can remain a viable starter. Kwon Alexander and Dee Ford are injury-prone yet pro bowl caliber players who contributed to that 2019 SB run; Kwon is no longer on the team, and (as you mentioned) Ford is a question mark.

    The Niners (much like Seattle) played a fairly weak offensive schedule last season, contributing to inflated defensive stats. For example, they only played 4 games against top 15 QBs in the entire season and gave up an average of 33 points and 370 yards. They went 0-4 in those games (Sea 2x, GB, Buf).

    I think Niners fans are falling into the same trap that Seahawks fans fell into in 2015. Here's what I mean, your starters are still roughly comparable to 2019, but your depth is nowhere near what it was. On top of that, the division around you is better: the Cardinals have arguably the most talented roster in the division, Seattle and LA have better QBs. You could maybe make the case that SF has the best defense, but that's debatable given the Rams were #1 in the league last year.

    So what is a realistic ceiling for your team this season? I'll be honest, I have a hard time seeing you exceed 10 wins unless Lance hits the ground running. I would put money on 8-8, and if that's the case, I'm not sure how we can go into another off-season pretending that Lynch and Shanahan are these geniuses while having done very little to deserve the praise they keep getting.
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  • The depth of the team was put to the test last year with possibly the most injury riddled season the nfl has ever seen and they were still 6-10. Also the depth of the team was weakest at QB ,interior o line , and CB and they have taken out huge capital in free agency and the draft in these areas.
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  • Fade wrote:They painted themselves into a corner by trading up so aggressively, so early.

    The believed in Trey Lance so much that they were trying to peddle the pick to GB for Rodgers just hours before the draft, that is real belief I tells ya.

    So now that they were stuck at 3, and seeing Kyle looking so distraught at Mac Jones Pro Day knowing they couldn't take Mac Jones that high it came down to Lance and Fields.

    Lance won out due to the offense he played in. A pro-style offense with long verbage in the play calls. It will be a much easier transition for Lance than Fields for the 49ers.

    My personal grade for Lance was incomplete. He has so few throws and only played in 1 game last season, he just doesn't have the body of work to get a real eval on him.

    At number 3 I would've taken Kyle Pitts and gone with Trask in the 2nd.

    But if I'm forced to take a QB at number 3 then I also would've taken Trey Lance. Fields falls off a cliff scarily when pressured, and is going to take even longer than Lance to develop as a pocket QB. Lance's physical traits are obvious, and more importantly the type of mindset he has would lead you to believe he can be great at the next level with proper development, but this is a projection of a projection because he really needed another season in college.

    Fields will have to do it with his legs early and often. And Nagy is going to have to find ways to keep him out of 3rd and Long. Fields will be so damn bad as a rookie in that situation, and is the biggest reason why he didn't go top 5. Fields is easily confused by exotic coverage, and doesn't have a feel for the rush when he doesn't trust what his eyes see, and that's when the really bad decisions, and big mistakes start happening for him. He also at times throws the football like a Javelin and that inconsistent motion is going to lead to more interceptions in the early going.

    Obviously, Mac Jones just isn't physically talented enough to justify using THREE 1sts and a 3rd.

    All 3 of these guys were pushed way up the board and like I posted earlier, they probably will all flop. Gun to my head I would vote for Lance as the least likely to flop out of those 3, so there's that.

    Fun Fact: Since 2000, 75% of QBs taken in the 1st round have busted. The math says only 1 of the 5 taken in the 1st this year will "hit," maybe 2 of 5 will if you're lucky. 3 guys is rare, being 2004 the last time that happened (Manning, Rivers, Big Ben.)


    Never underestimate the ability of rival fan to portray the front office of the team they hate in complete befuddlement. LOL.

    This trade up was NEVER about Mac. Never. I've been saying this from the start. Lynch and Shanahan confirmed it after the 1st round. The media narrative that the 49ers traded up for Mac and then changed their mind is 100% false.

