Who has the better WR corps?

[nsport]

Why the big cry over Denver's receiving corps?

I think admittedly that DThomas is legit. If you call Seattle's best and Denver's best out and compare I think it's fair to say DT > Tate

I don't honestly think that you can say pound for pound, skill for skill that Decker > Tate or Baldwin - in fact he might be somewhat equal or less than them. His big advantage is height and the type of routes he runs. I think it's very safe to say that Harvin is better than Decker, and in fact may be as impactful as DThomas.

Welker is a bit of an enigma. He was NOTHING before Brady. Then he figured out his aggressive slot play with Brady and that's been his career. 10 YPC average his entire career - 3rd down slot receiver. Great at what he does, but is he truly "great"? Me thinks not now that his replacement had an incredible year in NE. He's just tough for a traditional 4-3 or 3-4 defense to cover with a LB and most teams don't have a Nickel or Safety that can do the job. Bingo - that's 100 receptions when you target him 10 times a game. He's basically a running back with a great yards-per-carry average.

So all of this Bronco-apologist stuff is driving me crazy. They're a good squad but not great. They achieve because of Manning only. If the reverse were true, I'd fairly look at it the other way, but it's not. In fact, I'd say that with our young corps, we have several interchangeable parts - which may make it more difficult - especially with the return of Harvin.

 

[jewhawk]

Umm, Denver. Definitely. That being said, our WR corps is underrated by about 98% of non-Seahawks fans around the nation. We don't pass much and we telegraph with a friggin' bullhorn when we do with our 5th-grade-level formations.

If we come out passing, I think we can surprise the hell out of the Broncos defense. I hope we do.

This 100%.


Salish,

I'm a huge fan of DVOA as a team stat and DVOA/DYAR as a QB stat, but it really means nothing for WRs. I don't know how it's calculated or why it's so flawed, but you don't have to look farther than the top 10 WRs by DVOA this year to know that it means nothing:

1. Kenny Stills
2. Doug Baldwin
3. Marvin Jones
4. Eddie Royal
5. Keenan Allen
6. Jordy Nelson
7. Demaryius Thomas
8. Jerricho Cotchery
9. Anquan Boldin
10. DeSean Jackson

Some other notable laughable rankings from the list include 15. Megatron, 17. Josh Gordon (in a year he flat out dominated), 40. AJ Green, 53. Larry Fitzgerald, 55. Andre Johnson, and 57. Vincent Jackson.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Jewhawk, Football Outsiders penalizes receivers for taking a pass 80 yards to the house is the opposing player makes a boneheaded mistake that lets them get free, just as one example. Plus, they don't care very much about total yardage. Look at the rankings of what you'd consider to be the top five receivers in the game for each of the last 3-4 years, I think you might be surprised.

 

[Omaha]

Someone's opinion before the start of the season http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap100000 ... -rank-no-1

 

[DrDix]

I take our receiver corps for various reasons.

I don't care about stats. I care about plays being made when they need to be made. That's what it comes down to and there is none better at that than our WRs.


Doug Baldwin, especially, is incredible. He always comes through. All I can remember is the various incredible catches he has made having to keep his feet inbounds.

 

[BirdsCommaAngry]

If I need a WR to be the focal point of my pass-heavy, offensively-based team, give me Thomas. If I need a WR to have ice in his veins and make a few crucial plays while not hamstringing my ability to keep my run-game and defense locked and loaded with a "#1" WR contract, give me Baldwin. "Better" depends entirely on context and right now, both our teams are looking just fine in the WR department.

 

[jewhawk]

Jewhawk, Football Outsiders penalizes receivers for taking a pass 80 yards to the house is the opposing player makes a boneheaded mistake that lets them get free, just as one example. Plus, they don't care very much about total yardage. Look at the rankings of what you'd consider to be the top five receivers in the game for each of the last 3-4 years, I think you might be surprised.

I'm pretty sure FO doesn't chart every play individually to account for those things the way PFF would. FO's calculations are based on what you would see in the box score and adjusted for things like quality of opponent, down and distance, time and score, etc., but an 80 yard TD catch is an 80 yard TD catch no matter how it's caught. They even admit they can't adjust their catch rate stats to differentiate incomplete and dropped passes and that their numbers can't separate the performance of QBs and WRs on passing plays. I think the three best WRs this year were Calvin Johnson, Josh Gordon, and AJ Green, but they ranked 15th, 17th, and 40th by DVOA because they had low catch rates, ignoring that those low catch rates were due to constant double teams and/or QB issues.

