blazen2392":zobfvtl1 said:
dopeboy206":zobfvtl1 said:
LymonHawk":zobfvtl1 said:
dopeboy206":zobfvtl1 said:
I know I'm going to get roasted for this cause everything I say is just a theory and there is no proof of games being fixed but sometimes it makes you wonder how can these casinos stay in business for so long...? That's because they win more than they lose to the public.
A lot of times I notice when it comes to sports betting the public loses more than the house (casinos) and looking at various betting sites....Currently the Seahawks are +1 underdogs at the moment. up to 98% of the public are betting on the Seahawks while only 2% is betting on the Eagles (money line)...76% are betting on the Seahawks to cover while only 24% is betting on the Eagles (point spread).
I find it odd how the public is heavily leaning towards the Seahawks on the road. And how lopsided it is that the underdog is getting more bets in than a -1 point favorite. I would of expected more balance like 55-45 or 60-40 Seahawks...
Not saying we are going to lose "like what I posted on the title" but it's going to be a very tough one to win and not as easy like some of us believe. With that said I hope we win go Hawks!
I'm not sure of the stats you are quoting...but if the betting is so one sided, wouldn't the 'spread' be changing?
Yeah it should...I'm guessing it should go down to Pick 'em or maybe Seahawks -1 at most if this trend doesn't change..
Don't read in to much on the public betting heavily on a road dog. The 49ers for a long while was every bettors best friend as a road underdog. They are quite possibly the best road team i have witnessed over the past two years.
Not that i love pointing it out :roll: but if you look at my previous threads i've called out some trap games. I called the ATL and Cards game, and i called out hawks loosing to the KC, and the Hawks blowing out The cardinals. Just from being a greedy betting bastard, I think i've learned pretty fairly well on how to call out trap games. If your looking for an example of a Trap game, check out the SD VS NE game. I haven't looked at the specifics, but i garantee 80% of the betting public will pound the Pats. I see the pats right out losing this game. SD is on a come up and they will play lights out at home. I would consider this a trap.
If you wan't to know another example of a possible upcoming trap game, If we win out the next two, expect the
hawks vs cardinals to be a Vegas trap. I have my doubts of us winning this game
Disposable money aside, you shouldn't be betting football. I am not dismissing your knowledge of football...just your knowledge of sports wagering. Both are equally important to long term success.
The VERY best handicappers (in the world) will be fortunate to hit at a consistent 65-70%. I'm talking guys that spend 60 hrs per week capping games and those long hrs are spent with great efficiency. There's a lot that goes into this and reading your post tells me you're not ready to be betting significant money or getting "greedy".
IE: I know of no bettors that trend towards betting "road dogs" just for the sake of betting road dogs. (Home dogs, maybe).
"80% of all bettors" will not be betting NE, so guaranteeing such a thing is as reckless as it is inaccurate.
Vegas doesn't intentionally set "trap lines". That is a common fallacy. Bettors that fail to see the potential for a team's let down, caught looking ahead to the next game, are not pro bettors. IF Vegas set a line only to "trap" certain (unknowing) bettors, it would require a ton of them because the big money would pour into the opposite side of that bet, creating undesired imbalance.
It's very important to understand Vegas does not play games when setting a line. Seldom, if ever, do they even care who wins a game. Vegas has one objective: Set a line that creates equal betting on both sides. They are in the business of gambling but have a system in place so they don't have to.
Do know while being critical, I am not being mean-spirited. Quite the opposite. Unless you're betting with guys like the OP, I suggest you study the science behind sports betting before laying another bet. In the interim, I wish you good luck.
All) I will not comment further on this in this thread. I have said nothing here that is even remotely debatable. So challenging my points here will go unanswered. I've beat this dead horse before. Only trying to help and more importantly, perhaps slow the spread of erroneous information. A "little knowledge" about gambling is like knowing a little about gun safety.
