Im getting sick of Pete's face.

Maelstrom787

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No, one couldn't argue that, as you clearly just threw a hissy fit over it. I didn't bring it into multiple threads, this is the first time I brought it up outside the original because I thought it was ironic when you brought up objectivity
And my points were objective regardless of your disagreement. End of discussion. They're backed up by data, and you don't agree with the conclusion reached. That's fine.
 

Maelstrom787

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"Holmgren would've won more with famously-compatible-with-the-WCO Russell Wilson"

I don't know who needs to hear this, but Russell Wilson would've been on the goddamn bench with Holmgren and Flynn would've been the quarterback.
 

hinton

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Homlgren would've won a lot more with that roster that's for sure.
Doubtful. there was one year under Holmgram we had a pretty stacked O but couldn't run the ball if our life depended on it. He weirdly announced midseason that we're just not gonna run anymore and had Hassebeeck running for his life for the rest of the season.

A great offensive mind, a good HC, a poor GM.
 

cymatica

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And my points were objective regardless of your disagreement. End of discussion. They're backed up by data, and you don't agree with the conclusion reached. That's fine.
No they weren't. The data shows getting an inside kick is way lower probability than a 3 and out. The data shows wasting a free timeout on top of going for an inside in that situation is a bad decision. The data shows losing all that field position plus the timeout makes it tougher to drive down the field. There's no logic to that decision except hoping for a miracle. You are ignoring real data that shows a much lower probability in getting success out of that decision.
 

Cyrus12

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No way Holmgren even drafts Russ...maybe Fade is right...5 championships with Matt Flynn
..
 

Maelstrom787

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No they weren't. The data shows getting an inside kick is way lower probability than a 3 and out. The data shows wasting a free timeout on top of going for an inside in that situation is a bad decision. The data shows losing all that field position plus the timeout makes it tougher to drive down the field. There's no logic to that decision except hoping for a miracle.
THEY'RE NOT THE CORRECT PROBABILITIES TO COMPARE. THEY ARE NOT THE PROBABILITIES I AM COMPARING.

YOU NEED A THREE-AND-OUT WHETHER YOU KICK IT DEEP OR FAIL THE ONSIDE.

You've been talking past me this entire time, comparing the probability of an onside recovery vs. a three-and-out and acting as if I'm ignoring it or lying about it when I've addressed it countless times. That is not the comparison I am making. It is not the comparison YOU want to make if the goal is to refute my point about the onside.
 

hugecanoli

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It’s halftime, I just made another cocktail and I actually looked forward to revisiting this post to read the updates.

This is turning into a classic. Mods, please take note and think about nominating this for at least some kind of award related to humor In response to our shitty season!
 

cymatica

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THEY'RE NOT THE CORRECT PROBABILITIES TO COMPARE. THEY ARE NOT THE PROBABILITIES I AM COMPARING.

YOU NEED A THREE-AND-OUT WHETHER YOU KICK IT DEEP OR FAIL THE ONSIDE.

You've been talking past me this entire time, comparing the probability of an onside recovery vs. a three-and-out and acting as if I'm ignoring it or lying about it when I've addressed it countless times. That is not the comparison I am making. It is not the comparison YOU want to make if the goal is to refute my point about the onside.
They are 100% the correct probabilities to compare. The onside wasted a timeout and gives horrible field position on top of risking putting Pittsburgh in FG range. The probability for getting an onside has to be considered or you are literally not using actual logic and data. The fact that you throw away the 2 minute warning to attempt it goes against it even more.

You are just confirming that you aren't objectively looking at the data
 

Spin Doctor

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Holmgren was done as an elite coach in the NFL, Holmgren even admitted that himself. He said he no longer understood the game like he used to. It was time for him to step away from the game.

I'm arguing that is where Carroll is now. When he came back into the NFL he defined the defensive meta in the NFL for years. His defenses even spurred rule changes. Now, Carroll is struggling to catch up with the modern NFL. Our defense hasn't been good for years now, and we've been unable to adapt our defense to the modern NFL.

Carroll isn't it anymore. We're going to keep floundering, maybe getting into the WC playoff spot, playing second fiddle to the Rams and 49ers. He's done as a top tier coach. He's also going to be the oldest coach to ever coach the game next season. We can't hold onto him forever, we need to start thinking about the future and whether or not Carroll fits into that future, which I don't think he does at this juncture.
 

Maelstrom787

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They are 100% the correct probabilities to compare. The onside wasted a timeout and gives horrible field position on top of risking putting Pittsburgh in FG range. The probability for getting an onside has to be considered or you are literally not using actual logic and data. The fact that you throw away the 2 minute warning to attempt it goes against it even more.

You are just confirming that you aren't objectively looking at the data
No, they are not. They absolutely are not the correct probabilities to compare, because again, you need the 3-and-out anyway.

The only chances that matter are how much the failed onside hurts your chances of winning the game overall vs. how much a successful onside helps them, weighed against the 5-6% chance of converting the onside.

It didn't matter worth a shit, anyway. The game was being lost. There was very, very, very, very little to lose.
 
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TAB420

TAB420

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So you put a weight limit on whether or not you love the person you’ve chosen to live your life with?
Lighten up Francis.
It’s halftime, I just made another cocktail and I actually looked forward to revisiting this post to read the updates.

This is turning into a classic. Mods, please take note and think about nominating this for at least some kind of award related to humor In response to our shitty season!
It's very entertaining. Don't get me wrong. I love what Pete has done for us. I just feel it's time to move on. I also feel like he gets more stubborn every year.
 

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