Let Jonny Manzeil get all the hype, i'll take Marcus Mariota thank you.

Both on the road:

681 passing yards.
10 incompletions.
10 passing TDs.
0 interceptions.
151 rushing yards.

Future #1 overall pick in the NFL draft in my opinion.

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You have got to be kidding, right? #1 overall? He's a product of a GREAT system that Chip Kelly runs. His throwing mechanics are terrible. Put him in a "pro style" offense (as in, the NFL) & he's not going to be successful. With that being said, the kid fits Chip's offense PERFECT & is having a fantastic season. I'm not taking anything away from the season he's having, especially for a freshman-it's unreal for him to produce at the level he is for a RS frosh. But he is not a pro QB.

I"m not trying to be rude, I just completely disagree-you are a DUCK homer, right?

His mechanics are horrible? Care to explain? Where are his fundamental breakdowns? I'm guessing you said all those same things about Cam Newton, who was indeed the #1 overall pick. No offense, but you sound like somebody who listens to stereotypes and doesnt watch teh games. The one thing i could probably nit pick is that his release point is not always perfect.

From people who know a lot more about football then I do his mechanics are most often compared to Andrew Luck. This was from recruiting type folks before he ever played a down at Oregon.

He goes thru his read progression as well as any quarterback i've seen in college football this year including Barkley. He's unbelievably accurate. He's a master at looking off safety's. He can easily make any throw on the route tree.

And hell yes i'm a Ducks homer. But i'm also somebody who watches a lot of football and knows good QB play when I see it. I knew Russell Wilson was going to be our best QB the second we drafted him. I knew Darron Thomas had absolutely no shot at an NFL career, but Mariota is light years ahead of him already after just 10 games.

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Yeah, J beat me to it, but Mariota's throwing mechanics are great - I don't know what JimmeeJack is watching - Darron Thomas had some mechanic issues certainly - perhaps you are remembering that.

Actually, I've seen all of the Ducks games except tonight's. Who has compared him and his "mechanics" to Andrew Luck? Do you honestly think his "mechanics" or "reads" are that of a pro QB-because if you're thinking he's going #1 in the draft, than you're saying he's going to be an above average NFL QB, right? Luck's arm is head & shoulders above Marcus. Let's be honest, his WR's are open because defense's HAVE to gamble & stack the box to attempt to stop Oregon's run game. You don't slow down their run game, you don't have a chance at beating them. Do you really think an NFL team is going to draft a guy #1 overall, into a "pro-style" offense, when that guy has run the offense that Chip Kelly runs? His offense is not run in the NFL. Luck ran a pro style offense, from a HC who than went to the pro's & proved that style of play works, in his FIRST year. His "reads" aren't difficult one's to make-you've watched Oregon's games. There are open WR's ALL over the field because teams sell out to stop their run. And I give him credit, he hits them. But its not as if he's making "difficult" reads like some of the good one's in the pro's make.

Look, I'm not trying to sell the kid short-I'm disputing that he's a "#1 overall draft pick"-in fact, I love the way the kid plays the game & he's a perfect fit for that style of play. I give Chip Kelly TONS of credit, & that is coming from a DAWG fan. He has found a niche in college football that nobody can compete with. And ya' know what, it's gonna get him a "natty" (as you Duck fans call it) this year-ND, KSU aren't going to beat them. But come on, you're being a little bit of a homer here.

Cam Newton, Sam Bradford and Robert Griffin 3 didnt run pro style offenses either. But NFL teams didnt shy away from them.

And for the record, i dont think he's going to be an above average NFL qb. I think he's going to be a GREAT NFL qb.

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Chrome Seahawk-Darron Thomas definitely had some "mechanic issues"-I'll give you that....but no, I'm not remembering that......

Somebody on this site was stating that Darron Thomas was shooting up the draft boards last year-don't know if it was JSeahawks, but it was quite amusing. No way anybody was going to touch that guy on the first day of the draft; however, he was a great QB for Chip's system.

