I believe in the eye test as well, getting someone else to tell me what I am watching because either too lazy or don't want to invest in seeing it and breaking it down yourself, so much goes on that people don't include in breakdowns. We see historical tendencies, we see field, players missing and or added etc.
Yes I can be wrong, but learning more so next time I pick that up is building your football IQ.
But I also see these guys wrong a significant portion of the time, I read what others write here and the assessments that are generally more correct. Many of these guys are assigned a team and are not really invested to know much more then what's on the surface.