LOL @ Jets

[Popeyejones]

Asking Popeyejones to see reason on this is like asking a blind man to describe the color mauve.

Yeah, I'm stubborn as a mule on this one and being annoying as ch!t, but I believe this deeply, man.

I think JS and PC are smart, and I think it's undeniably smart to take players as you have evaluated them rather than falsely believing you can live inside other people's heads. You start doing stuff like that and you've mistakenly mischaracterized yourself as much smarter than you are or even could be.

It's not just about the NFL draft or sports either. As general rules for living: make decisions based on what you know and the knowledge you can actually have, not on things you can't know and the knowledge you can never actually obtain.

Another way to put this is that if the Eagles loved Wilson as much as they claim and they tried to sit on picking him until the third round because they thought they were smarter than everyone else then they're dumb as dirt and didn't deserve to get him in the first place. The exact same logic holds for the Hawks in the second round. If they did that this is a case of the Eagles being dumb and unlucky and the Seahawks being dumb and lucky.

As I said before though I don't think the Seahawks were "lucky" in taking Wilson. I just think they were less wrong about him than everyone else was, and that's really all it takes and all that matters.

:th2thumbs:

 

[chris98251]

Wilson / Montana both were under valued, both were taken in a place considered high by the experts, both made the experts and other GM's look like idiots, both had GM's saying in hindsight they should have could have would have.

It comes down to Pete and John as well as Bill actually pulling the trigger, the other teams had a chance for two rounds and into the 3rd to do so and didn't.

 

[Sterling Archer]

Bitter --

I see where you're going, but this is a theory of action that only a hardcore rational choice economist could actually believe in, as it presupposes that information asymmetry doesn't regularly and usually intervene. It's funny because even from the artificiality of game theory we know that people are actually smart enough to recognize that they don't live in other people's minds, even when they occasionally try to.

I only alluded to it at the end of the last post, but I think the below is a point worth making again:

When the Seahawks are accused of "reaching" in the draft (which they regularly are) Seahawks fans (rightly IMO) say 1) it doesn't matter where everyone else ranked the player and 2) there's no way to know where everyone else had ranked the player.

I think both of this things are absolutely true, and it's why I've never once chided the Seahawks for "reaching." If that's all true though than this "one time" theory for Russell Wilson doesn't make a damn lick of sense, though.

The Seahawks brass are either hyper-reactive to what they believe other people are thinking (a bad strategy) and willing to risk a franchise changing QB on thinking they know something they can't actually know, or their unreactive to what they believe other people are thinking (a good strategy) and they take players based where they fall in relation to other players on their draft board and sometimes in relation to positional need.

It simply can't be both at once, or the more favorable version in the preferable cases.

I mean, look, the Seahawks were definitively already more correct about Wilson's draft value than any other team in the NFL.

Trying to guild the lily beyond that and insisting they were even more correct than they were is just silly IMO.

It contradicts everything we know about how the Seahawks draft, and unwittingly in the process characterizes JS and PC as being much dumber than they actually are.

A lot of the Seahawks "reaches" turned out to not be the case once further information came out indicating that the player likely would not have lasted until their next pick. So really, the same theory is applied to all circumstances. I would caution you on believing that because ESPN or the general public believes a player is a reach, that other GMs think the same. No one would know this better than someone inside the front office and no one here is privy to that. This was true for Bruce Irvin which is why they chose him when they did and we've heard it regarding players the Seahawks were targeting that they missed out on (Morse last year).

Additionally, it's impossible for us to say that the Seahawks didn't have discussions regarding picking Wilson in the 4th round that year and simply chose against it. Because as you so eloquently pointed out, it is not possible to know what is inside someone else's mind with 100% accuracy.

I guess if your point is that the Seahawks could have lost out on Wilson by not picking him in the first round, that is true and no one here can argue that. But discounting Schneider's ability to identify Wilson's talent and potential simply because they waited until the third round is erroneous as well.

 

[SomersetHawk]

Pete had no idea Russ would be all that he's become, if he did there is absolutely NO WAY he waits til the 3rd.

They traded a boatload to move up for a guy they thought was a return man first, you don't gamble on a franchise quarterback.