That was Kearly.

I was arguiing against him taht Darron Thomas has absolutely no future in pro football. The Oregon offense is light years ahead of last years oregon offense even though we lost LaMichael James. Because of Mariota.

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Btw.. one last thing on this before I go to bed... I dont think there's any such thing as "pro style" anymore.

I would bet that Tom Brady's reads in that New England spread passing attack are closer to the type of reads that Mariota makes in the Ducks offense, then they are to the type of reads that Joe Montana had to make in teh classic old pro style sets they used.

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None of those guys ran an offense that is like Oregon's-that's my point-nobody does. And an NFL GM isn't going to risk their job on making that pick. Oregon plays SO fast that D's can't keep up. Yes, those guys played in "spread" offense's, but they weren't on the same page as Oregon-Oregon is efficient because of the speed & tempo that they play at. Newton has been a bust up to this point (mostly because he is a head case), Bradford has been a bust for a #1 overall pick (Oklahoma's offense was NOTHING like Oregon's) & RG3 is in his first year-RG3 is the closest thing to someone running an offense similar to Oregon's, but you can't compare Baylor's offense to Oregon's because they don't run the no huddle anywhere near what the Quacks do.

And for the record, I'm not sold on Barkley-I think he's surrounded by FANTASTIC WR's & talent on offense. I think he's another Sanchez, maybe a Palmer-but not somebody I'd build my franchise around. I just don't like his body language. He seems like a whiner, & to me, at QB, that's not what I want. And I'll give your Ducks QB that-he is a very poised young man & handles himself quite well.

Agree with you there. I think he's much more likely to be Sanchez then Palmer. If I were an NFL GM i would not touch him in the first round. I was just using him as an example because he's a guy who's thought of by "experts" as NFL ready.

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What if Chip Kelly is the coach?

Cuz i'm 100% certain that if Oregon wins it all this year he's in the NFL next year.

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Obviously Brady's reads arent' anything like Montana's days-the game has changed. However, Brady also doesn't have the running threats that Oregon has either. Nor is Brady a threat to run, as is Marcus. And that style hasn't proven to work in the NFL. Maybe Chip goes to the league & proves it wrong, but to this point teams don't run it for a reason-because its considered a lost cause in the NFL & you'll get your QB killed.

You're right, it was Kearly-I guess we agree on something-I thought that was ludicrous to think Thomas would be an NFL QB. And you're right, Marcus is the reason the Ducks O has gone to the next level. He offers the threat to run, where Thomas didn't. And he is a better passer than Thomas, though that isn't saying much as Thomas was not very good throwing the ball. I hate the Ducks, but I actually respect what Chip is doing. He found a way to change the college game, & this year, will get rewarded with a "natty" before probation hits haha....

I'm going to bed too, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Chip in the league next year-and ya' know what, he'll run "parts" of Oregon's offense, but I think he's smart enough to not run it all the time-and ya' know what, he'll probably be successful. He's a genius when it comes to football-probably one of the greatest offensive minds to come along in college football history. They have changed, not only the game, but the way other teams play, recruit & coach.


BTW, I hate the DUCKS-did I mention that already? Have a good night, hopefully you take all of this as a couple of dudes talkin' sports. It's nothing personal & I respect your opinions as I have been a long time reader of this site. You're a knowledgeable fan & I give you props for that.

No sweat man, i dont take anything said on this site personally. In the end its all just opinions that dont mean a damn thing.

It makes me feel better knowing i'm right though haha.

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I'd be surprised if either Mariota or Manziel were #1 overall picks, for different reasons. That's not a knock on either one, I just don't think the NFL evaluation process will rate them THAT highly. That process didn't think much of Russell Wilson or Tom Brady either. Manziel in particular strikes me as a potential draft steal if he indeed slides due to stature.