 

[davidonmi]

Someone's opinion before the start of the season http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap100000 ... -rank-no-1

that is almost spot on, with Jones no one is going to argue ATL was #1 (without gonzo next season prbly not)
I still contend SF is #2 when they have crabtree, then I think Denver comes in at 3. With Harvin we're around 7 or 8, without him we're around 12 or 13, not only because of harvin but because of what he does for Baldwin, Tate, and Miller.

I think the people arguing our WR's are better need to take off their glasses. But the discrepancy isn't as big as some think.

 

[davidonmi]

just look at peyton manning prior to this season, there's no 5,500 yards and 55 TD's, and don't tell me he got better after some surgeries that have weakened his arm (noticably.
The WR's have to play a big part in this, offenses just aren't this prolific, ever, even with other great QB's. The only one comparable being the 2007 patriots who had randy moss

 

[Laloosh]

Someone's opinion before the start of the season http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap100000 ... -rank-no-1

that is almost spot on, with Jones no one is going to argue ATL was #1 (without gonzo next season prbly not)
I still contend SF is #2 when they have crabtree, then I think Denver comes in at 3. With Harvin we're around 7 or 8, without him we're around 12 or 13, not only because of harvin but because of what he does for Baldwin, Tate, and Miller.

I think the people arguing our WR's are better need to take off their glasses. But the discrepancy isn't as big as some think.

I see what you're saying but I can't help but feel like a lot of our completions are from come backs and back shoulder throws to the sideline that aren't going to result in a lot of extra yards.

Manning throws a lot of screens, short crossing routes and mid-range come backs against soft coverage that turn into about 4 YAC on average. His guys get more targets on higher percentage routes.

Our guys tend to have longer developing routes and often have to adjust to whatever Russell is doing in (by in, I mean outside of) the pocket.

Zack is obviously not a receiving TE and we lack size due to Rice's injury but with Rice and Harvin in the mix, I think we have a top 5 corps with a more pass oriented scheme.

 

[Hawksalot4277]

Decker had nothing prior to Peyton cause he had fricken tebow throwing it to him, he's not the 9th best receiver in this game

Of course that's fair, but he was also a nothing-receiver in his rookie year with Orton (who passed for about as many yards as RW). Granted, rookie years for receivers don't mean much, and I'm guessing he was buried on their bench. Still, just highlights the fact that these receivers are nearly impossible to compare because their situations are so different.

No one in this group is a blue-chip stud that was taken at the top of the draft and excelled with mediocre or average QBs (e.g. Calvin, Green, Andre Johnson, Julio, etc.).

Neither Matt Stafford nor Matt Ryan are mediocre or average.

 

[DavidSeven]

Decker had nothing prior to Peyton cause he had fricken tebow throwing it to him, he's not the 9th best receiver in this game

Of course that's fair, but he was also a nothing-receiver in his rookie year with Orton (who passed for about as many yards as RW). Granted, rookie years for receivers don't mean much, and I'm guessing he was buried on their bench. Still, just highlights the fact that these receivers are nearly impossible to compare because their situations are so different.

No one in this group is a blue-chip stud that was taken at the top of the draft and excelled with mediocre or average QBs (e.g. Calvin, Green, Andre Johnson, Julio, etc.).

Neither Matt Stafford nor Matt Ryan are mediocre or average.

Matt Ryan is elite, but Julio was still a blue-chip prospect and would have been successful in any system. Matt Stafford, meh. There are 32 starting NFL QBs; he ranks somewhere in the middle. Definition of average.

 

[Breaker]

Of course our WR's would have better stats if they played with Manning, but IMO there's still no comparison...........of ALL the comparisons this week, the WR corps are the biggest discrepancy. Stats and depth wise, the Broncos have the better WR.

A healthy Harvin makes it closer, but even then I give the advantage to Denver for WR's.

Football Outsiders doesn't. Across the board, FO gives higher DVOA ranks to Baldwin over DThomas, Kearse over Decker and Tate over Welker.

Kenny Stills is the best WR in football, hands down. O wait.

 

[Hawksalot4277]

Decker had nothing prior to Peyton cause he had fricken tebow throwing it to him, he's not the 9th best receiver in this game

Of course that's fair, but he was also a nothing-receiver in his rookie year with Orton (who passed for about as many yards as RW). Granted, rookie years for receivers don't mean much, and I'm guessing he was buried on their bench. Still, just highlights the fact that these receivers are nearly impossible to compare because their situations are so different.

No one in this group is a blue-chip stud that was taken at the top of the draft and excelled with mediocre or average QBs (e.g. Calvin, Green, Andre Johnson, Julio, etc.).

Neither Matt Stafford nor Matt Ryan are mediocre or average.

