FootballOutsiders: It's time to talk about Geno Smith

[Lagartixa]

It's Time to Talk About Geno Smith

The film from Sunday's Seattle Seahawks win shows that Geno Smith's numbers are no fluke. The Detroit Lions, meanwhile, should be farther along in their rebuild by now.

www.footballoutsiders.com

 

[Lagartixa]

Hilarious comments below that article from a Broncos fan and a FO regular:

 

[sdog1981]

Hilarious comments below that article from a Broncos fan and a FO regular:

View attachment 54846

This might be the best part of the whole trade.

 

[toffee]

From this article:
The one pass he threw 50 yards downfield was actually 60-plus air yards. Geno threw the ball with his front heel on his own 45-yard line, and the ball hits DK Metcalf in the hands 4 or 5 yards deep into the end zone. Metcalf is draped in double coverage by the time the ball gets to him, yet the throw is placed in a spot only Metcalf could come up with it.

On distance alone, this is a pass few quarterbacks can throw. Throwing it in-time with this level of accuracy truncates that list even further. Had it not fallen through Metcalf's outstretched gloves, that might have been an early candidate for Throw of the Year. (I'd nominate it for Catch of the Year, too, but nobody's coming close to George Pickens' Thursday night snag.)

 

[DarkVictory23]

It's actually kind of like a Seahawks day over at FO. They've got no less than 3 articles talking specifically about the Seahawks offense (though the one about our Offensive DVOA predicts us regressing, so one of the three isn't as positive as the other two).

 

[Mike D in 332]

We are back on a roller coaster! This week was the downhill ride through the loopty loop! Let’s hope we can maintain the speed!!!!

 

[hoxrox]

FO put out a video about the offense too. One guy thinks the performance is fluky and not sustainable. His reasoning isn't very good though.

 

[toffee]

FO put out a video about the offense too. One guy thinks the performance is fluky and not sustainable. His reasoning isn't very good though.

Nay sayers have their logic too. I think Geno is like having his Cinderella moment, and some 12s, like toffee, are enjoying the ride on his pumpkin carriage. Some others, for whatever reason, refuse to get onboard. My logic is simple, enjoy the moment, story like a #33 rank QB rise to #1 rank after 4 games are few and far in between, normally only happened in movies.

ENJOY the heck out of the moment, in life nothing last for ever, enjoy the present let John and Pete worry about the future.

 

[hoxrox]

For sure, you have to enjoy this storyline, in what would otherwise be an abysmal season.

The question is, how long can it last? Is the offense sustainable? Will defenses watch film and figure it out? Or will the offense continue to be multiple, and surprise us each week?

 

[ivotuk]

I was a fan of his when he was coming out of West Virginia.

Over 4 years in college, he averaged 67.4 completion percentage, 8.0 yards per attempt, and a 98 TD to 21 INT ratio!

But then the Jets drafted him, and tried to ruin him. KJ Wright on the radio couple of weeks ago was predicting this. “I’ve seen the man throw, he’s good!”

Podcast Results - Seattle Sports

sports.mynorthwest.com

Geno Smith College Stats, School, Draft, Gamelog, Splits | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

Check out Geno Smith's College Stats, School, Draft, Gamelog, Splits and More College Stats at Sports-Reference.com

www.sports-reference.com

 

[toffee]

I was a fan of his when he was coming out of West Virginia.

Over 4 years in college, he averaged 67.4 completion percentage, 8.0 yards per attempt, and a 98 TD to 21 INT ratio!

But then the Jets drafted him, and tried to ruin him. KJ Wright on the radio couple of weeks ago was predicting this. “I’ve seen the man throw, he’s good!”

Podcast Results - Seattle Sports

sports.mynorthwest.com

Geno Smith College Stats, School, Draft, Gamelog, Splits | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

Check out Geno Smith's College Stats, School, Draft, Gamelog, Splits and More College Stats at Sports-Reference.com

www.sports-reference.com

KJ also said Geno has canon for an arm, seeing the Geno throw a 60 air yards pass with accuracy, KJ's on point. I must confess that I thought Geno had a noodle or so so arm, Lock has that canon and uber athletic, that was before I checked up on their measurables, Geno's arm or ball velocity was higher than Lock, on par with Russ, and his athleticism was on par with Russ'.

 

[Ozzy]

Geno deserves a ton of credit. He has been light years better than I thought he would be. I still think its way too early to call this a win and I'm skeptical but its at least fun for now.

 

[DarkVictory23]

FO put out a video about the offense too. One guy thinks the performance is fluky and not sustainable. His reasoning isn't very good though.

