Does Macdonald keep Geno?

[Rat]

Why not sign Jake Browning? Won’t be too expensive. Has the UW homecoming thing (which hasn’t been a storyline here forever).

He went 4-5 but had a 70% completion rating, so kind of exactly what we were paying Geno to do, but at 1/3 the price

We'd have to trade for him (he's an ERFA). He proved to be a reliable backup, so he's not going to go for nothing.

 

[Jac]

Problem is with a QB out of his depth the rest of the team don't develop just look at teams like the Jets and the Browns in recent years throwing rookie and back-up QB into the starting roll failing for years to get a team capable of a winning record. And a lot of the rookies there were getting were top

Keep Geno, draft a rookie as back-up, give them a year to learn the system and practise with the team and hopefully in 2025 we will have someone able to cope with leading the team. The team will only develop behind a decent QB.

It's likely going to be a new offense for Geno...so depending on who that rookie QB is, you may not get that much lift.

 

[hieroglyphics]

If we could get him cheap, I'd be on board. He played well enough last season that it might require a similar contract to Geno's.

I doubt it, look around the league, most teams without a top 10 starter are either locked into an expensive contract which isn’t paying off (Watson, RW, Carr, Daniel Jones, Stafford, Kyler, etc), or are stuck with a young project QB who they sunk too much draft capital into (Carolina, Pittsburgh, Indy) to justify signing a Browning level player. Then you’re left with like the Pats & Falcons who are guaranteed to draft someone in the 1st round. It’s any guess what the Bucs, Commanders, or Vikings do but they only soften the market because they’re more likely to bring back their current starter than overhaul for a successful backup.

The bargaining power is entirely on Seattle’s side with Geno & Geno-like alternatives.

 

[hieroglyphics]

We'd have to trade for him (he's an ERFA). He proved to be a reliable backup, so he's not going to go for nothing.

That’s fine, we should flip them something for him, we could use the massive savings cutting ties with Geno for free agents.

 

[Sun Tzu]

Post June 1st cut saves more cap money for some reason.

Geno Smith Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap

Geno Smith contract and salary cap details, including signing bonus, guaranteed salary, dead money, roster bonuses, and contract history

overthecap.com

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Do you seriously not know? This explains so much!

 

[xray]

It's Smith's job to lose . I think they might try to stay with Lock too , this next season . The new HC & Co. will start to iron out some other areas of immediate need . Nobody should be concerned about playoffs this next season . The 2025 & 2026 seasons are the target for the next Hawks run . imo

 

[Ozzy]

Also wasnt asked directly, but he finished the year ranked 13th, with an OC who was let go, an O line that finished the season 27th and that was a MASH unit all year, and a running game that was 29th. To say nothing for a defense that rarely gave the O opportunities.

Last year, he finished 9th.

So with 2 years worth of data, with both years relying on Waldron calling plays, a horrible o line, little running game and crap for defense, if you average the two years, hes been the 11th best QB in the league.

Thats not opinion. Thats where he finished despite the poor support noted, which is also fact.

His salary rank? 12th among starters.

Hes literally the definition of 'good value', and just outside the 'top 10' category.

I dont know who these 'other' qbs are that can just come and do what Geno has. I posted in another thread that there isnt another qb in the league that performed as well as Geno did with the running game and O line he had. Not one. And thats also fact.

Who?
Gardener Minshew?
Joshua Dobbs?
Justin Fields?
Alex OConnel?
Matt Jones
D Ridder?

Drew Lock? I don't see how anyone coukd watch the two games he played last year and think we'd be better off with him or even as good. Drew has talent but is still raw, predisposed to being fooled by simple defense, and doesn't play the game with awareness remotely close to Geno's. O love his arm talent, and willingness to sling the ball. But from a reliable xs and os perspective? Mac's first likely priority on offense will be making sure we are a reliable and consistent unit. That's Geno all day over Lock. And I have nothing against Drew at all. I think he's still got potential.

