I just posted my speculations about this mock over on the Bears board. I expect to get some flack. Just wondering what you guys think.
4. Indianapolis Colts – QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
After its 2022 crash and burn, time for this organization to reset under center with youth rather than continuing to play musical chairs with fading veterans. New HC Shane Steichen has been coordinating offenses since 2019 and been quite successful with a range of quarterbacks including Philip Rivers, Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts. Of that group, Stroud (6-3, 215 pounds) most closely resembles Herbert as he's accurate (69.3% completion rate in college), productive (85 TD passes, 12 INTs, 182.4 passer rating over last two seasons) and athletic – but, like Herbert, more inclined to extend plays to throw rather than break the pocket. Stroud was on the losing end of both his starts against Michigan and in a 2023 College Football Playoff semifinal against Georgia – but he was spectacular in that final game, passing for 348 yards and four TDs against an awesome Bulldogs defense.
www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/columnist/nate-davis/2023/02/20/nfl-mock-draft-2023-bryce-young-cj-stroud-first-round/11243016002/
This is the latest mock for USA Today. Steichen was one of the most respected OCs in league, and it makes sense why he might prefer Stroud, not only for the size issue with Young but also Stroud’s style of play. Also, I expect Ballard will defer to Steichen to choose their “guy” for the draft.
Most analysts rate Young as the best QB prospect despite the size issue. Besides, he is probably adding some weight as we speak to get closer to 200 pounds at the combine. That is what I would do in his situation. He wants to report Drew Brees size.
So, if all that happens, Ballard will figure that the Texans have Young as their “guy” and so Ballard can sit at #4 and draft Stroud.
If Poles is willing to trade lower than #4 and lose out on Anderson/Carter AND there is a GM like Panthers, etc. willing to meet his price, that would screw up Ballard’s plan. We won’t know that until draft night.
You can bet that Ballard is not only talking to Poles. He will also talk with the Cards. So, if Poles does a Trey Lance kind of deal with somebody, Ballard’s backup plan on draft night is to trade up to #3 with the Cards. That would cost less, according to the sacred chart, than trading up with the Bears, and the Cards would jump on the deal, since it allows them to get the guy they wanted anyway (Anderson/Carter) plus whatever pick(s) Ballard pays.
This seems like a very plausible scenario to me.
I think Poles should get the Colts trade wrapped up before this scenario has a chance to play out. Otherwise, the only thing that would force the Texans trade would be if Eberflus/Warren are pounding the table for Carter and fear the Cards will grab him at #3 to replace JJ Watt. I have seen that in a few mocks, too.
4. Indianapolis Colts – QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
After its 2022 crash and burn, time for this organization to reset under center with youth rather than continuing to play musical chairs with fading veterans. New HC Shane Steichen has been coordinating offenses since 2019 and been quite successful with a range of quarterbacks including Philip Rivers, Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts. Of that group, Stroud (6-3, 215 pounds) most closely resembles Herbert as he's accurate (69.3% completion rate in college), productive (85 TD passes, 12 INTs, 182.4 passer rating over last two seasons) and athletic – but, like Herbert, more inclined to extend plays to throw rather than break the pocket. Stroud was on the losing end of both his starts against Michigan and in a 2023 College Football Playoff semifinal against Georgia – but he was spectacular in that final game, passing for 348 yards and four TDs against an awesome Bulldogs defense.
www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/columnist/nate-davis/2023/02/20/nfl-mock-draft-2023-bryce-young-cj-stroud-first-round/11243016002/
This is the latest mock for USA Today. Steichen was one of the most respected OCs in league, and it makes sense why he might prefer Stroud, not only for the size issue with Young but also Stroud’s style of play. Also, I expect Ballard will defer to Steichen to choose their “guy” for the draft.
Most analysts rate Young as the best QB prospect despite the size issue. Besides, he is probably adding some weight as we speak to get closer to 200 pounds at the combine. That is what I would do in his situation. He wants to report Drew Brees size.
So, if all that happens, Ballard will figure that the Texans have Young as their “guy” and so Ballard can sit at #4 and draft Stroud.
If Poles is willing to trade lower than #4 and lose out on Anderson/Carter AND there is a GM like Panthers, etc. willing to meet his price, that would screw up Ballard’s plan. We won’t know that until draft night.
You can bet that Ballard is not only talking to Poles. He will also talk with the Cards. So, if Poles does a Trey Lance kind of deal with somebody, Ballard’s backup plan on draft night is to trade up to #3 with the Cards. That would cost less, according to the sacred chart, than trading up with the Bears, and the Cards would jump on the deal, since it allows them to get the guy they wanted anyway (Anderson/Carter) plus whatever pick(s) Ballard pays.
This seems like a very plausible scenario to me.
I think Poles should get the Colts trade wrapped up before this scenario has a chance to play out. Otherwise, the only thing that would force the Texans trade would be if Eberflus/Warren are pounding the table for Carter and fear the Cards will grab him at #3 to replace JJ Watt. I have seen that in a few mocks, too.
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