Still, we valued him more than 31 other teams, that's good enough for me.

 

[Marvin49]

Honestly I thinks its just teams ability to quantify risk.

The Seahawks obviously really liked WIlson or they'd never have taken him at all. Same with the 49ers with Montana and same with the Patriots and Brady.

There are obviously no guarentees in any round, but the order in which you select a player or the round he's selected in has much more to do with risk than not liking a player or being able to spot a diamond in the rough.

Wilson had some knocks against him...namely his height. Not many QBs at his height have succeeded in the NFL so that increased the risk factor, but clearly wasn't any kind of guarantee of his eventual ability.

Some teams take risks on character. Some take risks on injury concerns.

In the case of a guy like Sherman the risk was that he was too slow to be efective and thats one of the reasons he fell so far. No matter how much they liked him, he'd have never been a 1st round pick because the risk was too high at that spot.

The really good GMs are the ones that take the right risks. Even the good ones tho don't hit on all of them.

 

[pehawk]

Pete had no idea Russ would be all that he's become, if he did there is absolutely NO WAY he waits til the 3rd.

They traded a boatload to move up for a guy they thought was a return man first, you don't gamble on a franchise quarterback.

Still, we valued him more than 31 other teams, that's good enough for me.

Gauging other's interest in a WR is not as an exact a science as QB's. Everyone needs a good WR.

Horrible example. Terrible really.

 

[drdiags]

Back to the OP. I see Woody's comment more about him wanting his FO and scouts to do a much better job in identifying the QB position than him pining over Wilson.

He acknowledges that Wilson is a great QB but there are others his guys missed on and it has been through a few regimes, with Tannebaum picking Sanchez and the former Seahawk FO guy picking Geno and others.

As far as the debate on Wilson that this article inspired, it just worked out that JS and PC hit on the 2012 class. They aren't mythical and they definitely don't seem to covet or hit on 1st round choices. But it is good for Seahawks lore to move them into legendary status because of the work they have done while together.

If you look at the historical dynasties of the 9ers, Cowboys and Steelers, they had some amazing talent drafted that kept them viable for a long period of time. Seahawks had the perfect melting pot when John and Pete got here. They cleared the dance floor of aging vets and let the young blood go out and make a name for themselves. Now with the top-heavy contracts in place they will tend more to the conventional way of roster management. At least until Earl, Sherman and others move out of their prime window. Pete and John may be gone at that point. Just a random thought I figured I would toss out there.

Now back to our regularly scheduled program.

 

[King Dog]

That's a brutal draft, but to be fair, there's probably about 25 or so other teams that are lamenting not drafting Wilson in the 2nd round right now. Hind sight is 20/20.

100% agreed.

It's easy to laugh now, but the Seahawks didn't take Wilson in the 2nd round either. Schneider wanted to but Carroll didn't like Wilson enough for that.

Wagner is a good player and Irvin is decent, but if the Hawks actually knew more than everyone else they obviously wouldn't have taken these guys before Wilson.

Heck, as the story goes the only reason the Broncos picked Osweiler instead of Wilson was because Wilson was two years older and they knew the QB they'd be taking would have to sit on the bench behind Manning for awhile. The Eagles were also trying to swing a trade to get ahead of the Hawks to take him, but couldn't find a partner. I mean heck, Wilson was texting with the Eagles throughout the draft.

Point being there's a ton of chance at work in all of this. Laughing at the Jets after the fact when the Seahawks were a trade partner away from still relying on Matt Flynn and Clipboard Jesus doesn't make much sense IMO.

What's really fantastic is the 49ers 2012 draft. Bwahahahahahaha

 

[SomersetHawk]

Pete had no idea Russ would be all that he's become, if he did there is absolutely NO WAY he waits til the 3rd.

They traded a boatload to move up for a guy they thought was a return man first, you don't gamble on a franchise quarterback.

Still, we valued him more than 31 other teams, that's good enough for me.

Gauging other's interest in a WR is not as an exact a science as QB's. Everyone needs a good WR.

Horrible example. Terrible really.

