Defense better than thought? Interesting analysis from PFF

[Milehighhawk]

They played better but I seriously doubt they’re better than 25 other units. When they get everyone healthy they could take a big jump.

Just watched the Monday night games and no one can cover and no one has a healthy secondary. It’s epidemic.

In the end, the best defense is the one that keeps the opposition from scoring more than their offense can score.

The Chiefs gave up 172 passing yards with a 4.4 yard per attempt average and took away three interceptions. They gave up 10 points.

The Packers gave up 249 passing yards with a 5.8 yard per attempt average. They gave up 16 points.

The Seahawks average across four games is just over 400 yards per game allowed with a 7.8 yard average per attempt. They gave up an average of over 27 points.

These two games do not demonstrate an "epidemic" at all, especially compared to what the Seahawks defense is allowing.

Holy false equivalency Batman.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Turnovers and run D have been good to great....and if we can get Dunbar and Adams back, then I think the pass D continues to improve.

The elephant in the room remains the pass rush, and not sure there's a fix for that, or any amount of development for the current players on the roster.

BUT, if Russell and the offense continue to play at their high level and the pass D improves with guys coming back? Then I think we can continue to win despite the pass rush being terrible.

 

[bmorepunk]

Holy false equivalency Batman.

Elaborate.

 

[Own The West]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team/_/view/defense/table/passing/sort/totalPointsPerGame/dir/asc

I see them as the 21st defense in the league. (They don't give W's for yards.)

I think we're going to start seeing scores dropping now that "pre-season" is over and less coverages are getting blown.

I also think we're going to see a lot more 2-high looks until Dunbar gets back or Flowers gains some confidence.

 

[Polk738]

I think it really has a lot to do with just a combination of different starters in the secondary an the communication issues they're having, you need to remember, Dunbar is new to our system and Diggs hasn't played a full season with the team yet, This is the same for Adams and Ryan Neal as well, I believe they'll get better the more they play together, it's pretty evident with the turnovers they are getting-Shaquille Griffin obviously had a self reflection moment after the Dallas game because that was the best I've seen him play in quite awhile. The run D is almost night and day compared to last year, pass rush is slightly improving-I'd say they've been responsible for the INTs over the last couple of games.

 

[Milehighhawk]

Holy false equivalency Batman.

Elaborate.

My apologies for the short quip, I should have elaborated to start with but was on my phone and should have just refrained from replying until I could write something proper.

What I mean is you can't simply compare one (or two in this case) team's single games to the Seahawks season average to make your argument look better. That is false equivalence. I'll set aside the reality that football doesn't have transitive properties that really support comparing stats due to the huge number of variables involved and just assume we can reasonably compare averages (even though we really can't). I'll just pick KC since you used them above and don't have time to dig into others and all the stats involved.


KC vs. the Pass through 4 games
130 attempts for 780 yds at 6.5 yds/attempt

Sea vs. the Pass through 4 games
200 attempts for 1604 yds at 8.2 yds/attempt

KC vs. the Run through 4 games
122 attempts for 644 yds at 5.3 ypc

Sea vs. the Run through 4 games
89 attempts for 303 yds at 3.4 ypc

As you can see, Seattle gives up more than double the pass yards and a just under 2 more yards per attempt to the pass whereas KC gives up more than double the rush yards and just under 2 more yards per rush to the run. These are both 4-0 teams for a reason and it isn't because anyone is playing lock down defense right now on the whole. If KC doesn't shore up the run defense, they won't be able to stop anyone come the cold weather and if Seattle doesn't shore up its pass defense, it will also significantly hurt their chances to go deep in the playoffs. However, this is only 4 games into a really whacky start of the season, so we need to see a lot more football before making any prognostications.

 

[ivotuk]

Offensive scoring has been setting records this year. Why? Officiating. They aren't calling holding on OL unless it's egregious. No more 1st and 20 plays that Seattle used to get several times a game. Same for the other teams.

No holding calls equals QB with lots of time to throw, equals more TDs.

 

[Ad Hawk]

Holy false equivalency Batman.

Elaborate.

My apologies for the short quip, I should have elaborated to start with but was on my phone and should have just refrained from replying until I could write something proper.

What I mean is you can't simply compare one (or two in this case) team's single games to the Seahawks season average to make your argument look better. That is false equivalence. I'll set aside the reality that football doesn't have transitive properties that really support comparing stats due to the huge number of variables involved and just assume we can reasonably compare averages (even though we really can't). I'll just pick KC since you used them above and don't have time to dig into others and all the stats involved.


KC vs. the Pass through 4 games
130 attempts for 780 yds at 6.5 yds/attempt

Sea vs. the Pass through 4 games
200 attempts for 1604 yds at 8.2 yds/attempt

KC vs. the Run through 4 games
122 attempts for 644 yds at 5.3 ypc

Sea vs. the Run through 4 games
89 attempts for 303 yds at 3.4 ypc

As you can see, Seattle gives up more than double the pass yards and a just under 2 more yards per attempt to the pass whereas KC gives up more than double the rush yards and just under 2 more yards per rush to the run. These are both 4-0 teams for a reason and it isn't because anyone is playing lock down defense right now on the whole. If KC doesn't shore up the run defense, they won't be able to stop anyone come the cold weather and if Seattle doesn't shore up its pass defense, it will also significantly hurt their chances to go deep in the playoffs. However, this is only 4 games into a really whacky start of the season, so we need to see a lot more football before making any prognostications.

You make a strong case for using statistics carefully, contextually, and maybe even conservatively. Sample size matters, as do all the variables of every game (injuries/health, weather, travel-distance, etc.). Too often when people throw out a stat as "fact," they are ignoring other data that adds caveats to the use of that so-called fact.

But it is all these variables that makes football such an intriguing game to watch and attempt to analyze. I appreciate everyone here who raises our game on this board; thanks, Milehigh for doing that here.

 

[LTH]

I can never remember a time when conventional statistics or even conventional thinking applied to Pete Carroll.. from the draft to FA to scheme... just my take..

LTH

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Fortunately, they are 4-0. Regardless how much people want to downplay it...…
They get it done their way, how the fans feel about it means nothing. The only stat that matters is that Win/Loss record.

 

[chris98251]

I look at it right now as a feel good moment, but it means nothing and can be 4 and 4 in a blink of an eye. Great for our positioning but now things begin to mean something going forward.