His reasoning isn't too terrible. It's what you'd expect from a statistician trying to look at this from a numbers perspective. He sees an event occur (team is much better offensively than projected), he looks at how that event typically plays out (team regresses back to projection), and therefore a safe/reasonable prediction is that it will repeat this time.


That said, I think there are reasons why we can at least hold out some hope/expectation that this might not be the case for us.

First, our OL seems to be improved. An improved OL is as solid as an upgrade you can make for expecting continued increased performance. It doesn't require a fancy scheme to work or skill players to produce at unsustainable levels above the norm. It just makes everything your offense needs to do a little bit easier.

Second, our offense was probably ranked far too low by their projections to begin with. Our offense finished strong last year. I think the overall assumption in their projections (as with many) was to look at how we were as a team over the course of the year, knock us down a peg for losing Russ, and then that was their projection for the year going forward but I think there were indications in how we played last year in the final games that this offense had potential to actually be quite good if our QB was on the same page as our coaches, which brings me to...

Finally, they simply overestimated what value Russ brought to the team and assumed that switching to Geno was an automatic downgrade. As they mention, a team that is vastly underperforming their Offensive DVOA projections is the Broncos. In fact, I believe our biggest issue as an offense was a QB who refused to work in concert with the rest of the team. By dumping Russ, we dropped our biggest liability (no matter how talented) on offense. I expected our offense to improve, but the FO folks--perhaps reasonably--did not.

 

[SmokinHawk]

I've been watching really closely and Geno is doing awesome. At times he is jumping off the screen. I just did not expect him to be so accurate but dude is throwing god damned lasers out there.

He is hitting the short and intermediate over-the-middle stuff that Russell always struggled with.

 

[Ruminator]

Just a few more good games, plus some periodic slamming of a MS Surface tablet to the ground in frustration, and whoa, it's GOAT #2!

 

[CalgaryFan05]

I was a fan of his when he was coming out of West Virginia.

Over 4 years in college, he averaged 67.4 completion percentage, 8.0 yards per attempt, and a 98 TD to 21 INT ratio!

But then the Jets drafted him, and tried to ruin him. KJ Wright on the radio couple of weeks ago was predicting this. “I’ve seen the man throw, he’s good!”

Podcast Results - Seattle Sports

sports.mynorthwest.com

Geno Smith College Stats, School, Draft, Gamelog, Splits | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

Check out Geno Smith's College Stats, School, Draft, Gamelog, Splits and More College Stats at Sports-Reference.com

www.sports-reference.com

This.

He puts in the work. That's evident. He cares. That's evident. How long will it last? I dunno - as long as PC and Waldron and Geno having a love fest that we actually have a quarterback that will work within the system.

Instead of having a 'franchice' (read: princess. fairy princess. douchebag. also: person who requires everything to be arranged around them) - brady... anyone... mahomes.... anyone... mahomes wife.... omg... anyone... rodgers..... anyone....

Gimmie a utilitarian with an axe to grind any Fing day of the week. We'll see how long it lasts - but I don't get 1 molecule of ego from Geno. I get a dude with a chance in a system that's working who's grateful for the chance.

And, like Dissly TD's - that's a good thing. I don't care how long it lasts - but I know there's no infighting.

Geno for Fing prez. I'm gonna have the tshirt made up.

 

[Chukarhawk]

hes just not accurate with his long passes. zero touch. very accurate inside 20 yards.

 

[scutterhawk]

FO put out a video about the offense too. One guy thinks the performance is fluky and not sustainable. His reasoning isn't very good though.

^^^JOHNNY CRAB-APPLESEED^^^
I don't give one crap about their negative bullsh*t
Defenses are going to ALSO have to "Figure it out" and adjust for the uptick in Geno's GROWTH & continuity with his TE's, WR's & RB Targets, along with his O-Line, & scheme adjustments, sounds a hell of a lot easier that it really is.
I'm absolutely positive that Detroit's Defensive Coach had also watched the successes that both 49'rs & Falcons defenses were having against Geno & the Argonauts in the two weeks prior.
I believe the Aint's are going to be facing a somewhat different Offensive scheme than what Waldron had put forward for the Lions/Falcons/9rs & Donkos.
FO can wet blanket all they want, I on the other hand am going to ride with the good vibes that Geno & the Seahawks have laid down, until someone PROVES beyond a shadow of doubt that Geno, DK, Lockett, Penny and all the TE's ain't all that.
DEFENSIVELY?, yeah, now that is a whole another gig & I get that.

 

[Polk738]

I think defenses will eventually figure him out, but there isn't a whole lot of tape on Geno right now and I can see things like the three TE sets throwing off defenses because we've never really ran those kinds of formations before.

 

[DarkVictory23]

hes just not accurate with his long passes. zero touch. very accurate inside 20 yards.

I'm just saying...