Seahawks favorites after 50,000 computer simulations

[RolandDeschain]

I never claimed Blount was better than Lynch. Perhaps you became sensitive because the stats show that he has a higher yards after contact not only this season but since 2010.

He's a power running back and excels at gaining yards after contact. That's above average. He's just another example of the versatility of the team that allows us to game plan for specific opponents. We can pass, pound the ball up the middle, our run to the outside with Vereen. Given Seattle's vulnerability up the middle, Blount will be used a lot this game.

BTW, we've played Lynch when he was in Buffalo. He was never really a factor against us.

Blah, blah, blah.

Yards after contact is misleading, most defenses the Patriots face don't give a stacked box against the run every down like the Seahawks face.

Look at the broken tackles numbers, where Marshawn SMOKES Blount by 200 miles. Every other back in the league for that matter, too. Here, since I'm a Pro Football Focus paid member, I'll give you the missed tackle numbers for the regular season going back two years, not three because Blount barely played in 2012:

Beast Mode:
2014: 88 (5.5 per game)
2013: 75 (4.69 per game)

Overrated NE Big Boy:
2014: 19 (1.19 per game)
2013: 26 (1.63 per game)

Conclusion: That random fat dude you have running in Boston isn't fit to hold Marshawn Lynch's jockstrap.

Now go home and get your friggin' shinebox.

 

[kearly]

Football Outsiders gives the Patriots a 50.5% chance to win, with the Seahawks obviously having a 49.5% chance.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

It's based on weighted DVOA, meaning that the most recent game each team played is having a huge impact on their numbers. The Patriots slipped just barely ahead of Seattle thanks to that weekend, but at the end of the regular season Seattle had a commanding lead over New England.

I think even football outsiders would caution against those odds, given that a huge outlier performance affected the Seahawks so much, and that the Patriots just happened to draw the team they own more than any other in the NFL.

 

[RolandDeschain]

It's based on weighted DVOA, meaning that the most recent game each team played is having a huge impact on their numbers. The Patriots slipped just barely ahead of Seattle thanks to that weekend, but at the end of the regular season Seattle had a commanding lead over New England.

I think even football outsiders would caution against those odds, given that a huge outlier performance affected the Seahawks so much, and that the Patriots just happened to draw the team they own more than any other in the NFL.

Aye, I know, Kearly; which is why I feel good about it, because weighted DVOA penalizes us - legitimately so - for our performance woes in the NFCCG, but we know our team isn't as bad as they looked there.

If say, the Pats and Seahawks had both won their championship games by exactly 17 points, FO would have us heavily favored, I think.

 

[Scottemojo]

Did someone really say the Jets D-line is better than Seattle's? According to FO, they are basically dead even, with Seattle being more slanted towards run stopping.

I like the Patriots, but I have never seen a less informed fanbase invade this place. I guess in the AFC East you can just point to Brady and Belichick any time someone talks shit. You have to try a little harder than that around here.

I have been saying that same thing all week, a Patriot fan knows one answer: Brady!

 

[kearly]

Blount is a very good RB, but Seattle stops slow RBs especially well. It's the fast RBs that give Seattle some issues.

I wouldn't be surprised if Lynch gets most of his yards in the 4th quarter. New England's D seems like the kind that will start strong but wear down against the run. I think they are going to have a very tough time defending Russell Wilson (as a runner) and his TE Luke Willson since it's very likely they'll be using man coverages. Wilson and Willson are going to be the two biggest studs in this game for Seattle. Or at the very least, the deck is stacked in their favor.

 

[marko358]

I never claimed Blount was better than Lynch. Perhaps you became sensitive because the stats show that he has a higher yards after contact not only this season but since 2010.

He's a power running back and excels at gaining yards after contact. That's above average. He's just another example of the versatility of the team that allows us to game plan for specific opponents. We can pass, pound the ball up the middle, our run to the outside with Vereen. Given Seattle's vulnerability up the middle, Blount will be used a lot this game.

BTW, we've played Lynch when he was in Buffalo. He was never really a factor against us.