Thats the quality of 'starter' that finished below Geno last year thats likely available to us without a stupid trade( fields being the exception) And none of them with the exception of Minshew finished close to Geno or have ever posted back to back seasons like his last 2.

Gardener Minshew is going to win us more games than Geno? I think not.

So to move on from him is to literally say ' winning isn't important'. His salary isn't out of whack and is priced exactly where his performance has been, with a pretty pathetic supporting cast in blocking and rushing. He is the most logical player to have at the position given his familiarity with the team and rapport with his offensive teammates.

And MacDonald is the guy JS picked not just for his ability to scheme and coach defense. There's a pretty good article that documents his knowledge of offense based on everything he's learned in designing ways to stop high powered units like SF and LA. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he feels as though he's stepped into Christmas morning with the players we have on O... especially Geno, because Mac is a guy who obviously gets complimentary ball, and knows exactly how to leverage players on the O side to exploit today's defenses. And we have way more than enough in the cupboard to do that.

We've just been playing stupid offense for the last few years under Waldron.

This team is set on O, save for O line. Focus on the D and grab a QB if one falls to you tah you like, but not to start in 2024.

when you say finshed 11th what metric are you using? Most of the EPA stuff had him 15-16th last year. Still better than people realize I'm guessing but not really just outside the top 10? I think anywhere in the 12-20 range is probably reasonable and I have him around 15 or so. A good QB but you're paying him 30 million and if you can get Lock to be in that 15-20 range, use that money on other areas you may be better overall? It's at least a discussion. I'm totally good if the OC, Coach, John or whoever says lets roll with Geno because he can play at a high level and we need to fix other stuff. I'm fascinated to see how it plays out because it really could go a few different ways. I trust the staff to get it right.

I wouldn't rule out a Minshew or whoever to be able to do what Geno did though. No one thought Geno would do what he did either yet he proved people wrong.

 

[Ozzy]

It's no secret that JS is not a big Geno fan. It was PC's call all the way with Geno. Just listen to JS's ringing endorsement of Geno when he last spoke of him.

But I'm sure JS will defer to MacDonald if he wants to keep him around for awhile. If I had to bet, however, I say they go with Locke and release or trade Geno, and draft a potential QBOTF in the draft next spring.

John seemed pretty lukewarm on Geno at the end of the year presser. I was a little surprised by it to be honest.

 

[Maelstrom787]

How many qb's wouldn't be able to put up 1 td and a couple hundred yards per game? Is that really such a high bar? Come on man.

....many of them, according to an extremely surface level view of the overall league passing stats?

 

[WarHawks]

I could see keeping Geno around a year as a stopgap, but if it's any more than that, I'd be worried. At some point you have to rip the band aid off.

 

[Parallax]

It's Smith's job to lose . I think they might try to stay with Lock too , this next season . The new HC & Co. will start to iron out some other areas of immediate need . Nobody should be concerned about playoffs this next season . The 2025 & 2026 seasons are the target for the next Hawks run . imo

It's not his to lose if he's already been cut. Remember the deadline coming up five days after the Superbowl. My guess he isn't cut but rather held out as trade bait. But if I were GM, I'd just cut him to avoid the risk of getting stuck with that contract.

 

[olyfan63]

I hope the team signs Lock to a backup level contract (5M? I think he was 4M last season) with starter performance incentives that get him to 10-15M, maybe along the lines of $5M bonus if he starts over half the games, and another $5M if the team wins half or more of his starts. That's for either outcome, Geno released, or Geno stays.

My straw man is that the team then releases Geno, and puts the cap savings into upgrade-level free agents for some of the underperformers on the team, e.g., upgrades at 2-4 positions. I think Lock is "close enough" to Geno, maybe we lose 2 games Geno would have won because of Lock's below-Geno play, except 1 of those is a win because of the 2-4 upgrades at assorted positions. So net loss of 1 more game, which just gives us slightly better draft position anyway for the rebuild. Also consider that Lock might turn a corner if the team gets a QB-whisperer type OC and QB coach, and play well to where it would be a wash on the W/L front.

