Rewatched the NFC Championship game

With a healthy Kam, Wagner and Maxwell, I don't see us losing to the Niners.

They couldn't run the ball on us at all except for Kap, and their running game is worse this year. Kap made a couple of crazy throws that worked, including the TD to Boldin that just eluded Earl. I just don't see him being so lucky this time.

Yeah, our O-line isn't doing great this year, but they were really rough last year too early in the game and they won't have Bowman, who killed us four 3.5 quarters.

I really think we win if we don't do anything really dumb.

I agree that San Fran won't score a lot of points with our defense on the surge.

The problem is that they won't need to. We're an offense with zero receiving weapons going up against the #1 DVOA pass defense (better than Arizona by a significant margin), in their house, while deploying a fourth-string center whose presence totally undermines the running game. I am honestly surprised by people saying we'll score 20 or more. I'd be happy if we broke 17.

It's a good thing our defense is finding itself again, because they've got their work cut out for them tomorrow. It'll come right down to the wire.

In the words of Spock...

To predict a game win tomorrow by anything more than 10pts when we lost so many games this year by a razor thin margin is not logical captain.

MontanaHawk05":1qpl18d7 said:

I agree that San Fran won't score a lot of points with our defense on the surge.

The problem is that they won't need to. We're an offense with zero receiving weapons going up against the #1 DVOA pass defense (better than Arizona by a significant margin), in their house, while deploying a fourth-string center whose presence totally undermines the running game. I am honestly surprised by people saying we'll score 20 or more. I'd be happy if we broke 17.

It's a good thing our defense is finding itself again, because they've got their work cut out for them tomorrow. It'll come right down to the wire.

Click to expand...

Seattle's rushing offense is BRUTALLY better than the 49ers, and the 49ers passing offense is only marginally better than Seattle's. The 49ers pass defense has a better DVOA than Seattle at the moment, but it isn't nearly the interval that the difference is rushing offense, or offense in general is.

Seattle ought to win by virtue of their significantly better running game, particularly given that the 49ers don't have a real home field advantage at Levi's Stadium.

Wags had a big impact in that last game as well. Saved a critical 3rd down stop on this one. They only got 3.

And Kam looks like he's healthy again as well, which with Wagner back makes the trunk of that defense strong again finally, albeit without Bane as the roots.



Check out the make up speed even after getting cut blocked.

vin's gifs wont load on my phone and it makes me want to ...cry.

5_Golden_Rings":3sgxxb50 said:

MontanaHawk05":3sgxxb50 said:

I agree that San Fran won't score a lot of points with our defense on the surge.

The problem is that they won't need to. We're an offense with zero receiving weapons going up against the #1 DVOA pass defense (better than Arizona by a significant margin), in their house, while deploying a fourth-string center whose presence totally undermines the running game. I am honestly surprised by people saying we'll score 20 or more. I'd be happy if we broke 17.

It's a good thing our defense is finding itself again, because they've got their work cut out for them tomorrow. It'll come right down to the wire.

Click to expand...

Seattle's rushing offense is BRUTALLY better than the 49ers, and the 49ers passing offense is only marginally better than Seattle's. The 49ers pass defense has a better DVOA than Seattle at the moment, but it isn't nearly the interval that the difference is rushing offense, or offense in general is.

Seattle ought to win by virtue of their significantly better running game, particularly given that the 49ers don't have a real home field advantage at Levi's Stadium.

Click to expand...

That's the balance. Yup, the Niners pass D is better than ours. Their pass offense is better than ours too, even if marginally. We run the ball much better than the Niners do.

The big difference is that the Niners run D is worse than both ours and AZ's. Now, they do have some players back, but J. Smith is probable with a back. That means he won't be 100%, and his 100% is slipping a little. Okung is playing at a really high level, so I'm not too worried about A. Smith unless he stunts inside and Carp/Bailey or Center #4 gets confused by it. Problem is, if Smith goes inside, it opens up the outside to Wilson's running.

I hope we see LJP at center tomorrow. I think we can run on the Niners. The other thing is that Baldwin always seems to play well against the Niners. The only WR that the Niners have that's playing really well is Boldin and Sherman has his number, while Maxwell does pretty well against Crabtree. Our D seems to have Kap's number. k

I see us winning, but in a squeaker.

I see us winning by 10 because the defense will get 2 turnovers. That and we have Jon Ryan and Stephen Hauschka, Field position baby!

I'm not seeing anybody remembering that our team has been constructed specifically to exploit the match ups presented by our division opponents. The Rams game being an anomaly, this means that Pete and John are good enough to take a look at our schedule and do what is necessary to cover non-division games with their remaining resources. It may very well be that in and amongst all that are going to be a few head-scratchingly strange personnel moves in the middle of the season.

The science of that explains why we just beat Arizona and will beat San Francisco tonight.

Believe in the science.

MontanaHawk05":m51nzpuo said:

I agree that San Fran won't score a lot of points with our defense on the surge.

The problem is that they won't need to. We're an offense with zero receiving weapons going up against the #1 DVOA pass defense (better than Arizona by a significant margin), in their house, while deploying a fourth-string center whose presence totally undermines the running game. I am honestly surprised by people saying we'll score 20 or more. I'd be happy if we broke 17.

It's a good thing our defense is finding itself again, because they've got their work cut out for them tomorrow. It'll come right down to the wire.

Click to expand...

Do we know for sure we're not gonna see LJP at Center?