FO only sees ~16 1st round prospects

ivotuk · Apr 23, 2020

Listening to Rob Staton interview Tony Pauline, Pete and JS only see about 16 - 17 First round players in this draft.

Then starting in the 2nd half of the 1st round, and going through the 2nd half of the 3rd round, there's not much difference.

So I see them trading back at least twice, taking whatever is offered in order to get extra picks, and loading up on 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th round picks.

Like in previous years, they won't get Jimmy Johnson Chart Value out of their trade backs, but for this draft, is quantity over quality. Because in reality, there are going to be a ton of high value picks between picks 33 and 80.

I'd much rather give up pick 27, if it's going to net me a Denzel Mims and DaVon Hamilton.

ivotuk · Apr 23, 2020

I downloaded the Podcast. About 3:30 Tony Pauline talks about the Seahawks and how they value the players in the first couple of rounds.

An interview with draft insider Tony Pauline

Rob Staton 401 subscribers

Tony Pauline, the #1 draft insider, speaks to seahawksdraftblog.com about the upcoming 2020 NFL Draft.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBqMbrP3J9k&t=232s

Lords of Scythia · Apr 23, 2020

Who cares about first-round prospects. How many 3rd-round prospects we got, baby? That's what really matters.

GO HAWKS!!!!!!!!!!!!

ivotuk · Apr 23, 2020

More Tony Pauline!

JOHN CLAYTON -- Hour 2 - Draft expert Tony Pauline joins John Clayton

What should the Seahawks do at pick #27?

What's the latest on Jadeveon Clowney's prolonged free agency?

John Clayton is joined by Tony Pauline of Pro Football Network who shares what he's hearing.

On the Report Card, the Griffin Twins get a cool honor from their alma mater. The Professor gives it a grade.

Your text questions and The Groz finish off the week.

https://sports.mynorthwest.com/category ... hn+Clayton

Sgt. Largent · Apr 23, 2020

Lords of Scythia":2wlmflub said:
Who cares about first-round prospects. How many 3rd-round prospects we got, baby? That's what really matters.

GO HAWKS!!!!!!!!!!!!

Not sure if you're joking or not, but really it's true.

Once you get out of the top 15 or so, there isn't a whole lot of difference between talent of pick 20 and pick 50. It's literally the reason we drop down so often at the bottom of the first round. Also cap wise it makes sense, why pay higher first round guaranteed slotted money for a player that's no better then top or middle of the 2nd round talent.

Look at the stats, hitting on a late first rounder and 2nd and 3rd rounder is marginal at best. But the cap hit isn't marginal, it's significant.

Ozzy · Apr 23, 2020

I've always wondered why they don't value that extra year on the rookie contract but value trumps that year apparently. I'm just selfish and want something to he excited about on day 1

HawkGA · Apr 23, 2020

It seems like a handful of the last several years the Seahawks haven't been able to find enough trading partners to actually get out of the first round. They can trade down a bit further in the 1st round, but not out of it. Of course, this is going completely off of memory so maybe they've gotten out of the first round more than I realize, but definitely feels like a 2 out of the last 3 years they haven't been able too. I guess I could look it up, but that feels like a lot of work.

Sgt. Largent · Apr 23, 2020

HawkGA":2eytpxjf said:
It seems like a hadful of the last several years the Seahawks haven't been able to find enough trading partners to actually get out of the first round. They can trade down a bit further in the 1st round, but not out of it..

That's because most of the other teams have gotten smart and started to adopt the same draft principles as all the perennially successful teams that routinely have been picking at the bottom of the 1st round and trading out of it.

Hawks, Green Bay, Patriots, Ravens, Steelers, etc.

Why are all these teams perennially good? It's obviously coaching, but it's also how they scout and evaluate talent. Why are the bad teams always drafting high and never getting better? Because they keep drafting 2nd round talent in the middle to bottom of the first round and not only paying more cap, but not accumulating those extra picks to have a higher hit rate.

Chapow · Apr 23, 2020

They're probably right.

I'd highly recommend giving this article a read. Especially today, on draft day.

https://theriotreport.com/scout-camp-20 ... -author/1/

Some things become very clear from this chart: the 2013 draft was terrible and; that there simply aren’t as many good prospects as most people think. While there might be slightly more than this suggests due to either games missed due to injury or those who take a year or two to develop before contributing, from a pure value standpoint there are not 15 great players in most drafts and certainly not 32.

I think a lot of fans could use a bit of a reality check. The success rate (which, as defined in this article, is a pretty low bar) for players picked in the 21-32 range is under 50%. The overall success rate for players picked anywhere in the 1st round is only 53%. There simply are not as many great players in any given draft as most people think. No where near. Any team is fortunate to get simply a "good" player after the first 5 picks. Getting a great player after the first 5 picks is exceptionally fortunate. People that think getting anything but a great player very late in the 1st round is a failure just have unreasonable, and unrealistic expectations.

Sgt. Largent · Apr 23, 2020

Chapow":21hhuusz said:
They're probably right.

