Football Outsiders week 7 stats

Erebus · Oct 21, 2014

I was a little hesitant to post this, because there's been some hatred spewed towards posters trying to maintain a positive outlook after Sunday's loss. But we're still #4 in DVOA, which as some of you know is a fairly good indicator of future performance. We've had the toughest schedule in the NFL so far this year.

According to their Playoff Odds Report, we still have a 60% chance of making the playoffs, compared to SF's 28% chance. Unfortunately, we obviously have almost no chance at the #1 seed.

Polaris · Oct 21, 2014

I agree. Here are two more valuable takeaways from football outsider's analysis (which I have found to be very good):

1. If you compare our new DVOA to our last, while the St Louis game did hurt us, it didn't hurt as that bad. Basically that means we played a LOT better than some would have you believe.

2. If you look at the teams we've played, Seattle to date has played far and away the hardest schedule in terms of opponent DVOA in the league. The rest of the schedule is #23. Expect a rebound.

Pandion Haliaetus · Oct 21, 2014

The way I see it: Seahawks have been a great team this year but Lady Luck (Injuries, Turnovers, SOS), NFL Parity (Scheduling, Rule Emphasis, Shady Officiating) and the Curse of Percy Harvin all have been a Bermuda Triangle of cold hearted bitches this year.

Seahawkfan80 · Oct 21, 2014

Pandion Haliaetus":vdfaqtvo said:
The way I see it: Seahawks have been a great team this year but Lady Luck (Injuries, Turnovers, SOS), NFL Parity (Scheduling, Rule Emphasis, Shady Officiating) and the Curse of Percy Harvin all have been a Bemuda Triangle of cold hearted bitches this year.

Is the "Curse of Percy Harvin" gonna be made into a movie??? Like The hobbit...curse of smaug??? LOL

I am not too damaged by our play against the Rams. They are a tuff team and were a hard team last year on the first of 2. In the game around Xmas, they were not as hard but were very chippy. We will grow from this loss and thru the ashes will be a sword Anduril...Flame of the WEST ...oops wrong movie....Have fun folks.

AgentDib · Oct 21, 2014

The only problem with any of MC based playoff projections at this early point in the season is that they don't build any sort of random walk into it. Football outcomes are not independent events and this method severely understates the potential for big swings the more games there are remaining to be played.

For example, they give Dallas a crazy high chance at the #1 seed (37.7%) because they have played really well to this point. They've also stayed really healthy and are a team that would be hurt significantly by key injuries. For example, if Romo were to get hurt again next week then the odds for their remaining nine games would all drop together by a significant margin. We can generalize that to see that the outcome this week will affect the likelihood of all future outcomes.

Jville · Oct 21, 2014

Lets see .....

Offense efficiency improved from #9 ranking to 6th.

Defense efficiency declined from # 5 ranking to 7th.

Special teams collapsed from #4 ranking to 21st.

pehawk · Oct 21, 2014

AgentDib":3ki1i9yr said:
The only problem with any of MC based playoff projections at this early point in the season is that they don't build any sort of random walk into it. Football outcomes are not independent events and this method severely understates the potential for big swings the more games there are remaining to be played.

For example, they give Dallas a crazy high chance at the #1 seed (37.7%) because they have played really well to this point. They've also stayed really healthy and are a team that would be hurt significantly by key injuries. For example, if Romo were to get hurt again next week then the odds for their remaining nine games would all drop together by a significant margin. We can generalize that to see that the outcome this week will affect the likelihood of all future outcomes.

Good point on Dallas. I'd also add there schedule gets alot harder.

Ozzy · Oct 21, 2014

I love DVOA as it seems to be the best indicator of all the advanced stats of measuring how good a team actually is. If we are 4th with all of our injuries while playing the hardest schedule I feel good about our chances. I still like our chances to win the West. Is there a team in the NFC that honestly scares you a ton? I fell like if Seattle plays their game they beat anyone in the NFC. Time will tell.

hoxrox · Oct 22, 2014

I'm surprised we're still 3rd in toxic differential with our lack of turnovers.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats ... tial/2014/

Hasselbeck · Oct 22, 2014

Call me crazy but I think we can still win this division and get a bye. HFA is probably off the table, but considering the Eagles/Cowboys will likely get the 1 seed unless their season comes completely unglued.. I wouldn't fear either of those teams for a NFCCG.

The goal obviously remains winning the NFC West.. which is still a very realistic option...

Of course.. they also have to win Sunday.. or then you're really putting yourself behind the 8-ball

Hasselbeck · Oct 22, 2014

AgentDib":2yrgiids said:
For example, they give Dallas a crazy high chance at the #1 seed (37.7%) because they have played really well to this point. They've also stayed really healthy and are a team that would be hurt significantly by key injuries. For example, if Romo were to get hurt again next week then the odds for their remaining nine games would all drop together by a significant margin. We can generalize that to see that the outcome this week will affect the likelihood of all future outcomes.

Forget Romo.. if DeMarco Murray breaks down, that whole team goes down with him.

I get why they're doing what they're doing, but the workload Murray has had thus far and his past history with injuries tells me that's a very dangerous proposition for the Cowboys.

Hasselbeck · Oct 22, 2014

Pandion Haliaetus":plz9abct said:
The way I see it: Seahawks have been a great team this year but Lady Luck (Injuries, Turnovers, SOS), NFL Parity (Scheduling, Rule Emphasis, Shady Officiating) and the Curse of Percy Harvin all have been a Bermuda Triangle of cold hearted bitches this year.

Wrong curse my friend

(In before Roland loses his mind)

SalishHawkFan · Oct 22, 2014

hoxrox":r0eu6ov4 said:
I'm surprised we're still 3rd in toxic differential with our lack of turnovers.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats ... tial/2014/

We keep coming up with the big plays and not allowing as many big plays as it feels like we do.

Erebus · Oct 22, 2014

I thought we weren't allowed to have big plays.

Football Outsiders week 7 stats

Erebus

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