Hawknballs
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It was hard for me to have much perspective on this game analytically because I was there to witness it and never really had much doubt that the Seahawks would find a way at home to beat a winless team. My only major concern was that Tampa had played close games all season – was spotting them 21 points enough to finally turn their close losses into a win? Either way, as a fan in the stands I came away thrilled with a win and the crowd in general left with what I felt was a sense of being happy to be 8-1, not a sense of ‘wow we’re terrible’. So, there’s really no way for me to objectively analyze this game from an observational standpoint. From my perspective I got to be there as the Seahawks overcame their largest deficit in team history. I got to witness first-hand the lack of quit that this team has.
So, what I decided to do was analyze the game from the complete opposite side of the spectrum than the emotional fan-boy perspective I had already lived, and simply go through the game play by play and see which team actually made more plays. What I’ve done is gone through by quarter and simply added up the number of ‘positive’ plays each team had, and then noted any other significant plays they made to get a better summary of how each team did. I counted each offensive gain of 4+ yards as a positive for the offense, unless a shorter gain also gained a first down, and each gain of 2 yards or less as a positive for the defense, unless it was a longer gain but also a 3rd down stop that forced a punt. I then noted special plays like sacks and interceptions, and game-changing penalties. In the end here is what we get:
First Quarter: (end score: 0-0; Tampa driving)
TB Offense:
6 Positive Plays
SEA Defense:
5 Positive Plays
+Sack ( -11 yards)
-Pass Interference (Browner) – Ticky Tacky minor jersey grabbing
SEA Offense:
6 Positive Plays
-Interception; pass thrown behind the receiver
TB Defense:
7 Positive Plays
-Roughing the Passer penalty (helmet to helmet)
+Interception
Overall the large swing this quarter was the interception thrown by Wilson. It didn’t lead to any points for the Bucs but did in the very least take 3 easy points off the board for the Seahawks.
Second Quarter: (end score: 21-7 Tampa; half)
TB Offense:
12 Positive Plays
+2 Touchdowns
+1 Touchdown that should not have happened
SEA Defense:
7 Positive Plays
+ Phantom Pass Interference call on Earl Thomas; Should have been an INT
SEA Offense:
5 Positive Plays
+1 Touchdown
TB Defense:
3 Positive Plays
-Unnecessary Roughness
-Pass Interference
SEA Special Teams:
-Fumble (Kearse)
This is the quarter where Tampa did most of their damage. However, the PI call on Earl Thomas at the beginning of the quarter was clearly a bad call. There was a minor arm bar by ET, but nothing that was interfering with the receiver. What should have been an interception for the Seahawks turned into the Buc’s first 7 points. Add that to the Kearse fumble, and this game ends up looking a lot uglier than it was.
Third Quarter: (end Score: 24-14 Tampa; Seahawks driving)
TB Offense:
8 Positive Plays
+1 Field Goal
SEA Defense:
7 Positive Plays
SEA Offense:
7 Positive Plays
+1 Touchdown
TB Defense:
3 Positive Plays
SEA Special Teams:
71 Yard Punt Return (Tate)
A quarter that was largely all Seahawks, minus a TB drive for a field goal. The D seemed to clamp down really well and the offense got some things going and looked pretty sharp. The Punt return by Tate was huge, leading to a field goal to begin the 4th quarter that made it a one score game.
Fourth Quarter + Overtime: (end score: 27-24 Seahawks; end of game)
TB Offense:
6 Positive Plays
SEA Defense:
9 Positive Plays
+Sack (-7 Yards)
+Sack (-7 Yards, in overtime on third down to force a punt – critical stop)
SEA Offense:
16 Positive Plays
+Touchdown
+Field Goal
+Game Winning Field Goal in OT
-Red Zone Interception; ultimately led to no Tampa Bay points
TB Defense:
7 Positive Plays
+1 Interception
The only flaw in an otherwise dominant 4th quarter and overtime by the ‘Hawks was another uncharacteristic INT by Wilson in the red zone when we should have been feeding the beast. Other than this miscue that led to no Tampa points, the Seahawks dominated on both sides of the ball.