    They have liked Lance since JANUARY. They also told NOBODY who they preferred. The Mac leak took on a life of its own and wasn't sourced from anyone with knowledge of whom they liked, just as I've been saying all along in this thread. As Shanahan said in the conference, they felt no duty to correct the story in the media and the whirlwind did nothing but serve them.

    They liked Lance. They liked Fields. Yes, they even liked Mac, but Mac was NEVER going to be the pick at 3 no matter how much the media tries to backtrack and make their initial reporting "correct".

    Read what I've been saying for the past month in this thread. There is a reason I was so sure it wasn't Mac and why I was about 75% sure it was Lance.

    It was all about Kyle seeing Wilson and Murray in his division, Stafford trading into it, and most of all, seeing Josh Allen last year up close. He wanted a QB with athletic traits...big arm, mobility...but also a QB who could play from the pocket.

    I love the pick. I will make no guarantee that this pick doesn't crash and burn in a big way, but I love the pick and his potential. So much is made of the level he played on. I have almost zero concern with that. Small college QBs drafted in round 1 have historically done well (McNair, Flacco, even Wentz for awhile). Yes, the D aren't as good, but neither are the guys blocking for him or running routes.

    What DOES concern me is the number of starts. He just hasn't played that much. Here's the rub tho that makes it a bit different...He took of in 2019 as a Redshirt FRESHMAN. The only reason he only had 17 starts was COVID shutting down the entire league. What could he have done last year with a full 14-16 games, spring practice, etc? We'll never know.

    I dunno if I LOVE that they traded up, gave up all those picks to take Lance. I love the player, but you guys know how I feel about trading 1st rounders.

    No question, this is a boom or bust pick. Personally, I think he's gonna make it and I was ecstatic to hear his name called on Thursday.
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  • knownone wrote:All of the QBs after Lawrence have pretty huge question marks. The only major question mark with Lance is his ability to read the field and throw guys open, which should be helped by the Niners not immediately throwing him into the fire. If he can do that, he'll be a stud.

    On the flip side, the precedent for guys like him coming out and succeeding is fairly low. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are the rare exceptions. Jake Locker, Robert Griffin, Sam Darnold, Mitchell Trubiski, etc., are the rule. You could even throw guys like Vince Young, Colin Kaepernick, Daniel Jones, and Blake Bortles in there, who had a similar skill deficiency as Lance coming out and way more experience. Although, lack of experience seems to play in Lance's favor because we don't know what his limitations truly are.

    The Niners are basically gambling their future on Lance being a stud in a year or two while hedging that if he's a bust, Jimmy G will soften the blow. Personally, I think the Niners are overvaluing their current roster. The media is painting their roster as elite, but the attrition from their SB run is very real. They have arguably the 3rd or 4th best roster in the NFC West, the 3rd or 4th best starting QB, and Lance is not expected to be ready for at least one season. You could make the case that injuries are the only reason they weren't a 10+ win team, but that's an optimistic way to build your future roster coming off a 6 win season.

    Where I get confused is what the immediate expectations for their franchise are? Is another sub .500 season acceptable while they wait for Lance to develop? I can't wrap my head around how satisfied my Niner's friends are with the team. If this were Seattle's situation, we'd be livid. Meanwhile, the 49ers have a strong chance of having their 4th losing season in 5 years under Shanahan and Lynch, and my Niners friends are happy they just traded their future for Lance while believing Lynch and Shanahan have a "3-year window" before their on the hot seat. It just doesn't make any sense to me.


    The bolded is funny to me. :)

    I mean, how exactly do they have the 3rd or 4th best roster in the division? I think you've let one historically bad season of injuries get in your head there.

    49ers are good at....

    RB: DEEP room. So much so that they lost Coleman and McKinnon and they are still gonna have to cut someone who can play.

    WR: Really good With Deebo and Aiyuk. 3rd WR is a question but Jalen Hurd might FINALLY make a splash and Ritchie James looked good in flashes last year.