I'm drawn to under-rated players. I really liked and still do like Darron Thomas. It made me sad that he hasn't received a real shot in the NFL. He had flaws but also some natural QB talent and has a lot in common with Keith Price. Sometimes good QBs get snubbed by the NFL process and still end up getting a 2nd chance later. It's really rare for that to happen unfortunately.

I like Mariota. He's extremely similar to Colin Kaepernick. Very good arm, very mobile, fast but ugly footwork, (barely) flawed throwing mechanics but the ball comes out quick enough to make that a petty complaint. And like Kaepernick, he has great zip on the ball but trusts his arm a little too much for my personal liking. He throws a lot of dangerous passes and strikes me as a high INT QB in the NFL. He's obviously a future NFL draft pick, but my 6th sense tells me that he'll probably end up like Kaepernick and Tuiasosopo (both 2nd round picks). He needs to add some bulk too.

The good news is that Mariota still has a lot of time to improve himself. If he can build up to 225 pounds and polish his footwork, I see no reason why he couldn't work himself into a future 1st round conversation. That is of course assuming that the whole Chip Kelly system QB label doesn't rear it's ugly head like it did for Thomas. No disrespect to Thomas or Mariota, but there probably isn't an easier system in college football than what Oregon has. Both in terms of being simplified and having a strong supporting cast. That's a big knock on any Oregon QB come draft day, and a big reason why it's hard to see anything short of the next Andrew Luck mega specimen getting #1 overall consideration out of Oregon.

Then again, Alex Smith was a decently similar college QB and he went #1 in 2005. I guess if there is a perfect storm, Mariota could be a top pick. Anything is possible.

I may be looking thru green and yellow glasses but i dont think i'm too far off on my prediction. Really, I think the only common denominator between Mariota and Thomas is that they both play for Oregon. Other then that, they're extremely different football players.

After tonight Mariota is leading the nation in passer efficiency rating, at 177.0. With 71% completion percentage and a 28/5 TD to Int ratio. Not bad for a freshman!

Some of last years ratings, just to put it into perspective:

Wilson: 191.8 (I believe that was an NCAA record)
Griffin 3: 189.5
Kellen MOore: 175.2
Andrew Luck: 169.7
Keith Price: 161.9
Darron Thomas: 158.7
Ryan Tannehill: 133.2

Jonny Manziel is currently at 151.2 (27th in the nation).
Keith Price is at 117.2 (101st in the nation... ouch. I like Price though and hope he has a bounce back year next year accept when he plays Oregon).

http://espn.go.com/college-football/sta ... backRating

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Price was terrible for most of this season. He's coming back finally but even with a strong finish his final numbers will be Jake Locker territory at best.

Mariota screams "college QB" every time I watch him. Extremely similar to Kaepernick and Tui. The good news for Oregon was that both those QBs were winners, and neither one had an easier path to a championship. I'm not saying he can't be a good NFL QB, but #1 overall strikes me as very unlikely unless there is a tectonic shift in the NFL Draft evaluation process over the next 3 years.

Mariota has the poise of a NFL QB. He has all the tools you want to see in a NFL prospect also.

He's easily the best QB has had since Dennis Dixon, and he's probably better than Dixon as well, and that's comparing a 1st year starter in Mariota to a Dixon in his senior year. Forget about comparing him to Darron Thomas. He blows Thomas out of the water. Thomas could be wildly inaccurate at times and never looked like a legitimate NFL prospect, and many Oregon fans will tell you that. Darron Thomas is the one that was a college QB.

Mariota is the one that has great accuracy, good arm strength, great poise and intelligence.

He's the real deal.

And Dixon was a 5th round pick who has played in a grand total of 3 NFL games. Oregon's system is great for the college game, but who was the last Oregon QB to have NFL success? Joey Harrington (using a very loose definition of the word 'success')?

Mariota as a freshman with 4 games left in his season already has 8 more td's then Dixon had in his best season. In the passing game the two are not comparable, Mariota is a better QB right now then Dixon is after 5 years in the NFL. He's also faster then Dixon, although Dixon may have been more elusive.