Brady, Peyton, Rogers, Brees, Big Ben, Rivers, Flacco, Romo, and MAYBE Eli. Who else you gonna

Matt Ryan is elite, but Julio was still a blue-chip prospect and would have been successful in any system. Matt Stafford, meh. There are 32 starting NFL QBs; he ranks somewhere in the middle. Definition of average.

Brady, Peyton, Rogers, Brees, Rivers, Big Ben, Flacco , Romo, Luck and MAYBE Eli. Who else you gonna take over Stafford? Foles? After 1 season? Kaepernick, Wilson or RGIII? Newton? Maybe. Cutler? No. I see him as 10 or 11. Not really average, definitely not mediocre.

 

[Breaker]

This is without a doubt one of the silliest things I have ever read.

Put away the crack pipe, grab pen and paper, and then chart where Payton throws his passes. Our offenses are so dissimilar in construct that comparing numbers is just insane.

I'm with Kip on this one. Get all the defensive coordinators to weigh in on this question and there is no way they would not take the Denver guys over ours.

But that's the point ScottE. Denver uses a different system. They throw more often so of course the WR's get more yards. Peyton throws to different areas, yes.

But DVOA measures how successful a player is per play. How often did they get a successful reception (did the 3rd down catch get a first down?) not just how many yards did they rack up. And DVOA ranks Baldwin as the #2 receiver in the NFL. He may run different routes and have a different QB throwing less often from a different system, but he's more successful than DThomas is in Denver's system. The whole point of prorating what Baldwin would do if he were thrown to as often as Denver throws the ball was to illustrate that Baldwin is actually doing more with less than DThomas is doing. The same holds true for Kearse over Decker and Tate over Welker. All three of our WR's are better per play than Denver's receivers are. They get more first downs, they make more successful catches.

If Pete opened up the offense to Wilson, it wouldn't matter that our guys ran different routes than Peytons guys or threw to different areas of the field, we'd have a better corps of receivers to throw to than he does. But people look to big numbers, flashy stats. Denvers offense is sexy. Ours is smashmouth. Wilson looks like he had an awful day out there and yet he posts amazingly good numbers.

Because his receivers are actually quite amazingly good.

And while Kip may say that the defensive coordinators wouldn't pick our guys, I say that the offensive coordinators didn't pick Baldwin. He was an UDFA. Who caught the ball for Luck at Stanford. He was the second best rated WR on FO for the championship weekend behind DThomas by 1 point. And DThomas was playing catch vs NE, while Baldwin did it vs SF.

The proof's in the pudding, as they say.

I am really glad all you Seahawk fans feel that way, because this means Moreno (DVOA #13) is a better than Lynch (DVOA 17).

 

[IndyHawk]

Their WR corps is a lot lot lot lot lot lot lot better

I think Manning makes them so..

 

[KDshouldBeOurMJ]

In my opinion pro-rating stats doesnt work and cant be applied for the simple fact that you cant say tate baldwin or kearse would have more yards than them because they have a better drop to target ratio. There is nothing telling me they would be able to all produce the YAC DT does. The reason our recievers arent number 1 calliber recievers like they are is because they simply dont get the seperation denver recieving corps do because they dont run their routes as good as DT or welker does. We have ALL seen that Tate and Badwin can make the spectacular catchs as good if not better than any number 1 guy out there, including bebe. Getting Harvin back could help Tate and Baldwin get there, since it will give russ the time he needs to throw being that they wont be able to blitz as much with Harvin sitting in the slot. The reason the Denver recieving corps flourish is they work together. I think if even just DT was out of the picture the secondaries they face would be far more successfull against the other 3 since so much of the attention DT himself warrants would be spread to the other 3 and people wouldnt have a consensus that denver has three number 1 capable recievers. Just wait, Percy is going to do magical things not only for this offense as a whole but Tate Baldwin and even Kearse. Tate is going to do amazing things as a great #2 guy on the depth chart. If anyone has been impressed with Russ thus far, just wait... just wait. look at the difference in the 49ers with crabtree. what would young of been without rice, peyton without harrison, or without DT this year? We are going to see a whole different team, even the effect percy will have on marshawn. How good would the beast of been this year if he didnt face those 8 man boxs. Dangeruss will do amazing things, and will show the league what all us 12's know he is capable of.. and i believe he will even go beyond that and surprise all of us too. Cant wait for sunday and even the start of next season. The NFC is going to have a whole new beast come this next season. Great wr's make good qb's great, and great qb's phenomenonal.

 

[themunn]

Personally, I think that with Harvin and Rice fit, we would take it, but without them, Denver takes it.
Seattle's big problem is Zach Miller - not how bad he is, but rather, how important he is for blocking, because our line is still so inexperienced.