    TE: George. Was sad to see Reed retire. Never really got to see he and George together. They could use another TE tho. Dwelley is just OK.

    O-Line: Major area of injury concern last year. Resigned Williams, Signed Alex Mack (Center was huge problem all year), and drafted a few guys to compete at RG. You guys are no stranger to O-Line issues, but I'd submit SF is better there.

    D-Line: Getting Bosa back. Might get Dee Ford back. Kinlaw in year 2. Armstead. They are actually sneaky deep here after getting several guys back. Someone will say Seattle signed their leading sacker last year. I'd say there was a reason SF didn't offer that much and I highly doubt he'll repeat that performance.

    LB: Warner. Greenlaw. I also like their depth there with Azeez. Niners picked up a few UDFA here.

    DB: Ward still there. resigned Tartt. Resigned Moseley who took Witherspoons spot. Resigned K'waun Williams. Verrett had a great year, but yes...injury history is a concern. That's why they addressed the position in the draft. Book also might not have been written yet on Sherman...we'll see.

    QB: Of course, this is the big one. I actually agree that Jimmy right now is the 4th best QB in the division. Despite that, with mostly this roster, they went to the SB with him. Now, if Jimmy gets hurt, instead of the season being over, they'll have Trey Lance.

    So...just for a sec....what do you think would have happened to Seattle, Arizona, or LA in they'd lost their QB for most of the season in 2 of the last three years? I mean really. How would you react to someone who keeps pointing out that the Seahawks were only good for one year out of those 3 and its the one year Wilson played. Wouldn't that just sound crazy?
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  • The 49ers are going to finish in last place in the NFC West in 2021 Marv.

    The 49ers have the oldest roster in the NFL, they are going to get injured again because that's what older players do.

    They have the worst QB in the division. Wilson > Stafford w/McVay = Murray > > Jimmy/Lance.

    Elite QBs and/or Elite Defenses win Division titles. The Rams have an elite defense and a massive upgrade at QB, the Seahawks have an Elite QB. Those 2 are the frontrunners to win the Division, and I give the Rams the slight edge right now, with AZ being the darkhorse if everything pops for them and Murray goes to another level in year 3.

    The Niners lost a tremendous leader in Robert Salah and their defense is not going to be as good due to that loss. Jimmy is mid on his best day, and Lance is a project.

    Kyle Shanahan is an OC LARPing as a Head Coach, and will experience his 5th losing season in 6 years. 2019 was the outlier. Bear in mind I predicted the 49ers were going to have a great 2019 on this very forum "The 49ers are the real threat." I am no hater.

    I call a ball a "ball" and a strike a "strike."

    I look forward to you damage controlling the injuries on here once again in about 5 months, and how Kyle Shanahan should get another season even though he continues to under perform. He is a brilliant playcaller, but he leaves a lot to be desired as a Head Coach.
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  • Fade wrote:The 49ers are going to finish in last place in the NFC West in 2021 Marv.

    The 49ers have the oldest roster in the NFL, they are going to get injured again because that's what older players do.

    They have the worst QB in the division. Wilson > Stafford w/McVay = Murray > > Jimmy/Lance.

    Elite QBs and/or Elite Defenses win Division titles. The Rams have an elite defense and a massive upgrade at QB, the Seahawks have an Elite QB. Those 2 are the frontrunners to win the Division, and I give the Rams the slight edge right now, with AZ being the darkhorse if everything pops for them and Murray goes to another level in year 3.

    The Niners lost a tremendous leader in Robert Salah and their defense is not going to be as good due to that loss. Jimmy is mid on his best day, and Lance is a project.

    Kyle Shanahan is an OC LARPing as a Head Coach, and will experience his 5th losing season in 6 years. 2019 was the outlier. Bear in mind I predicted the 49ers were going to have a great 2019 on this very forum "The 49ers are the real threat." I am no hater.

    I call a ball a "ball" and a strike a "strike."