Honestly, I'm good with whichever path the team takes on this. Mac will have his take on Geno and Lock and QBs in the draft in due time. I trust his and JS's decision process will be better than my limited-data take. And maybe his OC will be on board to have input on the decision.

 

[Titus Pullo]

Do you seriously not know? This explains so much!

Seahawks Face Penalties by Cutting or Trading Geno Smith​

Following his Pro Bowl and Comeback Player of the Year season in 2022, Smith signed a three-year, $75 million deal with the Seahawks. With two years left on his deal, there will be penalties if Seattle moves on from the 33-year-old quarterback early.

If the Seahawks release Smith before June 1, they’ll absorb a $17.4 million dead cap hit. If they designate him as a post-June 1 cut, the dead cap hit shrinks to just $8.7 million while saving $22.5 million. That would seem to be the more feasible route if Seattle were to truly move on from Smith while selecting a rookie quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Seahawks Star 'Could Be Cut' in $14 Million Move: Analyst

The Seattle Seahawks could make a big move in the offseason, by considering moving on from Geno Smith.

heavy.com

 

[Chukarhawk]

Depends on priorities and cap space. Can you get a QB from the draft that will be able to start and allow you the extra cap room to start fixing the trenches? Does Penix fall far enough to make that happen? Penix will be a successful NFL QB. It is known. Im fine ether way. If we keep Geno and the defense becomes a top 5 defense? Do it.
My bet is they move on from Geno and start fresh.

 

[Parallax]

John seemed pretty lukewarm on Geno at the end of the year presser. I was a little surprised by it to be honest.

Not me. I've been surprised by how much Pete valued Geno and his unwillingness to give Lock a real chance, though clearly most of the fan base agreed with him. Lock may never process fast enough but he has the physical tools. How ya gonna find out unless he's given a chance in real games? I thought this last season was the perfect opportunity to give him a shot, particularly once Geno went down. But Pete was all about Pete coming back for another year so everything was in on that. That's why we traded a second and a fifth for a 10 game Williams rental.

As far as I'm concerned, Pete has pretty much burned his bridges. I'm not going to be contributing to any Seattle Times thank you ads or showing up at the stadium to celebrate the good years. Not anytime soon anyway. As far as I'm concerned, Pete's ego has already gotten its due. Now we're paying off the mortgage.

 

[Parallax]

Depends on priorities and cap space. Can you get a QB from the draft that will be able to start and allow you the extra cap room to start fixing the trenches? Does Penix fall far enough to make that happen? Penix will be a successful NFL QB. It is known. Im fine ether way. If we keep Geno and the defense becomes a top 5 defense? Do it.
My bet is they move on from Geno and start fresh.

We don't know if he'll be successful. In 2021, ten guys went in the first round and none of them have really proven themselves. Lawrence is the only one who's likely to and he was said to be a generational, once every 25 years, kind of talent. Penix is nowhere near that. He's got a great arm, yes. But there are a lot of aspects of the game that could trip him up. We saw it in the Michigan game. When facing consistent pressure, as he will in the NFL, his accuracy vanishes. Any team that hopes to be successful with that guy under center better have a great line.

 

[renofox]

Post June 1st cut saves more cap money for some reason.

Geno Smith Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap

Geno Smith contract and salary cap details, including signing bonus, guaranteed salary, dead money, roster bonuses, and contract history

overthecap.com

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overthecap.com is wrong on this. It does not account for Geno's salary becoming guaranteed 2/16ish (this is semi-new information). The post-6/1 designation cannot be used until the new league year, 3/13ish.

He can be released before the salary is guaranteed, which means 2025 dead money accelerates into 2024.

Or he can be traded between 3/14 and 3/16 (the date his ~9.5M roster bonus is due) and the guaranteed salary (~12.3M) transfers to the new team. The post-6/1 can be used in this case.