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All I'm going to say is KP last year vs KP this year. I'd let Mariota play another year before crowning his ass.

Joey was a victim of Owner / GM / Coaches all being on different pages and basically pissing on each other and not even calling it rain ...

As far as other Duck QB's who have gone pro and had 'success' ...

Bob Berry
Chris Miller
Kellen Clemens
A.J. Feeley
Dan Fouts
Akili Smith
Norm Van Brocklin

Varying degrees of 'success' with each of the above alumni ...

Mariota is 'The Truth' and any of you guys who dispute that are simply in denial, IMO. He has shown a tremendous level of poise for a Freshman ...

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I reject your reality and substitute my own

not saying you're wrong... Just saying that a single incredible season doesn't always carry over. I didn't see any reason to doubt Keith either yet here we are.

Let's look at Mariota as a prospect. I've seen most of his games, but I haven't scouted him.

Pros:

Plus arm strength, can throw the ball to all areas of field without trouble. Ball arrives with zip.
Known as a cool customer in the pocket.
Makes multiple reads. Generally good at throwing the ball to the right player.
Excellent short accuracy (could be product of offense), very good intermediate accuracy, and solid deep accuracy (usually a size or speed advantage - but fast WRs are short).
Can throw accurate touch passes as needed, short and deep.
Very quick release.
Great height, looks at least 6'3.5 (listed as 6'4, but I never trust that).
High release point (actually could release it higher, given his size. The overall result is that it is high off the ground)
Great straight ahead speed, long strides (Ran for an 86 yard TD... just to prove that wasn't a fluke, he ran for another 70+ yarder in the Spring game). Good burst and agility, looks like a smooth athlete rather than exceptionally explosive.


Cons:
Throwing motion reminds me of David Carr's a little too much, a little low and a little bit of push movement to it.
Very skinny. Needs to add serious bulk to be a runner in the NFL, and needs to add at least 20lbs to even be taken seriously as a passer with scrambling ability.
Too often, throws a ball that lets the defender have a shot at the pick. Usually due to relying on his arm strength.
Could go through reads quicker, although not that slow by any means.
Do not play the Robin Sherbatsky drinking game during a lengthy Mariota interview.
Footwork throwing the ball is fine, footwork setting up to throw could be a problem in the NFL.
System is not at all like NFL system.
Team is significantly better (faster) than opponents.

That sounds better than a lot of QBs that get drafted early. Certainly, he's a smarter choice than Kirk Cousins or Nick Foles. Heck, you might be able to make the case that he's better than Tannehill was - sadly, better at reading defenses (though, again, Mariota's weight is a no-go for any kind of serious NFL investment). But, yeah, he's not Stafford, Bradford, Newton, Luck, or RG3 as a prospect.

Oh yeah. He's a rFr. He certainly compares well to Luck and Bradford as rFr and to RG3 at a Fr. Not sure about Stafford or Newton, since Stafford took over midway and Newton didn't play. That's where a lot of the excitement is coming from.

In terms of tools, it's all there for Mariota to go #1. He's got more talent than Luck or Bradford, but less than RG3 or Newton. The big thing for him will be adding weight - he's not going anywhere near the top at 6'4 200 - I am assuming that he's a skinny twig at least partially because he's a rFr. He will also need to tighten up his mechanics (which will be the last step for his accuracy) and stop making the (relatively few, but too many to go #1) overly brave throws. Given the team he is on, he will need to continue to produce very efficiently. And, being a QB, he'll need to show great leadership credentials to go high in the draft. So it'll take some improvement and some time, but I think the physical package and the current level of play make Mariota as good a #1 overall pick prospect as any freshman QB.

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Sarlacc, on comparing .NET to Soccer: And why not? It's a bunch of people running around in circles, feigning pain, and never scoring.

Good post Kyle. Thanks for putting a little more depth into it then just my "i watch him play i know how good he is" scouting report.

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