Hawknballs
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This wasn’t a pretty game but it wasn’t as bad as several really ugly plays made it look. There wasn’t a point where I felt like it was in doubt, mainly due to the fact that the Titans couldn’t run the ball and knowing that Fitzpatrick and mediocre receivers weren’t going to be able to sustain more than a drive or two against our defense at home. Still, there were some concerns. For starters, Brandon Browner was out of position to make plays several times in the first half. Pete said he took him out of the game for a while to show him pictures so he could settle down and get a better idea what was happening. It could have been a scheme thing that the Titans stressed and executed, which happens at times even to good players. Pick on a few of their tendencies and make some plays. The good news is that he seemed to get it figured out and was back out there in the second half playing well. The bad news, for Browner anyways, is that Thurmond stepped in and played really well – something he’s done whenever he’s been healthy. As the oldest member of the Legion of Boom, Browner might be the most expendable. Which is too bad because if we don’t retain him, I could easily see him putting on a 49ers Jersey.
The second area of concern continues to be 3rd down. Seattle ranks 28th in the league with a miserable 32.1% conversion percent on 3rd down. We weren’t much better on Sunday, going 5 of 13, or just over 38%. However a lot of that has to do with the fact that we’ve been missing four or five starters on offense every week. I would expect that to improve as we get healthier. Unger was a big improvement in his return, and it looks like Zach Miller should be back this week.
Overall though, this game wasn’t as close as the score would indicate. The titans only scored a TD on a fluke of a play that shouldn’t have ever happened to begin with. Even without the hind-sight of that catastrophe, I would have rather seen us go for it than attempt a field goal without our kicker. Furthermore, I’m not sure why a backup safety is out there handling the snap over a backup QB. The Sidney Rice fumble was pretty bad. There was no real reason for him to be stretched out leaving the ball hanging out there like that. It was a 1st and 10 pass play that earned 13 yards. These two bad fumbles where sandwiched in between four scoring drives of 60+ yards. This game was much closer to something like a 30-6 win than 20-13. The Titans had no running game, with their backs rushing for 33 yards on 14 carries, and they only mustered just over 200 yards of total offense. Meanwhile Seattled racked up 404 yards, rushing for over 150 as a team. Wilson was accurate, completing 74% of his passes for 257 yards. Not bad against a team that has been top 10 in total defense so far this season.
Fun Fact of the week:
Russell Wilson is 11-0 at home in his career; in those games, the Seahawks have defeated their opponents by an average of 20 points.
The Good:
• Patriots over Saints
Probably one of the more important results for us when it comes to keeping an eye on the #1 seed.
The Neutral:
• Panthers over Vikings
• Eagles over Bucs
Neither of these results went the way I was leaning, but neither winner is a threat to be a factor yet.
The Not-So-Good:
• Bears over Giants
• Lions over Browns
• Packers over Ravens
• Rams over Texans
• 49ers over Cardinals
• Cowboys over Redskins
A lot of these results are going to end up in the ‘not so good’ category for the simple fact that we are usually banking on the better teams to lose the game. Still, it wasn’t a great week. The Saints losing salvages things a bit but the losers here did us no favors.
Note: this is not list of picks based on teams I believe will win, or necessarily want to win. Picks in Green are simply the teams for which a win helps the Seahawks a.) Make the playoffs and b.) attain a high playoff seed.
The Walter Jones Division (important games):
Bengals @ Lions
Don’t sleep on the Lions. They have great players on both sides of the ball. The only thing that’s been holding them back has been a lack of great coaching. If they can get that figured out they are going to be dangerous.
Bears @ Redskins
Our wild-card opponent from last year looks pretty bad so far this year. Hopefully they can get it together at home to help us out.
Rams @ Panthers
Are the Rams that great or are the Texans just terrible? I think the Texans are just terrible. The Rams are good on D but they barely managed 200 yards of offense.
49ers @ Titans
It’s too bad locker is still out, because if he plays I could see the Titans winning this game. Fitzpatrick is a serviceable back-up. Serviceable back-ups don’t beat good teams when they don’t have a running game to help them out, though.
Browns @ Packers
The Packers lost Randall Cobb and James Jones in one game last week; no word yet if Jones will play but this might be Weeden’s chance to shi…er…well. Okay. It might be his chance to play pretty okay and still probably lose.
The Ben Obomanu Division (games of moderate significance):
Buccaneers @ Falcons
Here’s to evening out their records and demoralizing the Falcons into nothingness before we play them. I wonder if Tony Gonzales is wishing he was retired and relaxing right now.
Cowboys @ Eagles
Tough pick here that could go either way, but the Cowboys have what I think is a more sustainable offense. Despite some tough injuries, they are the more complete team. Plus, they are the Cowboys. F the Cowboys.
The Kelly Jennings Division (games that, like Jennings himself, don’t really matter.)
Vikings @ Giants
I’ve been on the ‘crush the giants before we play them!’ trip for a few weeks now. Consider them crushed.
Seahawks @ Cardinals
Seahawks:
Pass Offense: 22
Rush Offense: 2
Total Offense: 8
Scoring: 8
Pass Defense: 4
Rush Defense: 15
Total Defense: 4
Scoring: 3
Turnover Differential: +7
Cardinals:
Pass Offense: 15
Rush Offense: 23
Total Offense: 23
Scoring: 25
Pass Defense: 24
Rush Defense: 8
Total Defense: 21
Scoring: 12
Turnover Differential: -2
Vegas Opening Spread:
Seattle -4.5
I was surprised to put the stats together and note how low the Cardinals were in so many offensive and defensive categories. I was also surprised that they give up a lot of passing yards but not much rushing. Aside from the Saints and Lions, they haven’t exactly faced any prolific passers to skew the stats too much. They have played four of their first six games on the road, however, and won both of their home games. An important stat to keep in mind – they are 30th in the league on third down, converting 31.5% of the time. They don’t have a strong running game, averaging 3.8 yards per attempt and 85 yards per game (compared to 4.6/158 for Seattle).
Last week, I was off about my prediction just a bit but I did nail this part - “I see us shutting down the run and forcing two or three interceptions in this game ala the last time we faced Fitzpatrick”. I think the same thing will hold true with this game.. Our offense will struggle against a tough defense, but we will do enough to win yet another not-so-pretty game on the road. We could have a hard time running the ball and will be slow to abandon that tactic; so I could see us being down by a score at the half and then making the proper adjustments late.
To me this will be a game where both teams struggle to move the ball, especially on the ground – and it will come down to which QB can protect the football and make a few plays. Carson Palmer has already thrown 11 picks and is completing less than 60% of his passes. He does throw the ball a lot more than Wilson but his rate of interceptions is twice as high at 5%. If we can shut down their running game and force Palmer to throw it 35-40 times, I would take the over on 2 picks. We know how important turnovers can be, and after Sunday’s fumble-fest, I think the team message of this short week will be to just play our game and protect the football. We are second in the league with 17 interceptions/recovered fumbles. Arizona gives the ball away 2.5 times per game vs. Seattle at .6. It’s always easy to say turnovers will be the difference in a game, but on the road on a short week I think it will be the obvious one here.
Final Score:
Seahawks 20
Cardinals 16