I'd highly recommend giving this article a read. Especially today, on draft day.

https://theriotreport.com/scout-camp-20 ... -author/1/

Some things become very clear from this chart: the 2013 draft was terrible and; that there simply aren’t as many good prospects as most people think. While there might be slightly more than this suggests due to either games missed due to injury or those who take a year or two to develop before contributing, from a pure value standpoint there are not 15 great players in most drafts and certainly not 32.

Click to expand...

I think a lot of fans could use a bit of a reality check. The success rate (which, as defined in this article, is a pretty low bar) for players picked in the 21-32 range is under 50%. The overall success rate for players picked anywhere in the 1st round is only 53%. There simply are not as many great players in any given draft as most people think. No where near. Any team is fortunate to get simply a "good" player after the first 5 picks. Getting a great player after the first 5 picks is exceptionally fortunate. People that think getting anything but a great player very late in the 1st round is a failure just have unreasonable, and unrealistic expectations.

Pretty much what I was saying above, but thanks for backing it up with the stats.

I know we all get frustrated every year when we drop down, but it's sound draft strategy, backed up by stats...........and for those of us that hate us dropping out of the first round, it's not like we have a long successful draft history of finding amazing talent at the bottom of the 1st round. In fact, it's been downright mediocre to terrible.

SoulfishHawk · Apr 23, 2020

Not sure about everyone else, but I flat out WANT them to trade down in the 1st.

KinesProf · Apr 23, 2020

Lords of Scythia":3dxv5z3k said:
Who cares about first-round prospects. How many 3rd-round prospects we got, baby? That's what really matters.

GO HAWKS!!!!!!!!!!!!

I don't necessarily disagree actually. That mid-2 to mid-3 is a wonderful sweet spot for this team. Golden, Russ, Bobby, Jarran, Frank, Lockett, Shaquill, DK

sutz · Apr 23, 2020

Sgt. Largent":2isse1om said:
Chapow":2isse1om said:

They're probably right.

I'd highly recommend giving this article a read. Especially today, on draft day.

https://theriotreport.com/scout-camp-20 ... -author/1/

Some things become very clear from this chart: the 2013 draft was terrible and; that there simply aren’t as many good prospects as most people think. While there might be slightly more than this suggests due to either games missed due to injury or those who take a year or two to develop before contributing, from a pure value standpoint there are not 15 great players in most drafts and certainly not 32.

Click to expand...

I think a lot of fans could use a bit of a reality check. The success rate (which, as defined in this article, is a pretty low bar) for players picked in the 21-32 range is under 50%. The overall success rate for players picked anywhere in the 1st round is only 53%. There simply are not as many great players in any given draft as most people think. No where near. Any team is fortunate to get simply a "good" player after the first 5 picks. Getting a great player after the first 5 picks is exceptionally fortunate. People that think getting anything but a great player very late in the 1st round is a failure just have unreasonable, and unrealistic expectations.

Click to expand...

Pretty much what I was saying above, but thanks for backing it up with the stats.

I know we all get frustrated every year when we drop down, but it's sound draft strategy, backed up by stats...........and for those of us that hate us dropping out of the first round, it's not like we have a long successful draft history of finding amazing talent at the bottom of the 1st round. In fact, it's been downright mediocre to terrible.

Hell, even when we trade our 1st away for a FA, it seems we've missed more often than we hit. Again, I blame fantasy football. In FF, the first pick in the draft can make or break your season, no matter where you pick. IRL, once you get out of the "elite" picks in the top half of round 1 (IF there are that many in a given year) you're basically making 2d round picks anyway. Why not try to get two 2's or additional 3's through 5?

And that extra contract year option? How often is that a thing? Probably not as often as some fans think.

Bobblehead · Apr 23, 2020

I think the Hawks FO only see's 16-17 1st rd prospects every year...we're trading down.

Seahawkfan80 · Apr 23, 2020

SoulfishHawk":2uvi58o1 said:
Not sure about everyone else, but I flat out WANT them to trade down in the 1st.

I have oars in this boat. :2thumbs:

xray · Apr 23, 2020

I wish they would of noticed that Penny wasn't a 1st pick in 2018 . :stirthepot:

Chapow · Apr 23, 2020

xray":bz9th6zv said:
I wish they would of noticed that Penny wasn't a 1st pick in 2018 . :stirthepot:

It's would have or would've, not would of.

You're welcome.

Largent80 · Apr 23, 2020

Might as well tune in Friday, because first of all you will wait forever, only to see them trade out.

JayhawkMike · Apr 23, 2020

xray":2hjxx8ki said:
I wish they would of noticed that Penny wasn't a 1st pick in 2018 . :stirthepot:

Nobody thought Penny was a first rounder. Some of us thought Chubb was. All of the draft “experts” thought the same. We were all correct. Pete and JS blew it. Penny will never amount to anything as a Seahawk. He’ll come back tentative and out of shape mid season and not contribute because of both injury and being drafted over today or tomorrow. Such a waste.

KinesProf · Apr 23, 2020

Penny has been pretty awesome and explosive on a per touch basis. He's averaging 5.3 ypcarry and 9.3 ypcatch , which are really good numbers.

The volume certainly isn't there, and he is behind a really good player. I don't think they mis-evaluated the talent at all, Penny is really good. They definitely mis-evaluated positional value and what happens if you already have a good running back.

FO only sees ~16 1st round prospects

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