    I look forward to you damage controlling the injuries on here once again in about 5 months, and how Kyle Shanahan should get another season even though he continues to under perform. He is a brilliant playcaller, but he leaves a lot to be desired as a Head Coach.


    Yeah. M'Kay.

    There is ALOT of hope in that post there man. ALOT. We'll see this year, but WOW.

    I'll keep the receipts. :)

    BTW: Oldest roster in the NFL? uh.....

    They have exactly TWO starters over 30. TWO. Alex Mack and Trent Williams. Seattle has 7. Wilson, Wagner, Brown, Dunlap, Hyder, Woods, and if they resign him, Wright.

    What on earth are you talking about?
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  • My initial gut feeling is that Lance won't bust like a Jamarcus Russell, but he's not going to be the next Pat Mahomes or Lamar Jackson either. And for everything they paid to acquire him, he better be a sure-fire generational talent.

    Since no one knows if he will be, Lynch and Shanny took a huge gamble. They went all in, hoping for an inside straight on the river. Not really the best way to build a team, unless they think they can win it all in the next 2-3 years.
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  • hoxrox wrote:My initial gut feeling is that Lance won't bust like a Jamarcus Russell, but he's not going to be the next Pat Mahomes or Lamar Jackson either. And for everything they paid to acquire him, he better be a sure-fire generational talent.

    Since no one knows if he will be, Lynch and Shanny took a huge gamble. They went all in, hoping for an inside straight on the river. Not really the best way to build a team, unless they think they can win it all in the next 2-3 years.


    Errrrr....I think he’ll be much better than both Russell or Lamar, but then that’s because I’m not all that high in Lamar. Tremendous athlete, but he’s a product of the same Greg Roman system that Kap was. I didn’t see it at the time, but it’s clear as day now. The next step is that they will try to get him to play more from the pocket and the more he tries the worse he’ll get.

    As for Lance, there is no question this is a big risk. This is what you do tho. Getting any franchise QB requires luck no matter how you try. Some get one in round three. Some in round 6. Most often though, they go top of round one. If you see one you think can be one of those guys, you go get him. There are no guarantees.

    Nobody knew Mahomes would be Mahomes. Teams miss as much as they fail up there...but if you want a big time QB, you gotta pay what it takes when you think you’ve identified one.

    I just hope Lance is one of those guys. Nobody really knows.
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  • 17 starts and barely 300 pass attempts in his CAREER. And you traded the farm for that??
    Pretty funny.
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  • Marvin49 wrote:
    The bolded is funny to me. :)

    I mean, how exactly do they have the 3rd or 4th best roster in the division? I think you've let one historically bad season of injuries get in your head there.

    49ers are good at....

    RB: DEEP room. So much so that they lost Coleman and McKinnon and they are still gonna have to cut someone who can play.

    WR: Really good With Deebo and Aiyuk. 3rd WR is a question but Jalen Hurd might FINALLY make a splash and Ritchie James looked good in flashes last year.

    TE: George. Was sad to see Reed retire. Never really got to see he and George together. They could use another TE tho. Dwelley is just OK.

    O-Line: Major area of injury concern last year. Resigned Williams, Signed Alex Mack (Center was huge problem all year), and drafted a few guys to compete at RG. You guys are no stranger to O-Line issues, but I'd submit SF is better there.

    D-Line: Getting Bosa back. Might get Dee Ford back. Kinlaw in year 2. Armstead. They are actually sneaky deep here after getting several guys back. Someone will say Seattle signed their leading sacker last year. I'd say there was a reason SF didn't offer that much and I highly doubt he'll repeat that performance.

    LB: Warner. Greenlaw. I also like their depth there with Azeez. Niners picked up a few UDFA here.

    DB: Ward still there. resigned Tartt. Resigned Moseley who took Witherspoons spot. Resigned K'waun Williams. Verrett had a great year, but yes...injury history is a concern. That's why they addressed the position in the draft. Book also might not have been written yet on Sherman...we'll see.