Putting your blatant angloism aside you're still never going to convince me that Pete knew Russ would be there in the 3rd, he just valued Bruce and Bobby more.

 

[RichNhansom]

That's a brutal draft, but to be fair, there's probably about 25 or so other teams that are lamenting not drafting Wilson in the 2nd round right now. Hind sight is 20/20.

100% agreed.

It's easy to laugh now, but the Seahawks didn't take Wilson in the 2nd round either. Schneider wanted to but Carroll didn't like Wilson enough for that.

Wagner is a good player and Irvin is decent, but if the Hawks actually knew more than everyone else they obviously wouldn't have taken these guys before Wilson.

Heck, as the story goes the only reason the Broncos picked Osweiler instead of Wilson was because Wilson was two years older and they knew the QB they'd be taking would have to sit on the bench behind Manning for awhile. The Eagles were also trying to swing a trade to get ahead of the Hawks to take him, but couldn't find a partner. I mean heck, Wilson was texting with the Eagles throughout the draft.

Point being there's a ton of chance at work in all of this. Laughing at the Jets after the fact when the Seahawks were a trade partner away from still relying on Matt Flynn and Clipboard Jesus doesn't make much sense IMO.

What's really fantastic is the 49ers 2012 draft. Bwahahahahahaha

Hey if they didn't draft AJ Jenkins in the first someone would have swooped in and grabbed him in the 6th or 7th round. And regretted that too.

I should use the sarcasm emote here though because our 1st round picks have been putrid also outside of Earl who really was our #2 rated safety behind Berry and even Thomas wasn't our first pick. That was Okung.

 

[ivotuk]

That's a brutal draft, but to be fair, there's probably about 25 or so other teams that are lamenting not drafting Wilson in the 2nd round right now. Hind sight is 20/20.

100% agreed.

It's easy to laugh now, but the Seahawks didn't take Wilson in the 2nd round either. Schneider wanted to but Carroll didn't like Wilson enough for that.

Wagner is a good player and Irvin is decent, but if the Hawks actually knew more than everyone else they obviously wouldn't have taken these guys before Wilson.

Heck, as the story goes the only reason the Broncos picked Osweiler instead of Wilson was because Wilson was two years older and they knew the QB they'd be taking would have to sit on the bench behind Manning for awhile. The Eagles were also trying to swing a trade to get ahead of the Hawks to take him, but couldn't find a partner. I mean heck, Wilson was texting with the Eagles throughout the draft.

Point being there's a ton of chance at work in all of this. Laughing at the Jets after the fact when the Seahawks were a trade partner away from still relying on Matt Flynn and Clipboard Jesus doesn't make much sense IMO.

First, I don't think anybody on this board would have thought it was a good idea to pass on a QB in the draft because they had just signed Sanchez to an extension and traded for Tebow.

In fact, even if they would have had the opportunity, I don't think anybody on this board would have signed Sanchez to an extension or traded for Tebow.

No hindsight there. Just LuLz

And I don't know why people (Mel Kiper) keep repeating "Even Seattle didn't know to pick him until the 3rd round." John Schneider was in Love with Russell Wilson and even thought about taking him in the first, and then again in the 2nd, but he had to be talked out of it. "According to our draft profiles, he will still be there at 75."

So it was a calculated risk, not luck or ignorance.

 

[chris98251]

That's a brutal draft, but to be fair, there's probably about 25 or so other teams that are lamenting not drafting Wilson in the 2nd round right now. Hind sight is 20/20.

100% agreed.

It's easy to laugh now, but the Seahawks didn't take Wilson in the 2nd round either. Schneider wanted to but Carroll didn't like Wilson enough for that.

Wagner is a good player and Irvin is decent, but if the Hawks actually knew more than everyone else they obviously wouldn't have taken these guys before Wilson.

Heck, as the story goes the only reason the Broncos picked Osweiler instead of Wilson was because Wilson was two years older and they knew the QB they'd be taking would have to sit on the bench behind Manning for awhile. The Eagles were also trying to swing a trade to get ahead of the Hawks to take him, but couldn't find a partner. I mean heck, Wilson was texting with the Eagles throughout the draft.

