Behind the Numbers

[Mick063]

Wilson is too short to see from inside the pocket and has slowed down too much to consistently extend plays outside of the pocket.

Geno is executing the offense according to game plans that are conceived of days ahead of time. In other words, no improvising unless the defense forces it. Even then, he improvises adequately enough to not be a liability when a given play breaks down. Regardless, he doesn't rely on broken plays as a crutch (to the point where he intentionally creates broken plays) to compensate for his inability to see over interior lineman.

There....I saved you a ton of work. Besides, data points have a shelf life. Every year that Wilson slows another step, another rookie edge rusher with 4.35 speed is drafted to replace an old, slowing edge rusher, and although this may be equally true for Geno, his game is not predicated on beating edge rushers by spinning out of their grasp.

 

[Rock_the_Hawk]

So now, looking at Lock, I thought it probably made the most sense to start with the 5 games he played in 2019 first, to get a sense of how well he threw the ball at short, medium and long distances (same DOT study as with Russ and Geno). For context, i also thought it might be valuable to compare Drew to Josh Allen - another young QB who struggled early in his career, but then took off when he gained a bit more experience and had the benefit of a better relationship with his coaching staff. Graphic shows Drew and Josh combined. Drew over a limited 5 game sample, Josh, for the season:

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Its hard to say whether Drew would have maintained his level of performance over an entire season, or whether he may have improved. But in his first few starts, he wasnt spectacular, but he was better than Josh (or comparable) out to 20 yards and then significantly better from there out. Now the comparison should be tempered by the fact that Josh's numbers weren't spectacular (3000+ yards, 59% completion, 20/9 TD to INT). Good, but not great. Acceptable for a QB in his second year. The fact that drew threw for 1020 yards, 7 TD / 3 int's, and a 63% completion percentage in his first year is notable in the comparison. Over a season, maintaining that performance would have yielded 3060 yards, 21 TD and 9 Ints, 63% complete. Not bad, and better than what Josh did in his second year. You might think then , that if everything else was equal, and each QB had a siimlar trajectory in terms of their improvement, season to season, that Drew might be ahead in his growth. But the world doesn't always function in a linear fashion. The following year, Drew's coaching staff changed as did his offense. A Covid stricken season also truncated training camp activities and so Drew went from a position of what might have been strength, to essentially starting over in an unfamiliar system, with a staff that, by all accounts, didnt connect with him well, nor provided the degree of mentorship he received the year prior. Adding to the challenging year, Drew's best wr option would be J Jeudy, in his first season, with the same limited time to practice and become accustomed to the offense. Josh, on the other hand, entered the following year with 2 years of experience in Sean McDermott and Bryan Daybol's system along with seasoned Stefon Diggs as his new primary weapon - one of the best in the game.

The results are predictable:

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Josh's accuracy increased drastically at all depths, maintaining an above avg rate out to almost 35 yards, while Drew regressed considerably, falling well below average at all depths. So the question obviously is - can Drew reset the table in Seattle and build on a start that was better than what Josh Allen showed in his second year in a stable system, with consistent coaching? Again, each qb has his own specific strengths and weaknesses that ultimately dictate how high their respective ceilings will be, so an answer is impossible to accurately predict. What we can say for sure is Drew played pretty well coming off the bench in his rookie season, and then regressed the following year. How one can say that the shortened preseason and failure of team leadership that would occur the following two seasons had NO effect on his performance is difficult to understand. In my view, the question is - how much of Drew's regression was coaching.

Question, how much of Drews regression was coaching?

Its probably impossible to really know until Lock is back into a starting role so that he may prove him self one way or another .

In my opinion any QB with the amount of talent that Lock has definately will blossom with Pete Carroll as long as they buy in to what the team is doing, as Pete is going to put him in position for success as this is the staple of Pete Carrroll coached teams ,says history.

I think Carroll knows now if Lock will blossom as a Seahawk and we will know for sure when the draft comes. Will the seahawks use a high first round pick on a QB? Or do they view Drew lock as the future? At this point we just dont know.

Back to the question of coaching, yes i believe that culture and coaching have everything to do with a players success. I think this is being proven in Denver right now at the expense of Russell Wilson. Its clear to me that Carroll doesnt think Lock is ready or he would be starting. I think Geno is a perfect example of what happens to a player who is not brought along properly in the NFL. And what happens when a player is coached in a way that brings his confidence and physical attributes to a pinnacle well thats being proven right now with Geno Smith.

Just my take