    QB: Of course, this is the big one. I actually agree that Jimmy right now is the 4th best QB in the division. Despite that, with mostly this roster, they went to the SB with him. Now, if Jimmy gets hurt, instead of the season being over, they'll have Trey Lance.

    So...just for a sec....what do you think would have happened to Seattle, Arizona, or LA in they'd lost their QB for most of the season in 2 of the last three years? I mean really. How would you react to someone who keeps pointing out that the Seahawks were only good for one year out of those 3 and its the one year Wilson played. Wouldn't that sound crazy?

    I think you've taken my comment out of context. Who do you rate your roster ahead of? I would argue that the Cardinals have the most talent on paper. I think Seattle, LA, and San Fran are pretty similar, but I give the edge to Seattle at #2 because of continuity and Russ. The 49ers and Rams are a toss-up because of all the question marks surrounding their teams. Keep in mind, I'm not saying Arizona will be the better team. I look at them on paper and think they have the highest upside in the division.

    I've mentioned this before, and I'll repeat it. You can't use injuries as an excuse when your GM prioritizes guys known to have injury concerns. Look at the guys Lynch has gone after Verrett, Sherman, Ford, Deeboo, Alexander, Ward, Hurd, etc... were all guys who've dealt with or were coming off severe injuries when signed/drafted/re-signed. It's no secret that your front office targets players who are undervalued because of injuries, so we can't pretend that it's just bad luck when your team deals with injuries in 3 out of 4 seasons.

    As for what would happen if Seattle or LA lost their QBs, that's a tough question. I'm in the minority who think the Seahawks wouldn't drop off dramatically without Russ, but they'd definitely win fewer than 10 games. The Rams offense scored fewer points than the 49ers last year. I'm not sure losing Goff would have had a dramatic impact on their record. Here's where we definitely disagree. I think Goff is a better QB than Jimmy G. In other words; I don't think Jimmy G being healthy has a dramatic impact on your season. You'd win more than 6 games, but definitely fewer than 10. Bosa and Kittle are another story.

    As for Seattle, I'd be honest with my assessment of the team. For example, I think Seattle's recent success is a product of their schedule; we're a 10 win team that won 12 due to an easy schedule. If the 2019 Niners were Seattle, I would be worried that 2019 was a flash in the pan. Why? Because many things broke their way that season, and every other year they've been below .500 for the same reason (injuries). On top of that, you had the 6th easiest schedule that year and were half a yard from losing home-field advantage and the division. All while injuries devasted your two biggest rivals for much of the season; Seattle and LA had almost as many season-ending injuries that year as the Niners this year.

    I understand why this might not be music to a Niner's fan's ears, and I hope I am wrong because I like having a rivalry with you. I'm just calling it as I see it. I've never seen a GM and HC get so much respect for having accomplished so little. Think about it, Dan Quinn and Dimitroff had 7 more wins than Shanahan/Lynch going into their 5th season. They had a very similar set of circumstances with injuries and SB success. Both were on the hot seat and fired before their 6th season. Meanwhile, you won't hear a peep from the San Fran media or fans about their duo being fired.
    knownone
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  • knownone wrote:
    Marvin49 wrote:
    The bolded is funny to me. :)

    I mean, how exactly do they have the 3rd or 4th best roster in the division? I think you've let one historically bad season of injuries get in your head there.

    49ers are good at....

    RB: DEEP room. So much so that they lost Coleman and McKinnon and they are still gonna have to cut someone who can play.

    WR: Really good With Deebo and Aiyuk. 3rd WR is a question but Jalen Hurd might FINALLY make a splash and Ritchie James looked good in flashes last year.

    TE: George. Was sad to see Reed retire. Never really got to see he and George together. They could use another TE tho. Dwelley is just OK.