In Summary:
The second quarter of this game was no doubt awful. However it’s important to note that the PI call on Earl Thomas that led to a Tampa touchdown should have been an interception. The contact on the play was so minor that only a ref looking for an excuse to throw the flag would have called it. For whatever reason this officiating crew was pretty rough on the hawks in this regard. The PI call on Browner earlier was a little Ticky Tacky itself but not nearly as awful as the Thomas call. It was inexcusably bad and got the ball rolling for Tampa. The Kearse fumble didn’t help matters, either. There are two touchdowns right off the bat that you can’t hang too much blame on the ‘Hawks defense for. It would have been nice to see some stops, and we were letting their running back gash us quite a bit early. However it was easy to see the hawks begin to take the game over going into the half and as the third quarter went along they started to play Seahawks football. I actually feel MUCH better about this game after re-watching it from a non-emotional point of view. If this game were played 10 more times at the clink I’d have a hard time picking against the hawks in any case.
Fun Fact of the week:
The Good:
• Titans over Rams
• Jets over Saints
• Panthers over Falcons
• Bears over Packers
A quartet of positive results here. The Jets beating the Saints is huge as it puts the Saints in must-win mode for several of their harder matchups the rest of the way, including games against the 49ers and Seahawks, if they want to keep hopes of the #1 seed alive. With the exception of a tie, either the Saints or 49ers are guaranteed to have at least one more loss by the time we face them. A win by the Panthers keeps them on a roll, and hungry, as they prepare for a game at San Francisco this weekend. They also face the Saints twice more before the end of the year. The Bears taking out the packers evens the NFC north up at 5-3 for the three relevant teams in that division. With Rodgers out and the Bears banged up, my money is on the Lions to take that division. Aside from games against the Packers and Bears, the Lion’s schedule consists of all teams with sub-.500 records.
The Not-So-Good:
• Cowboys over Vikings
• Redskins over Chargers
• Eagles over Raiders
These results aren’t super devastating but should still be mentioned just in case the wheels fall off and we have to actually fight for a wild card spot so I will continue to include them. The Cowboys are one of the most inconsistent teams out there. The Redskin’s win and Viking’s loss pretty much dash any hopes that we will catch up with the 49ers when it comes to the strength-of-victory tie breakers.
Note: this is not list of picks based on teams I believe will win, or necessarily want to win. Picks in Green are simply the teams for which a win helps the Seahawks a.) Make the playoffs and b.) attain a high playoff seed.
The Walter Jones Division (important games):
Carolina @ San Francisco
No mystery here.
Philadelphia @ Green bay
NFC Team with worse record > NFC Team with better record. Kick Green Bay while Rodgers is down. Don’t Hate Golden Tate.
Dallas @ New Orleans
I feel dirty, but this week I hope Tony Romo finds a way to not fail in the end like Tony Romo.
The Ben Obomanu Division (games of moderate significance):
Detroit @ Chicago
I’m picking Chicago here only for the point I mentioned above – the Lions have an incredibly easy schedule minus their divisional matchups with the Packers and Bears, whereas the Packers and Bears play a couple more quality opponents. So, the idea here is to make sure the Lions don’t do something crazy like go on a long run of wins – which I think they are entirely capable of doing as long as Megatron is on the field and Stafford is chucking him the rock.
St. Louis @ Indianapolis
I’m hoping for a strong showing by the Rams, as it would make me feel better about how we looked against both of these teams. I’m not a big believer in rooting FOR a division rival because of where they might draft; the draft is a crap shoot anyways – and in this case, a Rams loss does not give another NFC team a win so it’s an obvious pick.
Houston @ Arizona
See: Rams @ Colts
The Kelly Jennings Division (games that, like Jennings himself, don’t really matter.)
Washington @ Minnesota
Washington only really factors in from a strength of victory standpoint but it’s pretty improbable at this point that this will end up mattering in the end.
Oakland @ NY Giants
It’s the Kelly Jennings division for a reason. I realize it’s taboo, but now that we are so far removed from being Raider-Rivals I find myself rooting for them more often than not. I was pretty young when the Seahawks-Raiders rivalry was very heated.
Miami @ Tampa Bay
This game is almost not worth mentioning, but I’m throwing it in here for one reason – Schiano is a classless amateur of a coach. From his “kneel down blitzes” last year to watching the obvious cheap shots the Tampa D was taking on Wilson there is no room for that kinda guy in the coaching fraternity of the NFL. So here’s to hoping a humiliating Monday night loss is enough to finally see him out the door.
