SalishHawkFan":2hlz0003 said:
good writeup kearly. Thanks. What's interesting to me about the WR situation is when I look at our WR's DVOA's. Harvin's best year ever was only equal to Baldwin's rookie year. Baldwin was injured much of last season so it will be interesting to see how he looks if he stays healthy all year. Tate, meanwhile, was the 4th best WR per DVOA in the entire NFL last season. Rice was 12th, I think. If you go by DVOA's, Tate's the main man and the fight for the third spot is between Baldwin and Harvin. Obviously, that isn't the case, but it will be interesting to see how it plays out in camp. Last year we had a 3 headed QB competition. This year we have quite the WR competition. This one should prove far less controversial.
I'm not exactly sure how they calculate DVOA for receivers, but I'd guess two factors weigh very highly:
#1: Yards per target.
#2: First downs / Touchdowns.
Danario Alexander just edged out Golden Tate for being the NFL's top WR in yards per target last season. He ends up #1 in DVOA.
In the case of Harvin, most of his catches were at the line of scrimmage and that tanks his yards per target number. Further, he was catching passes from a bad quarterback with a very weak arm. IIRC, Harvin only had something like 2 catches for 20+ yards in the air last season out of 60+ grabs. That's going to tank his yards per target too.
Also, it's hard to get in the end zone or to the first down marker when you are catching the football at the line of scrimmage.
I'm not saying that DVOA is a bad stat for WRs, I just think Harvin's value goes beyond his numbers. A bubble screen to Harvin is basically a rush attempt, but with a higher average of yards gained. If team's give Harvin space for those screens, Seattle's extremely efficient offense will have an even easier time setting up manageable 3rd downs and converting them.