    O-Line: Major area of injury concern last year. Resigned Williams, Signed Alex Mack (Center was huge problem all year), and drafted a few guys to compete at RG. You guys are no stranger to O-Line issues, but I'd submit SF is better there.

    D-Line: Getting Bosa back. Might get Dee Ford back. Kinlaw in year 2. Armstead. They are actually sneaky deep here after getting several guys back. Someone will say Seattle signed their leading sacker last year. I'd say there was a reason SF didn't offer that much and I highly doubt he'll repeat that performance.

    LB: Warner. Greenlaw. I also like their depth there with Azeez. Niners picked up a few UDFA here.

    DB: Ward still there. resigned Tartt. Resigned Moseley who took Witherspoons spot. Resigned K'waun Williams. Verrett had a great year, but yes...injury history is a concern. That's why they addressed the position in the draft. Book also might not have been written yet on Sherman...we'll see.

    QB: Of course, this is the big one. I actually agree that Jimmy right now is the 4th best QB in the division. Despite that, with mostly this roster, they went to the SB with him. Now, if Jimmy gets hurt, instead of the season being over, they'll have Trey Lance.

    So...just for a sec....what do you think would have happened to Seattle, Arizona, or LA in they'd lost their QB for most of the season in 2 of the last three years? I mean really. How would you react to someone who keeps pointing out that the Seahawks were only good for one year out of those 3 and its the one year Wilson played. Wouldn't that sound crazy?

    I think you've taken my comment out of context. Who do you rate your roster ahead of? I would argue that the Cardinals have the most talent on paper. I think Seattle, LA, and San Fran are pretty similar, but I give the edge to Seattle at #2 because of continuity and Russ. The 49ers and Rams are a toss-up because of all the question marks surrounding their teams. Keep in mind, I'm not saying Arizona will be the better team. I look at them on paper and think they have the highest upside in the division.

    I've mentioned this before, and I'll repeat it. You can't use injuries as an excuse when your GM prioritizes guys known to have injury concerns. Look at the guys Lynch has gone after Verrett, Sherman, Ford, Deeboo, Alexander, Ward, Hurd, etc... were all guys who've dealt with or were coming off severe injuries when signed/drafted/re-signed. It's no secret that your front office targets players who are undervalued because of injuries, so we can't pretend that it's just bad luck when your team deals with injuries in 3 out of 4 seasons.

    As for what would happen if Seattle or LA lost their QBs, that's a tough question. I'm in the minority who think the Seahawks wouldn't drop off dramatically without Russ, but they'd definitely win fewer than 10 games. The Rams offense scored fewer points than the 49ers last year. I'm not sure losing Goff would have had a dramatic impact on their record. Here's where we definitely disagree. I think Goff is a better QB than Jimmy G. In other words; I don't think Jimmy G being healthy has a dramatic impact on your season. You'd win more than 6 games, but definitely fewer than 10. Bosa and Kittle are another story.

    As for Seattle, I'd be honest with my assessment of the team. For example, I think Seattle's recent success is a product of their schedule; we're a 10 win team that won 12 due to an easy schedule. If the 2019 Niners were Seattle, I would be worried that 2019 was a flash in the pan. Why? Because many things broke their way that season, and every other year they've been below .500 for the same reason (injuries). On top of that, you had the 6th easiest schedule that year and were half a yard from losing home-field advantage and the division. All while injuries devasted your two biggest rivals for much of the season; Seattle and LA had almost as many season-ending injuries that year as the Niners this year.

    I understand why this might not be music to a Niner's fan's ears, and I hope I am wrong because I like having a rivalry with you. I'm just calling it as I see it. I've never seen a GM and HC get so much respect for having accomplished so little. Think about it, Dan Quinn and Dimitroff had 7 more wins than Shanahan/Lynch going into their 5th season. They had a very similar set of circumstances with injuries and SB success. Both were on the hot seat and fired before their 6th season. Meanwhile, you won't hear a peep from the San Fran media or fans about their duo being fired.


