per DVOA, Denver is 1st in passing offense. NO was 3rd, SF 4th, but it didn't do them any good vs the LOB, which was 1st in passing defense. Denver is 21st in passing defense. Seattle is 8th in passing offense. So we should be able to pass better than they will.
In the rushing game, however, Seattle is 7th in rushing offense and Denver is 10th. So both teams can run the ball. On defense, Seattle is 8th in stopping the run and Denver is 9th. So both have good run stopping defenses. Yet, again, Seattle has the advantage, albeit only a slight one.
Seattle ranks 3rd in special teams where Denver ranks 13th, but weighted DVOA ranks Denver 28th. Either way, again advantage Seattle.
DYAR is commonly used to measure how good the WR corps is, however, it is slanted towards gross yardage, etc. So a team that passes a lot racks up a higher DYAR for its receivers. DVOA measures how well the receiver does per play. If both receivers were in identical offenses, the higher DVOA receiver would have higher DYAR. Seattle doesn't pass as much as Denver does so all Denvers receivers have higher DYAR. But Baldwin has a higher DVOA than Thomas, Kearse higher than Decker and Tate higher than Welker. Meaning we have the actual better receivers, we just don't use them as much.
Given that our greatest advantage is our 8th ranked passing offense vs their 21st ranked pass defense, I think our WR's should have a much better day than theirs will. Unlike the SF game, where whoever won the rushing game would most likely win the game, I think Wilson will have a much better day than Lynch and our passing game will beat Denver's.
What could derail us? The usual suspects. Our pass protection ranked dead last in DVOA. Denvers pass pro ranked 1st. Our pass rush ranked 7th, Denvers ranked 21st. This is surprising considering Seattle had 44 sacks and Denver 41, but it measures hits, etc. However, teams like Houston and SF had bad pass rushes per DVOA and we all saw what kind of pressure they brought on our 32nd ranked pass protection. Bringing pressure on Manning will be much harder than bringing pressure on Wilson. Definite advantage to Denver. That may well offset our passing advantage.
If I were Denver, I'd be stacking the box to fill all the gaps to stop Lynch while allowing the front 7 to put relentless pressure on Wilson. The only way for us to win that battle is for our WR's to get open quickly. Against their crappy secondary, we can do that, but only if Wilson steps up in the pocket and doesn't scramble as much as he's used to doing.