Seahawks @ Falcons
Seahawks:
Pass Offense: 27
Rush Offense: 5
Total Offense: 13
Scoring: 10
Pass Defense: 2
Rush Defense: 19
Total Defense: 2
Scoring: 3
Turnover Differential: +6
Falcons:
Pass Offense: 5
Rush Offense: 32
Total Offense: 12
Scoring: 18
Pass Defense: 19
Rush Defense: 20
Total Defense: 21
Scoring: 25
Turnover Differential: -7
Vegas Opening Spread:
Seattle -6.5
The Falcons:
I admittedly haven’t watched the Falcons play much this year so my analysis is pretty much going to be focused on the facts and stats. A few things immediately stood out to me about Matt Ryan’s numbers. His completion percent is pretty good at nearly 68% and he’s only been sacked 14 times, so his protection has been decent. On the flip side he’s throw 10 picks and is only averaging 7.3 yards per completion. Not horrible but sort of middle of the road and puts him at that point in the stats where you go from the down-field passers to the dink-and-dunk passers. On one hand it seems like he’s being conservative in his throws, going for short high-percentage passes – on the other hand, he’s thrown double-digit picks. Atlanta is dead last in the league in rushing, averaging 64 yards a game. Tampa and St. Louis both rushed for 200 yards against our defense, so it would make sense to keep attacking this perceived weakness even with a trend of a poor run game on your side. I can’t see us getting gashed three weeks in a row, however, and while they may make some plays in the running game I don’t see us letting them keep it going the whole time. Stephen Jackson hasn’t done much as a Falcon. I’m more concerned about screens and tosses to the outside to Jacquizz Rodgers than I am about any sort of down-hill rushing attack. We’ve had a difficult time wrapping guys up, and Rodgers made a couple good plays against us last year in limited opportunities in the playoffs. We MUST stay home and tackle and force a QB to beat us with his arm, and let the Legion of Boom take that ball away. It will be interesting to see if Red Bryant plays after suffering a concussion this past Sunday.
The Seahawks:
This one is pretty straight forward: Stop the run, and run the football. We ran the ball fairly effectively against Tampa but it was a mess against the Rams. Last time out, the Falcons contained Marshawn and held him to 46 yards on 16 carries; if that happens again, we will lose the game. Offensively, Russell Wilson should have some chances for a lot of passing yards. The Falcon’s secondary doesn’t lack talent, but they do lack some experience and cohesion as a unit. It’s a pass defense that can be schemed. We should find out this week just how impactful the loss of Sidney Rice is. If the O-line holds up, but the passing game is still a struggle, it will raise some concerns about exactly how much we will miss him. At least until we can get Harvin back and firing away; then it will be time to re-evaluate things. What we can’t do on the road at 10 AM is turn the ball over. That’s a given.
Defensively we need to not let the league’s worst rushing team run on us, and we must not let Matt Ryan’s efficient underneath passing game march down the field all day long on us. Press the receivers, and force them to try to go deep on us. This might be a game where we stray a bit from leaving Earl on an island to cover the field, and actually drop Kam back in more deep zone to try to create some turnovers if we can get them throwing deep; but that is all predicated on shutting down the running game and the dink and dunk junk that Atlanta’s been doing lately. Then again, they are 2-6 playing that style of football so we can win that way as well – we just need to capitalize on our offensive opportunities in that scenario rather than relying on turnovers.
The Verdict:
In the end I think this is going to be another difficult game to watch. Russell Wilson was pulverized by punishing hits from the Bucs defense, some of which were dirty and drew the flags to prove it. We are as unhealthy as ever on the O-line with Okung and Giacomini still out, and Unger’s status is up in the air after suffering a concussion. It’s also a 10 AM game on the road. We may be winning those games this season as opposed to losing them, but it is a detriment no matter how much you minimize it. It’s body clock, and science, and there’s no other way to look at it. We really need some time to regroup as a team but we aren’t at the bye week yet. If we can pull this one out, and get a win against the Vikings, and somehow head into the bye at 10-1, I’m not sure we could ask for being in a better position heading into the rest of our schedule.
Originally I was leaning towards picking the Falcons for all the reasons I just mentioned, however after re-watching the game against Tampa, it wasn’t nearly as ugly as the St. Louis game was. I actually saw a lot of good things happening. I think we gut out another tough win.Down 17-7 in the 4th Quarter, the ‘Hawks do what they do and put 10 points on the board, with a last second Haushka kick to tie it up as time expires. Hawks win the toss, and RW does what RW does and drives us down the field. No need to settle for a field goal and give the Falcons a chance; beast mode takes it in from 17 yards out to put the game away. In similar fashion and identical score as last year’s game against the Bears, this win signals the arrival of the Seahawks we’ve been waiting for as healthy players return to the line-up after this one.