    I mean...I really don't think we can have a reasonable conversation based on the bolded. Lol.

    Shanahan with Jimmy: 24-9
    Shanahan without Jimmy: 7-26

    I mean...

    I think you are just ignoring that reality. Thats not so much about Jimmy either. That's about the quantum leap down from Jimmy to Beathard and Mullens.

    I won't get into a who is better: Goff vs Garoppolo....mostly because I honestly don't care. :)

    As for injuries last year...every team gets injuries. All of them. Its just something you deal with. What happened in SF last year was unprecedented. It aint just about the number of injuries. Its WHO was hurt. More than half of their salary cap spent time on IR last season, including several of their best players (Kittle, Bosa, Deebo). Against GB last year they lost nearly their entire WR room to Covid.

    Beyond that. No good team can survive for a season without their QB.

    Miss me with sating the Seahawks wouldn't be screwed without Wilson. That's just loony tunes. Seattle would be MORE impacted than SF was without him, not less. Here's the thing tho....you don't know that because it hasn't happened. Pray it never does.
    Marvin49
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    Posts: 7144
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  • knownone wrote:
    Marvin49 wrote:
    The bolded is funny to me. :)

    I mean, how exactly do they have the 3rd or 4th best roster in the division? I think you've let one historically bad season of injuries get in your head there.

    49ers are good at....

    RB: DEEP room. So much so that they lost Coleman and McKinnon and they are still gonna have to cut someone who can play.

    WR: Really good With Deebo and Aiyuk. 3rd WR is a question but Jalen Hurd might FINALLY make a splash and Ritchie James looked good in flashes last year.

    TE: George. Was sad to see Reed retire. Never really got to see he and George together. They could use another TE tho. Dwelley is just OK.

    O-Line: Major area of injury concern last year. Resigned Williams, Signed Alex Mack (Center was huge problem all year), and drafted a few guys to compete at RG. You guys are no stranger to O-Line issues, but I'd submit SF is better there.

    D-Line: Getting Bosa back. Might get Dee Ford back. Kinlaw in year 2. Armstead. They are actually sneaky deep here after getting several guys back. Someone will say Seattle signed their leading sacker last year. I'd say there was a reason SF didn't offer that much and I highly doubt he'll repeat that performance.

    LB: Warner. Greenlaw. I also like their depth there with Azeez. Niners picked up a few UDFA here.

    DB: Ward still there. resigned Tartt. Resigned Moseley who took Witherspoons spot. Resigned K'waun Williams. Verrett had a great year, but yes...injury history is a concern. That's why they addressed the position in the draft. Book also might not have been written yet on Sherman...we'll see.

    QB: Of course, this is the big one. I actually agree that Jimmy right now is the 4th best QB in the division. Despite that, with mostly this roster, they went to the SB with him. Now, if Jimmy gets hurt, instead of the season being over, they'll have Trey Lance.

    So...just for a sec....what do you think would have happened to Seattle, Arizona, or LA in they'd lost their QB for most of the season in 2 of the last three years? I mean really. How would you react to someone who keeps pointing out that the Seahawks were only good for one year out of those 3 and its the one year Wilson played. Wouldn't that sound crazy?

    . All while injuries devasted your two biggest rivals for much of the season; Seattle and LA had almost as many season-ending injuries that year as the Niners this year.
    .


    This is the the biggest load of horse XXXX I've ever heard! In 2019 Seattle reported 45 players with injuries and SF reported 45. In 2020 Seattle reported 47 players with injuries and SF jumped to 66! This includes COVID, Q, D, IR
    94Smith
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    Posts: 387
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  • 94Smith wrote:
    knownone wrote:
    Marvin49 wrote:
    The bolded is funny to me. :)

    I mean, how exactly do they have the 3rd or 4th best roster in the division? I think you've let one historically bad season of injuries get in your head there.

    49ers are good at....

    RB: DEEP room. So much so that they lost Coleman and McKinnon and they are still gonna have to cut someone who can play.

