balakoth":2zpzs2ah said:
I dislike this narrative. Great RUss throws a great deep ball. But, when you repetitively throw it "big play" pass on 3 and..... 7... it gets stale.. it gets easily deciphered by a cover 3 scheme to the defense.
We agree that the core problem in this hypothetical is that it was third and long.
balakoth":2zpzs2ah said:
What about sustaining a drive first, using a short passing and seam route system, to then open up better power runs and without running game with Carson an explosive play action deep pass attack gain.
The running game causes you to have more third downs (bad) but the entire point is that they will be manageable (good). If it is 3rd and 7 after two runs then we're talking about a huge problem with the running game, not a fundamental scheme issue. If you look at the four teams left in the playoffs the Chiefs had 4.2 YPC, the 49ers had 4.6 YPC, the Packers had 4.4 YPC, and the Titans had 5.0 YPC.
Passing is the high variance/high expected value option where you should expect to have fewer third downs but when you do face them it is more likely they were third and long (two failed passes in a row).
I don't agree with the rest of your argument. Having unrealistic expectations worsens your ability to distinguish between success and failure.