Blah, blah, blah.

Yards after contact is misleading, most defenses the Patriots face don't give a stacked box against the run every down like the Seahawks face.

Look at the broken tackles numbers, where Marshawn SMOKES Blount by 200 miles. Every other back in the league for that matter, too. Here, since I'm a Pro Football Focus paid member, I'll give you the missed tackle numbers for the regular season going back two years, not three because Blount barely played in 2012:

Beast Mode:
2014: 88 (5.5 per game)
2013: 75 (4.69 per game)

Overrated NE Big Boy:
2014: 19 (1.19 per game)
2013: 26 (1.63 per game)

Conclusion: That random fat dude you have running in Boston isn't fit to hold Marshawn Lynch's jockstrap.

Now go home and get your friggin' shinebox.

 

[Scottemojo]

I never claimed Blount was better than Lynch. Perhaps you became sensitive because the stats show that he has a higher yards after contact not only this season but since 2010.

He's a power running back and excels at gaining yards after contact. That's above average. He's just another example of the versatility of the team that allows us to game plan for specific opponents. We can pass, pound the ball up the middle, our run to the outside with Vereen. Given Seattle's vulnerability up the middle, Blount will be used a lot this game.

BTW, we've played Lynch when he was in Buffalo. He was never really a factor against us.

Blah, blah, blah.

Yards after contact is misleading, most defenses the Patriots face don't give a stacked box against the run every down like the Seahawks face.

Look at the broken tackles numbers, where Marshawn SMOKES Blount by 200 miles. Every other back in the league for that matter, too. Here, since I'm a Pro Football Focus paid member, I'll give you the missed tackle numbers for the regular season going back two years, not three because Blount barely played in 2012:

Beast Mode:
2014: 88 (5.5 per game)
2013: 75 (4.69 per game)

Overrated NE Big Boy:
2014: 19 (1.19 per game)
2013: 26 (1.63 per game)

Conclusion: That random fat dude you have running in Boston isn't fit to hold Marshawn Lynch's jockstrap.

Now go home and get your friggin' shinebox.

LULZ. So Patriot boy was in here shining the fattie roller for breaking one tackle a game?

I honestly heard an ESPN hack call him Jerome Bettis part 2 today. Marshawn broke 15 tackles vs the pack and they were calling Faux Bettis the difference in the next game.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Aye, Scotte. Blount gets good production because defenses play farther back to respect Brady and their pass-first offense. Blount isn't in the same stratosphere as Lynch, and any Pats fan that thinks he is will find out otherwise in a few days despite our interior D-line being banged up. If we had Mebane, we'd shut Blount down to nothing.

 

[Laloosh]

I never claimed Blount was better than Lynch. Perhaps you became sensitive because the stats show that he has a higher yards after contact not only this season but since 2010.

He's a power running back and excels at gaining yards after contact. That's above average. He's just another example of the versatility of the team that allows us to game plan for specific opponents. We can pass, pound the ball up the middle, our run to the outside with Vereen. Given Seattle's vulnerability up the middle, Blount will be used a lot this game.

BTW, we've played Lynch when he was in Buffalo. He was never really a factor against us.

Blah, blah, blah.

Yards after contact is misleading, most defenses the Patriots face don't give a stacked box against the run every down like the Seahawks face.

Look at the broken tackles numbers, where Marshawn SMOKES Blount by 200 miles. Every other back in the league for that matter, too. Here, since I'm a Pro Football Focus paid member, I'll give you the missed tackle numbers for the regular season going back two years, not three because Blount barely played in 2012:

Beast Mode:
2014: 88 (5.5 per game)
2013: 75 (4.69 per game)

Overrated NE Big Boy:
2014: 19 (1.19 per game)
2013: 26 (1.63 per game)

Conclusion: That random fat dude you have running in Boston isn't fit to hold Marshawn Lynch's jockstrap.

Now go home and get your friggin' shinebox.

Yeah, playing bad tackling teams must be nice (for Blount). What do Russell's stats look like in the same categories, out of curiosity?