    WR: Really good With Deebo and Aiyuk. 3rd WR is a question but Jalen Hurd might FINALLY make a splash and Ritchie James looked good in flashes last year.

    TE: George. Was sad to see Reed retire. Never really got to see he and George together. They could use another TE tho. Dwelley is just OK.

    O-Line: Major area of injury concern last year. Resigned Williams, Signed Alex Mack (Center was huge problem all year), and drafted a few guys to compete at RG. You guys are no stranger to O-Line issues, but I'd submit SF is better there.

    D-Line: Getting Bosa back. Might get Dee Ford back. Kinlaw in year 2. Armstead. They are actually sneaky deep here after getting several guys back. Someone will say Seattle signed their leading sacker last year. I'd say there was a reason SF didn't offer that much and I highly doubt he'll repeat that performance.

    LB: Warner. Greenlaw. I also like their depth there with Azeez. Niners picked up a few UDFA here.

    DB: Ward still there. resigned Tartt. Resigned Moseley who took Witherspoons spot. Resigned K'waun Williams. Verrett had a great year, but yes...injury history is a concern. That's why they addressed the position in the draft. Book also might not have been written yet on Sherman...we'll see.

    QB: Of course, this is the big one. I actually agree that Jimmy right now is the 4th best QB in the division. Despite that, with mostly this roster, they went to the SB with him. Now, if Jimmy gets hurt, instead of the season being over, they'll have Trey Lance.

    So...just for a sec....what do you think would have happened to Seattle, Arizona, or LA in they'd lost their QB for most of the season in 2 of the last three years? I mean really. How would you react to someone who keeps pointing out that the Seahawks were only good for one year out of those 3 and its the one year Wilson played. Wouldn't that sound crazy?

    . All while injuries devasted your two biggest rivals for much of the season; Seattle and LA had almost as many season-ending injuries that year as the Niners this year.
    .


    This is the the biggest load of horse XXXX I've ever heard! In 2019 Seattle reported 45 players with injuries and SF reported 45. In 2020 Seattle reported 47 players with injuries and SF jumped to 66! This includes COVID, Q, D, IR


    ...and none were their starting QB.
    Marvin49
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    Posts: 7144
    Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 2:34 pm


  • I counted games missed by players and Seattle was 231 in 2019 and SF was 365. Biggest load of homer BS I've ever heard. Starting QB was out AND best player on offense AND best player on defense! Horse XXXX
    94Smith
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    Posts: 387
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  • 94Smith wrote:https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sfo/2020_injuries.htm

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sea/2019_injuries.htm

    Second highest adjusted games lost amount in the last 20 years behind the 2016 Bears

    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2021/2020-adjusted-games-lost-part-i

    If you look at the chart at the bottom SF AGL in 2020 was 166.6 and in 2019 was 95.8! 2019 Seahawks was 56.5 and LAR was 60.6.

    You guys always say everything broke SF way in 2019, but they had more injuries then too!


    The streak itself was bad enough, but Shanahan's 49ers suffered a particularly harsh fate with 166.6 adjusted games lost, the highest total in 2020 and second-highest since 2001 behind only the 2016 Bears at 171.6 (note that their total was listed at 155.1 prior to last year's methodology change). Given that adjusted games has a stronger year-over-year correlation with DVOA than it does with itself, Shanahan and defensive coordinator Robert Saleh may have accomplished more in their 11th place DVOA finish last year than they did in their fifth-place DVOA finish in their Super Bowl season. A healthy quarterback would be a great start—Shanahan is 24-9 with the 49ers with Jimmy Garoppolo as his starter.

    Yup...sounds just like the Rams and Seahawks in 2019. :roll:
    Marvin49
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    Posts: 7144
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  • AGL was 166.6 but our DVOA was still 5, yet we don't have depth. Sure! :2thumbs: :2thumbs: :2thumbs: :179422:
    94Smith
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