Point being there's a ton of chance at work in all of this. Laughing at the Jets after the fact when the Seahawks were a trade partner away from still relying on Matt Flynn and Clipboard Jesus doesn't make much sense IMO.

First, I don't think anybody on this board would have thought it was a good idea to pass on a QB in the draft because they had just signed Sanchez to an extension and traded for Tebow.

In fact, even if they would have had the opportunity, I don't think anybody on this board would have signed Sanchez to an extension or traded for Tebow.

No hindsight there. Just LuLz

And I don't know why people (Mel Kiper) keep repeating "Even Seattle didn't know to pick him until the 3rd round." John Schneider was in Love with Russell Wilson and even thought about taking him in the first, and then again in the 2nd, but he had to be talked out of it. "According to our draft profiles, he will still be there at 75."

So it was a calculated risk, not luck or ignorance.

Mel Kiper is going to have Russell Wilson on his face for ever, he was one of the harshest critics and he is going to forever try to find a reason to back peddle or justify his opinion at that time.

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

Mel Kiper is going to have Russell Wilson on his face for ever, he was one of the harshest critics and he is going to forever try to find a reason to back peddle or justify his opinion at that time.

Don't forget Bill "He'll be no more than a career backup" Polian, Chris. SomersetHawk obviously hasn't.


The "Commander and Chief" my ass.

 

[Popeyejones]

Do you guys think you'll ever get over some people being critical of Wilson's game before he was drafted? If so, how long do you think the fire of disrespect will burn for?

I'm being a smart @ss obviously, but it's also a real question.

As background I grew up rooting for a QB who was also drafted in the 3rd round and outperformed expectations.

 

[Uncle Si]

Do you guys think you'll ever get over some people being critical of Wilson's game before he was drafted? If so, how long do you think the fire of disrespect will burn for?

I'm being a smart @ss obviously, but it's also a real question.

As background I grew up rooting for a QB who was also drafted in the 3rd round and outperformed expectations.

Pointing out where other people were wrong is basically the point of the internet right now.

 

[chris98251]

I think it was the level of criticism for the pick that has struck the cord, those that didn't like it were very outspoken about how Wilson lacked so much and that some said was a wasted pick all together. They maintained it till season two and we then started to see them flip and back track or deny their initial claims.

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

Do you guys think you'll ever get over some people being critical of Wilson's game before he was drafted? If so, how long do you think the fire of disrespect will burn for?

I'm being a smart @ss obviously, but it's also a real question.

As background I grew up rooting for a QB who was also drafted in the 3rd round and outperformed expectations.

Kiper I don't hammer on much as he's not a true football guy. But Polian I enjoy reminding folks he said Russ would be a career backup cuz and to my knowledge has never admitted he was wrong. Everyone's wrong on a lot of players, but be willing to say so if you are.

 

[NINEster]

Wilson IMO was a low risk move for the Seahawks. They had signed Matt Flynn, and probably had no real pressure to turn in a playoff worthy season in 2012 outside of starting Flynn. It's akin to Harbaugh drafting Kaepernick after getting commitment for Alex Smith to return to the team. If Smith didn't return, then things probably play out differently.

Wilson definitely went to the best landing spot. Not only did you have the cliched defense and running game but a coach willing to tailor the entire offense around him.

They did the same for Griffin in Washington, but the draft investment was significantly higher, so in essence they had to. Carroll didn't have to do it, but did it anyway.

After leaving SF as a young kid and becoming a Niner fan, I've lived a majority of my life in NY. I hate the Giants but like the Jets and want to see them succeed. I would have liked the Jets to have gotten Wilson, but at the same time he probably would have been sabotaged and definitely not have grown as much. He has the resilience to probably become a good QB eventually on a dysfunctional team but the Jets in 2012 are nowhere near the Jets of today (and Wilson was too young to get on those '09/'10 Sanchez/Ryan teams). He even missed the 2011 draft where maybe he could have done something with the Jets.

I have to agree with assessment that Wilson was valued as a 3rd round QB by all 32 teams.

Even if Carroll valued him as a 2nd rounder, drafting him there would have put the Flynn signing in question. Certain things GMs and coaches just won't do.