3rd Down Conversion Rates

If you have been listening to the various Seahawks press conferences this week you probably heard Coach Carroll mention that they need to convert more 3rd downs. In Russell Wilson's press conference he echoed that. This reminded me of something I had been thinking about but first, let's look at what our conversion rates actually are. The first is an admittedly small sampling from this year but the other three are full year's rates.

Year Percent Rank
2016 31.03% 25th
2015 45.80% 3rd
2014 43.57% 8th
2013 37.07% 18th

Notice something peculiar? That's right, in our best year of the last three we were 18th and in our worst year we were 3rd. Does that surprise you? Well, it shouldn't because it brings up something that is critical to sustaining drives and something I have been pondering w/our current offense. If you run 1st and 2nd down or throw short bubble screens and depend on converting 3rd downs you will fail, period. You must incorporate enough 1st down plays on 1st and 2nd down to sustain drives and score.

I averaged the highest ranked 3rd down conversion rates for the last three years and the average highest rate is 48.01%. So, even if you are the best in the league you are only converting 48% of your first downs on 3rd down. The reason we were converting less 3rd downs in 2013 is because we were converting more 1st downs on 1st and 2nd down and/or more explosive plays. The problem this year is we aren't converting at a decent rate on any down. I am not saying that we don't try to do that now, but we are obviously not very good at it, and we have become worse at it for three consecutive years.

You could say that we scored more pts in 2015 and that accounted for that but we scored almost identical pts in '13 with 26.4 and 26.1 pts respectively. Stats don't tell the whole story but often they can aid in discovering patterns.

I am sure there is more than one way to interpret these stats so feel free to add yours.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/t ... ersion-pct

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team ... /year/2013

There's not really a material difference in our 1st and 2nd down conversion rate between 2013 and 2015

In 2013 we ran 204 third down plays and last year 213. We also averaged 20.9 first downs per game last year (334 in total, of which 99 came on third down and 235 on first or second down) compared to 19.2 (307 in total, of which 76 came on third down and 231 on first or second) in 2013. We did run 62 extra plays, which came with 27 extra first downs in total, which means that we averaged a first down every 3.1 plays last year compared to

I'd also say that despite the poorer start last year, we were a better offense - finishing 4th in total yards and scoring compared to 18th in yards and 8th in scoring in 2013.

So by what metric were we better - aside from winning the superbowl, of course.

themunn":13csyazc said:

There's not really a material difference in our 1st and 2nd down conversion rate between 2013 and 2015

In 2013 we ran 204 third down plays and last year 213. We also averaged 20.9 first downs per game last year (334 in total, of which 99 came on third down and 235 on first or second down) compared to 19.2 (307 in total, of which 76 came on third down and 231 on first or second) in 2013. We did run 62 extra plays, which came with 27 extra first downs in total, which means that we averaged a first down every 3.1 plays last year compared to

I'd also say that despite the poorer start last year, we were a better offense - finishing 4th in total yards and scoring compared to 18th in yards and 8th in scoring in 2013.

So by what metric were we better - aside from winning the superbowl, of course.

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We were significantly better in many areas in '13 including winning significantly more games 13 to 10 and achieving HFA, which probably did as much to get us in the SB as anything. However, I thought that the point of the post was clear i.e. we didn't have to depend as much on 3rd down conversions to sustain drives and score points. I don't think anyone would argue that we were as good in '15 as we were in '13.

I appreciate you adding your own stats, but if you don't provide a link I don't have any way of knowing how valid they are.

Edit: I went back and looked at my links and see that you used my links for your stats. You are correct on the yardage but yardage stats are insignificant when they don't result in pts, both Tampa Bay and New Orleans had almost identical yardage and they didn't do anything. For instance, if you get 1st downs from your own 20 to their 40 you pad your 1st down stats but it doesn't mean anything because you didn't sustain a drive that ended up scoring pts. Then, there is the addl factor of skewed stats by games that had high differential like Minnesota w/o their starters on defense and a week 17 lopsided victory that didn't mean anything.

(I should have stuck to my original premise because when you get into the yearly stats there are so many variables, both qualitative and quantitative, that it gets really convoluted)

The PPG is the significant stat and they are almost identical in '15 and '13. As I said, the salient point is that we were more dependant on 3rd down conversions in '14 and '15. I don't know exactly how significant that is except that we became less and less successful the more dependant we became on 3rd down conversions.

We move the chains more on any down once Russ becomes a threat as a runner again and we stop with the false start and holding penalties that sabotage drives.

I get it. I just don't put that much stock in two weeks of statistics projecting over the course of the season.

Looking at 2015 for example. After two games, our 3rd down conversion rate was only 35% and that was with more 3rd downs in the 0-3 yard range. It's just two games in a sixteen game season so I tend to rely more on what I see from a play by play basis than what the stats are telling me.

As I mentioned in another thread, most of this has to do with really terrible rushing on 1st and 2nd down (and penalties). Alex Collins two carries against the Rams is a perfect example. We started the drive well but as soon as Michael went out for a breather, we ran the ball twice and killed the drive with bad down & distance that could only be a pass against a physical defensive front.

In order for this offense to work right now, we have to avoid the penalties and get to 3rd and manageable. Whether that be better run blocking or more passes on 2nd down, we have to find ways to stay on schedule.

You're simply not going to have a 45% 3rd down conversion rate with your average 3rd down distance being greater than 7 yards.

This is a great thread and topic with some very interesting numbers. I enjoyed reading it and will stay tuned for further insight.

Thanks for the thread Dog, Munn, Sioux and Laloosh. It's nice reading a thread that is subject based and not just hyperbole and strawman.

Laloosh":1p7ehzw4 said:

I get it. I just don't put that much stock in two weeks of statistics projecting over the course of the season.

Looking at 2015 for example. After two games, our 3rd down conversion rate was only 35% and that was with more 3rd downs in the 0-3 yard range. It's just two games in a sixteen game season so I tend to rely more on what I see from a play by play basis than what the stats are telling me.

As I mentioned in another thread, most of this has to do with really terrible rushing on 1st and 2nd down (and penalties). Alex Collins two carries against the Rams is a perfect example. We started the drive well but as soon as Michael went out for a breather, we ran the ball twice and killed the drive with bad down & distance that could only be a pass against a physical defensive front.

In order for this offense to work right now, we have to avoid the penalties and get to 3rd and manageable. Whether that be better run blocking or more passes on 2nd down, we have to find ways to stay on schedule.

You're simply not going to have a 45% 3rd down conversion rate with your average 3rd down distance being greater than 7 yards.

Click to expand...

I get what you are saying here, and I agree, stats are only going to tell you part of the story but what I was hoping is that they could uncover a trend. Two games are too small a sampling unless it follows an established pattern. I am not a good enough statistician, nor will I devote that much energy, to establish a statistical significance; but hopefully I can derive something from this w/o having to try and figure out my old stat's class formulas.

This is borne out of an observation that we are depending on converting 3rd downs too much. You mention that you want to be in a more favorable 3rd down situation but we know from the table I supplied a couple of weeks ago that even very short yardage 3rd downs only convert at 70%-80%. I agree that we want to be in a more favorable 3rd down situation but that won't always happen and even the best 3rd down converting teams only average 48% percent conversion.

My position is that if you want to be successful, sustain drives, and score pts you have to quit dinking around and take some shots that result in 1st downs on 1st and 2nd down plays. I think the stats demonstrate that we were doing that more in '13.

My hope is that we will start to see more of that against the niners.