Rice also offers so much more than his stats belie, he can catch just about anything thrown near him, and to places where DBs simply can't reach. His stats were poor poor poor this season, and he did have 1 or 2 big drops that I can remember, but aside from the game at Carolina, his entire season falls into that window where Okung and Breno were out and Unger missed a few games, with Wilson completing few deep passes to anyone.

 

[KDshouldBeOurMJ]

Why the big cry over Denver's receiving corps?

I think admittedly that DThomas is legit. If you call Seattle's best and Denver's best out and compare I think it's fair to say DT > Tate

I don't honestly think that you can say pound for pound, skill for skill that Decker > Tate or Baldwin - in fact he might be somewhat equal or less than them. His big advantage is height and the type of routes he runs. I think it's very safe to say that Harvin is better than Decker, and in fact may be as impactful as DThomas.

Watch some Harvin highlights on youtube. Im sure you have like any 12, but maybe you should re-watch them. I think its safe to say that Harvin is more dynamic, game changing and impactful than DT. Ill put it this way. On the list of WRs with the most YAC in the last 3 seasons Harvin in 4th with 900-something. welker is first on that list with 1200-1300. Keep in mind that is with Harving missing pretty much the whole 2013-14 season. also keep in mind he missed some of the season before. That means he almost puts down double the YAC any other reciever does, and you add in the fact he was historically good in the return game and the leading KR guy in the 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons. Add that all up and remember Harvin was leading the MVP race in the previous season, he was looking like the favorite to win even over his teammate and eventual winner AP, and would of possibly won if not for his hip injury. I think its safe to say he is more dynamic and impactful than any other player in the NFL let alone DT. Not only because of his skill and speed but because of the fact when playing he is gamechanging not only in the offense as a wide out and a running back but also in special teams. Its too bad a guy of this talent cant stay healthy but thats what you get when you leave it all out on the field like he does, he has so much heart and effort that he is constantly putting his body is danger of being injured.
I think its safe to say that if this guy didnt miss a game in his career he would be regarded as megatron and AP are, the best hands down no debate. But then again if he didnt get injured the vikings would NEVER of given him up. Harvin in my eyes has more sheer physical talent than any other active nfl player. I dont see anyone else in the nfl with the ability to change directions at the speed he does...

 

[KDshouldBeOurMJ]

Personally, I think that with Harvin and Rice fit, we would take it, but without them, Denver takes it.
Seattle's big problem is Zach Miller - not how bad he is, but rather, how important he is for blocking, because our line is still so inexperienced.

Rice also offers so much more than his stats belie, he can catch just about anything thrown near him, and to places where DBs simply can't reach. His stats were poor poor poor this season, and he did have 1 or 2 big drops that I can remember, but aside from the game at Carolina, his entire season falls into that window where Okung and Breno were out and Unger missed a few games, with Wilson completing few deep passes to anyone.

To be brutally honest i think you are flat out wrong. We have yet to see how this offense flows with Harvin when teams cant bully russ and stack the box. Have some faith, rice wouldnt be the difference in this game because for us to win this game we have to establish the run and our defense has to make denver one-dimensional. take harvin out of the equation i think you are right about rice. We need a reciever respected like rice for denver not to be able to put 8 in the box and stop the run. well harvin does that. We win if we succeed in our gameplan, obviously. and with harvin's return i dont think rice helps us achieve that. The reason 12's have lost faith (idk if you have) in tate and baldwin is because we dont have a number 1 guy and teams can blitz russ which would force us to rely on deep balls, and we saw our offense slump because we werent getting those deep downfield passes, mainly because we were made one-dimensional because they stopped our running game with 8 in the box. Harvin is easily a top 5 reciever in this game, and he is as much as a gamechanger as megatron. add the talent he brings himself, what he opens up in the run game, the help he gives tate and baldwin since they dont have to stretch their roles to try to fill that #1 void, and the extra time he gives russ... i dont think we need rice. Think about this guys, remember the play last game all over SC and Total access where russell buys 9 seconds and throws the deep ball to baldwin where doug got behind the coverage? well picture percy running around, hes hard enough to cover for 3 seconds, 5 seconds, you give him 7? no chance, 9 seconds game over. Whole new ballgame with harvin, have faith in your hawks, last 5 meeting of #1Dvs#1O the D is 4/5
The #1 D is 12-3 in the superbowl.
I think with harvin we have a top 5 offense easy (we were #2 in points scored thru week11 without harvin). I think with the best defense since the likes of the 85 bears and the 2000 ravens with a top 5 offense IMO you couldnt have a better team to beat denver or any team for that matter.
Defense wins championships, and most of those defense that helped create that phrase didnt have an offense like this one. with percy we would of held that #2 spot in points scored through the last 6 games. not a doubt in my mind.
Heres to Keepin' tha Faith' 12's!