If he's still on the roster 3/16 then he probably is here to stay since the roster bonus, which is almost half his 2024 earnings, has already been paid.

 

[pittpnthrs]

It's no secret that JS is not a big Geno fan. It was PC's call all the way with Geno. Just listen to JS's ringing endorsement of Geno when he last spoke of him.

But I'm sure JS will defer to MacDonald if he wants to keep him around for awhile. If I had to bet, however, I say they go with Locke and release or trade Geno, and draft a potential QBOTF in the draft next spring.

You know, thinking about it, the Hawks will never get more for Geno than right now. I guess releasing him does make some sense.

 

[NoGain]

John seemed pretty lukewarm on Geno at the end of the year presser. I was a little surprised by it to be honest.

I believe JS always wanted Locke until the next real thing. Yeah, he was definitely lukewarm on Geno during that presser, almost as if he was setting it up to release or trade him. We'll see...

 

[Lagartixa]

Post June 1st cut saves more cap money for some reason.

Geno Smith Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap

Geno Smith contract and salary cap details, including signing bonus, guaranteed salary, dead money, roster bonuses, and contract history

overthecap.com

View attachment 64261

View attachment 64260

Designating a player as a post-June 1 cut (which I think can be done with up to two players each season) allows the dead money to be split between two seasons. If Smith is cut and not designated as a post-June 1 cut, then there's $17.4M in dead money on the 2024 cap. If he is designated as a post-June 1 cut, then $8.7M of the dead money falls on the 2024 cap and the remaining $8.7M falls on the 2025 cap.

There is some real savings there, but it's not close to the $8.7M difference that shows up on OverTheCap's web pages. It's a little hard to calculate exactly how much, but it's a lot less. The savings come from an NFL-modified version of the "time value of money." There's the usual "I would gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today" time value of money (a dollar you have today is worth more than a dollar you'll receive in a year), and that's increased by the fact that NFL salary caps are still rising, so taking $8.7M of the dead cap and pushing it back to 2025, when the cap is very likely be higher than in 2024, makes those $8.7M hurt just a little less.

Personally, I think the Seahawks' best move is to roll with Smith for 2024 while looking for some other guy who can be good but not great for a well-below-league-average QB cap hit ("the next Smith"), but that could change depending on other moves the Seahawks make. If the Seahawks are going to cut Smith, they'll have to see if there are other players who would save them more by having a chunk of their dead money pushed back a year. I figure Jamal Adams is extremely likely to be so designated. In his case, it comes out to exactly half too, but the numbers are bigger. It's $20,833,334 of dead money if he's cut and not designated as a post-June 1 cut, and it's half that in 2024 and half in 2025 if he is. The $16.5M in 2024 cap savings by designating him as a post-June 1 cut will help a lot. The Seahawks won't need to use a post-June 1 designation on Diggs or Dissly, but I fully expect both of them to be gone (or Dissly possibly renegotiated).

EDITED TO ADD: @renofox is right that this doesn't take into account the fact that Smith's 2024 salary becomes fully guaranteed in February, before the start of the new league year in mid-March, and therefore before Seahawks can use the post-June 1 designation.

The whole "post-June-1" thing is pretty bizarre. I still really dislike the Broncos from the Seahawks' days in the AFC West, so I was loving that the Broncos would have to guarantee Wilson's $37M 2025 salary if he's still on their roster at the end of the fifth day of the league year, which will be St. Patrick's Day. I thought that meant they were going to have to eat the full $85M in dead money in 2024, which would have been devastating for them and delicious for me. But it turns out they can designate him as a post-June 1 cut but simultaneously have him considered not to be on their roster on March 17. Whut?!
Oh well, the $35.4M in dead 2024 cap and $49.6M in dead 2025 cap is pretty nice too. It just seems weird that he'll be in a "Schrödinger's overpaid QB" quantum superposition where he's both still on their roster until after June 1 and not on their roster on March 17.