A month ago, I honestly thought we had about a 25% shot

[HawKnPeppa]

Lol, don't understand why people didn't believe. I fully believed we would be here even after 3-3.

Our defense never went anywhere. Our QB and RB never went anywhere. We were heavily injured. They weren't playing well but it was ridiculous to think this team would miss the playoffs or anything. Not with this team, coaching staff.

I wasn't sure Chancellor and Wagner would recover enough this season to play as well as they are playing right now. Then we lose Mebane. I don't blame some people for doubting the team, because we weren't lookng all that great for a awhile.

The play is much improved now, but I'm still waiting for something more than a fair-to-poor QB to pick on.

 

[RiverDog]

It's such an awesome feeling knowing that each week, we have a realistic shot of winning EVERY game.

That's what good defense does for you. It doesn't always "win championships" like the saying used to go...although it did win one for us...but by virtue of keeping the scoring low, it keeps you in every game. If you exclude the 9 point loss this season to the Chargers, which was expanded to a two score win very late in the contest, we have gone well over two years, playoffs included, where we have not lost a game by more than a single score. It's what keeps games alive for a play like Fail Mary to materialize.

Back to the OP...You had good company. A lot of very good, knowledgeable football people wrote our obituary after we lost to the Rams to fall to 3-3. I don't think I ever personally rated our chances of at least returning to the SB as low as 25%, but I definitely had us lower than 50/50.

Now I think our chances of at least getting back to the SB are better than 80%, providing the Packers/Lions game doesn't end in a tie, and even if we do have to go on the road, I'm still confident we can win. I actually like the way we are ending the season this year vs. last because we are peaking at just the right time. Last year, after the MNF game with the Saints, everything seemed pretty anticlimactic. We went 2-2 in December and didn't exactly bowl people over in the playoffs even though we had HFA. This season, we are ending the year on a big high...so long as we keep the beat and bust the Rams tomorrow. We've had to fight for HFA this year whereas last season everything seemed to fall our way and we sort of coasted.

 

[Hawknballs]

I admittedly had my doubts when we were 6-4 just because of the way the back half of our schedule looked and because of the way the NFC looked at the time. You basically had 7 teams battling for 5 playoff spots, and the only team in the pecking order below seattle was SF, who also had an easy travel-friendly schedule to finish the year.

In fact, most of the teams in the conversation had much easier looking schedules at the time, and while I didn't doubt the Seahawks were capable of winning any game (they have been in that position in every game the last few years), the odds were against us.

that being said I'm not surprised we are in this position - more so just surprised at how the chips have fallen to put us in position to take the #1 seed again.

 

[mikeak]

Based on stats, percentages, odds, etc the Hawks have a 12.5% chance to make the Super Bowl but that is true of all teams with home field advantage and first round byes winning their next three games. Now if you say the Hawks have an 80% chance of beating the Rams and therefore attaining the HFA and then beating their first opponent with an 80% chance and then winning the NFCC game with an 80% chance then the odds the Hawks will get to the SB is about 51%. Reality is every team has a 50/50 chance to win any game.

I think in this case, the stats are extremely limited in what they can predict with this team. I mean, were people saying things like this when the Pats were consistently dominating in their heyday? No, because simple numbers didn't apply to their greatness.

That's what we have here. I still don't think a lot of people "get" it. What we have here is dominance, and it's been sustainable. Yet I constantly see the gloomy, reserved Seahawks fans everywhere. I'm not saying that this is you at all... Just a general observation.

Statistics aren't limited. The model that was in the quoted post is limited and flawed

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

I admittedly had my doubts when we were 6-4 just because of the way the back half of our schedule looked and because of the way the NFC looked at the time. You basically had 7 teams battling for 5 playoff spots, and the only team in the pecking order below seattle was SF, who also had an easy travel-friendly schedule to finish the year.

In fact, most of the teams in the conversation had much easier looking schedules at the time, and while I didn't doubt the Seahawks were capable of winning any game (they have been in that position in every game the last few years), the odds were against us.

that being said I'm not surprised we are in this position - more so just surprised at how the chips have fallen to put us in position to take the #1 seed again.

This was were I was at exactly. I guess that will teach me not to jump the gun and just do as Aaron said...RELAX.

 

[fire_marshall_bill]

I for one am pretty disappointed in the OP . I never gave up on this team . sitting at 3-3 I knew we were destined for that ONE seed.

:roll:

 

[fire_marshall_bill]

Before the first SF game, I was still thinking they had mabye a 50-60% chance just for the playoffs at 7-4. They weren't even in the hypothetical playoffs IIRC.

Now I'd put the SB at a 70% chance.

 

[StoneCold]

Beginning of the season my expectations and hopes were sky high. After we started 3-1 I thought we would dominate like no team had in the history of the game. Then that Dallas game. 3rd and 20...gutted, but realized we were in it right to the end. Then St Louis slipped us a mickey and I thought uh-oh, this isn't going to be easy. But there again I said to myself, we were in it right to the end. We weren't the world beaters I'd thought, but we were a gritty team and took care of business over the next three games. Then KC. WTF with Charles gashing us and while we get it together in the second half we lose another close one and the reality of the NFL settled in. There are a lot of good teams and the difference in any game is a few plays. The ball bounces your way and you win. It doesn't and you lose. I didn't lose hope. Still my team, but at that point, if you're being realistic, you know the season is hanging by a thread.

After that something happened in the locker room. I look forward to finding out, in a 4 or 5 years, exactly what was said and how it went down, but whatever it was the Seahawks caught the magic and that old feeling was back. What a great stretch of games! Win, Win, Win, Win, Win! Harbaugh is eviscerated and likely headed back to the college game. Kaepernick is shown to be a gazelle with a walnut sized brain and the Cards house falls apart. That leaves us standing on top with one game to go.

If the season has taught you nothing then you are certain of tomorrow's outcome. For me? I know anything could happen and that's what makes the game great.

Go Hawks!

SC

 

[sutz]

Before the first SF game, I was still thinking they had mabye a 50-60% chance just for the playoffs at 7-4. They weren't even in the hypothetical playoffs IIRC.

Now I'd put the SB at a 70% chance.

Any team that is is above .500 with 5 games to play is pretty much in the playoff hunt.

Having said that, you have to like our chances now, with a solid shot at HFA throughout.